Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

More background on the ruling:

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http://www.jsonline.com/news/usandworld/national/austria-court-overturns-presidential-elections-calls-rerun-mjsurnpublicidaporge20b05d2b52c4df9bccf8d-385185291.html

[Tender Branson]

The ruling led to pretty mixed results among some of my FPÖ-voting co-workers and family members ... My Hofer-voting mum said she was annoyed by the re-vote and by the costs (estimated at another 40 million €), while some of my co-workers were thrilled at the news of the re-vote.

I guess VdB will still win rather easily, because his supporters seem to be more energized while many Hofer-voters will be pissed off and stay home ...

[Tender Branson]

For the re-vote, the Interior Minister has invited OSCE election observers to the 15 or so districts who were blamed by the Court for "heavy sloppiness" in the postal vote counting ...

[rob in cal]

   Of course who knows what will be happening politically by the time the revote takes place. Perhaps there will be a new spike of migrants, or maybe the migrant level will really be stabilizing at the governments new target. The one scenario would help Hofer, the other VDB. 

[Tender Branson]

For the next 3 months, Austria will have its first female President (even if she's just acting President):



Those are the 3 interim Presidents: Norbert Hofer (FPÖ), Doris Bures (SPÖ), Karl-Heinz Kopf (ÖVP)

[Tender Branson]

No idea the Austrian Constitutional Court was such a joke.

Nah... a few years ago for example they struck down the government's mass surveillance of people (the mass collection of internet and phone data).

[Tender Branson]

Both camps say they will keep a low-key campaign and limit it to roughly 2 weeks before the new election date. If the new election date is early October, that means the campaign will start in mid-September. An earlier start of the campaign makes no sense anyway, because of the school holidays which end in mid-September and nobody is paying attention during the school holidays.

[MaxQue]

Time for EU sanctions until a reform of the Constitutionnal Court and full replacement of judges.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

FREEDOM ISN'T FREE! The costs must be endured to stop the fringe left.

[Tender Branson]

FREEDOM ISN'T FREE! The costs must be endured to stop the fringe left.

Hmmmm ... this ruling wasn't against VdB and the "left".

It was actually directed against the Interior Ministry and certain individuals in certain districts who decided to not follow the strict vote-counting guidelines that are needed in a democracy, something that voters fully expect (and rightly so). Instead they decided to be lazy and sloppy and now the nation needs to "pay the price" for it.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

For the next 3 months, Austria will have its first female President (even if she's just acting President):

Not quite. Barbara Prammer was the first in 2004, between Klestil's death and Fischer's inauguration, thought it was just for two days, She was, however, Second President of the National Council, while Buges is President, but I don't see much distinction between powers of the three.

[Classic Conservative]

All I can say is lol. VdB should win this easily.

[President Johnson]

Right decision, though I was in favor of Van der Bellen. Hope he does it again!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You people do realise that a 100% accurate count across a whole country is actually impossible?

[Dutch Conservative]

You people do realise that a 100% accurate count across a whole country is actually impossible?

Have you read the ruling? That's not the point actually.

I'm having a hard time understanding the court-bashing here. Who can possibly be in favor of a flawed electionprocess? It's not about vdB or Hofer, it's about the process stupid.

[Tender Branson]

You people do realise that a 100% accurate count across a whole country is actually impossible?

That was not the problem. The count itself was 100% accurate and the Court did not find evidence of even a single vote being manipulated, etc.

The problem was the lax handling of the vote count by some election officials, such as:

* postal votes opened and counted on Sunday (election law says no earlier than 9am Monday)
* in some cases the votes were counted by people not belonging to the election commission
* in some cases, not all members of the election commission were present
* in some cases, only a member of the ÖVP counted all votes and the other commission members from the other parties just arrived later, signed that they were present and simply trusted the ÖVP-guy that he counted everything properly etc. etc.

[Tender Branson]

Interior Minister Sobotka has presented several election law fixes (which will likely be passed in parliament after the runoff):

* mandatory schooling of election officials so they have a clue of the election law and not just sit nearby the voters and tick them off and come and leave when they want to

* postal votes being counted on Sunday evening already

* universal opening and closing times for precincts

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer re-newed his support for an "Auxit" referendum, for example in case EU-leaders allow Turkey to become a member state. He said the EU is currently badly in need of reform, because it does not connect with average people anymore ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You people do realise that a 100% accurate count across a whole country is actually impossible?

That was not the problem. The count itself was 100% accurate and the Court did not find evidence of even a single vote being manipulated, etc.

The problem was the lax handling of the vote count by some election officials, such as:

* postal votes opened and counted on Sunday (election law says no earlier than 9am Monday)
* in some cases the votes were counted by people not belonging to the election commission
* in some cases, not all members of the election commission were present
* in some cases, only a member of the ÖVP counted all votes and the other commission members from the other parties just arrived later, signed that they were present and simply trusted the ÖVP-guy that he counted everything properly etc. etc.

In which case punish those officials and municipalities concerned, but don't overturn the result. A principle of English (and also Scottish) electoral law that should be adopted everywhere is that the result should only be overturned if whatever the complaint is about could have changed the outcome. This is an egregious waste of public money.

[Tender Branson]

You people do realise that a 100% accurate count across a whole country is actually impossible?

That was not the problem. The count itself was 100% accurate and the Court did not find evidence of even a single vote being manipulated, etc.

The problem was the lax handling of the vote count by some election officials, such as:

* postal votes opened and counted on Sunday (election law says no earlier than 9am Monday)
* in some cases the votes were counted by people not belonging to the election commission
* in some cases, not all members of the election commission were present
* in some cases, only a member of the ÖVP counted all votes and the other commission members from the other parties just arrived later, signed that they were present and simply trusted the ÖVP-guy that he counted everything properly etc. etc.

In which case punish those officials and municipalities concerned, but don't overturn the result. A principle of English (and also Scottish) electoral law that should be adopted everywhere is that the result should only be overturned if whatever the complaint is about could have changed the outcome. This is an egregious waste of public money.

That is also the case with the Austrian law and Court rulings. And the Court found that the total number of votes impacted by the 14 districts with violations was 77.926 - while VdB's winning margin was just over 30.000 - which means the 77.926 votes would have theoretically been enough to swing the election ...

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

The date for the runoff re-vote will be released on Tuesday.

The usual 3 months of the election calendar apply of course, so it will be late September or early October.

[Tender Branson]

This is an egregious waste of public money.

True.

The additional cost is 10 million, plus the amount the Greens and FPÖ will spend (the FPÖ said they will spend 1.5-2 million, the Greens slightly less than that because VdB will rely more on donations from people).

Many people I have talked to are really concerned about the additional costs and it might be a reason for them not to vote at all in the re-vote.

[rob in cal]

   I like the idea of universal poll closing times.  Wish that was done immediately.

[Tender Branson]

Other consequences of the Court ruling:

* Until now, the Interior Ministry was able to submit precint data to "exit" pollster SORA starting as early as noon, so they can present their 1st election projections at 5pm. The Court ruled this unconstitutional, because submitting early precinct data could impact people who vote later. For example if an exit poll worker knows how a state voted at 3pm, he could tell a person who has not voted yet what the likely results are.

* This will have consequences for "exit" polls and first projections in the re-vote: SORA and the TV audience will have to wait longer for a 1st projection, because SORA will only get data from the Ministry after ALL polls have closed.

* Also, we'll NOT get an Austria-wide result on Sunday-evening this time, only on Monday evening when all the postal ballots are counted.

[Tender Branson]

  I like the idea of universal poll closing times.  Wish that was done immediately.

Yes, immediately. I have advocated this for years.

Same like in the US: The media already projects a winner on the East Coast, while people in California etc. are still voting. It impacts them when they know how the East has voted ...