Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Omega21]

I wonder how it would play out if VdB and Hofer make the runoff ...

Under normal circumstances, SPÖ/ÖVP/NEOS-voters would mostly come out and vote for VdB over Hofer, but these are no "normal" times.

Could it end like the mayoral election in Hohenems, just on a national level ?

In Hohenems, slightly before Christmas, the ÖVP-candidate lost to the FPÖ-candidate in a stunning upset - despite SPÖ/Greens/NEOS urging their voters to vote for the ÖVP-guy.

Would a part of the OVP voters go to Hofer if there was a Hofer/Vdb election?

[Tender Branson]

I wonder how it would play out if VdB and Hofer make the runoff ...

Under normal circumstances, SPÖ/ÖVP/NEOS-voters would mostly come out and vote for VdB over Hofer, but these are no "normal" times.

Could it end like the mayoral election in Hohenems, just on a national level ?

In Hohenems, slightly before Christmas, the ÖVP-candidate lost to the FPÖ-candidate in a stunning upset - despite SPÖ/Greens/NEOS urging their voters to vote for the ÖVP-guy.

Would a part of the OVP voters go to Hofer if there was a Hofer/Vdb election?

Yeah, but the question is: How many ?

[Tender Branson]

New ATV/Hajek poll (n=700):



With Lugner:



Runoff matchups:

39% VdB
27% Hofer

32% VdB
32% Griss

37% VdB
30% Khol

34% VdB
28% Hundstorfer

34% Hundstorfer
29% Khol

34% Griss
32% Hundstorfer

Federal elections poll:



http://atv.at/oesterreichtrend

[Tender Branson]

OGM/Kurier poll on name recognition for presidential candidates and which candidates is best on several personal quality characteristics:

name recognition

95% Rudolf Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
92% Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)
83% Andreas Khol (ÖVP)
38% Irmgard Griss (Indy)
36% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)

personal quality characteristics



From left to right:

* credibility
* experience
* competence/knowledge on issues
* party independence
* proximity to citizens (like in "understanding/dealing with the needs of the citizens")
* Refugee/migrant policy

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/kurier-ogm-umfrage-hofburg-wahl-wer-was-mitbringt/179.433.940

[Tender Branson]

Gallup: Merkel and Faymann get the worst ratings from Austrian voters for dealing with the asylum situation. Foreign and Integration Minister Sebastian Kurz and the new defense Minister Doskozil are getting the best numbers.



The same poll shows no changes for the federal elections compared with their previous poll:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Fluechtlinge-bestimmen-Umfrage/223161227

[DavidB.]

What are the chances of Kurz being the leader of the ÖVP in the next election?

[Tender Branson]

What are the chances of Kurz being the leader of the ÖVP in the next election?

It really depends on what Kurz's popularity is like in early 2018, or what Mitterlehner's numbers are like. There's a loooong way to go.

[Omega21]

What are the chances of Kurz being the leader of the ÖVP in the next election?

It really depends on what Kurz's popularity is like in early 2018, or what Mitterlehner's numbers are like. There's a loooong way to go.

And what are the chances of FPO staying 30+% to 2018, as I dont think the Refugee crysis will end by then?

[DavidB.]

The election can be in October 2018. Hard to predict what will happen in the meantime.

[Omega21]

The election can be in October 2018. Hard to predict what will happen in the meantime.

I think that FPO will still be at least at 28+%, but that's just a wild guess, as I presume this year Europe will get more refugees, compared to last year.

I would like to see this scenario at least, keeps SPO on their toes and doen't let them be that generous to migrants anymore.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Bub-vergewaltigt-Hofer-will-Iraker-ausweisen/223083158

Hofer Presidential boost activated..

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, the whole Chemtrails-thing from Hofer is just smoke.

He doesn't actually believe in Chemtrails (like previous media reports suggested), he only brought that issue up in parliament because concerned people emailed the FPÖ about it and Hofer wrote an inquiry to the concerned ministries for clarification.

In an interview today, Hofer said:

"I'm no conspiracy theorist. I'm a trained aviation and airplane engine technician and trust me: I know a lot about airplane engines. There are no chemtrails in Austria."

http://derstandard.at/2000030644191-1528/Hofburg-Kandidat-Norbert-Hofer-Faymann-ist-kein-Staatsfreund

[Tender Branson]

Ughhh, he's in:

Richard Lugner to run for Austrian President (again)

The 83-year-old construction entrepreneur, millionaire and society figure Richard 'Mortar' Lugner says he is running for president of Austria. He wants to hold the highest office along with his 26-year-old German wife Cathy, a former Playboy Bunny at the Playboy Club in Cologne. For an official nomination Lugner needs to collect 6,000 signatures.

Richard "Mörtel" Lugner (born 11 October 1932) had already run in 1998 for the post of head of state and received nearly 10 percent of the vote. He ended up as the fourth out of five candidates.

For the 2016 presidential election Lugner was thinking of participating again. In late January Lugner had himself promoted in a video for the highest office of the state.

Born in Vienna, Lugner got a licence to work as a building contractor (Baumeisterkonzession) in 1962 and at first specialized in the erection of filling stations and the renovation of old buildings.

His company started to prosper, and he eventually became known to a wider public with the completion, in 1979, of Vienna's first mosque, situated on the banks of the river Danube.

In 1990 he opened his own shopping mall, Lugner City, in a working class district of Vienna and, from the start, aggressively advertised his business by regularly inviting celebrities—starting with Thomas Gottschalk—who would perform there and sign autographs—a marketing strategy not very common in a city that, back then, hardly had any shopping malls.

(story continues)

https://www.friedlnews.com/article/richard-lugner-to-run-for-austrian-president

...

Apparently, his decision came after commissioning a private poll from the Humaninstitut which showed him at 10%. Humaninstitut is a terrible pollster though.

[tpfkaw]

Apparently, the whole Chemtrails-thing from Hofer is just smoke.

He doesn't actually believe in Chemtrails (like previous media reports suggested), he only brought that issue up in parliament because concerned people emailed the FPÖ about it and Hofer wrote an inquiry to the concerned ministries for clarification.

In an interview today, Hofer said:

"I'm no conspiracy theorist. I'm a trained aviation and airplane engine technician and trust me: I know a lot about airplane engines. There are no chemtrails in Austria."

http://derstandard.at/2000030644191-1528/Hofburg-Kandidat-Norbert-Hofer-Faymann-ist-kein-Staatsfreund

I guess the lizard people got to him.

[Tender Branson]

OGM has a new poll about the favorable ratings of Presidential candidates. Richard Lugner (who is a mix of Austria's Trump/Berlusconi even has similar ratings as Trump in the US):



It's unclear though if Lugner, Awadalla and Marschall will be able to collect the 6.000 signatures to be on the ballot.

http://www.ogm.at/2016/02/apaogm-vertrauensindex-bundesraesiodentschafts-kandidatinnen-februar-2016

[Tender Branson]

The Team Stronach decided to sit out the presidential election and presented no candidate.

http://orf.at/stories/2324353

In other news, 55% of Austrians support the use of weapons/guns as a last resort to keep (some of) the (illegal) migrants streaming over the Austrian border out.

This is a strange result, because not even the FPÖ's presidential candidate Hofer supports the use of weapons against migrants. Nonetheless, 80% of FPÖ-voters, 60% of ÖVP-voters and 45% of SPÖ-voters support the use of force as a last resort. 86% of Green-voters are opposed.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/grenzschutz-einsatz-waffen-6230832

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP now wants a "pledge of allegiance" for Austrian school children starting at primary school, to promote integration.



The text is like this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"I pledge allegiance to the Republic of Austria and its constitution und to respect the Austrian laws and basic rules - to uphold our freedom and peaceful living together ! Men and Women are equal in Austria and each human being has the right to live his/her own life in a self-determined way."

http://derstandard.at/2000031033653/Bluemel-fuer-Werteformel-an-Schulen

[aross]

The ÖVP now wants a "pledge of allegiance" for Austrian school children starting at primary school, to promote integration.

Well, no they don't. The leader of the ÖVP in Vienna, who, even by that provincial section's standards, is an irrelevant no-namer, has announced his support for it in yet another desperate plea for attention. Shifting right is probably still the best option for the Vienna ÖVP (the voters lost to the Greens and the NEOS just aren't coming back, not to a party viewed as so toxic and pathetic and backward-looking as the Vienna ÖVP is), but I doubt it will stop their permanent decline.

[Omega21]

The ÖVP now wants a "pledge of allegiance" for Austrian school children starting at primary school, to promote integration.

Well, no they don't. The leader of the ÖVP in Vienna, who, even by that provincial section's standards, is an irrelevant no-namer, has announced his support for it in yet another desperate plea for attention. Shifting right is probably still the best option for the Vienna ÖVP (the voters lost to the Greens and the NEOS just aren't coming back, not to a party viewed as so toxic and pathetic and backward-looking as the Vienna ÖVP is), but I doubt it will stop their permanent decline.

I don't get it, by this you are saying Greens are better than the OVP?

[DavidB.]

The ÖVP now wants a "pledge of allegiance" for Austrian school children starting at primary school, to promote integration.

Well, no they don't. The leader of the ÖVP in Vienna, who, even by that provincial section's standards, is an irrelevant no-namer, has announced his support for it in yet another desperate plea for attention. Shifting right is probably still the best option for the Vienna ÖVP (the voters lost to the Greens and the NEOS just aren't coming back, not to a party viewed as so toxic and pathetic and backward-looking as the Vienna ÖVP is), but I doubt it will stop their permanent decline.

I don't get it, by this you are saying Greens are better than the OVP?

No, he's saying that this isn't an official ÖVP view, it is just the opinion of someone in Vienna's ÖVP. He's also saying that the Vienna ÖVP lost voters to the Greens.

[Omega21]

The ÖVP now wants a "pledge of allegiance" for Austrian school children starting at primary school, to promote integration.

Well, no they don't. The leader of the ÖVP in Vienna, who, even by that provincial section's standards, is an irrelevant no-namer, has announced his support for it in yet another desperate plea for attention. Shifting right is probably still the best option for the Vienna ÖVP (the voters lost to the Greens and the NEOS just aren't coming back, not to a party viewed as so toxic and pathetic and backward-looking as the Vienna ÖVP is), but I doubt it will stop their permanent decline.

I don't get it, by this you are saying Greens are better than the OVP?

No, he's saying that this isn't an official ÖVP view, it is just the opinion of someone in Vienna's ÖVP. He's also saying that the Vienna ÖVP lost voters to the Greens.

Ah ok, thanks.. Didn't get what he was saying.

[Tender Branson]

Signature collection for presidential candidates starts next week and lasts around 1 month.

6.000 signatures are needed Austria-wide to be on the ballot. Unlike in parliamentary elections, there's no state quota for signatures.

Major party candidates who will have no problems collecting the signatures:

* Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
* Khol (ÖVP)
* Hofer (FPÖ)
* Van der Bellen (Greens)

Major candidates who will have problems collecting them, but will likely manage to be on the ballot:

* Griss (Indy)
* Lugner (Indy)

Minor candidates who are mentioned by the media, but who likely won't be on the ballot:

* Marschall (EU-Exit Party)
* Awadalla (Indy)

[Zanas]

Signature collection for presidential candidates starts next week and lasts around 1 month.

6.000 signatures are needed Austria-wide to be on the ballot. Unlike in parliamentary elections, there's no state quota for signatures.

Major party candidates who will have no problems collecting the signatures:

* Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
* Khol (ÖVP)
* Hofer (FPÖ)
* Van der Bellen (Greens)

Major candidates who will have problems collecting them, but will likely manage to be on the ballot:

* Griss (Indy)
* Lugner (Indy)

Minor candidates who are mentioned by the media, but who likely won't be on the ballot:

* Marschall (EU-Exit Party)
* Awadalla (Indy)

Are 6,000 signatures of citizens really that hard to gather, though ? In France you have to gather 500 signatures of elected officials, and we still get a dozen fukcing candidates each time !

[Tender Branson]

Are 6,000 signatures of citizens really that hard to gather, though ? In France you have to gather 500 signatures of elected officials, and we still get a dozen fukcing candidates each time !

Yes, 6.000 signatures is a big hurdle - because you cannot simply collect the signatures on the street from citizens, like in the US for example.

Here, you have to convince an eligible voter to go to the municipal office where this person lives and sign the petition for a candidate in front of the municipal clerk who will then officially stamp it and send it to the campaign headquarters.

If you are an independent low-key candidate without financial resources, you will have to invest a lot of time to convince certain people in say Vienna to go to the office and sign for you. And Vienna is full of tourists, foreigners who cannot vote etc. etc.

Besides, most eligible voters are at work during day time, when the municipal offices are open for signing the petitions - which makes it even harder.

People with a party machine behind them have a much easier time.

[Tender Branson]

The latest Profil magazine poll from Unique Research:

32% FPÖ
24% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
12% Greens
  8% NEOS
  1% Others

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-fpoe-prozentpunkte-regierungsparteien-6240042

[Omega21]

The latest Profil magazine poll from Unique Research:

32% FPÖ
24% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
12% Greens
  8% NEOS
  1% Others

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-fpoe-prozentpunkte-regierungsparteien-6240042

If elections were tomorrow, would you expect a real result like this or is the FPO just pumped up in polls..