Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

Terrible news for VdB coming out of Styria right now:

http://derstandard.at/2000047407786/Kapfenberg-Die-Zukunft-des-Voest-Standortes-steht-auf-dem-Spiel

The VOEST, Austria's biggest steel company might pull out of the state and close a major plant there "in the near future", because of rising energy prices. They might open a steel plant in a cheaper country, like ... Mexico.

The plant has 3.000 workers and if true, Styria (which already trended strongly to Hofer in the original runoff), might end up like West Virginia if this story gets more headlines in the next weeks ...

The "Standard" has an article about it today:

http://derstandard.at/2000047687246/Vom-Rust-Belt-bis-Kapfenberg-Warum-die-Arbeiterschaft-nach-rechts

"From the Rust Belt to Kapfenberg: Why the working class shifts to the Right."

[Tender Branson]

An OSCE team of 4 will monitor the election on Dec. 4

The team includes poll monitors from Denmark, the UK, the Ukraine and Belarus.

They were invited for monitoring a few months ago.

http://derstandard.at/2000047698549/OSZE-Wahlbeobachter-kommen-zu-viert-auf-Oesterreich-Visite

[Tender Branson]

Got my postal ballot today.

After the original runoff in May, I was undecided if I should go back to precinct voting. But I still have extremely great confidence in election officials to count every postal ballot, no matter what the far-right conspiracy theorists think.

Besides, I wanted to see the new design of the postal ballot - after the old design was scrapped because of "glue-gate" and a new company was used to print the ballots.

[Tender Branson]

Voted. Ballot is already in the mail ...

[Tender Branson]

The first of the 4 TV debates starts today at 8:15pm:

http://www.oe24.at/tv/news/oe24-TV-im-Livestream-24-Stunden-News/251215975

[ApatheticAustrian]

atm i am pretty sure hofer is going to win, since beating him was only possible through creating a much more complicated alliance than hofer's one and december is going to decrease the turnout for sure. (on a second thought, the low turnout thing cuts both ways, since green supporters and conservative VDB voters are both known to vote fot sure.)

[Tender Branson]

Even if you don't like Hofer, his zingers against VdB are often funny or even effective.

Like yesterday, in the ORF's evening news interview where he was grilled for 20 minutes and at one point said:

"VdB first started his career as a Communist in the Communist Party of Austria. Then he joined the SPÖ (Social Democrats) where he forgot to pay his membership fee and got expelled for it. He then joined the Green Party and now is *colourless."

* the term "farblos", which he used, literally means colourless in German. But it actually means "bland". (VdB refers to himself as an "independent candidate", therefore "colourless".)

[ApatheticAustrian]

hofer is a young, attractive, well-bred and well-tested, soft-speaking candidate, practicing stuff like NLP very natural......

VDB on the other side is amazingly authentic too, imho and also possesses a great dry humour, even while he more often states unscripted stuff.

[Ljube]

Guys, keep us informed about the progress of the election campaign of the real Austrian Hofer against the bland, farblos fraud VdB.

By the way, when I offered a Hillary-Trump bet to my friends, there were many takers, but when I offered a Hofer-VdB bet to a friend of mine who has businesses in Austria (the only Hillbot among my friends), he refused.

[Tender Branson]

The first 20 minutes of the debate is now over, it was mostly about Donald Trump.

Both candidates are positioning themselves as extreme centrists who'd like to please every single voter and at one point, VdB said he also had "concerns about Hillary" after attacking Trump for 5 minutes. He closed with "Let's give Trump a few months first ..."

Then Hofer got asked if he is a Trump-fan or not. He replied "No, I'm not - his campaign style was awful and sexist and personal and unlike what our campaign here is right now".

Hofer called Angela Merkel "good on the economy", but a "disaster on immigration" and tied VdB to her on the immigration issue.

[Tender Branson]

The good thing is that we'll get a representative Gallup poll after the debate to see who won ...

[Tender Branson]

As I expected, VdB now says he'll likely sign CETA if it passes parliament (after saying for months that he won't sign it). Even if the Greens are voting against it in parliament.

Hofer still says he won't sign CETA. He said the Austrian voters should be asked first in a referendum before he signs the treaty.

Side fact: 80% of Austrians are opposed to CETA, according to recent polls.

[Tender Branson]

Hofer just referenced the poll results I just posted, saying: "Austrians are overwhelmingly against CETA. Whenever the elites move away that far from the average person and their views, the elites increasingly get voted out of office."

[Tender Branson]

Debate moderator:

"Mr. Hofer: Are you the Austrian Trump ? Aside from your hair, your fancy hair, you sound like Donald Trump on trade."

Hofer: "No. I am not Trump."



LOL.

[Tender Branson]

Hofer to VdB: "Have you always been such a snitch, even in school ?"

[Tender Branson]

Question from the audience:

"Do you believe in God and that Austria remains Christian ?"

Hofer: "Yes, I believe in God and that our values have come from Judaism, Christianity and Humanism."

Will you add "So help me God." at your swearing in ceremony ?

Hofer: "Yes" (btw, he even has "so help me god" on his latest campaign posters)

VdB: "No"

[Tender Branson]

VdB: "I do not want a President who belongs to a Far-Right fraternity."

Hofer: "The Young Greens do not believe Austria is a nation. They believe Austria is an invented piece. I believe Austria is a nation. And I also do not want a Communist as President."

[Ljube]

Hofer is clearly winning the debate. And winning it BIG.

[Tender Branson]

Hofer is clearly winning the debate. And winning it BIG.

Let's wait what the post-debate Gallup poll shows first ...

[Omega21]

VdB: "I do not want a President who belongs to a Far-Right fraternity."

Hofer: "The Young Greens do not believe Austria is a nation. They believe Austria is an invented piece. I believe Austria is a nation. And I also do not want a Communist as President."

He also showed a printed copy of the "KOMMUNISTISCHE PARTEI ÖSTERREICHS" Website's post "supporting" VdB.

[Tender Branson]

Hofer wants early federal elections next year (instead of the regular 2018) if the SPÖVP government "cannot get their act together in the next 4-5 months ..."

VdB argues that Hofer has repeatedly played with fire and instability by saying he wants to fire the government so that new elections can be held.

Hofer then argues the government is incompetent ...

[Tender Branson]

Question from the audience:

"In which case would you fire the government ?"

Hofer: "In the case where the gov. breaks the law, security and constitution - which was the case last year when it allowed hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants to move through Austria, including criminals and terrorists. We are a LAW & ORDER state and this has to be upheld."

VdB shakes his head and argues like a standard center-left politician ...

[Ljube]

Hofer is clearly winning the debate. And winning it BIG.

Let's wait what the post-debate Gallup poll shows first ...

Well, we should know better by now than to trust the rigged polls.

[Tender Branson]

Hofer: "Half of our prison population is made up of foreigners. This bothers me a lot. And it costs a lot. We need to make sure that foreign criminals are not crowding our prisons and that repatriation agreements with their countries of origin are made. This also is true for the thousands of economic migrants which are costing us a lot and who have come with the real refugees in need. They need to be deported back to their countries of origin after the deals are made."

[Mike88]

Interesting! Thought that only my country's Presidents could dissolve Parliament and fire the government if they thought was necessary. Did what we call "the atomic bomb", the dismissal of the government, ever happened in Austria?