Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Presidential runoff on May 22 ?
#1
Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
#2
Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)
#3
I'd invalidate the ballot
#4
I'd stay home
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results


Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)  (Read 285618 times)
Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #475 on: April 24, 2016, 12:53:50 PM »

Who are NEOS folks voting for?
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Cranberry
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« Reply #476 on: April 24, 2016, 12:55:13 PM »


Van der Bellen and Griss, mostly.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #477 on: April 24, 2016, 12:55:43 PM »

As bad as this result is, I'm even more depressed that it is driven by younger people.  At least in the US, the far-right anti-immigrant sentiment is coming mainly from olds.

Young men, that is. Young women seem to be a lot more reasonable.

I guess this is general European trend, in Poland it was also the case that especially young people tend to vote on petite-bourgeoisie, anti-immigration right. If voting age in Poland would be 16, Korwin would be in the Sejm.

If so then Hofer has a good 50/50 shot if not better at winning based on this poll.  My sense is that he should be the underdog.  Him coming in so strong on the first round will most likely scare passive center-left voters to come out in the second round to vote in large numbers.

From what I've seen on social media, exactly the opposite seems to be the case, i.e. it's mainly resignation and disappointment at the result.

All depends on the campaign but I guess for many Van Der Bellen is also not great alternative.
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jaichind
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« Reply #478 on: April 24, 2016, 01:06:41 PM »

Looks like SPÖ and ÖVP came in at a near tie with both at 11.18%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #479 on: April 24, 2016, 01:12:41 PM »

As bad as this result is, I'm even more depressed that it is driven by younger people.  At least in the US, the far-right anti-immigrant sentiment is coming mainly from olds.

Young men, that is. Young women seem to be a lot more reasonable.

I'm part of the 4% of young men who voted for Griss ... Tongue
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jaichind
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« Reply #480 on: April 24, 2016, 01:17:56 PM »

I also don't understand how the polls were so bad ...

It seems the polls were always fishy.   If FPÖ as a party is polling in the low 30s I do not see why Hofer  would poll in the low to mid 20s.  None of the other candidates seemed that they would be effective at attracting the FPÖ voter.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #481 on: April 24, 2016, 01:21:27 PM »

The new landscape:





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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #482 on: April 24, 2016, 01:23:41 PM »

lolaustria
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #483 on: April 24, 2016, 01:29:36 PM »

One statistical fact that tells you pretty much everything about how low SPÖ and ÖVP have fallen today:

Of 2.100 cities in Austria, Hundstorfer managed to get 50%+ in a single city. Khol had 50%+ in two.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #484 on: April 24, 2016, 01:44:00 PM »

Clearly, unlike Germany, denazification failed.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #485 on: April 24, 2016, 01:51:36 PM »

Clearly, unlike Germany, denazification failed.


lol
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MaxQue
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« Reply #486 on: April 24, 2016, 01:54:26 PM »


What? They are about to elect an open antisemite.

And denazification fails here too. You're still here. Being annexed 70 years ago wasn't enough for you?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #487 on: April 24, 2016, 01:56:37 PM »

Clearly, unlike Germany, denazification failed.

Much like it failed in France, Switzerland, Netherlands, Denmark, Poland etc. - right ?

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lections_r%C3%A9gionales_fran%C3%A7aises_de_2015#Provence-Alpes-C.C3.B4te_d.27Azur

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lections_r%C3%A9gionales_fran%C3%A7aises_de_2015#Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #488 on: April 24, 2016, 01:58:44 PM »

They are about to elect an open antisemite.

Hmm. According to my knowledge and anything ever mentioned in the news, Hofer has never said anything antisemitic.

You probably think of Strache, who has once ordered "3 beer" and posted an antisemitic cartoon on his Facebook page.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #489 on: April 24, 2016, 01:58:57 PM »

Well the Allied Denazification programme was not notably successful anywhere. The difference between German (both) and Austrian societies as regards their relationship to recent history is something that emerged in the decades that followed...
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #490 on: April 24, 2016, 02:00:24 PM »


What? They are about to elect an open antisemite.

And denazification fails here too. You're still here. Being annexed 70 years ago wasn't enough for you?



I am not 70+ years old dummy and I am not state so I would be hard for me to be annexed. Similarly most of the voters in Austria. And even them are voting mainly more on SPD or OVP than younger voters. I can't see any link between modern times and denazification. FPO success much more have roots in different aspects than Nazi past of Austria.
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jaichind
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« Reply #491 on: April 24, 2016, 02:01:41 PM »

Clearly, unlike Germany, denazification failed.

No idea why you would say this.  Hofer position on immigration, if that were the only issue in an election, would get 90%+ of the vote in places like Taiwan Province (ROC), where I am from, Japan and ROK.  
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MaxQue
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« Reply #492 on: April 24, 2016, 02:02:50 PM »


Denmark and Netherlands far-right is not linked to nazism, nor has dabbled in anti-semitism. Quite the opposite for Denmark.
Switzerland never has been invaded by Germany.
France is different, the population currently voting FN most likely weren't collaborators, nor their descendance.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #493 on: April 24, 2016, 02:05:15 PM »

Clearly, unlike Germany, denazification failed.

No idea why you would say this.  Hofer position on immigration, if that were the only issue in an election, would get 90%+ of the vote in places like Taiwan Province (ROC), where I am from, Japan and ROK.  

Well, let's be honest, those countries are not known for being welcoming or anything. They are very bigoted towards anything not being exactly like them.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #494 on: April 24, 2016, 02:09:38 PM »

I don't think de-Nazification plays a big role in the difference between how Germany and Austria and other European countries vote with regards to the Far-Right.

It's more the fact that Germany is much more urban than Austria and urban areas tend to be more left-wing. In Germany, 80% of the people are living in cities and urban areas, but in Austria only like 30% of the population lives in cities with more than 25.000 people.

The same pattern in rural Eastern France.

So it's more like Austria = West Virginia electionwise, while Germany = Virginia.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #495 on: April 24, 2016, 02:15:14 PM »

The same pattern in rural Eastern France.

Rural Eastern France isn't the strongest area for the far-right anymore.

It's the former mining/manufacturing areas of the North and the seaside cities where the Pieds-Noirs (the white people having to flee Algeria after independence) were settled.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #496 on: April 24, 2016, 02:17:10 PM »

The same pattern in rural Eastern France.

Rural Eastern France isn't the strongest area for the far-right anymore.

It's the former mining/manufacturing areas of the North and the seaside cities where the Pieds-Noirs (the white people having to flee Algeria after independence) were settled.

Yeah, you say it. So it's more a class/rural decay thing rather than a Nazi-related thing ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #497 on: April 24, 2016, 02:27:03 PM »

The chart below from the SORA/ORF election day analysis is terrible news for VdB's runoff chances:

"Do you approve or disapprove of SPÖVP's government work ?"

67-32     approve - Hundstorfer voters
47-49 disapprove - Khol voters
41-59 disapprove - VdB voters
30-70 disapprove - Griss voters
12-88 disapprove - Hofer voters

That means a good chunk of the Griss/SPÖ/ÖVP/Lugner voters disapprove of the government's job and Hofer only needs another 14-15% of them in the runoff to get to 50% ...

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rob in cal
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« Reply #498 on: April 24, 2016, 02:28:50 PM »

   Did Khol try to take credit for the OVP's role in putting in the migrant/refugee quota which might have had a ripple effect in slowing down, for now any way, the wave of migrants coming through the Balkans?  One would think that would have been a positive campaign message toward a lot of the electorate.  If VDB still ends up winning (remember what happened in France last year), I wonder if it would be the biggest comeback margin in a European Presidential election ever.
   Seems a lot of the electorate is basically saying that they want the cultural, demographic, ethnic, religious makeup of Austria's future to be similar to what it is today and for it not to be changed significantly.  
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #499 on: April 24, 2016, 02:33:20 PM »

Or in other words:

Of the 43% who voted Griss/Hundstorfer/Khol and Lugner today, 56% disapprove of the government job.

But Hofer just needs 35% of this pool of 43% to get to 50%+ in the runoff ...
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