Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

The recent polling is incredibly erratic for Austrian standards (where party #s usually don't change by more than 1-2% each month).

With 2 more polls out today, the FPÖ is ranging as low as 27% (IMAS), but also as high as 33% (Gallup). The Profil poll has them at 31%.

Also, the ÖVP is somewhere between 21-25% and the SPÖ between 22-26%. NEOS is also bouncing around between 5% and 8% ...

The Greens have almost no movement: 12-13%

http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/FPOe-Chef_Strache_bleibt_weiter_im_Umfrage-Hoch-Wegen_Fluechtlingen-Story-487756

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-spoe-fpoe-6161464

Averages of all 3 polls:

30.3% FPÖ
23.7% SPÖ
23.3% ÖVP
12.7% Greens
  7.0% NEOS
  3.0% Others

[Tender Branson]

There's a mayoral by-election in Hohenems (Vorarlberg) on Dec. 20, which the FPÖ-candidate might win (according to a recent VN poll which showed a 6-point lead for Egger).

But now the SPÖ and Greens came out to endorse the ÖVP candidate, to prevent an FPÖ victory. Elections during Christmas are totally uncommon, which means turnout will be low (~60%). In the recent election there, the ÖVP candidate beat Egger by just 2% (51-49). So, everything is possible this time (pretty similar situation like in the French regional elections).

Guess who won ...

55.8% Egger (FPÖ)
44.2% Amann (ÖVP)

Turnout wasn't all too bad after all: 62%

Link to results.

This result is of importance because Egger is also the Vorarlberg state party leader of the FPÖ (he will step down from that office to serve as mayor. A new state party leader will be elected next year).

And because Egger (while campaigning for the 2009 state election) called the director of the Jewish Museum of Hohenems (Hohenems has a longstanding Jewish tradition) an "Exile-Jew from America". Egger has only apologized for this statement 6 years later (this spring).

[Tender Branson]

M&R has recently polled 1.000 Austrians about 2nd (!) round presidential preferences and they have Lower Austria governor Pröll (ÖVP) ahead in every matchup. It should be noted that M&R is an internal ÖVP-pollster, so take it with some salt:

[Tender Branson]

MP Jessy Lintl (ex-Team Stronach, then Indy) joined the FPÖ club in parliament today.

The new seat allocation now:

52 SPÖ
51 ÖVP
38 FPÖ
24 Greens
  9 NEOS
  6 TS
  3 Indy (all ex-FPÖ, but were kicked out of the party)

https://www.parlament.gv.at/WWER/NR/SITZPLANNR/index.shtml

With the kicked-out FPÖ-MPs, ÖVP-FPÖ would actually have a majority in parliament now (92-91) after all the recent party switching - but of course nothing like that will happen.

[DavidB.]

Didn't know these academic titles were also used so often in Austria (I did know it for Germany, of course). I assume it enhances the perception of a political sphere in which "the ordinary man" is not represented.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

https://www.parlament.gv.at/WWER/NR/SITZPLANNR/index.shtml

I wonder why FPO: sits to the left compared to O:VP?

[Tender Branson]

https://www.parlament.gv.at/WWER/NR/SITZPLANNR/index.shtml

I wonder why FPO: sits to the left compared to O:VP?

No special reason I guess.

[Tender Branson]

Freda Meissner-Blau, pioneer & founding mother of the Austrian ecologic movement and Green Party and leading activist for Green causes such as successful protests against the Zwentendorf nuclear power plant and Hainburg has died. She was 88 years old.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freda_Meissner-Blau

RIP.

[Cranberry]

https://www.parlament.gv.at/WWER/NR/SITZPLANNR/index.shtml

I wonder why FPO: sits to the left compared to O:VP?

Comes from the times of bipartisanism and Proporz, I guess, when the ÖVP was the party of the right, the SPÖ the one of the left, and the handful of VdU/FPÖ-MPs would just sit inbetween the two.

Left-right seating in parliament isn't that significant in Austria though. Left to right it currently is SPÖ-NEOS-Team Stronach-Greens-FPÖ-ÖVP, which obviously doesn't correlate with the positioning of the parties on the left-right axis (which would be more like Greens/SPÖ-NEOS-ÖVP/TS-FPÖ)

[Simfan34]

Freda Meissner-Blau, pioneer & founding mother of the Austrian ecologic movement and Green Party and leading activist for Green causes such as successful protests against the Zwentendorf nuclear power plant and Hainburg has died. She was 88 years old.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freda_Meissner-Blau

RIP.

HP

[Tender Branson]

New chart showing how many asylum seekers are currently getting welfare, by state (and how many cities in each state have already agreed to take/house asylum seekers):



The state of Tyrol is extremely lazy in taking up asylum seekers, mostly because municipal elections will take place next February and the mayors don't want to "burden" the electorate ...

(The city where I live, Zell am See, has taken 200 asylum seekers so far (2%), which is more than the 1.5% quota of the population that was set by the Interior Ministry.)

http://kurier.at/chronik/oesterreich/fluechtlinge-832-gemeinden-ohne-asylwerber/171.656.877

[Tender Branson]

First Upper Austria election poll after the Sept. state election (by IMAS):

34% ÖVP (-2.5)
32% FPÖ (+1.5)
17% SPÖ (-1.5)
13% Greens (+2.5)
  4% NEOS (+0.5)

n=1000

http://ooe.orf.at/news/stories/2749556

[Tender Branson]

A new Tyrol state election poll (GMK for the Bezirksblätter) shows a massive FPÖ-surge.

This is interesting, because the FPÖ polled quite low in the recent years there - but Tyrol was actually a pretty strong FPÖ-state back in the 1990s during Haider.



http://www.meinbezirk.at/land-tirol/politik/bezirksblaetter-umfrage-tirol-rueckt-nach-rechts-d1589308.html

A new TT poll, also for Tyrol, by Research Affairs (never heard of them) shows a totally different picture though:



http://www.tt.com/politik/landespolitik/10917464-91/tt-umfrage-blau-f%C3%A4hrt-auf-der-%C3%BCberholspur.csp

Both polls were done roughly over the same timespan, but GMK is usally a very good pollster - so I would rate their results slightly better than the TT poll.

[rob in cal]

  It would be hilarious of the SPO got so weak in the Tyrol that it was in danger of not winning any seats in the Landtag.  Still a way to go for that I realize.

[Tender Branson]

  It would be hilarious of the SPO got so weak in the Tyrol that it was in danger of not winning any seats in the Landtag.  Still a way to go for that I realize.

Yeah, not happening anytime soon - but the Vorarlberg SPÖ will beat the Tyrol SPÖ if it ever happens.

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer (FPÖ & 3rd President of the Austrian Parliament) has ruled out running for Austrian President in the April election, saying he "feels too young for that office" (=> he's 44).

http://derstandard.at/2000028203849/FPOe-Hofer-fuehlt-sich-fuer-Hofburg-zu-jung

That means the FPÖ will likely go with the President of the Austrian Court of Audit, Josef Moser, as their candidate. Moser's term as Audit Court President is ending in the summer, which is also when the new Austrian President would be sworn in, so that would fit into the FPÖ's & Moser's plans (in the very unlikely event that he wins the election ... ).

http://www.rechnungshof.gv.at/en/aca/president/dr-josef-moser.html

[Tender Branson]

It's no secret that the FPÖ wants to abolish the office of Austrian President, so FPÖ-leader Strache renewed a decade-old FPÖ-plan yesterday to merge the office of President with the Austrian Chancellor, who would then be directly elected by the voters when they are voting in the parliamentary elections.

Because most FPÖ-voters also want to abolish the President, it's already clear that the FPÖ-candidate for President in April (if there is one) will not go far (no higher than 20%) - because many FPÖ-voters will simply stay home.

http://derstandard.at/2000028260506/Strache-will-Kanzler-und-Bundespraesident-fusionieren

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Would the new position be called the Fuhrer?

[Tender Branson]

Would the new position be called the Führer?

Dunno. It would be better to just write an email to the FPÖ headquarters and ask them ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He'd do that, but as he doesn't want to appear on an MI5 watchlist he'd rather you'd ask for him.

[Tender Branson]

He'd do that, but as he doesn't want to appear on an MI5 watchlist he'd rather you'd ask for him.

So you think it's better if I do it and end up on the Austrian Interior Ministry's watchlist for asking stuff about the Führer ?

[Tender Branson]

In roughly 2.5 hours, Austria will become one of the few countries on the planet where gay couples will have full adoption rights, but no full marriage rights (only civil unions).

(The Constitutional Court ruled earlier this year that gay couples must have universal adoption rights equal to hetero couples and this has to take effect on Jan 1, 2016).

[Tender Branson]

The April Presidential Election now also has a Wiki page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_presidential_election,_2016

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP will debate/decide on Sunday & Monday about their presidential candidate (and that will likely be Lower Austria Governor Erwin Pröll).

[DavidB.]

Question. So there are people who want to abolish the presidency. Who, according to them, should then be the Head of State? The Prime Minister?