Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

  I like the idea of universal poll closing times.  Wish that was done immediately.

The election law will be amended with reforms anyway after the re-vote.

There's broad support for this in parliament, basically all parties support the Interior Minister's and Court President's proposals.

But there's no time to do this before the re-vote, because the legislative process takes much longer to pass it.

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) is against the Interior Minister's proposal to invite OSCE election observers to the re-vote, saying it would "damage" Austria's image abroad ...

Link

That's crazy, because even in 2010 OSCE observers monitored the Presidential election after they were invited.

[rob in cal]

    I like limitations on exit polls.  Personally I don't like them at all, as they take a lot of the fun and drama away from the actual vote count itself. 

[Tender Branson]

According to newspapers, the government will set September 25 as the date for the re-vote.

[Tender Branson]

Do you guys think I should go back to precinct voting ?

In recent years, I have always voted by postal ballot and even the recent "controversy" surrounding the "complications" of counting them didn't bother me really. I'm about 100% certain they are counted the accurate way.

But I wonder if the Court ruling and the conspiracy theories that are spread by the FPÖ will result in fewer people requesting absentee ballots for the re-vote ...

[politicallefty]

I saw this in the news recently. With all due respect, I don't really follow Austrian politics. In any event, this seems like an absurd ruling designed to give the far-right another chance at winning. It seems like a bastardized Austrian version of Bush v. Gore in reverse.

To those in the know, what are the odds that Hofer wins now? Also, would he himself have the ability to force an "Auxit" referendum?

[Tender Branson]

I saw this in the news recently. With all due respect, I don't really follow Austrian politics. In any event, this seems like an absurd ruling designed to give the far-right another chance at winning. It seems like a bastardized Austrian version of Bush v. Gore in reverse.

To those in the know, what are the odds that Hofer wins now? Also, would he himself have the ability to force an "Auxit" referendum?

Nope, nothing was "designed" to give the Far-Right another chance. The Court is fully independent politically and it was a ruling against election procedures, not for or against a candidate or party.

Nobody really knows what the odds are for the candidates. It's like the Presidential election in North Carolina or something. But I guess VdB is favoured, because people see him as the rightful winner of the original runoff and most people know exactly that there were no manipulations.

On the other hand, Hofer/FPÖ could turn the re-vote into some kind of Brexit-style referendum, which could boost the Hofer-chances (... well, not really because Austrians are strongly against an Auxit).

Also, even if Hofer is elected President he still cannot initiate an Auxit referendum, because a referendum can only be initiated by the Parliament. The President's task is only to certify the results of the referendum with his signature.

[Tender Branson]

A good sign for Norbert Hofer would be the re-vote of the mayoral election in Hohenems last year, which was also ruled invalid by the Constitutional Court because the ÖVP-led city hall handed out several postal ballots to one person who said he'd deliver them (a postal ballot can only be handed out to the person who requested it).

In the actual mayoral runoff, the ÖVP-mayor defeated the FPÖ candidate by 51-49.

In the re-vote, the FPÖ-candidate won by 56-44 (with roughly the same turnout) ...

[Tender Branson]

From "Voice of America":

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.voanews.com/content/youth-fear-austria-presidential-re-run/3402091.html

[Antonio the Sixth]

From "Voice of America":

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.voanews.com/content/youth-fear-austria-presidential-re-run/3402091.html

Hahahahaha, fail.

[rob in cal]

   Tender, one advantage of you going back to precinct voting is that you can give us a little flavor of the voting, less impersonal than just mailing in your ballot.  I vote for Tender to go back to the precinct.

[Tender Branson]

   Tender, one advantage of you going back to precinct voting is that you can give us a little flavor of the voting, less impersonal than just mailing in your ballot.  I vote for Tender to go back to the precinct.

That's of course something to think about ... My precinct is only a 5 minute walk away, so of course I could do that.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, the VdB and Hofer campaign teams announced that they will talk with each other about a fairness agreement, a single/combined TV-debate which will be broadcast by all major channels (instead of several debates on each channel) and limiting the actual campaign time (the VdB camp wants the main campaign to start 4 weeks ahead of the election day, the Hofer campaign 2 weeks ahead of it). Both the VdB and Hofer camps said there will be new poster campaigns in the last 2-4 weeks before election day, but not during the summer holidays. The FPÖ said they are planning to spend an additional 1.5-2.5 million € on the re-vote. The Greens have not mentioned a number.

Summed up: Both campaigns want to limit personal campaigning, TV ads, as well as campaign poster waves to a minimum - so that the voters don't get the impression that they are wasting their taxpayer money.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/5042984/HofburgWahl_FPO-will-TVDuelle-auf-ein-Minimum-beschraenken

[Tender Branson]

Certain far-right-wing circles are reporting on Facebook, Twitter etc. that VdB has lung cancer and that he won't be able to serve out his Presidential term because it's in the "end stages" (Note: VdB is a heavy smoker).

The VdB camp calls this a lie and filed charges against "unknown".

[Tender Branson]

Today, the government has set October 2 as the date for the re-vote (the same day as Hungary's asylum referendum).

[jimrtex]

You people do realise that a 100% accurate count across a whole country is actually impossible?

* in some cases the votes were counted by people not belonging to the election commission
* in some cases, not all members of the election commission were present
* in some cases, only a member of the ÖVP counted all votes and the other commission members from the other parties just arrived later, signed that they were present and simply trusted the ÖVP-guy that he counted everything properly etc. etc.

What (or who) is the "elections commission"?  In American usage, I would think of a 'commission' as a small executive body, who may have staff (eg Texas Railroad Commission, Federal Elections Commission, Federal Communications Commission).

[jimrtex]

Interior Minister Sobotka has presented several election law fixes (which will likely be passed in parliament after the runoff):

* mandatory schooling of election officials so they have a clue of the election law and not just sit nearby the voters and tick them off and come and leave when they want to

Why do election officials tick off the voters? Are they sitting too close when they are voting?

[jimrtex]

From "Voice of America":

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.voanews.com/content/youth-fear-austria-presidential-re-run/3402091.html

They have added a correction:

"Correction: An earlier draft of this article said an Australian court overturned the results. It was an Austrian court. Voice of Armenia regrets the error."

[Tender Branson]

What (or who) is the "elections commission"?  In American usage, I would think of a 'commission' as a small executive body, who may have staff (eg Texas Railroad Commission, Federal Elections Commission, Federal Communications Commission).

There's an election commission at every precinct to handle and supervise the voting, which is made up of representatives from each party.

While election day is a Sunday and virtually all commission members are showing up, the situation is more complex on Monday, when the postal ballots are counted. Initially, there were only a handful of postal ballots which were quickly counted. But in recent years, more and more people voted by postal ballot, meaning it takes longer to count them on Monday. Many election commission members have a regular job though, which means they cannot be present when the postal ballots are counted. They simply check in at 5 or 6pm or later when they are done with their job and sign the protocoll that they were present at the count ... (which is what the Court ruled unconstitutional). The full election commission has to be present when the postal ballots are counted. This will be changed after the re-vote, because postal ballots will soon be counted on Sunday evening with the rest of the precinct votes ...

Why do election officials tick off the voters? Are they sitting too close when they are voting?

I mean checking the voter lists if someone has voted etc.

"tick off" is probably the wrong word ...

[jimrtex]

What (or who) is the "elections commission"?  In American usage, I would think of a 'commission' as a small executive body, who may have staff (eg Texas Railroad Commission, Federal Elections Commission, Federal Communications Commission).

There's an election commission at every precinct to handle and supervise the voting, which is made up of representatives from each party.

Is the election commission made up of residents of the precinct? How are the commissioners chosen? Which parties are entitled to representation in the commission. Do they actually administer the election at the precinct, or are just intended to be observers?

In the US it is typical for election judges to be appointed by political parties (or at least recommended by them). With elections on Tuesdays, they have to put in 12 hours plus for very little pay. Most are retired and have been doing this for decades. To get them to come in for training, they are offered higher pay. In the US they would probably say "we've always done it this way". Perhaps this was what happened in Austria?

While election day is a Sunday and virtually all commission members are showing up, the situation is more complex on Monday, when the postal ballots are counted. Initially, there were only a handful of postal ballots which were quickly counted. But in recent years, more and more people voted by postal ballot, meaning it takes longer to count them on Monday. Many election commission members have a regular job though, which means they cannot be present when the postal ballots are counted. They simply check in at 5 or 6pm or later when they are done with their job and sign the protocoll that they were present at the count ... (which is what the Court ruled unconstitutional). The full election commission has to be present when the postal ballots are counted. This will be changed after the re-vote, because postal ballots will soon be counted on Sunday evening with the rest of the precinct votes ...

When does election-day voting begin? Does it begin after mass?

When was "initially" for casting postal ballots (without cause)? Where do you mail your ballot to? Is it to a central location, and then distributed to the precincts?

Why do election officials tick off the voters? Are they sitting too close when they are voting?

I mean checking the voter lists if someone has voted etc.

"tick off" is probably the wrong word ...

But now some voters are ticked off at election officials?

[Tender Branson]

Is the election commission made up of residents of the precinct? How are the commissioners chosen? Which parties are entitled to representation in the commission. Do they actually administer the election at the precinct, or are just intended to be observers?

In the US it is typical for election judges to be appointed by political parties (or at least recommended by them). With elections on Tuesdays, they have to put in 12 hours plus for very little pay. Most are retired and have been doing this for decades. To get them to come in for training, they are offered higher pay. In the US they would probably say "we've always done it this way". Perhaps this was what happened in Austria?

Usually, there are several precincts within a city or town (there's about 1 precinct for every 800 or so voters). The commission members are chosen by the partys themselves (usually older, retired party members who have done this for ages, but also younger ones with jobs). Those people are usually from the city themselves. And yes, they administer the election at the precinct. The pay or compensation varies from city to city or state (some states have a voluntary basis like working for the Red Cross etc., while some cities offer up to 80€ per commission members for election day).

When does election-day voting begin? Does it begin after mass?

When was "initially" for casting postal ballots (without cause)? Where do you mail your ballot to? Is it to a central location, and then distributed to the precincts?

Poll opening times vary by city. Each city can set their own opening times, but most open between 7 and 8am. Mass is not that important anymore these days, but there are still rural conservative places in which people vote after mass (after 11am).

By "initially" I mean a decade ago, when only Austrians abroad were allowed to vote by postal ballot. Only about 30.000 Austrians did so in a federal election, so the votes were quickly counted. Nowadays, about 800.000 people vote by absentee ballot.

Postal ballots are sent to the county election commissions, where they are counted. They are not distributed back to the precincts, they are simply counted on the district level.

But now some voters are ticked off at election officials?

Yepp, because some did not do the job they were asked to do (didn't show up, signed protocolls too early or too late, etc.) and the Court cited this sloppiness as a reason why the election must be repeated ...

[Tender Branson]

I signed up with the Gallup Online Panel today, so I can take part in their Presidential surveys for the newspapers "Österreich (or Ö24)" ...

[Tender Branson]

The first Gallup poll (conducted July 5-6, n=600) after the court decision has Hofer "ahead" - but there's a 4.5% MoE:



Projected turnout:

72% say they will definitely vote again
12% are likely to vote again
  8% are not likely to vote
  8% are undecided

Green- and SPÖ-voters are the most likely to vote again (85% and 79%), FPÖ-voters are at 73%.

This means turnout might actually not drop off, like many experts said ...

Candidate support:

68% will definitely vote for the same candidate as in the original runoff
11% will likely vote for the same candidate
  6% are thinking about switching
  3% are definitely backing the other candidate now
12% are undecided

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Hofer-zieht-an-VdB-vorbei/242464514

[MaxQue]

Austria needs a juridicial reform, including replacement of every member of the Constitutionnal Court.

Also, government should get their bank accounts, to see how many were paid by FPO and tere should be protests every day in front of their houses until they resign.

The far-right can't be allowed to steal elections, nor can me (financially or morally) corrupt judges.

[Tender Branson]

Hofer/FPÖ should better not turn the re-vote into an "Auxit"-style referendum ...

The same Gallup poll which had Hofer up 51-49 yesterday is also showing that 52% of Austrians want to remain in the EU, while only 30% want to leave it. 18% are undecided.

Also: Only 30% want an EU-exit referendum, while 60% are opposed.

By party, 91% of Green voters, 83% of NEOS voters, 75% of SPÖ voters and 70% of ÖVP voters want to remain in the EU. On the other hand, 52% of FPÖ voters want to exit the EU.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Nur-30-Prozent-fuer-einen-Oexit/242616323

The main reason Hofer does so well is not the "Brexit"-boost (it would actually be a shot in the knee), it's Hofer himself: So far, no FPÖ-politician has ever had favorable ratings above 50% among Austrians. But a recent OGM poll had Hofer among the politicians with the highest favourables in the country.

So, it's not ideology that's boosting him, but his good/folksy image as a person ...