Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

Question. So there are people who want to abolish the presidency. Who, according to them, should then be the Head of State? The Prime Minister?

The SUPERCHANCELLOR:

It's no secret that the FPÖ wants to abolish the office of Austrian President, so FPÖ-leader Strache renewed a decade-old FPÖ-plan yesterday to merge the office of President with the Austrian Chancellor, who would then be directly elected by the voters when they are voting in the parliamentary elections.

Because most FPÖ-voters also want to abolish the President, it's already clear that the FPÖ-candidate for President in April (if there is one) will not go far (no higher than 20%) - because many FPÖ-voters will simply stay home.

http://derstandard.at/2000028260506/Strache-will-Kanzler-und-Bundespraesident-fusionieren

[DavidB.]

Ah sorry, hadn't seen that. Interesting proposal. If this directly elected "superchancellor" would have to be the head of the government as well, it would effectively become much harder for the FPÖ to ever lead a government. Not such a smart idea from an electoral perspective.

[Tender Branson]

Ah sorry, hadn't seen that. Interesting proposal. If this directly elected "superchancellor" would have to be the head of the government as well, it would effectively become much harder for the FPÖ to ever lead a government. Not such a smart idea from an electoral perspective.

Not really. Don't forget that if parliamentary elections are held together with Presidential elections, it would drive up turnout to 85% or something - increasing FPÖ turnout. I guess the FPÖ's proposal means that the SuperChancellor is elected only with a simply majority without a runoff. If there's no runoff, Strache as leading candidate for SC would do extremely well - he could easily win against Faymann or Mitterlehner (just look at the polls). Of course, if there's a runoff he'd end up like the LePens in Round 2 of the regionals recently ...

[DavidB.]

I guess the FPÖ's proposal means that the SuperChancellor is elected only with a simply majority without a runoff. If there's no runoff, Strache as leading candidate for SC would do extremely well - he could easily win against Faymann or Mitterlehner (just look at the polls). Of course, if there's a runoff he'd end up like the LePens in Round 2 of the regionals recently ...

You're entirely right, I'd assumed this would imply a runoff, but that's of course not necessary.

[Tender Branson]

The Salzburg Team Stronach has now fully disintegrated.

Today, another state MP for the party has joined the ÖVP parliamentary club.

Of the 3 state MPs and 1 government member from the TS, 3 have now joined the ÖVP club - while the remaining one has said today he'll work together with the remaining FPÖ-MP (remember that the FPÖ also split last summer and only has 1 MP remaining in the state, while the others have all joined the FPS splinter party).

http://salzburg.orf.at/news/stories/2751120

[Tender Branson]

Quite an interesting and shocking last 24 hours on the Presidential front:

* Erwin Pröll, who everyone thought would be the ÖVP-candidate for President, "shockingly" ruled out running for President (he actually already revealed it to ÖVP-leader Mitterlehner before Christmas, but Mitty waited until now to find an alternative candidate => see below).



http://derstandard.at/2000028693276/Erwin-Proell-zu-seiner-Absage-Auch-Emotionen-spielen-eine-Rolle

* Alexander Van der Bellen announced that he would run for President, just hours after the Pröll announcement. VdB is a former, popular Green Party leader - but will run as an "Independent" or "multi-partisan" candidate (which means he's not "officially" the Green Party candidate, to attract many centrist voters, but the Greens will "endorse" him and run his campaign of course).



http://derstandard.at/2000028674916/Alexander-Van-der-Bellen-kandidiert-zur-Praesidentschaftswahl

* And if this is not enough, internal ÖVP-leaks are now saying that ÖVP-"dinosaur" Andreas Khol will be their Presidential candidate. Khol is a former Austrian Parliament President and for a long time now already the leader of the Austrian "Union for the Retired" - which has big influence in Austrian politics since most (and steadily more) voters are old and retired. Khol, from the state of Tyrol, is also an arch-conservatice Catholiban and mastermind in setting up the "black-blue" ÖVP-FPÖ coalition after the 1999 federal election.



http://derstandard.at/2000028705112/Berichte-Andreas-Khol-soll-fuer-OeVP-bei-Praesidentenwahl-kandidieren

[Tender Branson]

I'm currently undecided between Alexander VdB and Irmgard Griss for President.

Both are highly competent, likeable and would be great Presidents.

I'm leaning a bit towards VdB, but Griss as the first female Austrian President would also be something.

Anyway, here's Van der Bellen's campaign launch video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ba4jalujuR0

And website:

https://www.vanderbellen.at

Logo:



Interestingly, his campaign website is not in Green - but in Black and Yellow - which is also what the ÖVP uses for many of their websites and posters. I guess VdB is really hunting for some ÖVP voters.

[Oak Hills]

So, what does the president of Austria even do? Is it an entirely ceremonial position, or could the president conceivably play a roll in government formation following an inconclusive election result?

[Tender Branson]

So, what does the president of Austria even do? Is it an entirely ceremonial position, or could the president conceivably play a roll in government formation following an inconclusive election result?

Mostly ceremonial:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Austria#Responsibilities

But it could get interesting if the Green candidate Alexander Van Der Bellen is elected President somehow. Because he already said that he will not swear in a Chancellor H.C. Strache (FPÖ) or an FPÖ-government after the 2018 election ... which he could do, but it would create some real controversy.

[DavidB.]

Would that really make it harder to form a government with the FPÖ, or is it just symbolical?

[Tender Branson]

Would that really make it harder to form a government with the FPÖ, or is it just symbolical?

It would make it impossible. Van der Bellen would simply not swear them in.

[DavidB.]

It would make it impossible. Van der Bellen would simply not swear them in.

Wow. You know I don't particularly like the FPÖ, but that is blatantly undemocratic.

[Tender Branson]

It would make it impossible. Van der Bellen would simply not swear them in.

Wow. You know I don't particularly like the FPÖ, but that is blatantly undemocratic.

It's a checks-and-balances thing. The President has this constitutional right (not to swear in Strache or the FPÖ for a future government), but usually the President respects the voters. Even Klestil did swear in ÖVP-FPÖ - but as we know, he didn't like it at all - and only did so with grinding teeth.

But if VdB thinks that Strache as Chancellor or another FPÖ government is harming Austria's image abroad, it's in his powers to block them from gaining power.

[DavidB.]

Well, another argument for the Dutch monarchy

[Flocke]

Wow. You know I don't particularly like the FPÖ, but that is blatantly undemocratic.

Undemocratic like the US and France?

[DavidB.]

Undemocratic like the US and France?

The US has a presidential system, France has a semi-presidential system. In Austria, however, the president is the merely symbolical head of state. Therefore, the president interfering in politics in an overly ideological manner can be considered illegitimate. Seems rather obvious to me...

[MaxQue]

Undemocratic like the US and France?

The US has a presidential system, France has a semi-presidential system. In Austria, however, the president is the merely symbolical head of state. Therefore, the president interfering in politics in an overly ideological manner can be considered illegitimate. Seems rather obvious to me...

However, if that happens, that's because he would have a majority of the votes in the 2nd round, while openly endorsing and running on that position.
We couldn't argue he has no legitimity.

[Flocke]

Undemocratic like the US and France?

The US has a presidential system, France has a semi-presidential system. In Austria, however, the president is the merely symbolical head of state.

Austria has a semi-presidential constitution. But unlike France we use PR, which usually results in coalition governments, where the decisions are made within the cabinet.

[Tender Branson]

Anyway, the ÖVP will officially present their Presidential candidate tonight.

Even though there are leaks that it will be Andreas Khol, there are still people out there who are speculating that it could be someone else - like Christoph Leitl (President of the Austrian Chamber of Commerce) or former Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel.

We'll see ...

Meanwhile NEOS has announced that they will support both Griss and VdB for President, without running their own candidate.

[Tender Branson]

Oh God - please not:

Austria's Donald Trump (just without the xenophobic talk) is thinking about running for President ... again (after getting 10% of the vote in the 1998 election) !



http://www.oe24.at/leute/oesterreich/Lugner-Trete-an-um-Praesident-zu-werden/219162951

[DavidB.]

However, if that happens, that's because he would have a majority of the votes in the 2nd round, while openly endorsing and running on that position.

That is of course true. Still, for an Austrian president it would be out of the ordinary to do this, but you're right: one could argue that this would be legitimate (with which I still don't agree, but I see the argument).

[Omega21]

What are the Candidates stances on immigration? (Middle east/Africa) immigrants that are currently enetering the EU.

[Tender Branson]

What are the Candidates stances on immigration? (Middle east/Africa) immigrants that are currently enetering the EU.

Summed up:

Hundstorfer (likely SPÖ-candidate) status-quo policy, let them in like last year with no upper limit

Khol (likely ÖVP-candidate): a slightly tougher status-quo policy, let them in like last year but with an upper limit of ~80.000 per year, tougher penalties for criminal migrants and welfare-abusers

Unnamed FPÖ-candidate: unknown position, but if from the far-right wing: the standard FPÖ policies of keeping them out, if a more centrist candidate like Moser: more like the ÖVP's positions

Van der Bellen (Green candidate) much like the SPÖ's position, no upper limit, plus in favour of providing all the goodies/welfare for the migrants who came here

Griss (Indy candidate) a mix of the ÖVP and Green policies, but she's been very vague so far.

[Omega21]

Maybe the ovp policy is best, or maybe a more moderate fpo policy..

After all the new year rapes and all, i think tougher measures are needed, plus giving away Austrian tax payers money to anyone thah comes left and right is absurd.

Thanks for the info btw

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP indeed nominated Andreas Khol yesterday as their presidential candidate.

http://derstandard.at/2000028780586/OeVP-Kandidat-Khol-als-Ansage-in-Richtung-FPOe-Waehler

SPÖ and FPÖ will announce their candidates next weekend. There's now even speculation that FPÖ-leader Strache himself could run for President to max out the FPÖ's potential in this election and force a runoff with an FPÖ candidate for the first time.