Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Cranberry]

Postal ballots seem to have been sent out in the last days, we got ours yesterday (and once they reach rural Tyrol they must be properly everywhere), and I can proudly report to have cast my ballot for Mr. Van der Bellen. Wouldn't exactly be a miracle if me and my mum's votes for him remain the only ones in my village - but postal ballots are reported only by district level, and Imst district is big enough for there to be a few more, I should wager

[Tender Branson]

Postal ballots seem to have been sent out in the last days, we got ours yesterday (and once they reach rural Tyrol they must be properly everywhere), and I can proudly report to have cast my ballot for Mr. Van der Bellen. Wouldn't exactly be a miracle if me and my mum's votes for him remain the only ones in my village - postal ballots are reported only by district level, and Imst district is big enough for there to be a few more, I should wager

I have not received my postal ballot yet ...

(Apparently, municipal workers in a city of 10.000 take a longer time to print and send them to voters than the workers in the small-town you live in).

Anyway, it's probably in the mail in the next few days.

[Tender Branson]

Also: I will definitely vote for Griss now.

She might have some flaws (no candidate's perfect of course), but Van der Bellen's democratic hostility (=> not swearing in a party even if it gets 50%+ of seats) is annoying. I would vote for him in a runoff against Hofer (FPÖ) though.

My mum will definitely vote for Hofer in both rounds, she said. My brothers are unlikely to vote, they said. My sister votes Hundstorfer. My co-workers and friends are all split: some are not voting, some are voting Hofer, basically nobody votes for Lugner. There might be a few shy Hundstorfer/Khol/Griss/Van der Bellen voters among them, but many don't seem interested in this election ...

[Tender Branson]

The new Gallup poll for Ö24 shows Hofer gaining (VdB and Griss also gained a point), while the government candidates and Lugner are losing ground.

Also interesting: Hofer is at almost 50% in a possible runoff with either VdB or Griss. This is something I have predicted before already.

52% VdB (Greens)
48% Hofer (FPÖ)

51% Griss (Indy)
49% VdB (Greens)

51% Griss (Indy)
49% Hofer (FPÖ)

...

Also:

"Would a FPÖ-President be good for Austria ?"

31% Yes
40% No
29% Undecided

"Would a Green President be good for Austria ?"

30% Yes
46% No
24% Undecided

(right-click for big version)



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Van-der-Bellen-nur-knapp-vor-Hofer/230748681

[Tender Branson]

New OGM poll for several state newspapers (n=1.013):



http://www.kleinezeitung.at/s/politik/bundespraesident/4962392/Umfrage_Van-der-Bellen-nur-noch-knapp-vor-Hofer

[Tender Branson]

New Unique Research poll for "Heute" newspaper:



The chart on the right is the important one, because it's the actual projection for election day.

In general, 800 people were polled - of which 71.5% indicated that they will "definitely vote" on election day.

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/Hofburg-Wahl-So-wuerden-Oesterreicher-derzeit-waehlen;art23660,1274715

http://www.heute.at/storage/med/pdf/87707_Ergebnisse_Heute_April16_Hochschaetzung.pdf

[reciprocity]

The new Gallup poll for Ö24 shows Hofer gaining (VdB and Griss also gained a point), while the government candidates and Lugner are losing ground.

Also interesting: Hofer is at almost 50% in a possible runoff with either VdB or Griss. This is something I have predicted before already.

52% VdB (Greens)
48% Hofer (FPÖ)

51% Griss (Indy)
49% VdB (Greens)

51% Griss (Indy)
49% Hofer (FPÖ)

...

Also:

"Would a FPÖ-President be good for Austria ?"

31% Yes
40% No
29% Undecided

"Would a Green President be good for Austria ?"

30% Yes
46% No
24% Undecided

The Green/FPO question is odd in comparison to the run off polling. I guess vdB is beyond his party.

[DavidB.]

Still fully expect Van der Bellen to do this during the campaign.

[Tender Branson]

Still fully expect Van der Bellen to do this during the campaign.

Yeah, his name literally means "Van der barking" ...

"Bellen" in German = barking

[Tender Branson]

Details from the new OGM poll:



"Do you think the office of President is important/indispensable or unimportant/dispensable ?"

50% important/indispensable
40% unimportant/dispensable

"How would you currently rate your intention to vote on election day ?"

68% will definitely vote
18% will likely vote
  9% unlikely to vote
  4% will definitely not vote

"How would you retrospectively rate the job of the outgoing President Heinz Fischer ?"

45% Excellent/Good
27% Neutral/In between
25% Poor

"What is your 2nd choice for President ?"

21% Griss
12% VdB
11% Hofer
11% Hundstorfer
  8% Khol
  4% Lugner
26% I have no 2nd choice

"Assuming your candidate does not get into the runoff - which of these statements apply ?"

43% I'd vote in the runoff and decide fully independently on one of the candidates
31% I'd vote in the runoff and cast my ballot for my 2nd choice
  9% I'd vote in the runoff and vote for a different candidate, to "hurt" the 2nd candidate
11% I'd probably not vote in the runoff

[DavidB.]

Still fully expect Van der Bellen to do this during the campaign.

Yeah, his name literally means "Van der barking" ...

"Bellen" in German = barking

That was the joke, yes.

[Tender Branson]

Still fully expect Van der Bellen to do this during the campaign.

Yeah, his name literally means "Van der barking" ...

"Bellen" in German = barking

That was the joke, yes.

Of course. I just explained it for posters who don't know any German.

[Tender Branson]

Also interesting:

2nd choices for voters of each candidate (from the OGM poll)

[Tender Branson]

New ATV/Austria Trend poll:



http://derstandard.at/2000034490179/70-Prozent-wollen-sicher-zur-Hofburg-Wahl-gehen

...

Best Hofer-numbers so far.

Compared with the previous ATV Trend poll:

VdB: -2%
Hofer: +6%
Griss: +2%
Hundstorfer: -1%
Khol: -5%
Lugner: +1%

[Tender Branson]

4 new federal election polls:

OGM

31% FPÖ
23% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
14% Greens
  6% NEOS
  1% TS
  2% Others

Unique Research

32% FPÖ
23% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
14% Greens
  7% NEOS
  0% TS
  1% Others

Gallup

33% FPÖ
24% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
12% Greens
  5% NEOS
  0% TS
  3% Others

Hajek/ATV

32% FPÖ
22% ÖVP
22% SPÖ
15% Greens
  7% NEOS
  0% TS
  2% Others

[Tender Branson]

Interior Minister Johanna Mikl-Leitner (ÖVP) will become the new Governor of Upper Austria (probably in December when Gov. Erwin Pröll retires around his 70th birthday).

Pröll has been Governor of Lower Austria for 24 years now and usually got absolute majorities there for the ÖVP.

The new Austrian Interior Minister will be Wolfgang Sobotka (also ÖVP and currently finance minister of Lower Austria).

http://derstandard.at/2000034526876/Mikl-Leitner-vor-Wechsel-nach-Niederoesterreich-Sobotka-nach-Wien

[Tender Branson]

At a campaign speech in Lower Austria, Hofer (FPÖ) calls Van der Bellen (Greens) a "fascist Green dictator, which we do not need".

The VdB camp responds by saying that "extreme talk like this is not appropriate for the office of President" and that Hofer needs to tone down.

http://derstandard.at/2000034531197/Van-der-Bellens-Team-ruft-nach-Hofer-Sager-zu-Maessigung

Obviously, this is because VdB repeatedly ruled out swearing in a FPÖ-government as President (even if the FPÖ gets 50%+ of the seats in the next federal election).

But VdB has the voters strongly against him on that issue:

A new ATV Trend poll today shows that only 23% of voters support the idea that a President should not swear in a government with a majority of seats out of a personal grudge against that government. 67% are opposed and want the President to swear in a government with a parliamentary majority, no matter what the President's feelings are about it.

[Cranberry]

Hmm ... maybe something like this ?

This is assuming a rather close race, with VdB beating Hofer by about 54-46 or something.

Turnout could be higher than in Round 1, maybe between 70-75%.

Let's see if Cranberry agrees or not ...

Responding to that in here, where it makes more sense.

I have to admit, Tender, your map does not make too much sense to me. It seems you just added up places of strong SPÖ support to VdB and places that usually vote ÖVP to Hofer; but that is just not at all what is going to happen in the case of such a run-off. Why on earth should a place like Mürzzuschlag vote for a former uni professor clearly over a guy from a party that styles itsself as the new worker's party (and clearly has strong reasonance in many of the places you have coloured in green here - nearly all of the Obersteiermark, for example, or a large part of the Salzkammergut)? Van der Bellen's strengths will imo lie in the big cities - Vienna, Graz, Innsbruck, Salzburg, Bregenz; less so Linz and Klagenfurt - and the suburbs, so all of the XY-Land or XY-Umgebung districts, as well as southeastern NÖ / northern Burgenland. Hofer on the other hand will do good in the old industrial areas - Obersteiermark, southern OÖ/NÖ, Carinthia - and in the peripheral areas.

Also, why should Bezirk Gmünd vote for VdB?

[Tender Branson]

Obviously, this was an estimate of how it *might* end up. And yeah, I decided to give VdB the SPÖ-leaning areas of Upper Styria and the Salzkammergut - mostly because I don't believe that a large share of SPÖ-voters will end up voting for Hofer (as we have seen in Vienna last year), but more likely for VdB. Which also includes Gmünd.

As you said, VdB will do well in the cities and suburbs and Greater-Vienna. Maybe he wins even more districts in Tyrol, such as Kitzbühel. Hofer will do relatively well in the rural parts.

[Tender Branson]

No OSCE election observers to Austria to monitor the election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/austria/228466

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Often contests between 'atypical' choices end up looking strangely uniform, outside certain well established strongholds.

[Tender Branson]

When driving home from work today, I saw a guy in the car in front of me opening the window and as the car drives by along some posters from Norbert Hofer (FPÖ), the guy put his arm outside and made a Nazi salute ! 3 times, at 3 posters that were along the road !

[Tender Branson]

Presidential poll for the state of Vorarlberg for the VN newspaper:

(the left chart is the important one)



Surprisingly weak result for Van der Bellen in Vorarlberg. I guess he would need around 30-35% in that state to be around 25-30% Austria-wide. But 18% seems really low ...

The other results are pretty much in line with what you'd expect from Vorarlberg. Hundstorfer's numbers are also not bad for that state.

[palandio]

When driving home from work today, I saw a guy in the car in front of me opening the window and as the car drives by along some posters from Norbert Hofer (FPÖ), the guy put his arm outside and made a Nazi salute ! 3 times, at 3 posters that were along the road !

I'm sure you were driving westwards, the sun was already standing quite low and if he wouldn't have protected his eyes with his hand, the sun would have dazzled him while he was looking at the Hofer poster. Or he was ordering five beers.

[Omega21]

When driving home from work today, I saw a guy in the car in front of me opening the window and as the car drives by along some posters from Norbert Hofer (FPÖ), the guy put his arm outside and made a Nazi salute ! 3 times, at 3 posters that were along the road !

Doesn't Austria have Nazism under control? I thought only a very small part of the population have such sentiment..