Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Presidential runoff on May 22 ?
#1
Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
#2
Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)
#3
I'd invalidate the ballot
#4
I'd stay home
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results


Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)  (Read 285612 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #525 on: April 25, 2016, 02:10:52 PM »

The Offensive gegen Rechts ("Offensive against the Right") will organize a huge protest rally against Hofer on May 19 at the Heldenplatz ("Heroes' Square") in Vienna.

...

They did the same thing one week ahead of the Vienna state election last year. In this election, pollsters predicted that SPÖ and FPÖ were neck and neck, but on election day turnout surged to 75% and the SPÖ won 40% to 31%.

An event like this, if it involves the broader center-left and cultural elite - could definitely lead to some extra-boost for Van der Bellen in the final days.
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Omega21
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« Reply #526 on: April 26, 2016, 06:31:19 AM »

Why is the left more extreme than the right? At least the youth..
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rob in cal
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« Reply #527 on: April 26, 2016, 11:02:56 AM »

   I wonder if the reason Hofer did so well among young men is the fact that such a huge percentage of the migrants are young men as well.  Austrian younger men could view them as a double threat, first off in the job market, second off in the marriage/relationship market, as potential rivals for both jobs and women.  If the majority of migrants coming to Austria were young attractive Ukrainian women fleeing conflict there, or Thai cocktail hostesses fleeing Moslem extremists, or Brazilian supermodels fleeing the Zika virus, perhaps we wouldn't have such a support spike for Hofer among this electorate.
   While Hofer won over 50%, I bet among working class young men he did even better.  Perhaps a campaign slogan for him in the runoff could be "Young Austrian men, with Hofer you stand a better chance of getting paid and getting laid".
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jaichind
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« Reply #528 on: April 26, 2016, 11:04:22 AM »

   I wonder if the reason Hofer did so well among young men is the fact that such a huge percentage of the migrants are young men as well.  Austrian younger men could view them as a double threat, first off in the job market, second off in the marriage/relationship market, as potential rivals for both jobs and women.  If the majority of migrants coming to Austria were young attractive Ukrainian women fleeing conflict there, or Thai cocktail hostesses fleeing Moslem extremists, or Brazilian supermodels fleeing the Zika virus, perhaps we wouldn't have such a support spike for Hofer among this electorate.
   While Hofer won over 50%, I bet among working class young men he did even better.  Perhaps a campaign slogan for him in the runoff could be "Young Austrian men, with Hofer you stand a better chance of getting paid and getting laid".

Could also be that  Hofer  himself is easily the youngest of all the candidates.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #529 on: April 26, 2016, 11:10:50 AM »

I have now added a runoff poll on top, in which you can pick between Hofer (FPÖ) and VdB (Greens).

I'll vote for Van der Bellen.

---

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #530 on: April 26, 2016, 11:31:55 AM »

Van der Bellen (Greens) out with his first runoff campaign posters:



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rob in cal
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« Reply #531 on: April 26, 2016, 11:53:16 AM »

   Tender, has Hofer stated his exact policy ideas for how Austria should be dealing with the migrant crisis?  Does he think some should be allowed to stay, or is he fully in the Orban camp of a zero migrant target?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #532 on: April 26, 2016, 11:53:36 AM »

The only real attack line against Hofer (who's not an anti-semite as some on here would think) is the fact that he's a member of a right-wing student fraternity - which does not see Austria as a nation itself. This fraternity thinks Austria is part of a large German state.



Norbert Hofer at a fraternity ball, clearly wearing an "Austrian" badge ... Wink

But even when attacked (by Hundstorfer in the ORF debates) it led to nothing. Hofer simply neutralized his attacks by saying that he clearly thinks that Austria is a nation on its own and that he disagrees with the fraternity on this point. We know how it ended on election day.

Other than that, Hofer is a proponent of a healthcare exchange exclusively for foreigners and foreign workers, which should fund itself with the social security payments of foreigners and no taxpayer money of Austrian citizens. Hofer also thinks the Labour Market Agency should only pay benefits to Austrian citizens, while foreigners need to be shut out of the system and self-fund them (or leave the country).

While some on the left find this extreme, this is actually an issue which is pretty popular or mainstream with many (if not a majority of Austrian voters).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #533 on: April 26, 2016, 11:56:05 AM »

   Tender, has Hofer stated his exact policy ideas for how Austria should be dealing with the migrant crisis?  Does he think some should be allowed to stay, or is he fully in the Orban camp of a zero migrant target?

Pretty much in line with Strache, who said: "Yes, there needs to be an upper cap: zero !"

Plus border fences, police and military at the border to screen the green border for illegals and stop lorries with potential illegals at the border crossings along the highways."
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aross
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« Reply #534 on: April 26, 2016, 12:28:28 PM »

Pretty much in line with Strache, who said: "Yes, there needs to be an upper cap: zero !"

Plus border fences, police and military at the border to screen the green border for illegals and stop lorries with potential illegals at the border crossings along the highways."

Yes, but the point is he would never put it like that. The FPÖ has discovered the wonders of dédiabolisation. Hofer also has an impressive ability to sound perfectly reasonable, even when he isn't actually being reasonable. (As some have pointed out, he has also received extensive rhetorical training, including NLP)

Thought a bit about the polling failure, which brought me back to this:

Gallup/Österreich poll:
33% FPÖ (-1)
23% ÖVP (+1)
22% SPÖ (0)
11% Greens (0)
7% NEOS (0)
4% Others (0)

Compared to here
First poll after all 5 major candidates have announced for President (Gallup, conducted yesterday):
you can clearly see the massive differences between the presidential contest and party standings. On Thursday, Gallup had the combined left candidates on 50%, whereas the leftist parties' support is only 33% (40% with the highly dubious inclusion of NEOS). So basically, at least at present, large amounts of conservatives (and almost all NEOS supporters, though a few might go for Griss) are planning to vote for VdB.

This turned out to be complete bollocks. However, continuing the - admittedly flawed in an Austrian context - logic of blocs, if you look at what the FPÖ is currently polling at nationally - 32, 33% - it really isn't that far from what Hofer got, and could be explained by the unattractiveness of the other candidates combined with higher mobilisation among FPÖ voters. Similarly, the combined left got 33%, compared with ~37% in parliamentary polls. That difference would seem to roughly match the rate of defectors to Griss. And finally, the "bourgeois" or mainstream centre-right got 30% when it is scoring 29% in parliamentary polls. So there is an argument to be made that the pollsters aren't actually doing a bad job with their standard polling, but that they only somehow (the unknown quantities of the various candidates, I suppose) failed to transfer this to their presidential polling.

Finally, this is a good tool for predicting the runoff by estimating transfers.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #535 on: April 26, 2016, 01:56:04 PM »

Finally, this is a good tool for predicting the runoff by estimating transfers.

That's a nice tool.

Looks like Hofer is favoured, according to my simulations.

I always come up with ca. a 52-48 or 51-49 Hofer win. Assuming Hofer and VdB voters vote with 98% for their own candidate again. I assume Griss voters go about 65-35 to VdB. Khol voters ca. 70-30 to Hofer. Hundstorfer voters about 80-20 to VdB. Lugner voters about 90-10 to Hofer.

VdB probably needs to draw a lot of left-leaning non-voters to the polls to win.
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Figueira
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« Reply #536 on: April 26, 2016, 02:20:19 PM »

Why is the left more extreme than the right? At least the youth..

How are you defining "extreme"?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #537 on: April 26, 2016, 02:40:31 PM »

My runoff-simulation:



Turnout: ~70% (highest among Hofer/VdB-voters, lowest among Lugner-voters)
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Omega21
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« Reply #538 on: April 26, 2016, 06:08:06 PM »

Why is the left more extreme than the right? At least the youth..

How are you defining "extreme"?

Mass protests with signs saying "FPO/Nazis Raus", also a lot of times there is also violence between the Right/Left Wing groups..

Why are they calling out the Right if they themselves are violent..

Ofcourse this is the minority but Offensive against the Right seems to me a bit odd, as they can't be the one to decide that Left is better than Right, only the voters can do that, and they mostly did in this Election.

Also in Sweden there are now a lot of problems with the Extreme Left, you can just google it..
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rob in cal
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« Reply #539 on: April 27, 2016, 09:58:52 AM »

   Well, it looks like the other parties are not endorsing. Chancellor Faymann is personally voting for VDB, but no SPO endorsement, and nothing from the OVP.  Also, interesting that the Trade Union Federation won't be endorsing a candidate.  Not sure if they ever do in elections but all this shows that so far there doesn't seem to be a massive anti-Hofer Popular Front type movement developing.  The blue collar elements of the Trade Unions are probably pro-Hofer (members anyway, likely not leadership I'd guess).
   This will be a fascinating socio-economic breakdown in terms of voting, in which the blue collar workforce supports a perceived right-wing candidate, and the higher classes a perceived left-wing, or center left-wing anyway candidate. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #540 on: April 27, 2016, 12:00:56 PM »

  Well, it looks like the other parties are not endorsing. Chancellor Faymann is personally voting for VDB, but no SPO endorsement, and nothing from the OVP.  Also, interesting that the Trade Union Federation won't be endorsing a candidate.  Not sure if they ever do in elections but all this shows that so far there doesn't seem to be a massive anti-Hofer Popular Front type movement developing.  The blue collar elements of the Trade Unions are probably pro-Hofer (members anyway, likely not leadership I'd guess).
   This will be a fascinating socio-economic breakdown in terms of voting, in which the blue collar workforce supports a perceived right-wing candidate, and the higher classes a perceived left-wing, or center left-wing anyway candidate.  

Yeah, there won't be any endorsements. Except the Team Stronach, which has endorsed Hofer.

While nobody important from the ÖVP has made their runoff vote public, Faymann and Häupl (Vienna mayor) and some others have said they'll vote for VdB, as did NEOS-leader Matthias Strolz. Irmgard Griss has said she'll talk with her campaign team, but virtually ruled out any endorsement - saying that she considers her voters politically mature enough to make their own decisions.

As for blue-collar workers: The SPÖ has already lost these voters for a decade now. They are abandoning the former "Labour Party" in droves and Hofer got more than 70% of blue-collar workers in the first round.

The socio-economic breakdown in the runoff will likely be rather similar to what you'd expect in a standard, close SPÖ vs. ÖVP presidential election - just that Hofer now represents the ÖVP candidate and VdB the SPÖ candidate (not to mention that VdB was once even an actual SPÖ-member) ...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #541 on: April 27, 2016, 12:20:42 PM »

Hofer and VdB are currently "debating" each other on the cultural (!!!) radio of the ORF, for one hour.

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God, I love this campaign ...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #542 on: April 27, 2016, 12:49:51 PM »

Meanwhile, the Austrian Parliament passed one of the toughest asylum laws in Europe today.

Several SPÖ MPs defected to the NO side.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36152927
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #543 on: April 28, 2016, 02:45:09 PM »

A map I made which shows the Hofer strength in each district:

The lightest shade of blue is Hofer between 35-40%, then 40-45%, 45-50% and then there's one district in Burgenland (Hofer's home district) which already voted for him with 50%+

The purple districts are all below Hofer's national result of 35%.



Obviously, most districts which already voted for Hofer with 40%+ in the first round will pass 50% in the runoff, with those between 35-40% more uncertain. Even some districts in the Linz area (which should be the swingiest) should end up for Hofer, plus East Tyrol and Hermagor in the South.

Vienna and Vorarlberg might be the only states which I project to vote for VdB, plus some suburbs of Vienna.
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Derpist
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« Reply #544 on: April 28, 2016, 02:49:25 PM »

Hofer and VdB are currently "debating" each other on the cultural (!!!) radio of the ORF, for one hour.

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God, I love this campaign ...

lol.

What I love about Europe today is that the current multinational political institutions are so volatile - that basically every single election matters in a way that reverberates all across the continent. Compare that to Latin America (Roussef's impeachment isn't really impacting Argentina that much).

But imagine if the FPO wins - they call for new elections - the grand coalition falls - and a new government takes a very different tack on refugees. That starts shifting politics in every neighboring country.

This is heaven to journalists and analysts.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #545 on: April 28, 2016, 02:53:22 PM »

A map I made which shows the Hofer strength in each district:

The lightest shade of blue is Hofer between 35-40%, then 40-45%, 45-50% and then there's one district in Burgenland (Hofer's home district) which already voted for him with 50%+

The purple districts are all below Hofer's national result of 35%.



Obviously, most districts which already voted for Hofer with 40%+ in the first round will pass 50% in the runoff, with those between 35-40% more uncertain. Even some districts in the Linz area (which should be the swingiest) should end up for Hofer, plus East Tyrol and Hermagor in the South.

Vienna and Vorarlberg might be the only states which I project to vote for VdB, plus some suburbs of Vienna.

And now let's compare the Hofer results of last Sunday with the federal election of 1930 (combined share of all right-wingers, nazis etc.):



Roughly the same pattern.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #546 on: April 28, 2016, 04:19:01 PM »

   Tender, great maps.  A couple questions.  What accounts for Voralberg and the FPO weakness there?  Also, did the new asylum law passed on Tuesday go a long way toward what the FPO wants?  I saw that they voted against, but am wondering how much of that was for political reasons.  I wonder if the SPO dissidents will be tempted to move to the Greens because of this.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #547 on: April 29, 2016, 12:17:48 AM »

FWIW, Gallup shows a tied race:



Also: 77% say they will definitely vote in the runoff - which would mean higher turnout than the 68.5% in Round 1. First round polls only showed ca. 70% who said they will definitely vote.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Hofer-und-Van-der-Bellen-Kopf-an-Kopf/233661264
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #548 on: April 29, 2016, 12:41:09 AM »

Yesterday evening, Marlene Svazek (23) was elected the new FPÖ-leader of Salzburg state.

She's the youngest state FPÖ-leader so far and also the only woman.



http://salzburg.orf.at/news/stories/2771325
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rob in cal
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« Reply #549 on: April 29, 2016, 12:47:18 AM »

   Hofer is saying he wants to introduce Swiss style direct democracy into Austria.  I would think this would be a positive campaign message to hammer away at VDB with, not that the President could actually implement such a reform of course.  When the US electorate has voted on whether to introduce the right to initiative and referendum into their state constitutions the people have usually voted in favor.
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