Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Ljube]

Interesting! Thought that only my country's Presidents could dissolve Parliament and fire the government if they thought was necessary. Did what we call "the atomic bomb", the dismissal of the government, ever happened in Austria?

It did!

Beim Anschluss.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting! Thought that only my country's Presidents could dissolve Parliament and fire the government if they thought was necessary. Did what we call "the atomic bomb", the dismissal of the government, ever happened in Austria?

No.

[Omega21]

Question from the audience:

"In which case would you fire the government ?"

Hofer: "In the case where the gov. breaks the law, security and constitution - which was the case last year when it allowed hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants to move through Austria, including criminals and terrorists. We are a LAW & ORDER state and this has to be upheld."

VdB shakes his head and argues like a standard center-left politician ...

Reading these comments I would have thought you are voting for Hofer

[Tender Branson]

Question from the audience:

"In which case would you fire the government ?"

Hofer: "In the case where the gov. breaks the law, security and constitution - which was the case last year when it allowed hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants to move through Austria, including criminals and terrorists. We are a LAW & ORDER state and this has to be upheld."

VdB shakes his head and argues like a standard center-left politician ...

Reading these comments I would have thought you are voting for Hofer

Nope.

[ApatheticAustrian]

this is only funny if you realize, that the FPO is the real "godless" party in austria.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting! Thought that only my country's Presidents could dissolve Parliament and fire the government if they thought was necessary. Did what we call "the atomic bomb", the dismissal of the government, ever happened in Austria?

To go a bit deeper: It has never happened so far, because every President used to be a traditional, non-interventionist President like it was outlined in the Constitution before the 1929 amendments (which upgraded the powers of the President on behalf of lobbying from the Christian-Socials. The Socialists still had a couple of checks and balances included in the amendments, so that the office of President wouldn't get too powerful). Since then, all Presidents only acted as notary to the parliament, mostly signing any law they passed. Nobody knows what powers a President Hofer could actually have as President. He could have much bigger powers if he wants to be a non-traditional more active President, but would probably be reigned in by the checks and balances system.

[Tender Branson]

Hofer: "This election will be clean, clean, cleaner. I, nor the FPÖ, will challenge the result again."

[Omega21]

Hofer: "This election will be clean, clean, cleaner. I, nor the FPÖ, will challenge the result again."

Both Candidates are against Legalizing marijuana.

Hofer is for Gay-partnership, but against Marriage. VdB is for Marriage.


Hofer is ahead in the Oe24 Voting, as expected.

[Tender Branson]

Hofer wins the debate 54-46.

Hofer is more likeable by 60-40.

Hofer more competent by 55-45.

Hofer more trustworthy by 59-41.

[Tender Branson]

Pretty damning results for the VdB camp, but this is only one debate of four.

And if debates really mattered, Hillary would be President now ...

[Omega21]

Pretty damning results for the VdB camp, but this is only one debate of four.

And if debates really mattered, Hillary would be President now ...

I think the "Cuz you'd be in Jail" won Trump at least 500k Votes..

[Mike88]

Interesting! Thought that only my country's Presidents could dissolve Parliament and fire the government if they thought was necessary. Did what we call "the atomic bomb", the dismissal of the government, ever happened in Austria?

To go a bit deeper: It has never happened so far, because every President used to be a traditional, non-interventionist President like it was outlined in the Constitution before the 1929 amendments (which upgraded the powers of the President on behalf of lobbying from the Christian-Socials. The Socialists still had a couple of checks and balances included in the amendments, so that the office of President wouldn't get too powerful). Since then, all Presidents only acted as notary to the parliament, mostly signing any law they passed. Nobody knows what powers a President Hofer could actually have as President. He could have much bigger powers if he wants to be a non-traditional more active President, but would probably be reigned in by the checks and balances system.

Very interesting Tender, thank you. Here in Portugal, the dismissal of the government was used only once and it was, and still is, very controversial. Perhaps a Hofer presidency will be very simillar to a normal presidency here in Portugal. Here, Presidents have the power, and very often use it, of vetoing laws, aproving or not ministers appointed by the PM and comment on the government performence. From what i've read from Hofer, he fits perfectly in what a normal role of President in Portugal is. For us this is normal, but for you guys it will probably be a bumpy presidency.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting! Thought that only my country's Presidents could dissolve Parliament and fire the government if they thought was necessary. Did what we call "the atomic bomb", the dismissal of the government, ever happened in Austria?

To go a bit deeper: It has never happened so far, because every President used to be a traditional, non-interventionist President like it was outlined in the Constitution before the 1929 amendments (which upgraded the powers of the President on behalf of lobbying from the Christian-Socials. The Socialists still had a couple of checks and balances included in the amendments, so that the office of President wouldn't get too powerful). Since then, all Presidents only acted as notary to the parliament, mostly signing any law they passed. Nobody knows what powers a President Hofer could actually have as President. He could have much bigger powers if he wants to be a non-traditional more active President, but would probably be reigned in by the checks and balances system.

Very interesting Tender, thank you. Here in Portugal, the dismissal of the government was used only once and it was, and still is, very controversial. Perhaps a Hofer presidency will be very simillar to a normal presidency here in Portugal. Here, Presidents have the power, and very often use it, of vetoing laws, aproving or not ministers appointed by the PM and comment on the government performence. From what i've read from Hofer, he fits perfectly in what a normal role of President in Portugal is. For us this is normal, but for you guys it will probably be a bumpy presidency.

Summed up, yes. Like you said it, it would be normal in Portugal and abnormal here, a departure from the sleepiness that our Presidents have shown so far.

Just imagine what would happen here and internationally if a President Hofer invites Presidents Trump and Putin and Assad to Vienna for a "peace conference".

The European Left would converge in Vienna to nuke the whole city and turn it into a protest wasteland ...

[Ljube]

Pretty damning results for the VdB camp, but this is only one debate of four.

And if debates really mattered, Hillary would be President now ...

I think the "Cuz you'd be in Jail" won Trump at least 500k Votes..

I'm sure it did. I loved it!

[Tender Branson]

New "Unique Research" poll, conducted for ATV and Heute newspaper (Nov. 7-16, phone and internet):



A majority of the undecideds in the "raw vote" (on the left) are women and SPÖ/ÖVP voters.

Vote by subgroups:

Men: 52-48 Hofer
Women: 55-45 VdB

16-29 year olds: 52-48 VdB
30-49 year olds: 56-44 Hofer
50 years and older: 57-43 VdB

With high school degree: 68-32 VdB
Without high school degree: 56-44 Hofer

FPÖ-voters: 98-2 Hofer
Green-voters: 97-3 VdB
SPÖ-voters: 84-16 VdB
NEOS-voters: 75-25 VdB
ÖVP-voters: 70-30 VdB

Projected turnout:

69% say they are certain to vote
11% say they are likely to vote
  9% are still thinking about it
  9% are unlikely to vote

What do you think about Donald Trump's victory ?

34% Agree/See it positively
62% Disagree/See it negatively

Hofer voters: 60-37  Agree/see it positively
VdB voters: 88-8 Disagree/see it negatively

Is Donald Trump right on many issues ?

44% Agree/See it positively
51% Disagree/See it negatively

Hofer voters: 71-26  Agree/see it positively
VdB voters: 77-21 Disagree/see it negatively

Do you think there is a "silent majority" in Austria that has been forgotten by the political elite ?

70% Agree/See it positively
27% Disagree/See it negatively

Hofer voters: 75-23  Agree/see it positively
VdB voters: 63-33 Agree/see it positively

Does Austria need a guy like Donald Trump who will "drain the swamp" ?

44% Agree/See it positively
53% Disagree/See it negatively

Hofer voters: 69-28  Agree/see it positively
VdB voters: 28-72 Disagree/see it negatively

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/400-000-Unentschlossene-entscheiden-die-Hofburg-Wahl;art23660,1370243

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/44-Prozent-wollen-Typ-wie-Trump-fuer-OEsterreich;art23660,1370288

[Tender Branson]

Here is how the number of eligible voters changed between May and now, by state:



Austria's total population is around 8.78 million in December, which means 72.9% of the population can vote.

15.4% of the population cannot vote because they are foreign citizens. The remaining 11.7% are Austrian citizens who have not reached the voting age of 16 yet.

As a comparison, 231.6 of the US population of 325 million was able to vote (71.3%). If the US had the same voting age as Austria (16), it would also have about the same percentage of voting eligible persons: 73%.

[Tender Branson]

VdB out with his final poster campaign:



"Vote ! Not wonder/be surprised. For the reputation of Austria."

In the yellow, it says: "More than ever !"



"Rationality/sanity instead of extremes. Our President of the Middle/Centre."



"Our President. For the reputation of Austria."

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer has a 48-43 favorable rating in the latest OGM/APA index (conducted Nov. 15-16).

He's the 5th most popular federal politician in Austria right now, out of 25 politicians asked.

VdB was not asked (not a current, federal politician) - but he likely has similar ratings.

[Tender Branson]

A report from Hofer's hometown and his success in rural Austria:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/austrias-far-stokes-fears-wealthy-countryside-124513174.html

[Ljube]

New "Unique Research" poll, conducted for ATV and Heute newspaper (Nov. 7-16, phone and internet):



A majority of the undecideds in the "raw vote" (on the left) are women and SPÖ/ÖVP voters.

Vote by subgroups:

Men: 52-48 Hofer
Women: 55-45 VdB

16-29 year olds: 52-48 VdB
30-49 year olds: 56-44 Hofer
50 years and older: 57-43 VdB

With high school degree: 68-32 VdB
Without high school degree: 56-44 Hofer

FPÖ-voters: 98-2 Hofer
Green-voters: 97-3 VdB
SPÖ-voters: 84-16 VdB
NEOS-voters: 75-25 VdB
ÖVP-voters: 70-30 VdB

Projected turnout:

69% say they are certain to vote
11% say they are likely to vote
  9% are still thinking about it
  9% are unlikely to vote

What do you think about Donald Trump's victory ?

34% Agree/See it positively
62% Disagree/See it negatively

Hofer voters: 60-37  Agree/see it positively
VdB voters: 88-8 Disagree/see it negatively

Is Donald Trump right on many issues ?

44% Agree/See it positively
51% Disagree/See it negatively

Hofer voters: 71-26  Agree/see it positively
VdB voters: 77-21 Disagree/see it negatively

Do you think there is a "silent majority" in Austria that has been forgotten by the political elite ?

70% Agree/See it positively
27% Disagree/See it negatively

Hofer voters: 75-23  Agree/see it positively
VdB voters: 63-33 Agree/see it positively

Does Austria need a guy like Donald Trump who will "drain the swamp" ?

44% Agree/See it positively
53% Disagree/See it negatively

Hofer voters: 69-28  Agree/see it positively
VdB voters: 28-72 Disagree/see it negatively

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/400-000-Unentschlossene-entscheiden-die-Hofburg-Wahl;art23660,1370243

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/44-Prozent-wollen-Typ-wie-Trump-fuer-OEsterreich;art23660,1370288

The very definition of a rigged poll.

[Tender Branson]

Would you please explain why you think this poll is rigged ?

There is no indication that Austrian polls are rigged, at all. Virtually all pollsters here are independent and not close to a party. And before the May runoff, the polls even showed a very slight Hofer lead on average and he lost the election ...

[rob in cal]

  I love how in the photo accompanying the article about Pinkafeld there are mountains in the background, giving the impression that Burgenland is like the Tyrol or something.

[Tender Branson]

  I love how in the photo accompanying the article about Pinkafeld there are mountains in the background, giving the impression that Burgenland is like the Tyrol or something.

You are actually not wrong: The picture is from "gettypictures" and shows sheep in Telfs (Tyrol), where the Bilderberg conference took place.

[Ljube]

Would you please explain why you think this poll is rigged ?

There is no indication that Austrian polls are rigged, at all. Virtually all pollsters here are independent and not close to a party. And before the May runoff, the polls even showed a very slight Hofer lead on average and he lost the election ...

OK. Trust those rigged polls if you wish. Obviously you haven't learned a lesson (Brexit, Trump,...)

[Tender Branson]

A priest from Salzburg was fired recently, after giving a Hofer-critical sermon last Sunday in front of hundreds of people.

He called the FPÖ a "blue spawn/brood" for example ...