Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

Who will young Austrian voters (aged 16-29) vote for on Sunday ?

500 young Austrians were polled in the first half of April by the Austrian Institute of Youth Culture Research:

42% Van der Bellen (Greens)
20% Hofer (FPÖ)
12% Griss (Indy)
11% Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
10% Khol (ÖVP)
  4% Lugner (Indy)

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/analyse-junge-maenner-wahl-bundespraesident-6322799

[Omega21]

Who will young Austrian voters (aged 16-29) vote for on Sunday ?

500 young Austrians were polled in the first half of April by the Austrian Institute of Youth Culture Research:

42% Van der Bellen (Greens)
20% Hofer (FPÖ)
12% Griss (Indy)
11% Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
10% Khol (ÖVP)
  4% Lugner (Indy)

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/analyse-junge-maenner-wahl-bundespraesident-6322799

Shocked by this, sad that such a nice Culture is being exterminated by it's youth, as I think 60% of  these Vdb voters are one of those "FPO Raus, Fluchtlinge willkommen" type of people or in other words "Yeah we can do 100 k Refugees a year, 900 Euro a month/each."



Can't wait fot the elections, in your opinion is the final 6 candidate Debate going to have some influence on the elections?

[Tender Branson]

Can't wait for the elections, in your opinion is the final 6 candidate debate going to have some influence on the elections?

Only to some extent: While the debate will be watched by 1-1.5 million people (every 4th to 6th voter), there are now only 20% of people left who are undecided.

If anything, the bad weather on Sunday could increase turnout to 75% - which would be good news for Hofer, Griss and Hundstorfer. FPÖ and SPÖ benefit most from higher turnout and Griss by getting previously undecided non-voters to the polls (I think the Gallup poll showed that Griss led with 40%+ among undecideds).

[Tender Branson]

Reuters article:

Austrian presidential polls to rattle centrists

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-election-president-idUSKCN0XG0RR

[Hatman 🍁]

I've been asked to make a prediction for an election I know nothing about as a condition of Tender making a prediction for the Manitoba election. So here goes:

First round:
Hofer: 24%
Van der Bellen: 23%
Griss: 23%
Hundstorfer: 14%
Khol: 11%
Lugner: 3%

Second round:
Van der Bellen: 57%
Hofer: 43%

[Tender Branson]

New meinungsraum.at poll shows a really tight race for the 2 runoff slots:

(the right chart is the important poll, without undecideds etc.)



http://meinungsraum.at/2016/04/bundespraesidenten-wahl-die-kandidaten-im-emotions-check

[Cranberry]

Alright, my (probably crappy) prediction for Sunday:

Chainsmoker - 23%
Smiling Nazi - 23%
Wallflower - 21%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 12%
Clown - 5%

Run-off predictions come only when it's clear who will be in it.

[Omega21]

Alright, my (probably crappy) prediction for Sunday:

Chainsmoker - 23%
Smiling Nazi - 23%
Wallflower - 21%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 12%
Clown - 5%

Run-off predictions come only when it's clear who will be in it.

Smiling Nazi - 24%
Anti Democrat - 22%[/b]
Wallflower - 19%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 15%
Clown - 4%

[Cranberry]

Alright, my (probably crappy) prediction for Sunday:

Chainsmoker - 23%
Smiling Nazi - 23%
Wallflower - 21%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 12%
Clown - 5%

Run-off predictions come only when it's clear who will be in it.

Smiling Nazi - 24%
Great guy I'd definitely vote for!  - 22%
Wallflower - 19%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 15%
Clown - 4%

If you are going to empty-quote me, try to do it a little less passive-aggressive next time, dankeschön.

[Tender Branson]

Guys, what exactly is the official prediction thread for that I created, when you post all your predictions in here ?

[Tender Branson]

After Vienna and Salzburg, the city of Innsbruck has relatively high absentee ballot requests as well so far, which is comparable with the high federal election 2013 requests.

We'll know on Saturday how many postal ballots were requested in the country.

[MaxQue]

Alright, my (probably crappy) prediction for Sunday:

Chainsmoker - 23%
Smiling Nazi - 23%
Wallflower - 21%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 12%
Clown - 5%

Run-off predictions come only when it's clear who will be in it.

Smiling Nazi - 24%
Great guy I'd definitely vote for!  - 22%
Wallflower - 19%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 15%
Clown - 4%

If you are going to empty-quote me, try to do it a little less passive-aggressive next time, dankeschön.

Just do as most people, ignore Bigot21.

[Omega21]

Alright, my (probably crappy) prediction for Sunday:

Chainsmoker - 23%
Smiling Nazi - 23%
Wallflower - 21%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 12%
Clown - 5%

Run-off predictions come only when it's clear who will be in it.

Smiling Nazi - 24%
Great guy I'd definitely vote for!  - 22%
Wallflower - 19%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 15%
Clown - 4%

If you are going to empty-quote me, try to do it a little less passive-aggressive next time, dankeschön.

Just do as most people, ignore Bigot21.

Is not swearing in a majority goverment because of a personal grudge towards a party not anti democratic?

[MaxQue]

Alright, my (probably crappy) prediction for Sunday:

Chainsmoker - 23%
Smiling Nazi - 23%
Wallflower - 21%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 12%
Clown - 5%

Run-off predictions come only when it's clear who will be in it.

Smiling Nazi - 24%
Great guy I'd definitely vote for!  - 22%
Wallflower - 19%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 15%
Clown - 4%

If you are going to empty-quote me, try to do it a little less passive-aggressive next time, dankeschön.

Just do as most people, ignore Bigot21.

Is not swearing in a majority goverment because of a personal grudge towards a party not anti democratic?

If he was elected by being honest about that, no.

[Omega21]

Alright, my (probably crappy) prediction for Sunday:

Chainsmoker - 23%
Smiling Nazi - 23%
Wallflower - 21%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 12%
Clown - 5%

Run-off predictions come only when it's clear who will be in it.

Smiling Nazi - 24%
Great guy I'd definitely vote for!  - 22%
Wallflower - 19%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 15%
Clown - 4%

If you are going to empty-quote me, try to do it a little less passive-aggressive next time, dankeschön.

Just do as most people, ignore Bigot21.

Is not swearing in a majority goverment because of a personal grudge towards a party not anti democratic?

If he was elected by being honest about that, no.

Then you are not democratic, the president must accept the decision of the people, the majority must rule, no matter how much he hates the Fpo and how much he wants an Eu superstate..

[MaxQue]

Alright, my (probably crappy) prediction for Sunday:

Chainsmoker - 23%
Smiling Nazi - 23%
Wallflower - 21%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 12%
Clown - 5%

Run-off predictions come only when it's clear who will be in it.

Smiling Nazi - 24%
Great guy I'd definitely vote for!  - 22%
Wallflower - 19%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 15%
Clown - 4%

If you are going to empty-quote me, try to do it a little less passive-aggressive next time, dankeschön.

Just do as most people, ignore Bigot21.

Is not swearing in a majority goverment because of a personal grudge towards a party not anti democratic?

If he was elected by being honest about that, no.

Then you are not democratic, the president must accept the decision of the people, the majority must rule, no matter how much he hates the Fpo and how much he wants an Eu superstate..

If he is elected, it means the majority of him too.

Should Obama do anything Republicans want, after all, they got a majority?

[Cranberry]

Alright, my (probably crappy) prediction for Sunday:

Chainsmoker - 23%
Smiling Nazi - 23%
Wallflower - 21%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 12%
Clown - 5%

Run-off predictions come only when it's clear who will be in it.

Smiling Nazi - 24%
Great guy I'd definitely vote for!  - 22%
Wallflower - 19%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 15%
Clown - 4%

If you are going to empty-quote me, try to do it a little less passive-aggressive next time, dankeschön.

Just do as most people, ignore Bigot21.

Is not swearing in a majority goverment because of a personal grudge towards a party not anti democratic?

A) The FPÖ is never getting elected to a majority government of their own. Not going to happen, honey, so no point in discussing a hypothetical with a .0% chance of happening.
B) If the FPÖ in '18 ends up with, say, 35% and they wanted to form government, there would still be 75% of the population NOT voting for those literal Nazis. In contrast, Van der Bellen would, in the eventually of being elected president, have an absolute majority of 50% of the population behind him.

So maybe next time, if you have no clue about stuff, shut the f up.

[MaxQue]

Alright, my (probably crappy) prediction for Sunday:

Chainsmoker - 23%
Smiling Nazi - 23%
Wallflower - 21%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 12%
Clown - 5%

Run-off predictions come only when it's clear who will be in it.

Smiling Nazi - 24%
Great guy I'd definitely vote for!  - 22%
Wallflower - 19%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 15%
Clown - 4%

If you are going to empty-quote me, try to do it a little less passive-aggressive next time, dankeschön.

Just do as most people, ignore Bigot21.

Is not swearing in a majority goverment because of a personal grudge towards a party not anti democratic?

A) The FPÖ is never getting elected to a majority government of their own. Not going to happen, honey, so no point in discussing a hypothetical with a .0% chance of happening.
B) If the FPÖ in '18 ends up with, say, 35% and they wanted to form government, there would still be 75% of the population NOT voting for those literal Nazis. In contrast, Van der Bellen would, in the eventually of being elected president, have an absolute majority of 50% of the population behind him.

So maybe next time, if you have no clue about stuff, shut the f up.

Omega21 mode on

But they are not Nazis, they just want to get rid of heretic Mohamedians and Jesus-killers.

[Omega21]

Alright, my (probably crappy) prediction for Sunday:

Chainsmoker - 23%
Smiling Nazi - 23%
Wallflower - 21%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 12%
Clown - 5%

Run-off predictions come only when it's clear who will be in it.

Smiling Nazi - 24%
Great guy I'd definitely vote for!  - 22%
Wallflower - 19%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 15%
Clown - 4%

If you are going to empty-quote me, try to do it a little less passive-aggressive next time, dankeschön.

Just do as most people, ignore Bigot21.

Is not swearing in a majority goverment because of a personal grudge towards a party not anti democratic?

A) The FPÖ is never getting elected to a majority government of their own. Not going to happen, honey, so no point in discussing a hypothetical with a .0% chance of happening.
B) If the FPÖ in '18 ends up with, say, 35% and they wanted to form government, there would still be 75% of the population NOT voting for those literal Nazis. In contrast, Van der Bellen would, in the eventually of being elected president, have an absolute majority of 50% of the population behind him.

So maybe next time, if you have no clue about stuff, shut the f up.

You are a big smartass considering you dont knoe how to subtract two numbers, 100-35=65 my boy..

Also if Ovp got 25,Fpo 35% that means 60% of Voters support that goverment, Vdb could get 55 but not above 60, so he would be going against the 60% of Voters that support that Goverment.

[Tender Branson]

641.975 postal ballots have been requested Austria-wide.

That is much more than the 500.000 expected by the media, but slightly less than what was requested for the 2013 federal election (668.810).

Still, this would point to an overall turnout of ~70%, maybe even a bit higher.

The 75% for the 2013 federal election are unlikely to be achieved though.

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/bundespraes/bpw_2016/FILES/Ausgestellte_Wahlkarten_BPW16_1WG.pdf

If the race is close on Sunday, we'll have to wait until Monday afternoon/night for the final result.

In Austria, postal ballots are always counted on the Monday after the election.

[Tender Branson]

Official results page for Sunday:

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at

(as a comparison, the 2013 federal elections page: http://wahl13.bmi.gv.at)

Polls are open until 5pm local time.

There will be a 1st projection on the ORF right at 5pm and vote counting will take ca. 2-3 hours.

[Tender Branson]

A reminder about the postal ballots:

Postal ballots have about a 85% return rate, which means about 550.000 will be counted on Monday.

History shows that postal ballots skew heavily Green and to some extent ÖVP. The FPÖ always loses ~1% overall when the postal ballots are added. The SPÖ remains unchanged.

Griss and Lugner as Independents complicate this trend somewhat, but I guess VdB is still expected to gain ground with absentees, while Hofer & Lugner should lose ground. Hundstorfer and Khol should remain mostly unchanged. Griss will likely remain stable as well.

So, if the results on Sunday evening are:

24% Hofer
23% Griss
22% VdB

... then we definitely only know Monday night who will be in the runoff.

[Tender Branson]

The new Profil magazine poll has good indicators for a possible Hofer (FPÖ) win tomorrow:

68% of Austrians want a President who's more active than outgoing President Heinz Fischer, by getting more involved in daily political issues. 31% are opposed.

Also, only 45% say it's important that the next President is from a government party (SPÖ, ÖVP), while 54% say it's not important.

Hofer has promised to be a much more active President.

Also, the poll finds that Austrians think Hofer has "surprised the most in a postive way" during the campaign:

28% positive, 14% negative (+14) -> Hofer (FPÖ)
16% positive, 18% negative (-2) -> Van der Bellen (Greens)

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-norbert-hofer-positiv-wahlkampf-6330126

...

We'll see if these indicators indeed mean a Hofer victory tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

The final campaign event from Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) in Vienna had by far the biggest crowd of all candidates (about 6.000-8.000 people). All other candidates had less than 1.000 people --- but is crowd size an indicator of electoral success ?

[Tender Branson]

The latest talk is that turnout might hit 75% tomorrow, because of the crappy weather and closeness of the race.

The weather forecast says rain/snowfall in the West and clouds/wind with light rain in the East and South. Temps no higher than 5-10°C. This is perfect voting weather because people cannot do anything else outside.