Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Presidential runoff on May 22 ?
#1
Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
#2
Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)
#3
I'd invalidate the ballot
#4
I'd stay home
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)  (Read 285617 times)
Flocke
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« Reply #550 on: April 29, 2016, 05:02:56 AM »

Hofer is saying he wants to introduce Swiss style direct democracy into Austria.

That's something FPÖ, Greens, NEOS and Team Stronach agree upon.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #551 on: April 29, 2016, 06:26:39 AM »

Hofer & FPÖ out with their first runoff posters:



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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #552 on: April 29, 2016, 06:32:44 AM »

Irmgard Griss has said she'll talk with her campaign team, but virtually ruled out any endorsement - saying that she considers her voters politically mature enough to make their own decisions.

In an interview yesterday, she was clearer.

While not endorsing anyone, she said:

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http://derstandard.at/2000035981729/Griss-Teile-Werte-von-Van-der-Bellen
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #553 on: April 29, 2016, 02:19:45 PM »

Another German satirical show from the main broadcaster ZDF creates some controvery by showing this:



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Like Erdogan, one Austrian has already sued the ZDF because of it ... Tongue

http://derstandard.at/2000035923715/Anzeige-heute-show-zeigt-Hakenkreuz-Schnitzel-auf-Facebook
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rob in cal
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« Reply #554 on: April 29, 2016, 05:57:09 PM »

   Ok, another what if Austria question.  If current Nationalrat polls are roughly correct and the FPO wins a solid plurality of seats in the next parliamentary elections, say 35% or so, but nowhere near a majority, would they be able to form a coalition government?  Would the OVP be willing to be a junior partner with them, or would they try to form an OVP, SPO, Green coalition or something like that?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #555 on: April 29, 2016, 11:17:35 PM »

   Ok, another what if Austria question.  If current Nationalrat polls are roughly correct and the FPO wins a solid plurality of seats in the next parliamentary elections, say 35% or so, but nowhere near a majority, would they be able to form a coalition government?  Would the OVP be willing to be a junior partner with them, or would they try to form an OVP, SPO, Green coalition or something like that?

I'd say the ÖVP would enter a coalition with the FPÖ right now because they are simply tired and annoyed of being in the Grand Coalition.
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mvd10
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« Reply #556 on: April 30, 2016, 04:07:40 AM »

   Ok, another what if Austria question.  If current Nationalrat polls are roughly correct and the FPO wins a solid plurality of seats in the next parliamentary elections, say 35% or so, but nowhere near a majority, would they be able to form a coalition government?  Would the OVP be willing to be a junior partner with them, or would they try to form an OVP, SPO, Green coalition or something like that?

I'd say the ÖVP would enter a coalition with the FPÖ right now because they are simply tired and annoyed of being in the Grand Coalition.

Would the FPÖ deliver the chancellor in this case or will they do the same as in Denmark where a smaller centre right party (in Austria's case the ÖVP) delivers the chancellor since a (far) right wing populist as chancellor would be rather controversial?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #557 on: April 30, 2016, 10:49:55 AM »

   Ok, another what if Austria question.  If current Nationalrat polls are roughly correct and the FPO wins a solid plurality of seats in the next parliamentary elections, say 35% or so, but nowhere near a majority, would they be able to form a coalition government?  Would the OVP be willing to be a junior partner with them, or would they try to form an OVP, SPO, Green coalition or something like that?

I'd say the ÖVP would enter a coalition with the FPÖ right now because they are simply tired and annoyed of being in the Grand Coalition.

Would the FPÖ deliver the chancellor in this case or will they do the same as in Denmark where a smaller centre right party (in Austria's case the ÖVP) delivers the chancellor since a (far) right wing populist as chancellor would be rather controversial?

Strache said that if the FPÖ is the strongest party in the next election, he has a "mandate" to become the next Chancellor and that he won't back down. Which means either Strache becomes Chancellor, or there will be a coalition without the FPÖ ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #558 on: April 30, 2016, 10:51:56 AM »

Another good poll for Hofer, for Profil magazine:

"How concerned are you about the fact that Hofer might become President of Austria ?"

44% concerned (25% very concerned, 19% somewhat concerned)
50% not concerned (34% not concerned at all, 16% not really concerned)
  6% undecided

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-sorgen-hofer-bundespraesident-6344252
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adma
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« Reply #559 on: April 30, 2016, 04:10:07 PM »

Yesterday evening, Marlene Svazek (23) was elected the new FPÖ-leader of Salzburg state.

She's the youngest state FPÖ-leader so far and also the only woman.



http://salzburg.orf.at/news/stories/2771325

Anyone else notice her resemblance to the female Ted Cruz lookalike?


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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #560 on: May 01, 2016, 06:18:43 AM »

Anyone else notice her resemblance to the female Ted Cruz lookalike?

LOL.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #561 on: May 01, 2016, 06:24:14 AM »

Van der Bellen tries to win over rural, conservative ÖVP-voting farmers by "promising" them quick aid from the natural disaster fonds - after the recent cold weather destroyed most of their apple, strawberry, wine crops etc.

http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/Van_der_Bellen_fordert_rasche_Hilfe_fuer_Bauern-Frostschaeden-Story-508051

At least he was quicker than Hofer to do so, which means he might have scored a point or two for the runoff ...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #562 on: May 01, 2016, 06:37:46 AM »

Here is an analysis about why Hofer actually could win the runoff, by Prof. Reinhard Heinisch (professor of Political Science with the University of Salzburg Austria, specializing in comparative populism and party politics):

A far-right president of Austria is all but inevitable

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https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-europe-make-it/reinhard-heinisch/far-right-president-of-austria-is-all-but-inevitable
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #563 on: May 01, 2016, 06:56:31 AM »

Two very different May 1 parades today:

* On the one hand, a disillusioned/internally divided SPÖ with their traditional May 1 parade in Vienna - where Faymann got shouted at by some of the SPÖ-voters who were there (30-40 years ago, 100.000-200.000 SPÖ folks showed up - today not even 20.000-50.000 attended).

* On the other hand, a triumphant FPÖ at a Linz beer tent, which was packed with 5.000 supporters. Presidential candidate Hofer and FPÖ-leader Strache attacked both the SPÖ and the Green presidential candidate Van der Bellen and described themselves as the "heirs of Bruno Kreisky" and urged disillusioned SPÖ-voters to join them. Also, Hofer said: "While Van der Bellen refers to our police as a latent, violent force - I will make sure the police has the funding they need." and "While I have served in the military and will visit our soldiers guarding the border and properly fund the army again, Van der Bellen has never served in the military."
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #564 on: May 01, 2016, 08:49:01 AM »

The SPÖ base today:



"Faymann, resign !"

"Upper cap for electoral defeats ! Faymann resign, now !"

Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #565 on: May 01, 2016, 09:25:07 AM »

Article:

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-chancellor-idUSKCN0XS190
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Cranberry
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« Reply #566 on: May 01, 2016, 09:33:03 AM »

It's obviously beyond time for Faymann to just go away, but I suspect they don't want to "waste" a new leader, because a huge loss at the next elections will be inevitable. Basically, I think the SPÖ has two roads going forward:

Dumping Faymann now -> installing some old, "caretaker" PM that still enjoys some respect but has no more political aspirations for his future (they could dig out some old Vranitzky/Klima-era ministers, or maybe the ÖGB leader Foglar?) -> that guy loses the next election -> they get a new leader, this time to stay (Kern?), who would hypothetically be in the position to rebuild the party and reposition them in opposition

Keeping Faymann on now -> Faymann loses the election (probably more badly than someone else would) -> Faymann gets dumped, replaced by some other guy (Kern?) -> again, the last point from above is possible; but I fear not really likely...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #567 on: May 01, 2016, 09:41:47 AM »

It's obviously beyond time for Faymann to just go away, but I suspect they don't want to "waste" a new leader, because a huge loss at the next elections will be inevitable. Basically, I think the SPÖ has two roads going forward:

Dumping Faymann now -> installing some old, "caretaker" PM that still enjoys some respect but has no more political aspirations for his future (they could dig out some old Vranitzky/Klima-era ministers, or maybe the ÖGB leader Foglar?) -> that guy loses the next election -> they get a new leader, this time to stay (Kern?), who would hypothetically be in the position to rebuild the party and reposition them in opposition

Keeping Faymann on now -> Faymann loses the election (probably more badly than someone else would) -> Faymann gets dumped, replaced by some other guy (Kern?) -> again, the last point from above is possible; but I fear not really likely...

Yeah, the signs are pointing in the direction that the SPÖ will spend the next years in opposition (which would suit them well).

Let's assume Hofer wins the runoff and becomes President. He could then either be a relatively moderate President with high approvals after some time (except the fringe from the Left, which will always oppose him) and let SPÖVP in office until they implode themselves and new elections are held either in the fall or next year. Or Hofer goes confrontational against SPÖVP and after some talks dismisses the government. New elections are held, after which FPÖVP takes power ... I see FPÖVP as more likely than FPÖ-SPÖ right now, unless the SPÖ chooses the Cranberry-mentioned union leader Foglar as their new leader. He recently said the SPÖ needs to take a new approach regarding the FPÖ and how to work with them. Apparently, this is because he sees every day how many former, unionized SPÖ-voters are abandoning the party in disgust for the FPÖ ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #568 on: May 01, 2016, 10:14:48 AM »

Hofer (FPÖ) in an interview today:

"I will get between 55-60% in the runoff."

And he said that he'll not sign any law with a tax increase, because the government could easily cut spending for administration (which is indeed true, because according to the Court of Audit the Austrian administration is extremely expensive when compared for example with the Swiss one and spending could be cut by at least 3-5 Bio. € each year. Also, there's a lot of spending that is going to SPÖ- or ÖVP-affiliated groups, which could be cut significantly => "pork").

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Hofer-Ich-hole-zwischen-55-und-60-Prozent/233996736

Looks like Hofer wants to be an active checks-and-balances President ...
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aross
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« Reply #569 on: May 01, 2016, 10:28:38 AM »
« Edited: May 01, 2016, 01:05:11 PM by aross »

I decided to go to the parade in Vienna to see how the SPÖ were getting along.
The atmosphere wasn't actually as grim as I expected, and they still managed to fill the space quite well. However, Faymann was received extremely negatively - and not just from the usual troublemakers, ie the loony left and the party youth. He had barely spoken two sentences when he was completely drowned out by boos. I think what he did when they finally calmed down was skip over all the rest of his speech but the last paragraph... Anyway, he soon shuffled off stage. He was followed by Vienna Mayor Häupl (slipping in winks to everyone from the FPÖ appeasers to the refugees welcome crowd like the slimeball he is), Foglar, the president of the Trade Union Confederation (30 minutes of industrial productions stats - seriously. Shame, I've been quite impressed by him previously.), and Deputy Mayor Brauner (not actually that bad). All of them backed Faymann to the hilt.

Oh, and they still sing The Internationale at the end, that was nice. Also, Häupl looks like some kind of Soviet politburo member, the way he just stands there while they march past and waves to the crowd.

EDIT: They also all endorsed Van der Bellen.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #570 on: May 01, 2016, 12:26:26 PM »



In the background: "Werner, the course is right !"

Yeah, the course is definitely right ...

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #571 on: May 01, 2016, 12:33:57 PM »

Richard Lugner (who got slightly more than 2% in round one) endorses Hofer:

http://derstandard.at/2000036054129/Lugner-Hofer-steht-fuer-Machtwechsel

Not really a surprise.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #572 on: May 01, 2016, 12:42:33 PM »

Assuming Hofer's and Lugner's voters are turning out again like in round one, Hofer has ca. 37.5% for sure.

That means he needs just 12.5% of the 41% of Griss/Hundstorfer/Khol voters to win.

Or just 3/10 of their voters.

Also, the Gallup poll shows that higher turnout would be good for Hofer too: He leads VdB among previous non-voters by a 2:1 margin ...
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reciprocity
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« Reply #573 on: May 02, 2016, 05:53:06 AM »
« Edited: May 04, 2016, 08:53:14 AM by reciprocity »

vdB is so blah..... I would not be surprised if he lost. If he does win, it wouldn't be because of any of his own attributes. Were there not any better candidates the non-FPO parties couldn't put up and support?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #574 on: May 02, 2016, 11:52:48 AM »

vdB is so blah..... I would not be surprised if he lost. If he does win, it be because of any of his own attributes. Were there not any better candidates the non-FPO parties couldn't put up and support?

I would also not really be surprised if Hofer wins the runoff big time. Many (rural) Austrians have strong reservations against a Green President. While they like basic Green Party policies on the environment, agriculture and TTIP opposition, they are strongly turned off by their strongly pro-immigration policies.

If Van der Bellen still somehow wins, it's probably because voters already sent a strong signal to SPÖVP in round one, but when push comes to shove they are more likely to weigh their options and opt for the less controversial candidate. But I consider this scenario less likely.

...

Looking back, it probably would have been better if SPÖ and ÖVP ran a joint candidate, which would have made the runoff against Hofer. But the question remains if this candidate would actually have beaten Hofer in the runoff, considering 80% of voters disapprove of the government work.
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