Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

When driving home from work today, I saw a guy in the car in front of me opening the window and as the car drives by along some posters from Norbert Hofer (FPÖ), the guy put his arm outside and made a Nazi salute ! 3 times, at 3 posters that were along the road !

Doesn't Austria have Nazism under control? I thought only a very small part of the population have such sentiment..

Yeah, but maybe he was among this "small part of the population" ... or like palandio said he was just ordering 5 beer ...

[Tender Branson]

Anyway, I finally got my postal ballot today.

Can't wait to vote ... for Irmgard Griss.

[Tender Branson]

Presidential candidate Khol (ÖVP) created some controversy yesterday in an interview with ATV, by defending the former controversial President Kurt Waldheim (also ÖVP) as a "man of honour" and "proud Christian-Democrat".

Khol also said that "Austria was a victim of National-Socialism, but there were also many Austrians who were offenders."

http://derstandard.at/2000034653467/Khol-sieht-Oesterreich-als-Opfer-des-Nationalsozialismus

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) debated Rudolf Hundstorfer (SPÖ) yesterday on PULS 4.

Pollster OGM again did a live-poll during the debate, using a representative online sample of Austrian voters.

Even though voters thought Hundstorfer was connecting more with the average voter and would better represent Austria abroad as President, voters still picked Hofer as the overall winner of the debate:



http://www.ogm.at/2016/04/puls-4-eignungstest-hofer-vs-hundstorfer

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll (conducted in the last 3 days) shows Hofer and Hundstorfer gaining:



Among the 2/3 of voters who have already completely decided on a candidate, Hofer actually leads:

25% Hofer
24% VdB
20% Griss
19% Hundstorfer
  8% Khol
  4% Lugner

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20160413_OTS0242/oesterreich-umfrage-van-der-bellen-knapp-vorn-hofer-aber-schon-am-sprung-auf-platz-1

[Tender Branson]

The final number of eligible voters was released today:

6.382.484

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/bundespraes/bpw_2016/Wahlberechtigte.aspx

Assuming turnout is somewhere between 65-75%, around 4.2-4.8 million votes will be cast.

[Tender Branson]

Anyway, I finally got my postal ballot today.

Can't wait to vote ... for Irmgard Griss.

Done:

[Omega21]

The final number of eligible voters was released today:

6.382.484

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/bundespraes/bpw_2016/Wahlberechtigte.aspx

Assuming turnout is somewhere between 65-75%, around 4.2-4.8 million votes will be cast.

Could you please give us a rundown of the 5-candidate debate on ORF, who was at their best in it?

I didnt understand some dialogue so yeah...

[Cranberry]

Watched just parts of it, but from what I saw, Khol and Hofer both didn't really impress much. Hofer came across as incredibly patronising and unlikeable, especially against Hundstorfer ("every time you speak, I gain voters"), really to an extent that the word Arschloch perfectly described his demeanour; and Khol in my eyes seemed a bit unorganised and not superbly prepared. Hundstorfer on the other hand seemed quite in a pissy mood and generally distant. Griss wasn't bad in my eyes, except for her typical perception problem which is being seen as some bland, generic, grey wallflower; but that's nothing new, and she did no bad job in my eyes. Van der Bellen was the same in that he delivered exactly what you would expect of him - his typical slow, considerate, eloquent way of speaking interrupted by the occasional smoking-caused coughing, which to some (including yours truly) seems sympathetic and considerate, while to others might seem arrogant and add to his professorial image.

[Tender Branson]

Could you please give us a rundown of the 5-candidate debate on ORF, who was at their best in it?

I didnt understand some dialogue so yeah...

First, it wasn't a "5 candidate debate" - there were 10 duels involving the 5 major candidates. Basically a "speed dating" debate format, created by the ORF.

Every duel was for 15 minutes, the whole thing lasted for almost 3 hours.

Second, I didn't watch it but 2 political experts (Thomas Hofer and Peter Hajek) did an analysis of each duel and awarded points to each candidate, using 5 criteria, with a max. of 10 points for each candidate in each duel:

http://epaper.heute.at/#/documents/160415_HEU/4

According to their analysis, Van der Bellen got the most points with 27, followed by Hofer with 25, Khol 18, Griss 17 and Hundstorfer 12.

Their ratings for each duel:

VdB vs. Griss (9:5)
Hofer vs. Khol (7:4)
Hundstorfer vs. Griss (5:4)
VdB vs. Khol (7:5)
Hofer vs. Hundstorfer (6:4)
Khol vs. Griss (4:4)
VdB vs. Hundstorfer (4:0)
Griss vs. Hofer (4:4)
Hofer vs. VdB (8:7)
Khol vs. Hundstorfer (5:3)

...

The actual ORF "elephant debate" with all 6 candidates will take place next Thursday.

[Tender Branson]

Absentee ballot requests in Vienna are about the same so far when compared with the high-turnout 2015 state election there.

Last year, 205.000 absentee ballots were requested for the state election - with 80.000 online requests.

Final turnout was 75% (which was pretty high for Vienna).

So far, with 1 week to go, there were 75.000 online requests.

[Tender Branson]

Pollster OGM has new numbers out on the favourable ratings of the Presidential candidates:

39-27 Griss (Indy)
48-37 Van der Bellen (Greens)
49-39 Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
34-31 Hofer (FPÖ)

34-46 Khol (ÖVP)
18-63 Lugner (Indy)

http://www.ogm.at/inhalt/2016/04/vertrauensindex/APA-OGM-Vertrauensindex_Bundespr%C3%A4sidentschaftskandidatInnen-April-2016.pdf

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ - the new defender of Israel ?

Yesterday, Palestinian terrorist (or freedom fighter ?) and plane hijacker from the 1970s - Leila Khaled - held a speech in Vienna and the place was sold out, with people even standing outside to listen. Her speech was described as being "really antisemitic".



Enter Strache (FPÖ-leader), who is "deeply outraged" that a terrorist like her is able to speak in Vienna at a forum organized by an Arab grouping. Strache further said that it's "not tolerable that she can propagandise her hate and anti-semitism against Israel, while SPÖ/ÖVP and Greens are just watching on the sidelines".

Recently, Strache was in Israel with an FPÖ-delegation at the invitation of the Likud Party, to strenghten the ties with the Israeli government party in case the FPÖ comes to power after the 2018 elections (actually, David Lasar, a Jewish MP for the FPÖ in Vienna was initiating the Israel-trip because of his good contacts with Likud).



Strache, who was protected by bodyguards of the Israeli secret service, also visited the Yad Vashem holocaust memorial and said he wants to "cleanse the FPÖ from any anti-semitism".



http://kurier.at/politik/inland/fpoe-chef-heinz-christian-strache-echauffiert-sich-ueber-auftritt-von-leila-khaled-in-wien/193.285.940

[Hnv1]

As far as I know the official stand regarding the FPÖ is of boycott (Israel recalled its ambassador between 2000-03), though in recent years far-right groups here had been making contacts with far right parties and individuals in the US\EU with the "common foe" of Islam. So far it has been rather controversial especially with FN, Afd and such (blames of Jew-washing and such).
  
I don't know what Khaled said, and personally in my experience the foreign Palestinians and sometimes the foreign Israelis\Jews are being more radical and violent (and certainly more hawkish than locals here). But if it were true I'd be rather disappointed by the SPÖ considering the strong past mutual past links and the once strong Jewish vote(my great-grandfather was a member in the days of Austro-Hungaria before he lost his citizenship).

Back to Strache, as I've seen anti-Semitic Jewish bankers caricatures on his facebook page I'd say those who dwell in glass houses...  

[Tender Branson]

As far as I know the official stand regarding the FPÖ is of boycott (Israel recalled its ambassador between 2000-03), though in recent years far-right groups here had been making contacts with far right parties and individuals in the US\EU with the "common foe" of Islam. So far it has been rather controversial especially with FN, Afd and such (blames of Jew-washing and such).
  
I don't know what Khaled said, and personally in my experience the foreign Palestinians and sometimes the foreign Israelis\Jews are being more radical and violent (and certainly more hawkish than locals here). But if it were true I'd be rather disappointed by the SPÖ considering the strong past mutual past links and the once strong Jewish vote(my great-grandfather was a member in the days of Austro-Hungaria before he lost his citizenship).

Back to Strache, as I've seen anti-Semitic Jewish bankers caricatures on his facebook page I'd say those who dwell in glass houses...  

True, but it seems this boycott is getting "weaker" recently, no ? Especially with the right-wing coalition in Israel now. Why else would Likud politicians want to meet FPÖ politicians then ?

I also don't know really what Khaled said in the Arab Forum, but media reports suggested she tiraded against Israel etc.

As for the SPÖ: While Strache says that SPÖ/ÖVP and Greens are just sitting on the sidelines and letting her rant against Israel, the Austrian Verfassungsschutz (Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution) is actually monitoring her closely (as they do with all potential and former/current terrorists). But it's true that the SPÖ has a problem with anti-semitism in their ranks as well these days, because the party is attracting more and more Muslim voters (who are generally really anti-semitic). A recent report by the before-mentioned Verfassungsschutz came to the conclusion that most anti-semitic incidents last year were actually committed by Muslims or Austrians with Muslim faith, not native non-Muslim Austrians. For example Omar Al-Rawi (SPÖ politician from Vienna) and Tarik Mete (SPÖ politician from Salzburg) are notorious controversial figures within the party ...

As for Strache and the cartoon from 2012: It's true that the cartoon below appeared on his Facebook page (Strache re-posted it from another user).

The problem for Strache is that there are 2 versions of the cartoon: The original one without the hooked nose and Stars of David (=> as a protest against the banking and political system in general). And the redrawn, newer version with the hooked nose and the Stars of David - which are clearly anti-semitic and reminiscent of the Stürmer cartoons during the Nazi era.

Strache re-posted the second, anti-semitic version of the cartoon:





So, your glass house assessment is correct.

[Omega21]

As far as I know the official stand regarding the FPÖ is of boycott (Israel recalled its ambassador between 2000-03), though in recent years far-right groups here had been making contacts with far right parties and individuals in the US\EU with the "common foe" of Islam. So far it has been rather controversial especially with FN, Afd and such (blames of Jew-washing and such).
  
I don't know what Khaled said, and personally in my experience the foreign Palestinians and sometimes the foreign Israelis\Jews are being more radical and violent (and certainly more hawkish than locals here). But if it were true I'd be rather disappointed by the SPÖ considering the strong past mutual past links and the once strong Jewish vote(my great-grandfather was a member in the days of Austro-Hungaria before he lost his citizenship).

Back to Strache, as I've seen anti-Semitic Jewish bankers caricatures on his facebook page I'd say those who dwell in glass houses...  

True, but it seems this boycott is getting "weaker" recently, no ? Especially with the right-wing coalition in Israel now. Why else would Likud politicians want to meet FPÖ politicians then ?

I also don't know really what Khaled said in the Arab Forum, but media reports suggested she tiraded against Israel etc.

As for the SPÖ: While Strache says that SPÖ/ÖVP and Greens are just sitting on the sidelines and letting her rant against Israel, the Austrian Verfassungsschutz (Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution) is actually monitoring her closely (as they do with all potential and former/current terrorists). But it's true that the SPÖ has a problem with anti-semitism in their ranks as well these days, because the party is attracting more and more Muslim voters (who are generally really anti-semitic). A recent report by the before-mentioned Verfassungsschutz came to the conclusion that most anti-semitic incidents last year were actually committed by Muslims or Austrians with Muslim faith, not native non-Muslim Austrians. For example Omar Al-Rawi (SPÖ politician from Vienna) and Tarik Mete (SPÖ politician from Salzburg) are notorious controversial figures within the party ...

As for Strache and the cartoon from 2012: It's true that the cartoon below appeared on his Facebook page (Strache re-posted it from another user).

The problem for Strache is that there are 2 versions of the cartoon: The original one without the hooked nose and Stars of David (=> as a protest against the banking and political system in general). And the redrawn, newer version with the hooked nose and the Stars of David - which are clearly anti-semitic and reminiscent of the Stürmer cartoons during the Nazi era.

Strache re-posted the second, anti-semitic version of the cartoon:





So, your glass house assessment is correct.

Worth noting is that quite a few ex SPO high ranking officials (MP's, Ministers..) were Nazis, some even in the SS.

[Tender Branson]

Griss... is being seen as some bland, generic, grey wallflower; but that's nothing new.

Today, Griss is out with a new 7-minute long biographical ad (called "A citizen is running for office") - which shows her personal side and in which she appears more "folksy" than she usually is.

It looks like this was done to tackle her professorial/judicial image - and to appear more likeable for working-class voters, who don't really connect with professorial types of politicians.

Also, Griss pledged to donate half of her Presidential salary to charity - if elected.

https://www.griss16.at/neues

...

Also, according to Ö24 there won't be any polls in the final week - because pollsters have agreed not to conduct them anymore.

[Tender Branson]

Today, municipal elections are held in St. Pölten - the capital of Lower Austria.

The SPÖ has won absolute majorities in the city in every election (except one) there since WW2.

Polls close at 4pm.

[Tender Branson]

Today, municipal elections are held in St. Pölten - the capital of Lower Austria.

The SPÖ has won absolute majorities in the city in every election (except one) there since WW2.

Polls close at 4pm.

Good news for the SPÖ: According to first trends based on roughly half the precincts counted, they are winning the election there with 55-60%. ÖVP gets 20-25%, FPÖ 15-20%, Greens 3-5%, NEOS 2-4% and other lists 2-4%. Final results are expected in the next hour.

[Tender Branson]

Final result:

[Hnv1]

Is that region of Austria not effected to a large extent by migration flux? this results are odd I would have expected FPÖ to rise

[Cranberry]

Is that region of Austria not effected to a large extent by migration flux? this results are odd I would have expected FPÖ to rise

Local elections, especially ones that are "out of turn", meaning not together with the ones in the rest of the state, are usually not at all affected by national trends, local issues play a far greater role there. I also assume that the SPÖ-mayor there sucessfuly tried to adopt a FPÖ-light "tough-on-refugees" policy, which would kind of fit for the sad, desperate, horrible place St. Pölten is.

[Tender Branson]

Is that region of Austria not effected to a large extent by migration flux? this results are odd I would have expected FPÖ to rise

Like Cranberry said, it's local elections and they are often a referendum on the incumbent mayor.

In St. Pölten's case, it's a very popular mayor who's been in office for over a decade.

Also, Lower Austria's election law (and therefore St. Pölten's too) allows the preference vote on the ballot to automatically count as party list vote. So, if someone just writes in "Matthias Stadler" (the mayor) - it's a vote for the SPÖ.

And not only that: According to Lower Austrian state and municipal election law, the preference vote for a candidate also trumps the party list vote. If you write in "Matthias Stadler" (the mayor) and vote FPÖ, your vote only counts for the SPÖ.

This was actually done to secure the Lower Austria ÖVP its absolute majorities in the state election, but in this case it also helps popular SPÖ incumbents.

[Tender Branson]

Final OGM poll for the Kurier newspaper:



Projected turnout:

72% say they will definitely vote
17% say they will probably vote
11% say they are unlikely to vote

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/rot-schwarz-out-rennen-um-platz-1-bleibt-offen/193.536.370

[Tender Branson]

Sunday's weather is projected to be perfect for voting and turnout:

Cloudy and cold (5-15°C in most of the country), rain in the West and South and even some snowfall above 1000 meters.

...

I also just realized that I won't be able to watch the "elephant debate" of all 6 presidential candidates on the ORF this Thursday - because I'm in Upper Austria on Thu/Fri for business related stuff and heading to dinner with co-workers.