Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Antonio the Sixth]

In Italy, Trentino-Alto Adige tends to vote for mainstream centrist or center-left parties (the main local party, SVP, is part of the left coalition, and the Northern Leage always did very poorly). I doubt it would be fertile ground for Hofer, especially since Italians there would be scared by Austrian nationalism.

[Tender Branson]

Tender... a bit of an "out there" query. It involves South Tyrol (and let dead dogs sleep is my motto in that regard).

Nevertheless, back in 2015, a Spectra opinion poll of Austrians stated that 89% both favour a referendum in South Tyrol and 89% also preferred South Tyrol becoming part of Austria.

http://www.thelocal.at/20150126/austrians-in-favour-of-unification-with-south-tyrol

Along those same lines, Hofer is a far-right nationalist and am curious why he does not advocate same in Austria during the presidential election campaign. In Austrian Tyrol, VdB won by 51.4% to 48.6% over Hofer in the previous final ballot.

One would think that Hofer would champion such a South Tyrol referendum during the current campaign in order to perhaps swing the state of Tyrol over to him.

Again, I am just throwing this matter out there. Am against same myself... but curious why far-right Hofer does not champion same?

In Italy, Trentino-Alto Adige tends to vote for mainstream centrist or center-left parties (the main local party, SVP, is part of the left coalition, and the Northern Leage always did very poorly). I doubt it would be fertile ground for Hofer, especially since Italians there would be scared by Austrian nationalism.

That was a very misleading/inaccurate poll, because it was done for a secessionist group in South Tyrol.

These polls have nothing to do with reality and they always overstate the actual support for secession from Italy.

In fact, I don't know many people (even among my FPÖ-voting family) that would like South Tyrol join Austria again. In fact, most Austrians like it the way it is.

[Tender Branson]

Strache + Hofer of course are strong backers of a referendum in South Tyrol and re-unification with Austria, see here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=221414.msg5062432#msg5062432

... but if anything, most South Tyrolians would probably favour an independent state in such a referendum, because they don't like to transfer their hard-earned money either to Rome, Vienna or Brussels (remember that South Tyrol is the richest region in Italy and it's shovelling a ton of money to the South each year to prop up the poor regions there).

Also remember that South Tyrol's governor has recently endorsed VdB.

And most Austrians don't give a damn either if South Tyrol remains with Italy, becomes independent or re-joins Austria.

The people of Austria only care about their next vacation in South Tyrol, which has much warmer and nicer weather than Austria itself, for example in spring and the fall ...

[Antonio the Sixth]

"Fun" fact: without South Tyrol, Berlusconi would have won the latest parliamentary elections.

Please, please, please leave it to us.

[Tender Branson]

"Fun" fact: without South Tyrol, Berlusconi would have won the latest parliamentary elections.

Please, please, please leave it to us.

No problem, according to me ...

As I've said above, except for the die-hard FPÖ-core here and the Freiheitlichen/Südtiroler Freiheit-core in South Tyrol, nobody cares about this issue - no matter how Strache and Hofer and their South Tyrolian friends rage about it.

90% of the populations in Austria and South Tyrol consider their tirades and the status of ST a non-issue.

[Tender Branson]

All couple thousand election officials are now getting mandatory e-learning lessons ahead of the re-vote ...

I cannot think of a cleaner election anywhere than what we are about to see on Oct. 2 ...

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/5056868/Stichwahl_ELearningModul-soll-Rechtswidrigkeiten-verhindern

[aross]

Tender... a bit of an "out there" query. It involves South Tyrol (and let dead dogs sleep is my motto in that regard).

Nevertheless, back in 2015, a Spectra opinion poll of Austrians stated that 89% both favour a referendum in South Tyrol and 89% also preferred South Tyrol becoming part of Austria.

http://www.thelocal.at/20150126/austrians-in-favour-of-unification-with-south-tyrol

Along those same lines, Hofer is a far-right nationalist and am curious why he does not advocate same in Austria during the presidential election campaign. In Austrian Tyrol, VdB won by 51.4% to 48.6% over Hofer in the previous final ballot.

One would think that Hofer would champion such a South Tyrol referendum during the current campaign in order to perhaps swing the state of Tyrol over to him.

Again, I am just throwing this matter out there. Am against same myself... but curious why far-right Hofer does not champion same?

In Italy, Trentino-Alto Adige tends to vote for mainstream centrist or center-left parties (the main local party, SVP, is part of the left coalition, and the Northern Leage always did very poorly). I doubt it would be fertile ground for Hofer, especially since Italians there would be scared by Austrian nationalism.

That was a very misleading/inaccurate poll, because it was done for a secessionist group in South Tyrol.

These polls have nothing to do with reality and they always overstate the actual support for secession from Italy.

In fact, I don't know many people (even among my FPÖ-voting family) that would like South Tyrol join Austria again. In fact, most Austrians like it the way it is.

Hm. Whenever this comes up, I tend to find a surprising amount conservatives (both bürgerlich and FPÖ, though I tend to avoid politics with the latter) I know care about it.

Spectra is a perfectly respectable, if minor pollster. Mostly tends to poll Upper Austria though. The question on self-determination was „In Südtirol wird immer wieder der Wunsch nach Ausübung des Selbstbestimmungsrechtes geäußert. Würden Sie es begrüßen, wenn die Bevölkerung Südtirols in einem Referendum auf friedliche und demokratische Weise über die staatliche Zugehörigkeit des Landes entscheidet, oder würden Sie das nicht begrüßen?“ (The desire for exercising self-determination has been a recurring issue in South Tyrol. Would you welcome the population of South Tyrol peacefully and democratically deciding their future allegiance by referendum?) So not exactly neutral, but not misleading either. The wording of the supposed second question on actually joining Austria can't be found and having exactly the same result does seem somewhat dodgy. 89% for self-determination seems at least possible if you exclude DKs - which there will be a lot of, as you said (and despite what I said) a lot of people still don't care + people who dislike the idea due to nationalist connotation but don't want to say self-determination is bad. Interestingly, the poll also found support was lowest in Western Austria.

Speaking personally, I fully support the idea of self-determination and it seems fairly clear and obvious to me it applies to South Tyrol. The "indivisible unity of the nation" some European states still dare to come up with (looking at you, Spain) is frankly disgraceful. (Though one of the articles on this poll actually said the Heimatbund (ugh) had also commissioned a poll in Italy which showed 72% support, so fair enough, it's only the official stance that's an issue in this case.) As for a referendum, the Scottish precedent - majority in the regional parliament required to trigger - seem reasonably. Anyway, at the same time, I have no particular desire for reunification (and the vast majority of its proponents are of course highly distasteful), though I would obviously have opposed partition at the time. And of course, it's highly unlikely ever to happen because the SVP are perfectly happy being pork-barrelers-in-chief and are doing quite well for themselves. They truly are the Italian PNV...

South Tyrolean independence is just as bizarre an idea as Ulster independence and about as likely ever to happen.

All couple thousand election officials are now getting mandatory e-learning lessons ahead of the re-vote ...

I cannot think of a cleaner election anywhere than what we are about to see on Oct. 2 ...

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/5056868/Stichwahl_ELearningModul-soll-Rechtswidrigkeiten-verhindern

Not to put to fine a point on it, but the Greens have been doing this (at their own expense) for years...

[Tender Branson]

Unemployment rates by district for June:

(the green dot indicates my district)

(the bars below the map are the UE rates for the capital cities of the 9 states)

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg State's Labour Market Agency has already released the July numbers and my district (Zell am See) comes in at 3.3% unemployment rate (down by 0.1% compared with July 2015) - July and December/January are always the months with the lowest unemployment rate.

If we compare the UE map by district with the VdB/Hofer map, it seems unemployment is not really a factor in this election. Both VdB and Hofer do well in districts with low unemployment, but they also have districts with high unemployment.

A more classical comparison would be the SPÖ/ÖVP divide: Unemployment is higher in districts where the SPÖ did well in the federal elections, while unemployment is generally low in the areas won by the ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

LOL, even the University of Michigan (!!!) - who did a study - weighed in and found no election manipulations in the original runoff:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://home.isr.umich.edu/releases/austrian-election-no-voter-fraud

[Tender Branson]

New poll (Unique Research/Profil magazine) about Turkish EU-membership talks:

"Should the EU-membership talks with Turkey be terminated ?"

87% Yes
  6% No
  7% Undecided

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-abbruch-eu-beitrittsverhandlungen-tuerkei-7521796

[Omega21]

Hofer keeps his lead in the newest OSTERREICH poll.



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Hofer-weiter-voran/247185953

[PresidentSamTilden]

Are there any debates or conventions or anything that could change the nature of the race? I feel like US politics have been studied down to a science but I know nothing of Austrian politics.

What would change if Hofer assumed the presidency?

[Pandaguineapig]

Are there any debates or conventions or anything that could change the nature of the race? I feel like US politics have been studied down to a science but I know nothing of Austrian politics.

What would change if Hofer assumed the presidency?

From what I understand the Austrian presidency is mostly ceremonial, it would mostly be a signal of a strong surge in the Austrian right and a potential FPO government in the next parliamentary election

[Omega21]

Are there any debates or conventions or anything that could change the nature of the race? I feel like US politics have been studied down to a science but I know nothing of Austrian politics.

What would change if Hofer assumed the presidency?

From what I understand the Austrian presidency is mostly ceremonial, it would mostly be a signal of a strong surge in the Austrian right and a potential FPO government in the next parliamentary election

He is completely right. It would just say "Either you are going to stop paying 76.839 Non-Austrians  837,76 Euros of Welfare every month (that number is just for the city of Wien) and stop the flow of migrants, or we will vote FPO in the Federal election.."

Anyway, I think an FPO Victory is certain in the next Federal elections..

Just find it funny that some Americans call out the FPO for this kind of thinking, even though America has a really bad social system for American Citizens, not to mention the non-existent system for Illegal migrants.

[Tender Branson]

Are there any debates or conventions or anything that could change the nature of the race? I feel like US politics have been studied down to a science but I know nothing of Austrian politics.

What would change if Hofer assumed the presidency?

There are no conventions, because the candidates are chosen by the parties - not in primaries like in the US.

But there are debates of course, there were several in Round 1 and the original runoff and there will be some ahead of the new runoff.

Not a lot would happen really if Hofer assumed the presidency, even though the Left likes to write the Devil on the wall. I'm pretty sure Hofer would stick to the rules and be a normal President (after all, he's not nuts like Trump).

[Tender Branson]

Anyway, the new poll posted by Omega21 also shows that 7 in 10 people polled said they are "certain" to vote in the Oct. 2 runoff re-vote.

Another 14% say they are "likely" to vote (but these people almost always stay home in the end).

[Omega21]

Anyway, the new poll posted by Omega21 also shows that 7 in 10 people polled said they are "certain" to vote in the Oct. 2 runoff re-vote.

Another 14% say they are "likely" to vote (but these people almost always stay home in the end).

Still we can expect a decent Turnout, although I would like a bit more

[Tender Branson]

Anyway, the new poll posted by Omega21 also shows that 7 in 10 people polled said they are "certain" to vote in the Oct. 2 runoff re-vote.

Another 14% say they are "likely" to vote (but these people almost always stay home in the end).

Still we can expect a decent Turnout, although I would like a bit more

From what I hear around me (family/friends/co-workers), most seem to have come around the "shock" that they have to vote again and most are actually quite motivated again to vote.

Looking like a close race again.

[Tender Branson]

The presidential runoff re-vote campaign is still low-key and will remain so until the first week of September, when the Greens/VdB will hold their official campaign launch (city not known yet).

The FPÖ/Hofer will hold their campaign kickoff event in Wels (Upper Austria) on September 10, a suburb of the capital Linz and its commuter belt along the A1 highway, which is very vote-rich and competetive.

In recent days, VdB has campaigned at events in Tyrol, Upper Austria and Styria.

Hofer will appear at events in Burgenland, Carinthia, Vienna and Lower Austria next week.

[Tender Branson]

A new OGM poll for the "Kurier" shows a broad multi-partisan alliance in support of Chancellor Kern's and Foreign Minister Kurz's recent attacks against Turkish President Erdogan:



About 8/10 or more of those polled agree with the comments of Kern/Kurz, with FPÖ-voters most strongly in favour.

But voters rate Kurz's comments as more "honest" rather than "populist" than Kern's comments.

Especially FPÖ-voters think Kern's comments were more populist than meant in a honest way, while they think Kurz's comments were meant honestly.



http://kurier.at/politik/inland/ogm-kurier-umfrage-tuerkei-kurs-von-kern-kurz-gefaellt/215.387.784

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) gave an interview yesterday to the "Österreich" tabloid, in which he favours an Auxit, but only if 2 criteria are met: If Turkey is allowed to join the EU, or if the EU "evolves further away from the citizens, with more power to Brussels".

He also defended Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) and his criticism against Erdogan and demanded a naturalisation stop for people with Turkish citizenship, because Turkey does not submit data on Turks who get Austrian citizenship and later request Turkish citizenship again when these people are on holiday in Turkey. Austria does not allow dual citizenship.

He also called for a facial veil ban in Austria and when asked who he prefers in the US Presidential election, he said "neither". He'd like to host John Kerry as first official guest from the US if he becomes President, calling him "a great, charismatic guy who has achieved a lot".

Plus:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.thelocal.at/20160814/hofer-proposes-burka-ban-and-turkish-passport-blocks-muslim

[Omega21]

Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) gave an interview yesterday to the "Österreich" tabloid, in which he favours an Auxit, but only if 2 criteria are met: If Turkey is allowed to join the EU, or if the EU "evolves further away from the citizens, with more power to Brussels".

He also defended Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) and his criticism against Erdogan and demanded a naturalisation stop for people with Turkish citizenship, because Turkey does not submit data on Turks who get Austrian citizenship and later request Turkish citizenship again when these people are on holiday in Turkey. Austria does not allow dual citizenship.

He also called for a facial veil ban in Austria and when asked who he prefers in the US Presidential election, he said "neither". He'd like to host John Kerry as first official guest from the US if he becomes President, calling him "a great, charismatic guy who has achieved a lot".

Plus:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.thelocal.at/20160814/hofer-proposes-burka-ban-and-turkish-passport-blocks-muslim

Do you agree with the facial veil ban?

Seems like a necessity, because if someone is not willing to integrate into the culture they are coming to, they shouldn't be allowed to enter in the first place..

[Rocky Rockefeller]

Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) gave an interview yesterday to the "Österreich" tabloid, in which he favours an Auxit, but only if 2 criteria are met: If Turkey is allowed to join the EU, or if the EU "evolves further away from the citizens, with more power to Brussels".

He also defended Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) and his criticism against Erdogan and demanded a naturalisation stop for people with Turkish citizenship, because Turkey does not submit data on Turks who get Austrian citizenship and later request Turkish citizenship again when these people are on holiday in Turkey. Austria does not allow dual citizenship.

He also called for a facial veil ban in Austria and when asked who he prefers in the US Presidential election, he said "neither". He'd like to host John Kerry as first official guest from the US if he becomes President, calling him "a great, charismatic guy who has achieved a lot".

Plus:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.thelocal.at/20160814/hofer-proposes-burka-ban-and-turkish-passport-blocks-muslim

Do you agree with the facial veil ban?

Seems like a necessity, because if someone is not willing to integrate into the culture they are coming to, they shouldn't be allowed to enter in the first place..

But does integration really mean you can't follow your own religious practices?

[Omega21]

Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) gave an interview yesterday to the "Österreich" tabloid, in which he favours an Auxit, but only if 2 criteria are met: If Turkey is allowed to join the EU, or if the EU "evolves further away from the citizens, with more power to Brussels".

He also defended Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) and his criticism against Erdogan and demanded a naturalisation stop for people with Turkish citizenship, because Turkey does not submit data on Turks who get Austrian citizenship and later request Turkish citizenship again when these people are on holiday in Turkey. Austria does not allow dual citizenship.

He also called for a facial veil ban in Austria and when asked who he prefers in the US Presidential election, he said "neither". He'd like to host John Kerry as first official guest from the US if he becomes President, calling him "a great, charismatic guy who has achieved a lot".

Plus:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.thelocal.at/20160814/hofer-proposes-burka-ban-and-turkish-passport-blocks-muslim

Do you agree with the facial veil ban?

Seems like a necessity, because if someone is not willing to integrate into the culture they are coming to, they shouldn't be allowed to enter in the first place..

But does integration really mean you can't follow your own religious practices?

Well I follow the Balaclava religion, which states i need to wear a Balaclava every time I go out.

So far I have been arrested 50 times..

More of a security thing, and yes, someone who follows Wahhabism or a strict interpretation of Islam can never integrate into Europe. The strict interpretation calls for the execution of Gays and Apostates, and I'm sure we don't want that..

Like Minister Kurz said, it must be moderate European Islam.