Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

i don't think many last-minute things can really influence a race which has run for over a year.

everyone's mind is settled, so it's all about turnout.

The Upper Austrian FPÖ trade union found a way to make it into the headlines in the final week, with a controversial idea:

FPÖ Union: No Christmas bonus money for Muslim workers and retirees

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http://www.thelocal.at/20161128/trade-union-no-christmas-bonus-money-for-muslim-oaps

In Austria, wages are paid 14x a year - with the double June wage referred to as "holiday pay" and the double November pay as "Christmas pay". Stuff like this could play well with the FPÖ's base.

[Tender Branson]

Preliminary weather forecast for Sunday:

Quite a cold winter day with temps of -5°C in the morning to around +5°C during the day.

But very sunny.

A national election has never happened during winter so far, so if Sunday is cold but sunny it might be really good for turnout ...

[Tender Branson]

Today, I checked if the post correctly delivered my absentee ballot to the district election commission.

I was notified that it arrived last week and was registered and stored for counting.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting:

In the May runoff, more than 37.000 postal ballots were not even opened and counted because the signature from the voter was missing.

That was a higher number than the difference between VdB and Hofer in the election (31.000).

How can people be so stupid not to sign their postal ballot and to state that they filled it out on their own, when there's a big fat box which says: "Do not forget to sign it, before you send it in."

[Tender Branson]

Ex-President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) and independent Irmgard Griss (who came in a strong 3rd in the first round) both endorsed VdB (again) today in a press conference:



The FPÖ mocked them as "Groupies for VdB".

http://derstandard.at/2000048507037/Ex-Praesident-Fischer-und-Ex-Kandidatin-Griss-werben-fuer-Van

[ApatheticAustrian]

griss' endorsement was important in the first (second round) election.....don't know if her voters still are some kind of "bloc".

[Tender Branson]

griss' endorsement was important in the first (second round) election.....don't know if her voters still are some kind of "bloc".

I actually voted for Griss in the first round and then for VdB twice.

I think many of her voters liked to hear from her what she thinks about the runoff(s) and it's not a surprise that many of her voters ended up voting for VdB. I guess it was something like 80% of her voters who went over to VdB.

[Tender Branson]

Linz, Austria's 3rd biggest city, also reports a significant drop in absentee ballot requests so far.

Only 16.000 were requested so far compared with 22.700 in May.

This follows similar trends in Graz and Wels.

It seems people are more reluctant now to vote with postal ballots after "glue gate" or it could be a sign of lower turnout.

[rob in cal]

  Tender if this trend holds throughout Austria of less postal ballots I wonder if its from both glue gate, as well as annulment of the last runoff in which, IIRC, there were questions about proper handling of postal ballots.  So maybe a lot of potential postal voters now are more concerned about the whole postal process.

[ApatheticAustrian]

postal voters usually voted for the green and the conservative party.......and the voters of those parties are usually known to vote at a higher rate than those of the social democrats and the freedom party.

could mean anything but i got a bad feeling about a december election anyway.

[Tender Branson]

  Tender if this trend holds throughout Austria of less postal ballots I wonder if its from both glue gate, as well as annulment of the last runoff in which, IIRC, there were questions about proper handling of postal ballots.  So maybe a lot of potential postal voters now are more concerned about the whole postal process.

Obviously. This is also the feedback I got from people I talked to. Some who voted absentee before are now definitely going back to precinct voting. But turnout in general could be down a lot because of the repeat vote, the delay and the postal ballot problems in the last months.

[Tender Branson]

Today is the final (and most important) TV debate on the ORF because it will have the biggest audience.

You can watch it here at 8:15pm ...

http://tvthek.orf.at/live/Wahl-16-Das-Duell/13892809

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think the SPÖ and ÖVP voters are going to decide this again.....the factions of the ÖVP are far more partisan this time and no one knows how motivated SPÖ voters are.

in fact...some urban SPÖ voters seem to have become greenish.

[Tender Branson]

postal voters usually voted for the green and the conservative party.......and the voters of those parties are usually known to vote at a higher rate than those of the social democrats and the freedom party.

could mean anything but i got a bad feeling about a december election anyway.

I can only think of one December election so far: Hohenems mayor last year.

Like the Presidential election, it had to be repeated. Like in the Presidential election the original race was virtually a tie, with the ÖVP-mayor beating the FPÖ candidate by a hair.

In the repeat vote, the FPÖ-candidate defeated the ÖVP mayor by a 56-44 margin ...

Still, this doesn't really mean much for Sunday.

[Tender Branson]

Just hours before the final and most important debate, it became known that there was a horrible mass-killing in Lower Austria:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3990856/House-horror-bloodbath-Woman-shoots-dead-mother-brother-three-children-aged-seven-ten-killing-Austria.html

A 35-year old woman shot and killed her mother, her brother and her 3 young children between the ages of 7 and 10 and the family dog - before killing herself.



It will likely lead to some questions about gun control, even though gun laws are quite strict here. But Norbert Hofer is a legal gun owner himself and he also has a carrying permit. But considering the scope of this (rare) killing, the moderator might also skip the gun question.

[ApatheticAustrian]

just want to point out once again for the non-austrian readers here that freedom party chief strache wanted to nominate a nut-job-lady instead of mister hofer .....who recently stated once again that mister van der bellen's parents were nazi collaborateurs.

[Tender Branson]

Damn, what a nasty/aggressive debate (mostly coming from Hofer).

VdB has a lot to do to deflect all the punches from Hofer.

Hofer: "You are a Communist spy."

Hofer: "You are a constant liar."

Hofer: "You want to abolish Austria's army."

Hofer: "You want to abolish Austria and put it under the tutelage of the EU. If under your plan, Austria would only be a federal state of the EU anymore, why are you running for President of this country then ?"

And so on ...

[Tender Branson]

Hofer is a bit too aggressive in the debate today.

I'm sticking with my prediction that VdB will win the election 52-48.

[Tender Branson]

708.185 postal ballots were requested for the Sunday election.

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/bundespraes/bpw_2016/Wahlkarten_2WG_WH.aspx

That's down significantly from the 885.437 in the original May runoff (-20%), but up from the 641.975 requested for the 1st round of voting in April (+10%).

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/bundespraes/bpw_2016/Wahlkarten_2WG.aspx

[Tender Branson]

Postal ballot request changes by state (May runoff vs. December runoff):

Burgenland: -18.3%
Carinthia: -5.8%
Lower Austria: -23.7%
Upper Austria: -19.4%
Salzburg: -22.7%
Styria: -19.2%
Tyrol: -19.0%
Vorarlberg: -11.9%
Vienna: -22.5%

Austria: -20.0%

States won by Hofer: -19.8%
States won by VdB: -20.2%

Don't see much of a pattern here ...

[Tender Branson]

According to my calculations, about 600.000 postal ballots will be returned (85% return rate).

About 580.000 will be valid for Hofer or VdB.

[Tender Branson]

If VdB wins the postal vote by the same margin as in May (62-38), then the postal vote will split 360.000 for VdB to 220.000 for Hofer (+140.000).

Hofer will need to win the election day vote by about 51.8 to 48.2 (or more) to win the election.

Obviously, the postal vote could also be much more pro-Hofer this time ...

Pretty hard to read much into these numbers ...

[Tender Branson]

CNN will have live coverage of the Austrian Pres. election and the Italian referendum on Sunday and Monday with their show hosted from Vienna ...

[Lachi]

Damn, what a nasty/aggressive debate (mostly coming from Hofer).

VdB has a lot to do to deflect all the punches from Hofer.

Hofer: "You are a Communist spy."

Hofer: "You are a constant liar."

Hofer: "You want to abolish Austria's army."

Hofer: "You want to abolish Austria and put it under the tutelage of the EU. If under your plan, Austria would only be a federal state of the EU anymore, why are you running for President of this country then ?"

And so on ...

All clichè right-wing attacks...

[ApatheticAustrian]

don't think the postal votes are going to be more pro-hofer.

but....maybe a bunch of postal voters is less inclined to vote this time....if upper austria and vienna holds for VdB he is going to be fine.