Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[bmw1503]

Assuming, as seems probable at the moment with the current polling, that Alexander van der Bellen and Irmgard Griss are forced into a runoff against each other, who would be the favorite to win?

[Tender Branson]

Assuming, as seems probable at the moment with the current polling, that Alexander van der Bellen and Irmgard Griss are forced into a runoff against each other, who would be the favorite to win?

Hmm, that's really hard to say - as there has never been a situation in which an Independent (Griss) and a Green (VdB) has faced each other. I assume VdB would be backed mostly by center-left voters in the cities and suburbs and Griss by rural, conservative and FPÖ-leaning voters. But I think that both VdB and Griss will eventually start to decline in the polls, once we get closer to the election. Despite SPÖVP being incompetent in the asylum crisis, I would still not underestimate their turnout machines. Also, the FPÖ candidate (if it really turns out to be far-right Johann Gudenus) will likely win back many current Griss-backers and pissed-off voters during the campaign. In the end, all 5 major candidates could end up at around 20%.

[Tender Branson]

So, who is Johann Gudenus (FPÖ) - their most likely presidential candidate ?



Johann Baptist Björn Gudenus, 39 years old, is currently the FPÖ-leader of Vienna and Vice-Mayor of the city. He is the son of John Gudenus, a prominent Holocaust denier (who was sentenced to 1 year in prison for saying that "gas chambers did not exist in WW2-Germany, only in Poland").

Gudenus comes from a wealthy, aristocratic family and has studied in Vienna and Moscow to receive several degrees, including diplomacy and international relations. He speaks 5 languages.

He is a die-hard far-right winger and has good relations to Russian Putin-folk and right-wingers, to which he frequently spoke at conferences in Moscow, attacking the "leftist homo-lobby" and foreigners.

Summed up, he's basically a Strache-clone and will likely be presented as the FPÖ's candidate in February.

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/fpoe-kandidat-fuer-die-hofburg-johann-gudenus-favorit/175.943.651

[rob in cal]

   Would it be fair to say that Gudenus's father is a holocaust denier if he acknowledges the existence of gas chambers in German occupied Poland?  I thought that the camps on German soil like Dachau, Bergen Belsen, Ravensbruck, Buchenwald etc didn't have them.

[aross]

   Would it be fair to say that Gudenus's father is a holocaust denier if he acknowledges the existence of gas chambers in German occupied Poland?  I thought that the camps on German soil like Dachau, Bergen Belsen, Ravensbruck, Buchenwald etc didn't have them.

Mauthausen definitely had one, as did Dachau. (Though the controversy over whether the latter one was ever actually used is a favourite among holocaust deniers). I'm not sure whether they were installed at every camp though.

[Tender Branson]

New Presidential poll by Unique Research for "Heute" newspaper:

31% Van der Bellen (Greens)
22% Griss (Indy)
16% Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
16% Khol (ÖVP)
13% "FPÖ-candidate"
  2% Others (?)

"Are you going to vote in the Presidential election ?"

74% Yes (up from a record-low 54% in 2010, when ÖVP and Greens had no own candidates)
26% No

http://epaper.heute.at/#/documents/160122_HEU/4

[Tender Branson]

Ahead of the Presidential election, the ORF will have several so-called "speed-dating" debates between 2 presidential candidates about "a topic that will be important to the country's future" and which will last 15 minutes. Each debating pair will have a different topic to debate. For example Griss vs. Van der Bellen will debate refugees, Khol vs. FPÖ-candidate will debate pensions and so on ...

There will also be a TV debate with all 5 major candidates on April 21, (assuming Griss manages to collect the 6000 signatures that are needed to be on the ballot).

If there's a runoff (like 99% certain), there will be a town-hall style debate in front of an audience on May 17 and a TV-debate with just a moderator between the runoff candidates on May 19. The runoff will be held on May 22.

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/k/kultur/4908511/Politik-im-TV_Bundespraesidentenwahl-im-ORF_SpeedDating-der

[DavidB.]

This Gudenus guy is some real piece of work, jesus. You refer to him as some kind of a "Strache clone", but isn't Gudenus more than a tad more extreme than Strache?

[Tender Branson]

This Gudenus guy is some real piece of work, jesus. You refer to him as some kind of a "Strache clone", but isn't Gudenus more than a tad more extreme than Strache?

You really think Strache is like this ?



In reality, not even a piece of paper fits between them.

[DavidB.]

I keep getting disappointed by parties of the new right, it seems. Ugh.

Cute pic, btw

[Omega21]

Yeah I was looking up Gudenuses past claims a few days back and he is "a bit" extreme. Although I don't think it's as much as his Dad.
 
In the end it's a shame that the Right wing are the only ones who have balls to completely close the border. I like it that the SPO sh**t their pants in the recent past, that was the only way they would implement a 37.5k ceiling.

And I really hate it when Strache was calling for closure of borders and fences he was called a Xenophobe, but when Faymann became scared because SPO's approval rating had fallen seriously and he declares a Upper-Limit and tightens up the border it's normal and it's called a good step from the SPOVP coallition.

Must admit, Strache was saying these thing long before anyone in the Goverment mentioned anything.

[Tender Branson]

A new Profil poll shows devastating numbers for the SPÖVP government on the asylum topic, yet the FPÖ is actually falling back a bit:

83% oppose the government's management of the asylum crisis and 93% oppose the EU's.

77% also say Austria has reached maximum capacity in accepting asylum seekers (=90.000 last year).

30% FPÖ
24% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
14% Greens
  8% NEOS
  1% Others

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20160123_OTS0003/profil-umfrage-83-gegen-rot-schwarze-fluechtlingspolitik

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20160123_OTS0001/profil-umfrage-fpoe-bei-sonntagsfrage-voran

[rob in cal]

  Yes, its interesting what is considered extreme or not on the immigration issue.  For instance, PM Cameron is only allowing a small number of these migrants in to the UK and yet there is no campaign of international outrage against him, or discussions of how he is the leader of some new rightist European bloc on this issue.
   If the SPO improves its political standing in the months ahead, it might be an interesting lesson for left wing regimes involved  in the migration debate, as it would show the political benefits of moving closer to the popular will on the this issue, (in terms of calling for a migration cap).

[Tender Branson]

Latest poll from today (Unique Research, n=800) shows the gender gap among FPÖ-voters is small:

34% among men
27% among women

FPÖ-vote overall: 31%

...

By age:

16-29: 33%
30-49: 37%
50+:    25%

http://epaper.heute.at/#/documents/160125_HEU/4

Full poll:



Trend:



http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,1252816

[Tender Branson]

Presidential candidate Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens) has now presented his plan for a "campaign fairness agreement". It involves a cap of 2.5 Mio. € in campaign spending, which should be retroactive starting on Jan. 1, and no dirty campaigning by the candidates and their parties.

The Austrian legal limit for a presidential campaign is 7 Mio. € per candidate, so this would be quite a bit lower.

This comes after Indy candidate Irmgard Griss presented her plan for limiting campaign spending to 1 Mio. €, which also includes refusing to air TV ads or setting up campaign posters around the country.

Meanwhile, SPÖ and ÖVP and their candidates (Hundstorfer and Khol) said they are also for a fairness agreement and spening cap of 3-4 Mio. € and said their aides are likely to meet with the other candidate's aides to discuss it.

On the other hand, the FPÖ is still not in favour of a fairness agreement - saying that "there's a legal limit of 7 Mio. € to spend and we don't intend to lower it". They will likely present their candidate on Saturday or Sunday now ...

http://derstandard.at/2000029642861/Van-der-Bellen-legt-Fairness-Abkommen-vor

http://derstandard.at/2000029745338/Praesidentschaftskandidaten-liebaeugeln-mit-Obergrenze

http://derstandard.at/2000029695757/Praesidentschaft-Auch-Hundstorfer-und-Khol-fuer-Fairnessabkommen

http://derstandard.at/2000029747887/Mit-freiheitlichen-Manieren-Richtung-Hofburg

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ-candidate for President will be Ursula Stenzel.



Stenzel is a longtime, former ORF journalist who moderated the main primetime news show.

She later became a Member of the European Parliament for the ÖVP and their delegation leader in Brussels.

In 2005, she ran for "mayor" of Vienna's 1st district. She easily won the election for the ÖVP and became Bezirksvorsteherin of the wealthy Inner City district.

In 2014, she was ousted by the Inner City ÖVP in a coup d'état and replaced as district "mayor" by some other guy. After which she joined the FPÖ before the 2015 Vienna state election, as their surprise candidate (again) for Vienna's 1st. She (and the FPÖ) failed to win it though and came in just 3rd - despite the FPÖ doing really well city-wide in the state election.

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/fpoe-kuert-stenzel-als-kampfansage-gegen-oevp-mann-khol/177.330.315

...

Bonus info for David B.:

Stenzel comes from a Jewish-Catholic family, but I guess she's Catholic herself.

[Omega21]

As time is passing by and all the new cases pop-up I realize I would rather vote for the Austrian Trump than for Vdb, as his policy is basically: Be nice, give them our money, you will get free knives in return!

And that by im referencing to the Swedish Social worker who was killed by a Migrant Kid yesterday.



Vdb=Cultural suicide, also suicide in every other regard.

[Tender Branson]

As time is passing by and all the new cases pop-up I realize I would rather vote for the Austrian Trump than for Vdb, as his policy is basically: Be nice, give them our money, you will get free knives in return!

And that by im referencing to the Swedish Social worker who was killed by a Migrant Kid yesterday.

Vdb=Cultural suicide, also suicide in every other regard.

Don't know about that. The President has virtually no power to do anything about the migrant issue, other than being a "moral voice". The President's powers are limited roughly to swearing in the Chancellor and government, giving some speeches, travelling abroad and hosting foreign guests. Which means, even though VdB is a "naive, left-leftist" on the migrant issue, I'll still likely vote for him (or Griss) because the Presidential election is a personality-based election and those 2 are far more likeable than the other 3. I mean, I'd literally shoot myself before voting for Stenzel, Khol or Hundstorfer ...

[aross]

Such a charming (though fortunately not yet quite correct) cross section of Austrian society being presented here...

Now, news:
Stenzel isn't actually confirmed as the FPÖ candidate yet. Supposedly, this is part of the process that has been going on quietly inside the FPÖ for some time, with Strache trying to purge the old, hardcore cadres that don't appeal to the public and replace them with his type of young populist. This is by no means a internal war or a power struggle though, just him occasionally removing people. It's difficult to see how it could become one, either, as criticising Strache is completely verboten. Anyway, so the FPÖ old guard oppose Stenzel because she's a defector and not right-wing enough. (This actually sounds a bit absurd, because in rhetoric, Stenzel is hard right - she talks about the red-green menace and attempts red scares, which just aren't a thing in Austria. However, her actual positions are reasonably moderate - compared to the FPÖ, that is.)

As a candidate, Stenzel certainly makes sense. I'd say she's the best of all those that have been suggested, excluding Strache. She has a profile of her own, isn't too closely associated with the FPÖ though still clearly their candidate and not just one endorsed by them, and, importantly, she can appeal to ÖVP voters. Her main problem will be her public appearance. She often comes across as snobbish, arrogant and prude. In her interview on the main news right after her defection to the FPÖ she was also off balance and slurred her words, to obvious conclusions.

---

The annual Burschenschaftler (student fraternities, strongly associated with the far-right) Ball will take place on Friday, accompanied by the usual massive protests. Thankfully, the violent loony left seem to have been mostly excluded this year. (I guess I'll find out, as I intend to be there.) Actually, seeing how it taking place in the residence of the President is what most people object to, promising to stop that would make a great campaign promise. Haven't seen anything about it, though.

---

Strongly recommended to any German speakers: (profil.at): andreas-khol-ich-rueckwaertsgewandter-6202043
An interview Khol gave a few days ago about the still polarised debate of Austrian history, particulary the Austrofascist Dictatorship founded by Chancellor Engelbert Dollfuß. I had forgotten about him being an apologist for pretty much all the nasty historical aspects of the Austrian right. Highlights include him claiming the Social Democrats wanted a dictatorship too (and using this to defend Dollfuß's goal of literally taking Austria back to the Middle Ages) and him repeating and affirming his statement about Dollfuß from 1996:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tender Branson]

All 4 main candidates that have announced their presidential campaign so far have released their launch-videos, with Rudolf Hundstorfer (SPÖ) the latest today.

Hundstorfer is probably the one with the best video, followed by Van der Bellen and Griss.

Khol's is the worst and in the meantime he was already ridiculed in a parody by popular Austrian comedians Maschek as "Gollum" from Lord of the Rings.

[DavidB.]

This election seems to provide a rare insight into the future of national politics in all of Europe, increasingly becoming a race between the loony left, in casu VdB, and the racist right, in casu the Dolfuß apologetics and gay bashers. An unbecoming experience for me, who loathes both political camps, but then again, Austrian politics has always been a cesspool. The least problematic candidates seem to be Griss and the SPÖ apparatchik. I'd be likely to vote for the latter.

[aross]

The FPÖ candidate will be announced at 1100 today, according to Strache. Supposedly, those opposed to Stenzel's Nomination got Norbert Hofer (Tender has talked about him before - he's 3rd President of the National Council and a complete political unknown, though powerful inside the FPÖ) to withdraw his refusal to stand on Wednesday. Strache is now actually facing heavy resistance from within his party, and it remains to be seen whether he has come out on top.

This election seems to provide a rare insight into the future of national politics in all of Europe, increasingly becoming a race between the loony left, in casu VdB, and the racist right, in casu the Dolfuß apologetics and gay bashers.

I'm not really sure what you mean by "the loony left" in this case. Bobos/Austrian Guardianistas? Yes, they are certainly a significant part of VdB's support, though they alone aren't getting him to 30% in polls. Student lefties, tankies and actual communists? No, because they make up about 6% of the Austrian electorate at most.

An unbecoming experience for me, who loathes both political camps

This is actually where I see a faint glimmer of hope: this election just might lead to increased polarisation between left and right (and within those camps, SPÖVP, who stage polarisation only to find a cushy, do-nothing settlement no longer being the leading force). Eventually we might see a realignment to Scandinavian-style bloc-based politics. (Wishful thinking, I know.) . Indeed, grand coalition politicians have in recent days repeatedly expressed a desire to prevent a 'camp-based election' (the horror...), precisely because they get this.

The least problematic candidates seem to be Griss and the SPÖ apparatchik. I'd be likely to vote for the latter.

Might I ask why? Stenzel seems a very good fit for you, being far closer to the PVV-type of hard right politicians. Judeo-Christian values and such. And what do you mind about Griss? Her fake anti-establishment thing?

[DavidB.]

I'm not really sure what you mean by "the loony left" in this case. Bobos/Austrian Guardianistas? Yes, they are certainly a significant part of VdB's support, though they alone aren't getting him to 30% in polls. Student lefties, tankies and actual communists? No, because they make up about 6% of the Austrian electorate at most.

No, I was talking about the ideology of the candidates rather than their electorate. In no Western country do actual far-leftists, complete with the intersectionality shebang, make up a sizeable proportion of the population, and certainly not in Austria. To be fair, it would be a mischaracterization to say Van der Bellen is such a far leftist, but at the same time he is all about the "Refugees Welcome" campaign, which, I think, is detrimental to Austria -- and one could have known that before Bataclan and Cologne.

I am afraid that in, say, fifteen years, politics in Western Europe will be dominated by two camps: the anti free-speech, anti-Western, progressive, intersectional far left on the one hand, more similar to what's happening on US campuses than to European Green parties, and by the racist "alt-right" in its newest reincarnation on the other hand, ideologically more similar to movements like "Generation Identity" and 4chan-/pol/ than to, say, the Danish People's Party. Both are horrible, and the FPÖ's right (i.e. Gudenus) provides an excellent insight in how this will look like.

Might I ask why? Stenzel seems a very good fit for you, being far closer to the PVV-type of hard right politicians. Judeo-Christian values and such. And what do you mind about Griss? Her fake anti-establishment thing?

In short: because I am extremely skeptical of the FPÖ.

First of all, I am not a big supporter of the PVV. I voted for them only once, in a second-order election, and while it is true that their "brand" of new-right politics ("Judeo-Christian values and such", and their pro-LGBT views) is certainly something I theoretically appreciate, I think they have gone a bit too far. I felt uncomfortable with "fewer Moroccans", which I consider racist: for me, this is about culture and values, not about people. It is safe to say that the PVV is to my right on issues like immigration and Islam. I will not be voting for them next year.

It is safe to say that the FPÖ is far more right-wing than the PVV. I despise their apologetic view on Austria's nazi past and on Dolfuß. I don't like their offensive advertorials and I particularly don't like Strache's antics, "buying three beers" and stuff like that. Moreover, Dutch nationalism is almost always anti-nazi, and no one in the PVV thinks the German occupation was something good. Austrian nationalism, on the other hand, is often pro-nazi, and the FPÖ is rather open about it. Stenzel might say different things, but it remains to be seen whether that difference is only based on rhetoric, and given the fact that she is in the FPÖ and not in the PVV, I am skeptical. Her being halachically Jewish also doesn't do anything for me.

So in this case, I prefer the "devil I know", which is to say, the next uninspiring, bland, unpopular, inoffensive SPÖ apparatchik. I don't like Griss's stance on swearing in an FPÖ chancellor (I think it should be up to the voters who takes the lead in forming a coalition) and I think the SPÖ guy will likely be capable, at least at not making things worse.

This is actually where I see a faint glimmer of hope: this election just might lead to increased polarisation between left and right (and within those camps, SPÖVP, who stage polarisation only to find a cushy, do-nothing settlement no longer being the leading force). Eventually we might see a realignment to Scandinavian-style bloc-based politics. (Wishful thinking, I know.) . Indeed, grand coalition politicians have in recent days repeatedly expressed a desire to prevent a 'camp-based election' (the horror...), precisely because they get this.

In that respect, the Netherlands and Austria are obviously in a fairly similar position. I'd very much prefer Denmark-style bloc politics to become a thing in the Netherlands, because our coalitions are generally as "unideological" and compromise-driven as the monstruous SPÖVP coalitions. However, that takes responsible parties to become successful. Danish parties are responsible. But the FPÖ isn't DF and the ÖVP isn't V. The Danish political camps include the best of both worlds. Austrian political camps would include the worst of both worlds, and they would both radicalize over time. That is not a good perspective. But I understand very well that someone on the Austrian left would prefer bloc politics to the current situation. Still, I think Austrian parties might be useless and Austrian politicians might be boring as hell, but policy-wise, this coalition is not too bad (don't let Tender hear this).

[Tender Branson]

Not Moser, not Gudenus, not Stenzel ...

The FPÖ officially nominated Norbert Hofer (44) as their Presidential candidate today.

More tomorrow.

[Omega21]

Not Moser, not Gudenus, not Stenzel ...

The FPÖ officially nominated Norbert Hofer (44) as their Presidential candidate today.

More tomorrow.

How "right" is he, In comparison to Gudenus for example?