Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[aross]

No, I was talking about the ideology of the candidates rather than their electorate. In no Western country do actual far-leftists, complete with the intersectionality shebang, make up a sizeable proportion of the population, and certainly not in Austria. To be fair, it would be a mischaracterization to say Van der Bellen is such a far leftist, but at the same time he is all about the "Refugees Welcome" campaign, which, I think, is detrimental to Austria -- and one could have known that before Bataclan and Cologne.

I am afraid that in, say, fifteen years, politics in Western Europe will be dominated by two camps: the anti free-speech, anti-Western, progressive, intersectional far left on the one hand, more similar to what's happening on US campuses than to European Green parties, and by the racist "alt-right" in its newest reincarnation on the other hand, ideologically more similar to movements like "Generation Identity" and 4chan-/pol/ than to, say, the Danish People's Party. Both are horrible, and the FPÖ's right (i.e. Gudenus) provides an excellent insight in how this will look like.

I see. I certainly agree that "Refugees Welcome" is rather silly - Peter Pilz, former Leader of the Greens (coincidentally one of my favourite Austrian politicians) put it rather well:

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Sure, I stood there at the station, handing out packages, but I get this is by no means a permanent solution. I don't think inviting third-world citizens here to be, in many cases, exploited for their labour while at the same time pushing down wages and jobs for the poor of Europe is a particularly left-wing idea, but whatever, I'm preaching to the converted here ^^.

I'm not sure I agree on this foreshadowing any sort of realignment, as this is still an election based on personal votes and anti-Grand Coalition sentiment and, as you say, VdB is not of the sort you find on US university campuses. (Though I certainly dislike - just like with the Greens in general - his Bobo-focused pitch, and, in particular his come-what-may pro-EU stance.) Fundamentally, surely a future "left" as you describe it - and I'm not sure it could be called that - would be nowhere near government in any European state, if present popular feeling is anything to go by. Even if you're suggesting everyone from the right-wing establishment to the left-wing working class will have gone over to this new right, I think we're still to power-hungry to simply let the right dominate.

In short: because I am extremely skeptical of the FPÖ.

First of all, I am not a big supporter of the PVV. I voted for them only once, in a second-order election, and while it is true that their "brand" of new-right politics ("Judeo-Christian values and such", and their pro-LGBT views) is certainly something I theoretically appreciate, I think they have gone a bit too far. I felt uncomfortable with "fewer Moroccans", which I consider racist: for me, this is about culture and values, not about people. It is safe to say that the PVV is to my right on issues like immigration and Islam. I will not be voting for them next year.

It is safe to say that the FPÖ is far more right-wing than the PVV. I despise their apologetic view on Austria's nazi past and on Dolfuß. I don't like their offensive advertorials and I particularly don't like Strache's antics, "buying three beers" and stuff like that. Moreover, Dutch nationalism is almost always anti-nazi, and no one in the PVV thinks the German occupation was something good. Austrian nationalism, on the other hand, is often pro-nazi, and the FPÖ is rather open about it. Stenzel might say different things, but it remains to be seen whether that difference is only based on rhetoric, and given the fact that she is in the FPÖ and not in the PVV, I am skeptical. Her being halachically Jewish also doesn't do anything for me.

So in this case, I prefer the "devil I know", which is to say, the next uninspiring, bland, unpopular, inoffensive SPÖ apparatchik. I don't like Griss's stance on swearing in an FPÖ chancellor (I think it should be up to the voters who takes the lead in forming a coalition) and I think the SPÖ guy will likely be capable, at least at not making things worse.

I'm sorry, "Judeo-Christian values and such" was a unfortunate way of phrasing it. It seems you got what I meant though - basically, the PVV before its present turn to the right. I would have said that Stenzel is very much not a FPÖ stooge with her own views (indeed, her massive ego is a big problem for her), but that is now irrelevant, as she is not the candidate, and Hofer is precisely that stooge.
Just for the record, the FPÖ are not Dolfuß apologists, after all, he locked their ancestors up. They mostly don't talk about him, but if asked, will say he was a terrible dictator, and, if cheekily-minded, slip in that he too had concentration camps and demand that Nazis be added to anymemorials for the resistance.

This is actually where I see a faint glimmer of hope: this election just might lead to increased polarisation between left and right (and within those camps, SPÖVP, who stage polarisation only to find a cushy, do-nothing settlement no longer being the leading force). Eventually we might see a realignment to Scandinavian-style bloc-based politics. (Wishful thinking, I know.) . Indeed, grand coalition politicians have in recent days repeatedly expressed a desire to prevent a 'camp-based election' (the horror...), precisely because they get this.

In that respect, the Netherlands and Austria are obviously in a fairly similar position. I'd very much prefer Denmark-style bloc politics to become a thing in the Netherlands, because our coalitions are generally as "unideological" and compromise-driven as the monstruous SPÖVP coalitions. However, that takes responsible parties to become successful. Danish parties are responsible. But the FPÖ isn't DF and the ÖVP isn't V. The Danish political camps include the best of both worlds. Austrian political camps would include the worst of both worlds, and they would both radicalize over time. That is not a good perspective. But I understand very well that someone on the Austrian left would prefer bloc politics to the current situation. Still, I think Austrian parties might be useless and Austrian politicians might be boring as hell, but policy-wise, this coalition is not too bad (don't let Tender hear this).

I would like to think that principle (giving people a clear choice of government rather than coalition-building with its tendency to distort the will of the voters - this is the British genes and political instinct talking, I think) plays a large role as well, but yes, the desire to see a genuine left-wing government is clearly a major part of this wish.

In general, I would say that bloc politics would likely force parties to become more responsible, as they would actually have to put into practice many of their promises and, in the case of SPÖ and ÖVP, learn to deal with being in opposition. Again, this is quite possibly largely wishful thinking.
"Not so bad" is a question of perspective. Nothing disastrous happens, because nothing happens, and if something does, it turns out to be nothing within a week of so. But of course, hardly any progress is made, which feeds into the FPÖ narrative of Austria falling behind over time.

[Tender Branson]

Not Moser, not Gudenus, not Stenzel ...

The FPÖ officially nominated Norbert Hofer (44) as their Presidential candidate today.

More tomorrow.

How "right" is he, In comparison to Gudenus for example?

A few quick facts about Norbert Hofer:



Hofer (44) was born in Styria, but lives in Southern Burgenland and has 4 kids. He's currently the 3rd President of the Austrian Parliament. Just last month he ruled out a candidacy for President, saying "he felt too young for the office" (but now he was apparently persuaded by the FPÖ's core leadership who were uncomfortable with the ÖVP "defector" Stenzel as their candidate).

By the media he's seen as the FPÖ's "Mr. Nice Guy" and comes across as very likeable in interviews. He is also described as a "non-radical" or non-controversial by the media.

In 2003, Hofer (who's a trained aviation technician) had a severe paragliding accident - which left him partially paralyzed at first, but he then recovered. But he now uses a stick for walking.

(Last week, an aide to SPÖ candidate Hundstorfer posted a tweet comparing Hofer to a "cripple", after which Hundstorfer apologized and removed the aide from his campaign).

His preferred topics in parliament as an MP are environmental issues and standing up for people with disabilities.

[Tender Branson]

First poll after all 5 major candidates have announced for President (Gallup, conducted yesterday):



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Van-der-Bellen-Erster-Hofer-vorerst-Letzter/221873446

[Tender Branson]

The first Hofer presidential campaign poster from their launch event:



"Flagge zeigen" literally means something like "to nail one's colours to the mast" or "to fly the flag".

In reality it means something like "getting a spine and take a stand against foreign interests/influences in a patriotic way".

"Wahrheit, Freiheit, Heimatliebe !" means "Truth, Freedom and Love for the Homeland !"

On top it's "FPÖ - Die soziale Heimatpartei" ("FPÖ - The social homeland party")

[Tender Branson]

Next Tuesday, STATISTICS Austria will release the preliminary population numbers for Jan. 1, 2016 and it will likely show that Austria's population has grown by 100.000-120.000 last year.

From 8.58 million to ~8.70 million people.

That's an increase of 1.1-1.3% (all-time growth record).

Austria is not only a magnet for asylum seekers from all over the world, but there's also a huge surplus of citizens from other EU countries that are moving here (especially Germans and Eastern Europeans). Plus, there's also a small natural surplus (more births than deaths) which is getting bigger and bigger these days thanks to African/Middle-Eastern immigrant women with high fertility.

Interesting side fact: Vienna has likely grown by about 40.000 people last year (+2.2%), Graz by 6.000 people (+2%) and Innsbruck even had 3% growth based on their city website (+4.000 people).

[DavidB.]

Hofer likes to talk about environmental issues? As in: they don't matter?

I'll reply to aross later 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So let's say Van Der Bellen becomes president and FPÖ then becomes the largest party in the next general election and ÖVP agrees to enter into a coalition with them. How would that whole situation be handled, if VdB stands firm on his promise to not to swear in Strache as chancellor, how that crisis be handled? Is there a way for parliament to force the president to accept the majority's chancellor candidate, or would it cause new elections, or would the whole thing just end in a stalemate where it isn't possible to namne a new government?

[aross]

His preferred topics in parliament as an MP are environmental issues and standing up for people with disabilities.

Well, that's one way of putting it. More specifically, he is concerned by Chemtrails, having asked several parliamentary questions and spoken at length about them. Of course, given that pseudoscience is seemingly widely accepted among Austrians (cf. for example Tender's poll on page 1 which has 60% trusting alternative medicine), this is unlikely to pose a major problem for him.

I wonder how much of Hofer's low numbers are based on the fact that basically no-one has heard of him. I haven't seen a poll for awareness, but I do recall one which asked people to associate candidates with emotions such as trust and anger. Hofer polled last and in single figures for every single emotion.

[DavidB.]

Well, that's one way of putting it. More specifically, he is concerned by Chemtrails, having asked several parliamentary questions and spoken at length about them. Of course, given that pseudoscience is seemingly widely accepted among Austrians (cf. for example Tender's poll on page 1 which has 60% trusting alternative medicine), this is unlikely to pose a major problem for him.

Lol. That's mindbogglingly stupid. I already had a feeling that his environmental concerns were not related to pollution or deforestation. Is he a climate change denier as well?

[aross]

So let's say Van Der Bellen becomes president and FPÖ then becomes the largest party in the next general election and ÖVP agrees to enter into a coalition with them. How would that whole situation be handled, if VdB stands firm on his promise to not to swear in Strache as chancellor, how that crisis be handled? Is there a way for parliament to force the president to accept the majority's chancellor candidate, or would it cause new elections, or would the whole thing just end in a stalemate where it isn't possible to namne a new government?

The constitutional situation, just for the record: The President can appoint any person eligible to be elected to the National Council to the office of Chancellor, the Chancellor then nominates the ministers. He may dismiss the whole Government at any time, the dismissal of a single minister requires the consent of the Chancellor. (Article 70 Bundes-Verfassungsgesetz) When a government has resigned or been dismissed, but the President has not yet appointed a replacement, the previous Government forms the interim Government (Art. 71). The National Council may at any time express their lack of confidence in the government or individual ministers. Such a motion requires a quorum of half the members, but no qualified majority. All affected ministers must be dismissed by the President immediately (Art. 74).

The Federal Assembly (joint session of the National Council and the Federal Council, a upper house appointed by the states which tends to have the ÖVP in a slightly stronger position, but is usually irrelevant) may, if called upon by the National Council, by a majority of two-thirds of members present and voting with a quorum of half the members, call a national referendum over the retention of the President in office. (Note that this is not impeachment - no reasons need to be given.) The referendum is decided by simple majority. Should the President be retained in office, his term is extended to last a further 6 years (though the overall term limit of 12 years still applies) and the National Council is dissolved for new elections. (Art. 60(6))

The President may dissolve the National Council, but not twice for the same reason (lol). The National Council may also dissolve itself. (Art. 29)

The probable actual situation: Basically, I still think the by far most likely scenario is VdB backing down. He's trumpeted this position a lot less in the last few days, calling it "an essentially hypothetical question" (which is manifestly untrue, but whatever). We would probably see a situation like with Klestil in 1999, that is, negotiating behind the President's back and then confronting him with the completed deal. Likely, the solution would be the same - the government is appointed, the President makes his disapproval clear and a few of the most offensive ministers are excluded. If VdB actually stands firm and Strache wants to make a point, he might also try calling early elections. That two-thirds majority - even with the distorting effect of the Federal Council - is out of reach, however. Any possible coalition partners are unlikely to be forthcoming unless VdB goes nuts and tries to appoint a Greens-only government or something. So basically, then we have a stare-off which might well drag on a bit, but VdB is bound to lose as he's the one up against the wall and, well, pretty clearly in the wrong.

[Tender Branson]

Until now, about 15 non-party candidates have announced their intention to run for President.

Of course, virtually none of them will be on the ballot because they have to collect 6.000 signatures from Austrian voters in only a month-long time span until March 18.

And collecting signatures is really hard, because unlike in the US, you cannot simply collect signatures of voters on the street.

If you are a voter and want to sign a petition for a candidate, you need to go to your town hall where you live and sign the petition in front of a municipal clerk who will stamp it. Then you can either send the petition to the candidate yourself or the clerk will.

Which further means there are hardly any invalid petitions/signatures in Austria, compared with the US - where even outside groups are allowed to collect signatures for candidates.

Because of that, I think only Griss will receive the 6.000 signatures and maybe the Austrian Trump (= Richard Lugner, if he runs). I believe the EU-Exit guy has no chances either ...

[Tender Branson]

Presidential candidate Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) said today that while he won't sign any "fairness agreement" on campaign spending with the other candidates, he won't engage in dirty campaigning either and that the FPÖ won't spend more than 2 Mio. € on his run.

The legal limit is 7 Mio. € per candidate, SPÖ and ÖVP said they will spend 3-4 million €, the FPÖ 2 million, the Greens 2.5 million and Griss 1 million.

Good to see that they are not wasting the taxpayer money for once.

[Flocke]

OGM poll for Kurier:

Alexander Van der Bellen 26%
Rudolf Hundstorfer           23%
Irmgard Griss                    20%
Norbert Hofer                    17%
Andreas Khol                    14%

[Cranberry]

While probably unlikely, a Hundstorfer vs VdB runoff would be a great sight!

[Tender Branson]

Looks like both Hofer and Dracula Hundstorfer got an announcement bounce.

Hofer is relatively unknown (name recognition = 35%), so he probably has the biggest potential to grow and reach the runoff - especially because the migrant issue is going to dominate in the next months.

Griss is eating heavily into the ÖVP-vote, which means it's unlikely that Khol makes the runoff.

Griss and Van der Bellen are going to drop off significantly though in the coming months.

Currently, I'd say that Hofer will definitely get into the runoff and there's a tie between Van der Bellen and Hundstorfer for the 2nd runoff spot.

[aross]

Gallup/Österreich poll:
33% FPÖ (-1)
23% ÖVP (+1)
22% SPÖ (0)
11% Greens (0)
7% NEOS (0)
4% Others (0)

Compared to here

First poll after all 5 major candidates have announced for President (Gallup, conducted yesterday):

you can clearly see the massive differences between the presidential contest and party standings. On Thursday, Gallup had the combined left candidates on 50%, whereas the leftist parties' support is only 33% (40% with the highly dubious inclusion of NEOS). So basically, at least at present, large amounts of conservatives (and almost all NEOS supporters, though a few might go for Griss) are planning to vote for VdB. (Anecdotally, this matches up - even a rather posh friend who wants to privatise hospitals and schools(!) says she will vote for him, although support for him will of course be higher here in Vienna.)

[aross]

Looks like both Hofer and Dracula Hundstorfer got an announcement bounce.

Hofer is relatively unknown (name recognition = 35%), so he probably has the biggest potential to grow and reach the runoff - especially because the migrant issue is going to dominate in the next months.

Griss is eating heavily into the ÖVP-vote, which means it's unlikely that Khol makes the runoff.

Griss and Van der Bellen are going to drop off significantly though in the coming months.

Currently, I'd say that Hofer will definitely get into the runoff and there's a tie between Van der Bellen and Hundstorfer for the 2nd runoff spot.

Griss's campaign has been a car crash for the past few weeks, she's in the absurd situation where not only is she running an anti-establishment campaign while quite clearly being of the establishment herself, but has also become precisely the spineless politican she is supposedly campaigning against. She hasn't even decided her position on the ever-recurring question of appointing a FPÖ-chancellor yet. Now she's come out against conscription and the government's upper limit for refugees, which suggests she's trying to get the left-liberal vote which is already colonised by Van der Bellen. Never mind she's doing this barely a month after practically begging for the FPÖ's endorsement. No idea what her niche is supposed to be at this stage. I think she will crash very soon and probably have to work hard not to go into single figures.

Khol's traditionalist conservatism secures him the ÖVP base's vote, but not really anything else much. He is hardly the most inspiring of speakers and extraordinarily old-fashioned in his manners and public appearance. His only potential is to his right, but FPÖ voters are hardly going to want to vote for what is, in essence, still a grand coalition candidate.

Hofer is difficult to predict because, as you say, he is still largely unknown (btw, could you post this poll that gives name recognition scores?). Again, though, he really isn't a particularly inspiring candidate and has absolutely nothing personal to campaign on. He has all of Strache's negatives with none of his charismatic positives. His success is dependent on the campaign being very party-focused and the asylum crisis getting worse. (Not hard to see the last one, admittedly.)

All of which has lead me to conclude just while writing this that a VdB-Hundstorfer runoff as envisaged by that poll really isn't as absurd as one at first might think, because, basically, none of the right-wing candidates are really any good. (Though Hofer is the best of a bad bunch.) Such a scenario requires: 1) a non-awful campaign from Hundstorfer, 2) the right to remain rather badly split, 3) the left-right balance to be no worse than, say 45-55.

Of course, this dearth of good candidates might also lead to a surge for someone yet to enter the race. A TV personality, say...



please send help

[Tender Branson]

Hofer is difficult to predict because, as you say, he is still largely unknown (btw, could you post this poll that gives name recognition scores?)

It's from the frequent OGM polls they do on national politicians:

The last one from January had Hofer at 19% favorable, 20% unfavorable.

http://www.ogm.at/inhalt/2016/01/regierung-vertrauensindex/APA-OGM-Vertrauensindex_BundespolitikerInnenJ%C3%A4nner-2016.pdf

The December one was 16-19.

And in November it was 14-19.

[DavidB.]

Your analysis is absolutely great, aross. I hope you stick around here!

[Cranberry]

So basically, at least at present, large amounts of conservatives (and almost all NEOS supporters, though a few might go for Griss) are planning to vote for VdB. (Anecdotally, this matches up - even a rather posh friend who wants to privatise hospitals and schools(!) says she will vote for him, although support for him will of course be higher here in Vienna.)

That has been my experience as well. Van der Bellen just has his own individual appeal for voters in the Bildungsbürger-spectrum ("educated bourgeoisie" seems not quite a right translation for that, and I can't think of any other, I'm afraid), which is not entirely a surprise given his background and public image. This seems to be not just a Vienna-phenomenon however, aross, even here in rural Tirol I've heard people say they would vote for VdB that I would have never imagined - this even with Khol as a Tyrolean as ÖVP-candidate.

[DavidB.]

My liberal, bobo family members in Vienna's 6th district will vote for VdB; my uncle and aunt who left Vienna for Burgenland will probably vote for Hofer. Very typical.

[aross]

Your analysis is absolutely great, aross. I hope you stick around here!

Thanks, I'm flattered!

So basically, at least at present, large amounts of conservatives (and almost all NEOS supporters, though a few might go for Griss) are planning to vote for VdB. (Anecdotally, this matches up - even a rather posh friend who wants to privatise hospitals and schools(!) says she will vote for him, although support for him will of course be higher here in Vienna.)

That has been my experience as well. Van der Bellen just has his own individual appeal for voters in the Bildungsbürger-spectrum ("educated bourgeoisie" seems not quite a right translation for that, and I can't think of any other, I'm afraid), which is not entirely a surprise given his background and public image. This seems to be not just a Vienna-phenomenon however, aross, even here in rural Tirol I've heard people say they would vote for VdB that I would have never imagined - this even with Khol as a Tyrolean as ÖVP-candidate.

Intellectual bourgeoisie, perhaps? Of course, most Viennese would insist such a thing does not exist in Tyrol
Doesn't Van der Bellen have some sort of connection with Tyrol? Is that noticeable?
EDIT: Yes, not only did he study there as I thought, but he in fact grew up in rural Tyrol.

[Cranberry]

Your analysis is absolutely great, aross. I hope you stick around here!

Thanks, I'm flattered!

So basically, at least at present, large amounts of conservatives (and almost all NEOS supporters, though a few might go for Griss) are planning to vote for VdB. (Anecdotally, this matches up - even a rather posh friend who wants to privatise hospitals and schools(!) says she will vote for him, although support for him will of course be higher here in Vienna.)

That has been my experience as well. Van der Bellen just has his own individual appeal for voters in the Bildungsbürger-spectrum ("educated bourgeoisie" seems not quite a right translation for that, and I can't think of any other, I'm afraid), which is not entirely a surprise given his background and public image. This seems to be not just a Vienna-phenomenon however, aross, even here in rural Tirol I've heard people say they would vote for VdB that I would have never imagined - this even with Khol as a Tyrolean as ÖVP-candidate.

Intellectual bourgeoisie, perhaps? Of course, most Viennese would insist such a thing does not exist in Tyrol
Doesn't Van der Bellen have some sort of connection with Tyrol? Is that noticeable?
EDIT: Yes, not only did he study there as I thought, but he in fact grew up in rural Tyrol.

I've got more of a problem with "bourgeoisie", as that entails that sort of wealthy big fat-cat capitalist image which the sort of people I wanted to describe not necessarily have.
Haha - I admit it's sometimes hard to find, but then again, if you look at certain areas of Vienna, even the most hick-ish place in the upper Paznaun or wherever seems like an intellectual paradise compared to that

Yes, VdB, as every Tyrolean Green will be more than eager to tell you, grew up here (in fact just half an hour from my home!); though he by now is perceived completely as a Viennese (which is however anyone that does not talk in our sacred tongue and whose ks do not leave his/her throats completely sore, so not unique to him ), which if anything has always a negative effect on popularity. I would guess his wider-than-usual popularity is a pretty even phenomenon everywhere, however, not really confined to Tirol as his youth home. We can however maybe expect an expenonential growth in Green support in municipalities like Faggen, Fendels or Kaunerberg, having him score three instead of the usual one percent there

[aross]

Your analysis is absolutely great, aross. I hope you stick around here!

Thanks, I'm flattered!

So basically, at least at present, large amounts of conservatives (and almost all NEOS supporters, though a few might go for Griss) are planning to vote for VdB. (Anecdotally, this matches up - even a rather posh friend who wants to privatise hospitals and schools(!) says she will vote for him, although support for him will of course be higher here in Vienna.)

That has been my experience as well. Van der Bellen just has his own individual appeal for voters in the Bildungsbürger-spectrum ("educated bourgeoisie" seems not quite a right translation for that, and I can't think of any other, I'm afraid), which is not entirely a surprise given his background and public image. This seems to be not just a Vienna-phenomenon however, aross, even here in rural Tirol I've heard people say they would vote for VdB that I would have never imagined - this even with Khol as a Tyrolean as ÖVP-candidate.

Intellectual bourgeoisie, perhaps? Of course, most Viennese would insist such a thing does not exist in Tyrol
Doesn't Van der Bellen have some sort of connection with Tyrol? Is that noticeable?
EDIT: Yes, not only did he study there as I thought, but he in fact grew up in rural Tyrol.

I've got more of a problem with "bourgeoisie", as that entails that sort of wealthy big fat-cat capitalist image which the sort of people I wanted to describe not necessarily have.
Haha - I admit it's sometimes hard to find, but then again, if you look at certain areas of Vienna, even the most hick-ish place in the upper Paznaun or wherever seems like an intellectual paradise compared to that

Yes, VdB, as every Tyrolean Green will be more than eager to tell you, grew up here (in fact just half an hour from my home!); though he by now is perceived completely as a Viennese (which is however anyone that does not talk in our sacred tongue and whose ks do not leave his/her throats completely sore, so not unique to him ), which if anything has always a negative effect on popularity. I would guess his wider-than-usual popularity is a pretty even phenomenon everywhere, however, not really confined to Tirol as his youth home. We can however maybe expect an expenonential growth in Green support in municipalities like Faggen, Fendels or Kaunerberg, having him score three instead of the usual one percent there

I definitely can't talk, I recently read that my district of Vienna has the second highest percentage of people in the city (4th in the country, IIRC) with no education beyond compulsory.

I had a feeling that might be the case, he is, after all, about as metropolitan as it gets. (in Austria, at least )

Speaking of elections in rural Tyrol, I found this rather funny result in one of the smallest municipalities of Austria a while back: https://wahlen.tirol.gv.at/gemeinderatswahl_2010/gemeinden/hinterhornbach.html
Only one vote separates the ÖVP Hinterhornbach and the ÖVP "Together for Hinterhornbach"! Truly a close and fascinating race. Don't let anyone tell you all politicians are the same!

[Cranberry]

Your analysis is absolutely great, aross. I hope you stick around here!

Thanks, I'm flattered!

So basically, at least at present, large amounts of conservatives (and almost all NEOS supporters, though a few might go for Griss) are planning to vote for VdB. (Anecdotally, this matches up - even a rather posh friend who wants to privatise hospitals and schools(!) says she will vote for him, although support for him will of course be higher here in Vienna.)

That has been my experience as well. Van der Bellen just has his own individual appeal for voters in the Bildungsbürger-spectrum ("educated bourgeoisie" seems not quite a right translation for that, and I can't think of any other, I'm afraid), which is not entirely a surprise given his background and public image. This seems to be not just a Vienna-phenomenon however, aross, even here in rural Tirol I've heard people say they would vote for VdB that I would have never imagined - this even with Khol as a Tyrolean as ÖVP-candidate.

Intellectual bourgeoisie, perhaps? Of course, most Viennese would insist such a thing does not exist in Tyrol
Doesn't Van der Bellen have some sort of connection with Tyrol? Is that noticeable?
EDIT: Yes, not only did he study there as I thought, but he in fact grew up in rural Tyrol.

I've got more of a problem with "bourgeoisie", as that entails that sort of wealthy big fat-cat capitalist image which the sort of people I wanted to describe not necessarily have.
Haha - I admit it's sometimes hard to find, but then again, if you look at certain areas of Vienna, even the most hick-ish place in the upper Paznaun or wherever seems like an intellectual paradise compared to that

Yes, VdB, as every Tyrolean Green will be more than eager to tell you, grew up here (in fact just half an hour from my home!); though he by now is perceived completely as a Viennese (which is however anyone that does not talk in our sacred tongue and whose ks do not leave his/her throats completely sore, so not unique to him ), which if anything has always a negative effect on popularity. I would guess his wider-than-usual popularity is a pretty even phenomenon everywhere, however, not really confined to Tirol as his youth home. We can however maybe expect an expenonential growth in Green support in municipalities like Faggen, Fendels or Kaunerberg, having him score three instead of the usual one percent there

I definitely can't talk, I recently read that my district of Vienna has the second highest percentage of people in the city (4th in the country, IIRC) with no education beyond compulsory.

I had a feeling that might be the case, he is, after all, about as metropolitan as it gets. (in Austria, at least )

Speaking of elections in rural Tyrol, I found this rather funny result in one of the smallest municipalities of Austria a while back: https://wahlen.tirol.gv.at/gemeinderatswahl_2010/gemeinden/hinterhornbach.html
Only one vote separates the ÖVP Hinterhornbach and the ÖVP "Together for Hinterhornbach"! Truly a close and fascinating race. Don't let anyone tell you all politicians are the same!

Is it the tenth or the eleventh?

In regards to that Hinterhornbach result, I am actually quite amazed that the two candidates didn't share a last name
It's places like this that get as hick as possible as you can in Austria - the uppermost part of a side valley (Hornbachtal) of a side valley (Lechtal) of a remote part (Außerfern) of the most rural, hick state (Tirol) - kinda like the deepest Wyoming of Austria