Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[reciprocity]

The final campaign event from Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) in Vienna had by far the biggest crowd of all candidates (about 6.000-8.000 people). All other candidates had less than 1.000 people --- but is crowd size an indicator of electoral success ?

He seems to have the momentum... Do you think he has been underpolled due to people nervous about admitting their support of a FPO candidate to a pollster?

[Tender Branson]

Election Day is here !

Polls are now open in most of the country and Austrians start flocking to the polls.

Turnout is predicted to be somewhere between 70-75%.

Polls close at 5pm.





I'll post updates throughout the day.

...

The final campaign event from Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) in Vienna had by far the biggest crowd of all candidates (about 6.000-8.000 people). All other candidates had less than 1.000 people --- but is crowd size an indicator of electoral success ?

(picture of Hofer event)

He seems to have the momentum... Do you think he has been underpolled due to people nervous about admitting their support of a FPO candidate to a pollster?

Austrian pollsters have a long experience (30 years) of dealing with the FPÖ, so they have found ways to compensate for over- or underpolling. Usually, for national elections, the polls are pretty accurate now when it comes to the FPÖ. Sometimes, they even overpolled them - like in Vienna last year.

[Tender Branson]

According to Twitter reports of precinct workers, turnout is relatively good so far (especially in Lower Austria).

The bad weather here in the West (it actually snowed a couple hours ago and now it's raining, with temps around 0-5°C) might actually be too bad for voting and people might stay home.

Most in my family have already voted though ...

[Tender Branson]

Vienna:

Until 10am, turnout in Vienna was 10.82% - which is up from the 9.57% in the state election last year.

https://www.wien.gv.at/rk/msg/2016/24007.html

Final turnout last year was a high 75%.

[PetrSokol]

Are there already some unoficial results from these small precintcs which were closed at 10:00?

[PetrSokol]

I deleted it eventhough Im not in Austria and Im not Austrian citizen.....

[Tender Branson]

Those numbers are obviously a hoax, there is no such thing as "already counted by 10am".

Besides, posting actual votes (no matter if they might be accurate or not) while people are still voting is not allowed under Forum rules, so please delete these numbers.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in Vienna at 2pm is still running slightly ahead of the 2015 state election turnout:

2016: 38.29%
2015: 37.84%

https://www.wien.gv.at/rk/msg/2016/04/24008.html

But this is without postal votes, and there were 40.000 fewer postal votes requested in Vienna for the election today compared with the 2015 state election.

So, if last year had 75% turnout - it's likely that Vienna will have ~70% turnout today.

[Figueira]

It's the big day! When do we get the results? I'm hoping for Green guy vs. Griss.

[Tender Branson]

It's the big day! When do we get the results? I'm hoping for Green guy vs. Griss.

Polls close at 5pm, which is in slightly over an hour.

The live stream with a 1st projection at 5pm will start in 45 minutes.

I'll post the link for the live stream later, when it's available.

Vote counting will take about 2-3 hours then.

[Cranberry]

The bad weather here in the West (it actually snowed a couple hours ago and now it's raining, with temps around 0-5°C) might actually be too bad for voting and people might stay home.

I don't know which west you are talking about, but here in Western Tirol the weather isn't actually too bad, right now there's even the sun out. Then again, you live out in Salzburg and not in the "proper" West

On a more relevant note, polls have closed at 4pm in all major cities except Innsbruck and Vienna. With most rural municipalities already closing their polls earlier (starting at 11am), and the whole state of Vorarlberg closing polls at 1pm, this means that the first projections should already have a sizeable chunk of counted votes behind it, and thus be quite accurate.

[Tender Branson]

The bad weather here in the West (it actually snowed a couple hours ago and now it's raining, with temps around 0-5°C) might actually be too bad for voting and people might stay home.

I don't know which west you are talking about, but here in Western Tirol the weather isn't actually too bad, right now there's even the sun out. Then again, you live out in Salzburg and not in the "proper" West

On a more relevant note, polls have closed at 4pm in all major cities except Innsbruck and Vienna. With most rural municipalities already closing their polls earlier (starting at 11am), and the whole state of Vorarlberg closing polls at 1pm, this means that the first projections should already have a sizeable chunk of counted votes behind it, and thus be quite accurate.

Here it was just snowing again a few minutes ago, but now it stopped. And it's cloudy.

[Tender Branson]

Amazing news:

The ORF will have their results page today with maps down to the municipal level, not just the district level.

[Cranberry]

Some "fun" activity for the waiting until 5pm - try to guess which candidate will top the polls in which state.

This election will be extremely interesting to watch on psephological grounds - as the hegemony of SPÖ/ÖVP will truly be broken for the first time (@Tender: really interesting article on that in Saturday's Presse, you should check that out), the map will look truly novel and it will be interesting to see new regional patterns emerge.

Vorarlberg: the probable weakness of Khol leaves a void in this ÖVP-stronghold, but the FPÖ is traditionally strong out there, so it will probably be Hofer at #1
Tirol: here we usually have quite similar results as in Vbg, maybe a little weaker FPÖ; Innsbruck and its commuter belt is also one of the strongest Greens region in all of Austria; so I'll just go out and say VdB has a shot of winning my home state (probably just me wishing )
Carinthia: obvious Hofer win
Styria: Hofer will probably win there, though I'd guess Griss has one of her strongest showings here
Salzburg: will probably be quite similar to the final result in Austria at-large, so I'm guessing whoever wins Salzburg turns out first... so, erh, Sascha?
OÖ: probably going for Hofer, I guess
NÖ: hard to say, ÖVP and SPÖ are both usually stronger here than elsewhere, so similar to Salzburg, I'll say whoever wins nationally wins NÖ as well
Burgenland: Hofer
Vienna: Hundstorfer and Lugner will both have their strongest showings here, but I should guess VdB has enough support among the Bürgerlichen Lager to win the capital

[Tender Branson]

Live stream has started:



http://tvthek.orf.at/live/Wahl-16-Hochrechnungen-Analysen-Reaktionen/12509012

Click on the wheel on the lower right side and switch to HD quality.

[aross]

Late, I know, but FWIW here is my (slightly pessimistic) prediction:
Hofer 27%
Griss 23%
VdB 22%
Hundstorfer 16%
Khol 10%
Lugner 2%

[Tender Branson]

1st ORF/SORA projection in about 10 minutes ...

[jaichind]

Any links to results itself when they come in ?

[Tender Branson]

Any links to results itself when they come in ?

Official page:

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at

The ORF page will go online at 5pm too.

[Tender Branson]

2 minutes until the first projection ...

[Tender Branson]

Daaaamn ...

[jaichind]

Hofer (FPÖ)                         30 
Van der Bellen (Greens)       28
Griss (Indy)                         17
Hundstorfer (SPÖ)               14
Khol (ÖVP)                          10
Lugner (Indy)                       1

Polarization toward the top two candidates.  ÖVP voter tactical voting for Griss and FPÖ  and SPÖ voter tactical voting for Greens.  My rule of thumb is always bet on FPÖ doing better than their polling unless the populist Right vote is split between two viable candidates/parties.

I thought I was aggressive on FPÖ but even that was not enough

[Tender Branson]

[jaichind]

I guess if I was Hofer I rater Van de Bellen comes in second versus Griss.  He makes for a easier second round opponent.

[Tender Branson]

37% for Hofer ?

Literally, WTF ?