Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

I have just requested my postal ballot online.

Next Friday, the deadline for candidate signatures ends and we'll know who's on the ballot.

Then the ballots will be printed and sent to voters in early April.

[DavidB.]

I have just requested my postal ballot online.

Why are you not going to vote at a polling station?

[Tender Branson]

I have just requested my postal ballot online.

Why are you not going to vote at a polling station?

Because I virtually always vote by post.

[DavidB.]

I have just requested my postal ballot online.

Why are you not going to vote at a polling station?

Because I virtually always vote by post.

Hmm, okay. This doesn't exist in the Netherlands, only for people living abroad. I like voting to "feel" a bit special, so I always like going to the polling station and voting there. Also, how can you be sure it arrives?  I wouldn't feel sure about that.

[Tender Branson]

I have just requested my postal ballot online.

Why are you not going to vote at a polling station?

Because I virtually always vote by post.

Hmm, okay. This doesn't exist in the Netherlands, only for people living abroad. I like voting to "feel" a bit special, so I always like going to the polling station and voting there. Also, how can you be sure it arrives?  I wouldn't feel sure about that.

In general, the Austrian Post is not incompetent - so it will almost definitely arrive at the district election commission.

Also, considering Zell am See is also the place of the district election commission, I could also drop off the postal ballot there at some point myself - when I go shopping for example.

In effect, it doesn't really matter if you vote in person or by mail.

[Tender Branson]

The only thing that would make me go back to precinct voting is the fact that absentee ballots are not counted on the municipal level, just at the district level.

Which means (in the worst case), if for example 100% of people vote by mail - we are not getting any municipal results ... (except for the few cities that are districts themselves).

Of course, the election law could be amended so that the absentees are counted on the municipal level (like it is done in state elections) - so everything would be fine again ...

[Tender Branson]

Signature updates (deadline for the 6.000 is on Friday):

* Griss (Indy): has already collected 10.000+
* Hofer (FPÖ): has collected more than 6.000 already
* Khol (ÖVP): has more than 13.000 from the Lower Austria-ÖVP alone
* Hundstorfer (SPÖ): unknown
* Van der Bellen (Greens): unknown
* Awadalla (Indy, backed by KPÖ): more than 4.000 as of last week
* Lugner (Indy): around 3.500 as of last week
* Marschall (EU-Exit Party): unknown
* Luxemburg-Wellenstein (Indy): around 3.600 as of last week

[Tender Branson]

After the ÖVP, the FPÖ has now presented their first Presidential election poster for Hofer:



"Rise up for Austria: Your homeland needs you now."

"Norbert Hofer - President"

...

Apparently, "rise up" is a reference to Hofer's paragliding accident about 10 years ago after which he was almost paralyzed and since then needs a stick to walk. He "rose up" again and managed to get on with his life.

Kinda weird that there's no FPÖ logo on that poster. Hofer only has a 40% name recognition right now and the party is much more "popular" and well-known than Hofer himself.

[Tender Branson]

Elfriede Awadalla (Indy, backed by KPÖ) apparently has 5.300 signatures already and is just short by 700 signatures.

It looks like she could be on the ballot after all, with the deadline approaching on Friday at 5pm.

The federal election commission will then check if every candidate has collected at least 6.000 signatures and if they are valid.

Meanwhile, Van der Bellen (Greens) has announced he has more than 14.000 signatures.

We will know next Thursday who's on the ballot.

Candidates will be ranked alphabetically on the ballot, based on their last name - which means Awadalla would be first and Van der Bellen last.

http://derstandard.at/2000033027405/Praesidentenwahl-Bis-Dienstag-koennen-Unterschriften-nachgesammelt-werden

[Tender Branson]

Looks like both Awadalla and Lugner are falling short by a few hundred signatures and they won't appear on the Presidential ballot ...

[aross]

Looks like both Awadalla and Lugner are falling short by a few hundred signatures and they won't appear on the Presidential ballot ...

They get a two-day extension (weekdays, ie till Tuesday) if they are nearly there. So they should probably both be fine.

[aross]

Looks like both Awadalla and Lugner are falling short by a few hundred signatures and they won't appear on the Presidential ballot ...

They get a two-day extension (weekdays, ie till Tuesday) if they are nearly there. So they should probably both be fine.

OTOH, Awadalla has now conceded she won't make it even with the extension. Shame, I sent her my signature just yesterday. (partly out of sympathy, partly so I have someone to vote for in case VdB and Hundstorfer become even less appealing, though Awadalla obviously shares some of their flaws and adds some of her own.) Lugner says he will soldier on.

Now, this is a surprise, except in a way it isn't. Robert Marschall, eurosceptic activist (http://www.marschall2016.at/), has submitted his nomination. It isn't a surprise in the sense that Marschall has a bit of a history of defying low expectations - for example, when standing in the European election two years ago for his own "EU Exit Party" (sounds no less clumsy in German), he got 2.76%, clearly top of the also-rans, despite basically never been mentioned in the media. (The BZÖ, having by then completed its transformation into a directionless death cult, amusingly finished last.) Again, his non-presence in the media (I have quite literally never heard his name on TV or radio) has been surprising and not really on given his by now proven relevance.

Marschall is also a bit of a internet personality, operating numerous websites on various, but mostly political topics, all in that precise same vaguely dated design his campaign website uses. The simple domain names he operates under (http://www.nationalratswahl.at/, http://www.bundespraesidentschaftswahl.at/, http://www.wahltermin.at/ and http://www.wahlbeteiligung.at/ - the last two are "election date" and "turnout") means he ends up right at the top of Google searches for those words. Large parts of these sites are often in fact simply mirrors of other sites of his. He also has somewhat of a obession with: The EU (obviously), politicians who didn't do national service, the "unfair and illegal" Austrian electoral system (threshold issue), genetic engineering, Austrian neutrality, phone radiation, the equally "unfair and illegal" public broadcasting fees, etc. etc., any of which he will a rant on at the slightest notice. Oh, and bizarre political predictions - the EU will collapse within the year (for the last 5 years) is a given, "new elections will be called soon because the government knows it isn't supported by a majority of Austrians any more" perhaps less so.

[Tender Branson]

A few additional points to aross:

* Both Marschall and Lugner only submitted their official statements of candidacy on Friday. But not 6.000 or more signatures ! For this, they'll have time until Tuesday at midnight. The other 5 candidates all have submitted their signatures already and will be on the ballot.

* There will be 6.380.605 eligible voters for the Presidential election, which for the first time means a declining number of eligible voters. Compared with the 2013 federal election, the number of eligible voters is down by about 3.700 people. This can be explained with the fact that the number of Austrian citizens is going down for several years now already. Austria's population only grows because of foreigners anymore ...

* A new federal elections poll is out from Unique Research for Profil magazine:

32% FPÖ
24% ÖVP
22% SPÖ
14% Greens
  6% NEOS

[Tender Branson]

Not just Donald Trump gets his protesters, but also Presidential candidate Norbert Hofer (FPÖ):

In the second-largest city Graz, 3 unknown men blemished hundreds of huge campaign posters from the FPÖ's candidate (I posted them above).

Or as the police wrote in their report: "Three unknown men blemished the campaign posters with a characteristic beard of an already-dead dictator, using black paint."

http://derstandard.at/2000033178188/Plakate-von-FPOe-Kandidat-Hofer-mit-Hitler-Bart-beschmiert

[Tender Branson]

The 1st round of the Presidential election will be very interesting because all 5 major candidates will get around 20% (assuming Lugner and Marschall are not making the ballot).

This would be good for comparisons about how well/bad candidates do in certain areas of the country, using maps.

* Van der Bellen (Greens) for example should have his strongholds in the big cities and suburbs and will do badly in the rural areas.

* Hofer (FPÖ) should do well in Styria and Upper Austria.

* Griss (Indy), as the centrist/non-radical option for protest voters, should do well in the West, Vienna and Styria and the suburbs.

* Hundstorfer (SPÖ) will do well in working-class areas of Vienna and other bigger cities, but that's about it for him and he'll get destroyed in the rural areas.

* Khol (ÖVP) should do well in rural, arch-conservative areas in Tyrol, Upper- and Lower Austria and South-Eastern Styria, but will get destroyed in rural/suburban areas.

[Tender Branson]

derstandard.at is out with a new "Market" poll for President, but unfortunately their writeup of the poll sucks. They only provide "raw data" with leaners among those who are still undecided.

Of those polled, 70% indicate a candidate preference and 30% are still undecided.

Of the decided, VdB/Griss/Hofer all get 17%, Hundstorfer 8%, Khol 6% and Lugner 5%.

The 30% undecided were then asked which candidate they are leaning towards and VdB got 14% of them, 10% Hundstorfer, 5% each for Griss and Lugner, 4% for Khol and 2% for Hofer.

According to my calculation that means the number of decided voters rises to 82% and 18% remain undecided.

The topline result would then be (using the 82% decided as 100%):

25.9% Van der Bellen
22.6% Griss
21.5% Hofer
13.4% Hundstorfer
  8.8% Khol
  7.9% Lugner

http://derstandard.at/2000033280555/Griss-gilt-am-ehesten-als-Bundespraesidentin-fuer-alle

Voters also see Griss as the "most presidential candidate":

47-27       presidential - Griss
40-43 not presidential - VdB
36-41 not presidential - Hundstorfer
31-43 not presidential - Khol
26-49 not presidential - Hofer
14-66 not presidential - Lugner

[Tender Branson]

Van der Bellen (Greens) releases 1st poster campaign:



"Elect Van der Bellen. Believe in AUSTRIA."



"Elect Van der Bellen. WE all together."



"Elect Van der Bellen. Our HOMELAND needs cohesion/solidarity/coherence."



"Elect Van der Bellen. BRAVE/COURAGEOUSLY into the new times."

[Tender Branson]

In other news, a lesbian couple from Upper Austria has challenged the Austrian civil union law in the highest state court today, arguing that the current law is discriminating against their daughter who grows up as an illegitimate child.



The judge was very sympathetic to their cause and a ruling is expected in some weeks. If the judge rules in favour, the state of Upper Austria would have to legalize full marriage for LGBTs.

It is the same couple who challenged the Austrian adoption law and which led to Austrian courts legalizing full adoption rights for LGBTs not long ago.

http://www.nachrichten.at/oberoesterreich/Lesbisches-Paar-will-Ehe-Verbot-fuer-Homosexuelle-kippen;art4,2182277

Excellent news ! I hope the judge has the balls to legalize it.

[Tender Branson]

So what exactly are the candidate positions on gay marriage ?

Van der Bellen (Greens) fully supports it
Griss (Indy) fully supports it
Hundstorfer (SPÖ) fully supports it

Khol (ÖVP): more or less supports it, saying "no LGBT person should be discriminated against"

Hofer (FPÖ) opposes marriage and adoption rights

[Tender Branson]

The deadline for presidential signatures has ended yesterday and the following persons will be on the ballot, the federal election commission announced today after checking all signatures:

(ranked by ballot order => alphabetically)

* Dr. Irmgard Griss (Indy)

* Ing. Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)

* Rudolf Hundstorfer (SPÖ)

* Dr. Andreas Khol (ÖVP)

* Ing. Richard Lugner (Indy)

* Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20160323_OTS0095/bundespraesidentenwahl-2016-sechs-kandidatinnen-haben-ausreichend-unterstuetzungserklaerungen-abgegeben

[Tender Branson]

The fact that Lugner (our version of Donald Trump, just not xenophobic) made it onto the ballot at the last possible moment is bad news for FPÖ Hofer's chances to reach the runoff.

Lugner, who refers to himself as a "punchinello", is an anti-establishment candidate and if he attracts even just 3-5%, it might be the voters that Hofer would need for the run-off. Lugner-voters are basically 90-95% potential FPÖ-voters ...



http://lugner.at/lugner_for_president.html

[Tender Branson]

Irmgard Griss (which I will vote for), recently visited the Austrian Muslim Youth to debate with them, the first (and only) candidate to do so:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtJranCRPds

Looked like a good debate and it seems the young Muslim voters really liked her.

[Tender Branson]

New OGM poll, conducted for the Griss campaign (n=1019, MoE = +/- 3.1%):

26% VdB (Greens)
22% Hofer (FPÖ)
20% Griss (Indy)
19% Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
10% Khol (ÖVP)
  3% Others (*candidate Lugner was not asked yet)

A total of 66% say that they will "definitely vote" in the presidential election.

Among this group of "very likely voters", the results are slightly different:

29% VdB (Greens)
21% Hofer (FPÖ)
19% Griss (Indy)
17% Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
11% Khol (ÖVP)
  3% Others (*candidate Lugner was not asked yet)

OGM also polled run-off matchups for Griss:

45-33 Griss vs. VdB
52-26 Griss vs. Hofer
48-30 Griss vs. Hundstorfer
52-20 Griss vs. Khol

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/4952632/Stichwahl-Van-der-Bellen-vs-Hofer

[sasun]

So looks like if Griss makes it to the runoff she will win...The real race than is between her and Höfer

[DavidB.]

So looks like if Griss makes it to the runoff she will win...The real race than is between her and Höfer

Yeah, exactly.