Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[DavidB.]

Alternative medicine? Wtf?

[Tender Branson]

Alternative medicine? Wtf?

Yes.

Alternative medicine

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_medicine

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lol wtf. Oh, austria

[Tender Branson]

Austria's population has grown by almost 100.000 people over the past year, according to new statistics:

Oct. 1, 2015 population: 8.662.588 (+95.852 people, +1.11%)
Oct. 1, 2014 population: 8.566.736

Vienna has grown from 1.789.479 to 1.826.030 in the past year (+36.551 people, +2.04%)

Growth is likely to top 100.000 when the Q4 figures are released.

The number of Austrian citizens has declined by 6.500 over the past year, while the number of foreigners has increased by 102.400

The percentage of foreigners among the total population has increased from 13.1% to 14.2%

http://www.statistik.at/web_de/statistiken/menschen_und_gesellschaft/bevoelkerung/bevoelkerungsstand_und_veraenderung/bevoelkerung_zu_jahres-_quartalsanfang/043397.html

[Tender Branson]

If this reckless growth continues, Vienna will become a "2 million city" again in 2020, roughly 100 years after it had 2 million people for the last time.

It should overtake Bucharest fairly soon to become the 6th biggest city in the EU after London, Berlin, Madrid, Rome and Paris.

A look back: In 1990, Vienna only had 1.4 million people ...

[Tender Branson]

Austrian states, ranked by population growth in the past year (Oct. '14-Oct. '15):

01: Vienna (+2.04%)
02: Tyrol (+1.16%)
03: Vorarlberg (+1.12%)
04: Salzburg (+1.11%)
05: Upper Austria (+0.96%)
06: Lower Austria (+0.82%)
07: Styria (+0.74%)
08: Burgenland (+0.72%)
09: Carinthia (+0.42%)

[Tender Branson]

It's also not just asylum seekers who are increasingly coming to Austria:

Over the last year, Austria also had an immigration surplus of 50.000 from citizens of the other 27 EU-countries and the European Economic Area+Switzerland.

[Tender Branson]

If this reckless growth continues, Vienna will become a "2 million city" again in 2020, roughly 100 years after it had 2 million people for the last time.

It should overtake Bucharest fairly soon to become the 6th biggest city in the EU after London, Berlin, Madrid, Rome and Paris.

A look back: In 1990, Vienna only had 1.4 million people ...

This reckless growth is also creating tons of problems in Vienna: Not only is the city piling up its debt to house and properly accommodate all these new people (=> via welfare payments), it's also a problem for traffic (admin) and city planning because the building of new apartments for these new people cannot keep speed with the new arrivals, which in turn drives up rents dramatically.

Anyone who still supports this reckless mass immigration is IMO a douche, mostly because the additional building proposals on the Vienna periphery destroys valuable agricultural space and fields, recreation areas and leads to increased traffic.

And I say that from an ecologist perspective and not from a far-right perspective ...

[tpfkaw]

Alternative medicine? Wtf?

I think a lot of that might be people not knowing what the term means.

But OTOH Austria does seem to be the world capital for crackpot alternative medicine, so maybe not.

[Tender Branson]

Red-Green 2.0 is now official in Vienna:

http://derstandard.at/2000025688676/Rot-Gruen-in-Wien-fix

Coalition talks concluded today and a 160-page coalition contract was agreed on, which will be voted on by the SPÖ and Green party commissions tomorrow.

The new (old) city government and details of the coalition contract will be presented tomorrow as well.

SPÖ-Mayor Michael Häupl and Vice-Mayor and Green leader Maria Vassilakou will continue as well.

[Tender Branson]

There was a mayoral by-election today in Lend, a city next to Zell am See, where I live.

The city is home to a large aluminium plant and therefore the SPÖ long dominated there starting in the 1880s.

With the metal boom over in the 1950s and 1960s, rural flight started and the town lost about 50% of the population. In the 2014 municipal elections the ÖVP almost overtook the SPÖ there for the first time (49% to 51%).

Then the incumbent SPÖ-mayor decided to retire.

In todays election, the SPÖ candidate Michaela Höfelsauer easily won the election with 57.52% of the vote against the ÖVP candidate Hannes Eder. Turnout was 88.06%. Höfelsauer is the first female mayor in the city.

[Tender Branson]

First poll after Paris (Gallup):



Do you think Austria could become a target for terrorists ?

69% Yes
24% No

Do you think Austria is prepared enough to deal with a terrorist attack ?

76% No
14% Yes

Are you personally afraid about a future terrorist attack in Austria ?

57% No
36% Yes

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/chronik/69-sehen-Oesterreich-als-Terror-Ziel/212745634

[Tender Branson]

Once again it's Foreign & Integration minister Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) who's taking the lead in dealing with the asylum crisis and integration of the hordes of foreigners, while most of the remaining SPÖVP coalition sits on the sidelines doing nothing. No wonder he's the most popular cabinet member ...

New asylum integration plan announced

Austrian Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz has announced a new integration plan for asylum seekers, in which German-language learning is rewarded and radicalism is punished.

There are 50 points in the new plan, which is intended to help asylum seekers become part of the community, and to be better prepared for joining the labour market.
 
As well as taking language lessons, migrants wishing to stay in Austria will have to undergo at least eight hours of compulsory training in basic European values.
 
If they refuse to participate in the language and values courses they will face penalties, including cuts of up to 50 percent of the social security benefits they receive during the integration period.
 
There will also be penalties for immigrants who are found to have engaged in radical behaviour, including increased community service.

According to Austrian broadcaster ORF, some of the key points of the plan include:

* Values. People receiving asylum are required to attend a course with an emphasis on values and orientation. On the curriculum: democracy, human rights, manners, values orientation.

* Racism. Asylum applicants with racist or radicalized ideas must attend special de-radicalization workshops.

* Kindergarten. The second year of kindergarten is compulsory. Kindergartens must share the constitutionally enshrined values. This is especially true for Islamic kindergartens, of which there are around 150 in Vienna. Kindergarten teachers must have good German language skills and recognised qualifications.

* School. Civic education should be a school subject.

* Religion. Promotion of a "European-style" Islam.

http://www.thelocal.at/20151119/new-asylum-integration-plan-announced

[Tender Branson]

A new Profil/Unique Research poll shows pretty much the same results as the Gallup poll on terrorism:

"Are you worried that terrorists could attack somewhere in Austria as well ?"

67% Yes (by party: 89% FPÖ, 59% SPÖ, 58% ÖVP, 49% NEOS, 29% Greens)

"Do you favour tougher surveillance measures (internet, phones, etc.) against potential terrorists ?" * (remember that the universial mass surveillance and storage of communications data from all people was ruled unconstitutional in Austria about a year ago and was therefore stopped).

59% Yes (by party: 67% FPÖ, 64% ÖVP, 60% SPÖ, 50% NEOS, 34% Greens)

"Should EU countries step up the armed fight against IS in Syria and Iraq ?"

52% Yes (by party: 66% FPÖ, 61% NEOS, 56% SPÖ, 41% ÖVP, 35% Greens)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20151121_OTS0004/profil-umfrage-67-befuerchten-anschlaege

[Tender Branson]

Profil/Unique Research federal election poll:

32% FPÖ (+11%)
22% SPÖ (-5%)
20% ÖVP (-4%)
13% Greens (+1%)
  9% NEOS (+4%)
  4% Others (-7%)

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-fpoe-nummer-6085212

[Tender Branson]

April 2016 Presidential election update:

NEOS and Team Stronach have now said that they will definitely not run their own candidates, but both might back the candidacy of Irmgard Griss instead.

The other parties will wait until the New Year holidays are over and then present their candidates.

It's still unclear if the FPÖ will run a candidate on their own, or if they'll back Griss too.

http://derstandard.at/2000025796902/Bundespraesidentschaft-Kandidaten-halten-sich-noch-zurueck

[Tender Branson]

neuwal.com chart on which coalitions would be possible right now or not:

Absolute majority of seats = 92 of 183

[Tender Branson]

More terror-polling, this time by the (historically best) pollster OGM for the public broadcaster ORF:



http://kurier.at/politik/inland/grosse-mehrheit-ist-fuer-datenspeicherung/165.358.168

...

"After Paris, are you worried that terrorists could attack somewhere in Austria as well ?"

55-25 Yes

"France has imposed a state of emergency. Should a state of emergency also be imposed in Austria ?"

49-30 Yes

"Comprehensive communications data storage and mass surveillance of people is not allowed anymore in Austria. Should it be re-introduced to combat terrorism ?"

70-18 Yes

"Should comprehensive border controls be introduced again in Austria ?"

52-39 Yes

...

I would answer "Undecided", "No", "No" and "Yes" on these questions.

[DavidB.]

Problematic that support for mass surveillance is surging (but not surprising, of course). Given the experiences in Paris, where quite some terrorists were already "known" by the intelligence services, it would probably be better if screening would become "deeper", of people who are already being suspected, rather than "broader".

I'd answer No, No, No, and Yes. The first question I was also asked in a Dutch poll. It is a strange question. Could a terrorist attack happen in the Netherlands (or Austria)? Don't know, probably... Do I fear it? No, because it doesn't make sense. I also don't fear a car accident, even if it could happen.

[Tender Branson]

New April 2016 Presidential poll (Gallup):



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Vor-Hofburg-Wahl-wird-die-Regierung-umgebildet/213082750

[Tender Branson]

Former Austrian Supreme Court Chief Justice Irmgard Griss has launched an exploratory committee for President yesterday, as an Indy candidate:



http://www.irmgardgriss.at

She also went to the liberal NEOS Lab yesterday, which was packed with people, to speak about her views on the Presidency. After the event, she got standing ovations from the NEOS crowd and NEOS-leader Strolz said that the party will decide on Dec. 17 if they'll back her Indy run. All signs are now pointing towards an endorsement.

http://derstandard.at/2000026255103/Neos-und-Griss-Das-kann-durchaus-was-werden

FPÖ and Team Stronach could follow NEOS in backing her anti-establishment candidacy.

During the event she said that she's a proud European and that she would take a stand against hatred, racism and hate speech as President (=> pandering to NEOS), while also saying that the constitution of the country needs to be respected with law and order and that all refugees have to be properly registered at the border (=> pandering to a future FPÖ/TS endorsement).

[Tender Branson]

In Vienna, Red-Green 2.0 was sworn in today.

But mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ) was only elected with 52 votes and vice-mayor Maria Vassilakou (Greens) with just 51 votes, despite the Red-Green coalition having 54 of 100 seats.

http://kurier.at/chronik/wien/rot-gruen-in-wien-buergermeister-haeupl-mit-knapper-mehrheit-gewaehlt/165.858.125

[Tender Branson]

The budget for 2016 was passed in parliament today.

Austria will have a planned 1.4% budget deficit (as a percentage of GDP) next year (down from 1.9% this year) and the debt level is projected to decrease for the first time in a few years from 87% this year to 85% of the GDP next year.

The debt level is then projected to decrease below 80% in the next years to 2020, mostly because the HYPO bad bank is winded down until then and with its assets sold it will also reduce the debt level after the bad bank increased the debt in the last years. We have already seen the same thing in Germany in the previous years. Also, Austria currently has very low interest rates to pay for its debts @ the international bond market.

The budget next year also includes an income tax cut, the first in about 10 years - which will lower the tax burden for employers and lead to about 5% more pay for eymployees on average. This could help further improve Austria's lagging economy, because people are expected to spend more with their additional cash.

[Tender Branson]

Irmgard Griss is stepping up her indy presidential campaign lately, appearing even in the ORF's news show (but only during the midnight one, because the Red/Black ORF is of course looking not to give her a platform during the primetime news).

She definitely needs to increase her name recognition in the coming months, because so far only 40% have an opinion of her. But of those who do, she ranks the most favorable of presidential candidates.

That's why she gave some interviews recently to the TT, the VOL and ÖSTERREICH newspapers.

Some points out of these interviews:

* She's against an upper limit for asylum seekers coming to Austria (like Faymann and Merkel)
* She's in favour of limiting legal immigration though
* She's against hate speech
* She's strongly pro-European
* She's undecided about swearing in Strache, but thinks it won't happen anyway
* She wants to collect 1 Mio. € by Christmas for her Indy run (she already collected 100K €)
* She would not mind being endorsed by parties
* She won't take any money from supporting parties (most likely NEOS, FPÖ, TS)
* She would take money from private persons (the "society") though
* She's against house arrest and electronic shackles for known Muslim extremists
* She's against a border fence to Slovenia, but says every asylum seeker needs to be registered
* She questions the long-standing Austrian "neutrality"

http://www.tt.com/politik/10805384-91/irmgard-griss-will-eine-million-euro-sammeln.csp

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Griss-stellt-Neutralitaet-infrage/213893893

...

Will be interesting to see if the FPÖ still thinks about backing her run, after her comments on Europe, no border fence, no upper limit for refugees and thinking neutrality is outdated.

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg:

After the FPÖ's troubles and party split, now the Team Stronach there is imploding (and pretty badly too).

This is important, because the TS is in the state government together with the ÖVP and Greens.

The Team Stronach has 3 MPs in the state parliament, of which one left the party recently and announced that he will vote with the ÖVP in the future, but technically remain "independent".

Also, the only state government member from the TS also quit the party.

This means that the current state government only has 19 of the 36 seats in parliament left and it is mostly depending on the former TS party switcher who became and Independent for the next 2.5 years until new elections are to take place. (The remaining 2 TS MPs have said they will continue to vote with the government, but both have a serious grudge against the 2 defecting ones and also to some extent against the Greens for traffic related reasons - so they might actually vote against the government at some point).

The FPÖ, while still licking its wounds from the party split earlier this year, already wants new elections.

The SPÖ, which is also still licking its wounds from the financial scandal in 2012/13, does not want new elections - nor does the government.

It remains to be seen if the government survives the next years, but even though it's shaky I think that Konrad (ex-TS) will be reliable enough to secure the majorities for them.

If there were new elections, the most likely (working) scenario would be ÖVP-FPÖ and the state ÖVP is not amused with an option like this.

http://derstandard.at/2000026681821/Eine-Zitterpartie-fuer-die-Salzburger-Landesregierung