Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

What's also important:

Both Hofer and Van der Bellen have said they will veto the TTIP treaty, if it passes in the Austrian Parliament.

Which probably means that TTIP won't take effect in Europe for the next 6 years.

[Tender Branson]

Van der Bellen plays chicken and pulls out of the ORF "Citizen Forum" debate, where the audience was to ask questions to the candidates.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Van-der-Bellen-kneift-vor-Hofer/234128083

Van der Bellen only agreed to a moderator-led debate on the ORF 3 days before the runoff.

[rob in cal]

   One would think that Griss would have made a strong runoff candidate, as she had a centrist profile and thus could win support from the center and left against Hofer.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

   One would think that Griss would have made a strong runoff candidate, as she had a centrist profile and thus could win support from the center and left against Hofer.

Griss would probably had a chance to defeat Hofer as she appears to be an acceptable person to all camps of Austrian voters. Van der Bellen on the other hand is tied to impopular pro-immigration policies that are very off with the current mood in all European electorates which makes it very hard for me to even see him coming close to defeating Hofer.

[Classic Conservative]

Hopefully Hofer wins this!!!

[Cranberry]

Quick question Tender, who are you (or did already, iirc you said you'd too vote via Wahlkarte) going to vote for? My intentions should be clear to you, I guess, but I'm interested in yours.

[Omega21]

Quick question Tender, who are you (or did already, iirc you said you'd too vote via Wahlkarte) going to vote for? My intentions should be clear to you, I guess, but I'm interested in yours.

He said he would vote for Vdb even if he doesnt like him that much... He said so a few pages back

[Tender Branson]

Quick question Tender, who are you (or did already, iirc you said you'd too vote via Wahlkarte) going to vote for? My intentions should be clear to you, I guess, but I'm interested in yours.

I posted this a few pages before:

I cannot bring myself to ever vote for an FPÖ candidate, sry.

But VdB is like ... meh.

But I hold my nose and still vote VdB in the runoff.

Most in my family will vote for Hofer though.

Also, I will vote by postal ballot again because my little niece has first communion on that Sunday, which means going to church early on, then dinner and then coffee-talk in the afternoon.

So, no time really to vote at my precinct

PS: I now think Hofer will win in a landslide (something like 56-44). My family and friends are usually a good indicator of what's going to happen and there are a lot of FPÖ-voters among them and they seem extremely motivated to go out and vote this time ...

[Omega21]

Quick question Tender, who are you (or did already, iirc you said you'd too vote via Wahlkarte) going to vote for? My intentions should be clear to you, I guess, but I'm interested in yours.

I posted this a few pages before:

I cannot bring myself to ever vote for an FPÖ candidate, sry.

But VdB is like ... meh.

But I hold my nose and still vote VdB in the runoff.

Most in my family will vote for Hofer though.

Also, I will vote by postal ballot again because my little niece has first communion on that Sunday, which means going to church early on, then dinner and then coffee-talk in the afternoon.

So, no time really to vote at my precinct

PS: I now think Hofer will win in a landslide (something like 56-44). My family and friends are usually a good indicator of what's going to happen and there are a lot of FPÖ-voters among them and they seem extremely motivated to go out and vote this time ...

Also the huge migrant crime wave in Vienna and other Urban communities will help probablly, today a Kenyan asylum seeker stabbed and killed a 50 year old Woman in public, without any clear motive.

http://m.oe24.at/oesterreich/chronik/Frau-mit-Eisenstange-getoetet-Festnahme/234320284

Plus Praterstern has 7 crimes a day, and most of the problems there are with African/Arab men raping and commiting violence in general.


In your opinion how much do these thinga reflect on the election?

[rob in cal]

    I wonder if the fact that so many of the crimes committed by migrants are against women will have an impact in the women's vote in coming elections, and also the vote in Vienna. 
    Tender, you mention that many people you know are going to vote for Hofer in the runoff.  What parties do they usually support in legislative elections?

[Tender Branson]

There has been a constant stream of brutal (sex) attacks by Arab/African immigrants recently, most of them from impoverished wastelands like AfPak, Chechnya, Iraq and African countries - but hardly any Syrians though.

Just yesterday, there was a 2-page story in a major newspaper about a 70+ year old Austrian grandmother who was brutally beaten down and raped by 2 young Afghan men - who told police as an excuse that "they did not have sex for 2 months now" ...

And the report in the newspaper showed pictures of the clearly broken, traumatized old woman next to her daughter who described how these Arab rapists destroyed her family and how hard it is to explain this to her grandchilds that her grandmum is now cowering in a chair unable to do simple things or talk ...

Stuff like this makes people EXTREMELY angry.

PS: Norbert Hofer's wife works in a retirement home and is a care professional for old people.

So you get a sense of what's going to happen on May 22, because on the one hand you have a candidate who tries to care about the "average folk", while on the other hand you have a Green representative of the destructive Merkel-ish "welcome policy" which led to all these recent horrible crimes ...

[Omega21]

There has been a constant stream of brutal (sex) attacks by Arab/African immigrants recently, most of them from impoverished wastelands like AfPak, Chechnya, Iraq and African countries - but hardly any Syrians though.

Just yesterday, there was a 2-page story in a major newspaper about a 70+ year old Austrian grandmother who was brutally beaten down and raped by 2 young Afghan men - who told police as an excuse that "they did not have sex for 2 months now" ...

And the report in the newspaper showed pictures of the clearly broken, traumatized old woman next to her daughter who described how these Arab rapists destroyed her family and how hard it is to explain this to her grandchilds that her grandmum is now cowering in a chair unable to do simple things or talk ...

Stuff like this makes people EXTREMELY angry.

PS: Norbert Hofer's wife works in a retirement home and is a care professional for old people.

So you get a sense of what's going to happen on May 22, because on the one hand you have a candidate who tries to care about the "average folk", while on the other hand you have a Green representative of the destructive Merkel-ish "welcome policy" which led to all these recent horrible crimes ...

If all Lefties thought like you i wouldn't ever vote for the Right..

I read in DiePresse an article about Cologne yesterday, and in one part it said Wien is not like Cologne, Yet.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, the runoff campaign is very smooth so far with no candidate/party really attacking each other. Hofer talked about how he would swear in a successor of Faymann as SPÖ-leader and future Chancellor (which he would do). And it turned out that one of his grandfathers was an American citizen. And he said he wants nothing to do with the far-right "Identitary Movement".

Van der Bellen meanwhile talked about a zero-tolerance policy for criminal foreigners. I have seen quite a few of the new VdB posters around here, while Hofer's campaign seems to put them up next week. BTW: VdB was able to secure the SPÖ-spots for campaign posters, because the SPÖ agreed to hand them over to the VdB campaign.

[Tender Branson]

I've read an article recently about runoff polls and if they should be conducted/published or not - following the massive pollster failure in Round 1.

There seems to be a divide among pollsters and newspaper editors, with the tabloids Ö24/Gallup and Krone/IMAS in favour of conducting a few more.

Another tabloid, Heute, has decided not to commission a runoff poll - as has the "Presse" newspaper.

Another major pollster, OGM, has said they are likely to do one final poll.

http://wirtschaftsblatt.at/home/nachrichten/oesterreich/4980189/Marktforscher-fur-Beipackzettel-bei-WahlUmfragen-offen

[Tender Branson]

Translation later, but it's pretty similar to Donald Trump's platform:

[Tender Branson]

In his final campaign posters, Van der Bellen invokes Obama, Kreisky and Figl:

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[Tender Branson]

New Van der Bellen fan video, called "Van der Struck" (feat. AC/DC):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYXfP9EB_Xo

Not bad, but I still have the impression they are trying to revive an already-dead horse ...

[rob in cal]

   I like it that Hofer has put the expansion of direct democracy as one of his key bullet points on the poster.  In the US when we've had governors or governor candidates who claim to support the institution of initiative and referendum in their states (like Gov. Bush in Texas, and currently Christie in New Jersey) they usually don't make a big deal about it and actually campaign on it, so its nice to see Hofer highlighting it.

[Tender Branson]

Relatively big breaking news (though not officially confirmed yet):

According to sources who reported it to the STANDARD newspaper, Chancellor Faymann has lost the backing of his close supporter, Vienna-mayor Michael Häupl.

The SPÖ will have another major crisis meeting next Monday and maybe Faymann will announce his retirement there (or what's more likely, that he won't run for re-election as SPÖ-leader in their next convention, which could be held later this year).

http://derstandard.at/2000036372796/SPOe-Krise-Werner-Faymanns-Rueckhalt-schwindet

[Sozialliberal]

   One would think that Griss would have made a strong runoff candidate, as she had a centrist profile and thus could win support from the center and left against Hofer.

Griss would probably had a chance to defeat Hofer as she appears to be an acceptable person to all camps of Austrian voters. Van der Bellen on the other hand is tied to impopular pro-immigration policies that are very off with the current mood in all European electorates which makes it very hard for me to even see him coming close to defeating Hofer.

That's why I'm an advocate of instant-runoff voting for presidential elections. Griss would have most certainly won this election if Austria had this voting system.

I've made a list of prominent members of parties other than the Greens who have publicly said that they're going to vote for Van der Bellen in the second round:

SPÖ

• Franz Vranitzky, former Chancellor of Austria (1986–1997), former Federal Chairman of the SPÖ (1988–1997)
• Erich Foglar, President of the Austrian Trade Union Federation
• Michael Häupl, Mayor of Vienna, Chairman of the SPÖ of Vienna
• Peter Kaiser, Governor of Carinthia, Chairman of the SPÖ of Carinthia
• Werner Faymann, Chancellor of Austria, Federal Chairman of the SPÖ
• Christian Kern, CEO of the Austrian Federal Railways, potential future SPÖ chairman
• Andreas Schieder, Chairman of the SPÖ Parliamentary Group in the National Council
• Rudolf Hundstorfer, SPÖ candidate in the 2016 presidential election, former Minister for Labour, Social Services and Consumer Protection (2008–2016), former President of the Austrian Trade Union Federation (2007–2008)
• Eugen Freund, journalist, SPÖ top candidate in the 2014 European Parliament election
• Matthias Stadler, Chairman of the SPÖ of Lower Austria, Mayor of St. Pölten
• Johann Kalliauer, Chairman of the SPÖ of Upper Austria
• Ingo Mayr, Chairman of the SPÖ of Tyrol
• Michael Ritsch, Chairman of the SPÖ of Vorarlberg

ÖVP

• Othmar Karas; ÖVP top candidate in the 2014 European Parliament election; former Vice President of the European Parliament (2012–2014)
• Franz Fischler; former European Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development and Fishing (1995–2004); former Austrian Minister for Agriculture and Forestry (1989–1994)

NEOS and predecessor parties

• Matthias Strolz, Federal Chairman of NEOS
• Friedhelm Frischenschlager, founding member of the Liberal Forum, former Minister for Defence (1983–1986), former Chairman of the FPÖ Parliamentary Group in the National Council (1986–1990)
• Hans Peter Haselsteiner, construction tycoon, former Deputy Chairman of the Liberal Forum Parliamentary Group in the National Council (1996–1998)
• Angelika Mlinar, NEOS top candidate in the 2014 European Parliament election, Federal Deputy Chairwoman of NEOS
• Heide Schmidt (had only said she'd vote for VdB in the 1st round, but she'll vote for him again for sure), founding member of the Liberal Forum, former Third President of the National Council (1990–1994), former Deputy Chairwoman of the FPÖ (1990–1993), FPÖ candidate in the 1992 presidential election

Robert Lugar (Chairman of the Team Stronach Parliamentary Group in the National Council) is the only prominent member of a party other than the FPÖ who supports Hofer.

[Tender Branson]

Notice how only a few ÖVP politicians are publicly endorsing Van der Bellen.

Which probably means that Hofer will get a big chunk of the ÖVP electorate on election day.

...

Also: Tomorrow the first head-to-head debate will take place between Hofer and VdB on PULS 4.

[Tender Branson]

Another good article by POLITICO:

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http://www.politico.eu/article/green-gamble-contain-far-right-austria-freedom-party-norbert-hofer-alexander-van-der-bellen

[Tender Branson]

Van der Bellen on the other hand is tied to impopular pro-immigration policies that are very off with the current mood in all European electorates which makes it very hard for me to even see him coming close to defeating Hofer.

I also see it that way. Plus, in the last few days the FPÖ is trying to tie VdB to the internally destroyed SPÖ and their policies. HC Strache (FPÖ-leader) seems to play the attack dog here and posted a picture of VdB's campaign posters using SPÖ poster spots on his Facebook page, while Hofer plays "Mr. Nice Guy" who's moving more and more to the center ...

http://www.thelocal.at/20160506/austrias-far-right-presidential-candidate-seeks-to-soften-image

[Tender Branson]

The first major runoff debate will be held today at 8.15pm on PULS 4 TV.

Hofer and VdB will be asked questions for ca. 2 hours by the moderators and the audience.

As usual, pollster OGM will do a live-poll during the debate - using a representative online panel of 500 Austrian voters and debate watchers - to see who did best on various topics and who won the debate.



Live stream of the debate is here:

http://www.puls4.com/pro-und-contra/bpwahl-live

[Tender Branson]

Mother's Day interview with Norbert Hofer's wife and daughter:



Looks like a nice family. No wonder he'll mop the floor with VdB among middle-aged working class voters and family people. Interesting also that police officers are stationed 24/7 in front of their house.