Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

Hofer (FPÖ) turns his focus on a "fair increase" of the allowance for nursing care for old people:

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/5070377/FPO-fordert-ehrliche-Inflationsabgeltung-des-Pflegegeldes

I guess this is to gain votes from the huge pool of old people, who lean VdB (in Austria, old and young people voted slightly for VdB, while middle-aged working and tax-paying people strongly voted for Hofer).

...

Didn't see much from VdB (Greens) in the news over the past week.

[Omega21]

The Greens are currently facing a backlash from the OVP and the FPO.

This came about when the Green pary member Ahmet Demir compared the Burka to the habit Nuns wear. He also posted a picture of two nuns with a sarcastic comment.

Now, It is worth to mention that he is a Muslim, and seeing as he supports the Burka he is not a very progressive Muslim, even though he is in the Greens.

This comment was written probably because of the Foreign Minister Kurz (OVP) and FPO's call for a ban on the Face veil, NOT the entire Burka.

If the ban was put into motion the Burka would not cover the Face, just every other part of the body. This is the same as the Habit, so I really don't know how he could call out the Habit seeing as it does NOT cover the face.

The comment was called out as inappropriate, rude and so on.

More on the story: http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Gruenen-Politiker-empoert-mit-Burka-Vergleich/248044284

(It is in German. If you don't speak German and use Google Chrome, Right click on the page and Translate to English. Most of the story will be understandable.)

[Tender Branson]

During the presentation of the "Integration Report 2016", Foreign and Integration Minister Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) said that he wants to better integrate refugees into the labour market and society by creating thousands of 1€-jobs or mandatory community jobs for them - using the German model.

This would be instead of them receiving generous welfare payments or being added to the unmployment rolls, where they get generous unemployment money from the state (850€ a month per single person, 14x per year - or up to 3000€ a month for families).



Kurz's opinion is that the 100.000s of refugees should do their bit for the society by doing some local work or low-paid jobs, for the hospitality they received from Austrians over the past years.

Those refugees who refuse to take these 1€-jobs or community jobs, could face significant cuts in their state welfare payments (up to a total cut).

At the same time, he called for a facial veil ban in Austria - much like the rest of the ÖVP, the FPÖ and the TS. SPÖ, Greens, NEOS are largely opposed or critical to a veil ban.

http://derstandard.at/2000043010224/Kurz-will-Pflicht-zu-Ein-Euro-Jobs-fuer-Fluechtlinge-und

[Omega21]

During the presentation of the "Integration Report 2016", Foreign and Integration Minister Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) said that he wants to better integrate refugees into the labour market and society by creating thousands of 1€-jobs or mandatory community jobs for them - using the German model.

This would be instead of them receiving generous welfare payments or being added to the unmployment rolls, where they get generous unemployment money from the state (850€ a month per single person, 14x per year - or up to 3000€ a month for families).



Kurz's opinion is that the 100.000s of refugees should do their bit for the society by doing some local work or low-paid jobs, for the hospitality they received from Austrians over the past years.

Those refugees who refuse to take these 1€-jobs or community jobs, could face significant cuts in their state welfare payments (up to a total cut).

At the same time, he called for a facial veil ban in Austria - much like the rest of the ÖVP, the FPÖ and the TS. SPÖ, Greens, NEOS are largely opposed or critical to a veil ban.

http://derstandard.at/2000043010224/Kurz-will-Pflicht-zu-Ein-Euro-Jobs-fuer-Fluechtlinge-und

Could this make some OVP voters vote for Hofer in the Election?

OVP is fairly conservative and I wouldn't be surprised if some were put off by the Greens Political stance on the Burka/Welfare for Migrants..

[Omega21]

What are the chances that VDB wins the revote?

It's a lottery.

The 2 Most Recent OSTERREICH polls show Hofer at 52, VdB at 48.

But this does not mean much, as it can turn either way.

I would say the odds are 50/50, but I think VdB is in a slightly worse position because of all the problems with Immigration and so on.

[Tender Branson]

What are the chances that VDB wins the revote?

Impossible to say really. Much like nobody knows how OH or NC will vote.

[Tender Branson]

VdB (Greens) has raised more than 1 Mio. € since July 1 (when the Constitutional Court ruled in favour of the runoff re-vote).

That is a big haul for VdB and much more than they expected to get ...

VdB/Greens expect to spend another 2-3 million € for the re-vote.

http://derstandard.at/2000043073392/Ueber-eine-Million-Euro-Spenden-an-Van-der-Bellen

[Tender Branson]

Hofer (FPÖ) had a photo and video-shoot at the "SkyWalk Hohe Wand" a couple days ago, with the shots being used for the Mid-September poster campaign and probably some TV ads:

[PresidentSamTilden]

Couple questions for you:

What's VdB's stance on immigration? What's Hofer's stance on climate change/the environment?

Edit: Changed "policy" to "stance" since the prez has less power over there.

[Tender Branson]

Couple questions for you:

What's VdB's stance on immigration? What's Hofer's stance on climate change/the environment?

Edit: Changed "policy" to "stance" since the prez has less power over there.

VdB on immigration: Pretty much Green Party policy, very friendly to immigration and refugees (he's a former refugee himself) - but favours some controls to uncontrolled mass immigration (like we have seen it last year).

Hofer on the environment/climate change: You'd expect that Hofer is a climate change denier, coming from a Far-Right party, but that's not the case. In this Presse article ("Norbert Hofer - The secret Green ?"), experts say that Hofer (who's also the FPÖ's environmental speaker) is actually more radical on the environment than some Greens.

Hofer is strongly against nuclear energy (as pretty much everyone in Austria) like the Greens and calls for heavy investments into Green energy, such as wind and solar power. Hofer also wrote a book called "Energy and consumer goods - Basics for Freedom", in which he favours that Austria goes all-Green by 2045, with subsidies for (newly constructed) houses with solar panels on their roofs, etc.

http://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/economist/4992173/Norbert-Hofer-der-verhinderte-Grune

[Tender Branson]

More evidence that this race is 50-50 again:

Günther Ogris from SORA (the "exit pollster" for the ORF) did some internal polls recently, which suggested a very close race with only a few thousand votes seperating the candidates.

Public polling is very rare so far, mostly because of the holiday season which will only end in Mid-September. Many Austrians are still on vacation with their kids and are not tuned into the campaign at all right now ...

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ (and the Greens) losing a bit in the new Profil/Unique Research poll:

33% FPÖ (-2)
26% SPÖ (+2)
21% ÖVP (+1)
12% Greens (-2)
  7% NEOS (+1)
  1% Others (nc)

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-spoe-oevp-abstand-fpoe-7531722

[Omega21]

Couple questions for you:

What's VdB's stance on immigration? What's Hofer's stance on climate change/the environment?

Edit: Changed "policy" to "stance" since the prez has less power over there.

VdB on immigration: Pretty much Green Party policy, very friendly to immigration and refugees (he's a former refugee himself) - but favours some controls to uncontrolled mass immigration (like we have seen it last year).

Hofer on the environment/climate change: You'd expect that Hofer is a climate change denier, coming from a Far-Right party, but that's not the case. In this Presse article ("Norbert Hofer - The secret Green ?"), experts say that Hofer (who's also the FPÖ's environmental speaker) is actually more radical on the environment than some Greens.

Hofer is strongly against nuclear energy (as pretty much everyone in Austria) like the Greens and calls for heavy investments into Green energy, such as wind and solar power. Hofer also wrote a book called "Energy and consumer goods - Basics for Freedom", in which he favours that Austria goes all-Green by 2045, with subsidies for (newly constructed) houses with solar panels on their roofs, etc.

http://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/economist/4992173/Norbert-Hofer-der-verhinderte-Grune

So why are you voting VdB ? It seems like Hofer is a perfect candidate for you, as he is against the Mass Immigration, pro Enviroment, and Liberal in a lot of different topics.

Is there any particular reason you like VdB more, or is it just because you dont want to vote for anyone in the FPO?

[Tender Branson]

Couple questions for you:

What's VdB's stance on immigration? What's Hofer's stance on climate change/the environment?

Edit: Changed "policy" to "stance" since the prez has less power over there.

VdB on immigration: Pretty much Green Party policy, very friendly to immigration and refugees (he's a former refugee himself) - but favours some controls to uncontrolled mass immigration (like we have seen it last year).

Hofer on the environment/climate change: You'd expect that Hofer is a climate change denier, coming from a Far-Right party, but that's not the case. In this Presse article ("Norbert Hofer - The secret Green ?"), experts say that Hofer (who's also the FPÖ's environmental speaker) is actually more radical on the environment than some Greens.

Hofer is strongly against nuclear energy (as pretty much everyone in Austria) like the Greens and calls for heavy investments into Green energy, such as wind and solar power. Hofer also wrote a book called "Energy and consumer goods - Basics for Freedom", in which he favours that Austria goes all-Green by 2045, with subsidies for (newly constructed) houses with solar panels on their roofs, etc.

http://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/economist/4992173/Norbert-Hofer-der-verhinderte-Grune

So why are you voting VdB ? It seems like Hofer is a perfect candidate for you, as he is against the Mass Immigration, pro Enviroment, and Liberal in a lot of different topics.

Is there any particular reason you like VdB more, or is it just because you dont want to vote for anyone in the FPO?

I would never vote for the FPÖ or one of their candidates, for historical reasons.

You are right that to many Hofer is a likeable, down to earth guy and not a lunatic like Trump with some good positions on the issues - but I'm worried about the party he belongs to ...

[Omega21]

Couple questions for you:

What's VdB's stance on immigration? What's Hofer's stance on climate change/the environment?

Edit: Changed "policy" to "stance" since the prez has less power over there.

VdB on immigration: Pretty much Green Party policy, very friendly to immigration and refugees (he's a former refugee himself) - but favours some controls to uncontrolled mass immigration (like we have seen it last year).

Hofer on the environment/climate change: You'd expect that Hofer is a climate change denier, coming from a Far-Right party, but that's not the case. In this Presse article ("Norbert Hofer - The secret Green ?"), experts say that Hofer (who's also the FPÖ's environmental speaker) is actually more radical on the environment than some Greens.

Hofer is strongly against nuclear energy (as pretty much everyone in Austria) like the Greens and calls for heavy investments into Green energy, such as wind and solar power. Hofer also wrote a book called "Energy and consumer goods - Basics for Freedom", in which he favours that Austria goes all-Green by 2045, with subsidies for (newly constructed) houses with solar panels on their roofs, etc.

http://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/economist/4992173/Norbert-Hofer-der-verhinderte-Grune

So why are you voting VdB ? It seems like Hofer is a perfect candidate for you, as he is against the Mass Immigration, pro Enviroment, and Liberal in a lot of different topics.

Is there any particular reason you like VdB more, or is it just because you dont want to vote for anyone in the FPO?

I would never vote for the FPÖ or one of their candidates, for historical reasons.

You are right that to many Hofer is a likeable, down to earth guy and not a lunatic like Trump with some good positions on the issues - but I'm worried about the party he belongs to ...

If you have the time, could you please say why you are worried and write down the historical reasons you mentioned.

I am not informed on this topic as well as you since I have only been learning German for a year and a half, and I didn't pay any attention to Austrian politics before then..

I am aware that some FPO founders have a Nazi past, but many former High ranking SPO officials also do..

There is book about this, published by Cambridge. I read it a while back (Page 110):

https://books.google.ba/books?id=q3oLu8I8hVMC&pg=PA110&lpg=PA110&dq=nazis+in+the+spo&source=bl&ots=55hT2r-726&sig=d-NQCAgBkcrSAnzmoT83LOcIXG8&hl=sr&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiqm_bIlNDOAhXGBsAKHc66CsEQ6AEIKTAC#v=onepage&q=nazis%20in%20the%20spo&f=false

Do you think the FPO could become a Fascist/neo-Nazi party or cause violence like the National Socialists?

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ now backs Kurz's call for mandatory 1€ (community) jobs for refugees and a partial facial veil ban:

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/5071989/BurkaVerbot_Schieder-gibt-Kurz-Ruckendeckung

... but only if the ÖVP agrees to pass a law which would fully legalize gay marriage in Austria.

SPÖ parliamentary club leader Andreas Schieder: "With the partial veil ban and the full legalisation of gay marriage, we would make 2 progressive steps forward."

The SPÖ is only willing to ban Burqas, Bushiyas and Niqabs in public areas - but not Abayas/Tschadors and Hijabs.

[Tender Branson]

SORA poll:

34% FPÖ
28% SPÖ
18% ÖVP
14% Greens
  4% NEOS
  2% Others

http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/umsturz-in-der-oevp-nur-noch-eine-frage-der-zeit-wegen-umfragetief-story-525691

[Tender Branson]

Vienna has announced it is going to raise fees for municipal water and waste collection next year.

Increases like this usually drive some additional protest voters (previous non-voters) to far-right parties.

This could also help Hofer in the re-vote, because he badly needs to draw additional non-voters to the polls in this VdB-stronghold.

[aross]

This could also help Hofer in the re-vote, because he badly needs to draw additional non-voters to the polls in this VdB-stronghold.

This makes not the slightest bit of sense, and is only the latest example of you treating Austrian politics as some kind of tribute act to the United States of America. We don't have some kind of electoral college, nor, for that matter, Governors, conventions, or precincts. Please stop. It's a bit like that 18 year old I met recently who couldn't stop talking about Bernie Sanders but had never heard of Christian Kern or the Nationalrat.

[Tender Branson]

This could also help Hofer in the re-vote, because he badly needs to draw additional non-voters to the polls in this VdB-stronghold.

This makes not the slightest bit of sense, and is only the latest example of you treating Austrian politics as some kind of tribute act to the United States of America. We don't have some kind of electoral college, nor, for that matter, Governors, conventions, or precincts. Please stop. It's a bit like that 18 year old I met recently who couldn't stop talking about Bernie Sanders but had never heard of Christian Kern or the Nationalrat.

Your post makes no sense ...

How is the fee increase and the recent announcement from the government about the paltry 0.8% increase in pensions next year not going to help Hofer win some additional protest voters ?

[aross]

Your post makes no sense ...

Just like yours then. :c**nteyes:

I was referring to the second half of your post

he badly needs to draw additional non-voters to the polls in this VdB-stronghold.

Why? No part of this sentence makes sense. Hofer doesn't need either voters in Vienna or non-voters more than voters anywhere else. Now this may, on the face of it, appear pedantic - but it really, really isn't. So often (and that, not this particular post, is what this is about), what you post in this thread is, to use a phrase, "not even wrong" - it's just meaningless. That, or conventional wisdom while trying to sound like some American pundit. And, maybe I'm being silly, but I come here for proper discussion and analysis and I'm afraid it does grate a wee bit.

Anyway, [/rant].

[Tender Branson]

Your post makes no sense ...

Just like yours then. :c**nteyes:

I was referring to the second half of your post

he badly needs to draw additional non-voters to the polls in this VdB-stronghold.

Why? No part of this sentence makes sense. Hofer doesn't need either voters in Vienna or non-voters more than voters anywhere else. Now this may, on the face of it, appear pedantic - but it really, really isn't. So often (and that, not this particular post, is what this is about), what you post in this thread is, to use a phrase, "not even wrong" - it's just meaningless. That, or conventional wisdom while trying to sound like some American pundit. And, maybe I'm being silly, but I come here for proper discussion and analysis and I'm afraid it does grate a wee bit.

Anyway, [/rant].

If you are not content with what I post, feel free to post your own analysis instead but don't discredit my content, when I'm responsible for 99% of it on this thread.

And YES, Hofer needs additional voters in Vienna if he wants to win the election - because it's likely that VdB will run a campaign that is more targeted for the rural areas this time (he also received more money so far for better poster coverage in rural areas).

[Omega21]

Meanwhile The Green party is against the withdrawal of Asylum status for Asylum seekers who commit a crime and get convicted..

http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/gruene-jetzt-klar-gegen-asyl-entzug-fuer-kriminelle-konter-auf-sobotka-story-525796

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Kriminellen-Asylstatus-aberkennen-Gruene-dagegen/248412734


This should help Hofer more.

[Tender Branson]

Team VdB out with their runoff re-vote poster campaign:



"Our President. For the reputation of Austria."



"Stronger together. No to the Auxit."



"For our well-loved Austria."



"Reasonable decision-making. Reliability instead of extremes."



"2 October: Vote Van der Bellen. More than ever."

[Tender Branson]

This story is almost unknown to people outside of Vienna, but the Constitutional Court did not only rule the Presidential runoff invalid and to be repeated, but also the city council election in Vienna's 2nd district (Leopoldstadt) from last fall.

The vote will be repeated on September 18.

Leopoldstadt is an SPÖ-stronghold, but the match for second place was extremely tight between the Greens and the FPÖ:

38.6% SPÖ
22.2% Greens
22.1% FPÖ
  7.1% ÖVP
  5.7% NEOS
  2.8% ANDAS

https://www.wien.gv.at/wahl/NET/BV151/BV151-202.htm

...

While city council elections are a very localized political thing, it could nonetheless serve as a trial balloon for the Presidential election, if for example the FPÖ gains and the Greens lose relative to the original vote.

The Greens have already started their poster campaign there, using the (in)famous quote from Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) during the Presidential campaign: "You will wonder what kind of things will be possible."





The poster reads:

"The ones who are not going to vote will wonder what kind of things will be possible."