Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

Finally ... a new runoff poll:

MindTake Research (n=505, May 3-9, method: CAWI)

52.3% Hofer (FPÖ)
47.7% VdB (Greens)

Men: Hofer+14 (57-43)
Women: VdB+6 (53-47)

http://www.marktmeinungmensch.at/studien/protected/study_files/801

...

Never heard of this pollster, but this is the first time Hofer has led a runoff poll.

I did more research about that "MindTake" pollster and it turned out that they also did a poll for ServusTV slightly before the first round.

And their poll was extremely close to the actual results, while all other pollsters flopped.



http://www.marktmeinungmensch.at/studien/bundespraesidentschaftswahl-2016-umfrage-auf-servu

[Tender Branson]

There are 2 arguments right now about how the Faymann resignation might impact the runoff:

* One is that with Faymann gone, the FPÖ has a mobilisation problem => people already sent a strong anti-Faymann message by voting for Hofer in the 1st round, so they are unlikely to go out and vote for him again with the prospect of a new SPÖ leader. Also, turnout could drop significantly because SPÖ-voters are in shock and disillusioned and don't care about the Presidential election anymore. Same with ÖVP-voters to a lower degree. Lower turnout would help Van der Bellen, who could eek out a small win.

* Another one is that because of the closeness of the race, it will bring additional voters to the polls. And because of the continuing chaos in the SPÖ, FPÖ-voters could be extra-motivated to vote. Which would benefit Hofer.

[reciprocity]

Just be the 22nd already.

[rob in cal]

   I'm wondering what smaller cities or towns have a big working class and have historically been SPO strongholds but might very well give Hofer a big majority?  Also, on the other side, wealthier smaller cities and towns which have historically gone to the OVP perhaps, but now might swing to VDB. 

[Tender Branson]

The new Gallup poll for Ö24 (n=600, May 10-11) breaks it down into 3 groups:

Among all Austrians, Hofer leads VdB by 53-47.

Among the 70% who say they are voting in the election, it's a 50-50 tie.

And among those who say they are already 100% certain to vote for a candidate, VdB actually leads 51-49.

Which means the higher the turnout, the better for Hofer. If turnout drops to 60-65% because many SPÖ, ÖVP, Griss voters are sitting the runoff out, then VdB might actually have a chance to win this thing.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Hofburg-Wahl-Hofer-in-Fuehrung/235248837

[Flocke]

According to several newspapers the SPÖ agreed on Christian Kern as new chancellor and chairman. Kern is currently CEO of the Austrian Federal Railways.

http://derstandard.at/2000036826511/Treffen-im-Wiener-Rathaus-Zeichen-stehen-auf-Kern
http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN0Y316H
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Kern

[aross]

Gallup/Östereich:

[Sozialliberal]

  I'm wondering what smaller cities or towns have a big working class and have historically been SPO strongholds but might very well give Hofer a big majority?

That would be the Mur-Mürz-Furche, an industrial region in northern Styria. It became a hub of the the Austrian iron and steel industry in the 19th century. Even today, most jobs in the region are in this sector. The Mur-Mürz-Furche was hit hard by the steel crisis in the late 20th century that resulted in job losses and migration of younger people. Like the Rust Belt in the US, it's a region that has to reinvent itself.

How major towns in the Mur-Mürz-Furche voted
2013 legislative election versus 2016 presidential election, round 1
Mürzzuschlag (2013 results, 2016 results)
Kapfenberg (2013 results, 2016 results)
Bruck an der Mur (2013 results, 2016 results)
Leoben (2013 results, 2016 results)
Judenburg (2013 results, 2016 results)

Also, on the other side, wealthier smaller cities and towns which have historically gone to the OVP perhaps, but now might swing to VDB.  

Some affluent suburbs of Vienna:
Klosterneuburg (2013 results, 2016 results)
Perchtoldsdorf (2013 results, 2016 results)
Maria Enzersdorf (2013 results, 2016 results)

[Omega21]

  I'm wondering what smaller cities or towns have a big working class and have historically been SPO strongholds but might very well give Hofer a big majority?

That would be the Mur-Mürz-Furche, an industrial region in northern Styria. It became a hub of the the Austrian iron and steel industry in the 19th century. Even today, most jobs in the region are in this sector. The Mur-Mürz-Furche was hit hard by the steel crisis in the late 20th century that resulted in job losses and migration of younger people. Like the Rust Belt in the US, it's a region that has to reinvent itself.

How major towns in the Mur-Mürz-Furche voted
2013 legislative election versus 2016 presidential election, round 1
Mürzzuschlag (2013 results, 2016 results)
Kapfenberg (2013 results, 2016 results)
Bruck an der Mur (2013 results, 2016 results)
Leoben (2013 results, 2016 results)
Judenburg (2013 results, 2016 results)

Also, on the other side, wealthier smaller cities and towns which have historically gone to the OVP perhaps, but now might swing to VDB.  

Some affluent suburbs of Vienna:
Klosterneuburg (2013 results, 2016 results)
Perchtoldsdorf (2013 results, 2016 results)
Maria Enzersdorf (2013 results, 2016 results)

If im correct I look at it this way, wealthy people living in wealthy areas will mostly go Vdb, because they don't face the safety problems like Blue-collar workers in some parts of Vienna where Migrants caused a spike in rape and violence, also wealthy people are mostly higly educated and they lean towards the left..

Lower income families that live in these problematic areas face these problems hand to hand, like this woman who was assaulted and almost by an Algerian today, at Praterstern ofcourse: http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/chronik/wien/Sex-Attacke-von-Asylwerber-am-Praterstern/235335648

These people face these problems and have had enoguh of the Green/Red politicians telling them about the beauty of multiculturism even though they live in wealthy and safe White neighborhood's, while these normal people suffer for the mass immigration of uneducated Muslim men pouring into Austria.


Also, first reports of Sharia "police in Vienna are in.

http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/Islam-Sittenwaechter_verpruegeln_Rosenkavalier-Stoert_Religion-Story-509740

Everything I see in the news really only benefits Hofer/FPO..

[Sozialliberal]

Your argumentation is very one-sided. Rudolfheim-Fünfhaus is a district of Vienna with a relatively high percentage of immigrants (especially from majority Muslim countries), but the FPÖ share of the vote is usually below the average in this district. Although there are relatively few foreign nationals in the Mur-Mürz-Furche, Hofer's results are above the average in this region. So it's not that simple.

[Omega21]

Your argumentation is very one-sided. Rudolfheim-Fünfhaus is a district of Vienna with a relatively high percentage of immigrants (especially from majority Muslim countries), but the FPÖ share of the vote is usually below the average in this district. Although there are relatively few foreign nationals in the Mur-Mürz-Furche, Hofer's results are above the average in this region. So it's not that simple.

I'm saying in general it could be like this, plus the Rural countryside is more conservative of course and will go for Hofer like in the 1st round..

Also, could any of you tell me if this is true?

https://www.wochenblick.at/steyr-asyl-familie-bekam-5-118-euro-pro-monat/

Asylum family gets 5800 Euros a month, boy you Austrians must have 30 000 Euro paychecks/month if you're giving a family that never payed into the system that kind of money.. (sarcasm)

[reciprocity]

The new Gallup poll for Ö24 (n=600, May 10-11) breaks it down into 3 groups:

Among all Austrians, Hofer leads VdB by 53-47.

Among the 70% who say they are voting in the election, it's a 50-50 tie.

And among those who say they are already 100% certain to vote for a candidate, VdB actually leads 51-49.

Which means the higher the turnout, the better for Hofer. If turnout drops to 60-65% because many SPÖ, ÖVP, Griss voters are sitting the runoff out, then VdB might actually have a chance to win this thing.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Hofburg-Wahl-Hofer-in-Fuehrung/235248837

How does those voter groups sitting out the runoff benefit vdB? Especially the Griss and SPO voters.

[Tender Branson]

The new Gallup poll shows how voters of the 1st-round dropout candidates would vote:

Griss voters (19%): 65% Van der Bellen, 35% Hofer
Hundstorfer voters (11%): 82% Van der Bellen, 18% Hofer
Khol voters (11%): 50% Van der Bellen, 50% Hofer

Also, Lugner got 2% and I guess most of his voters would vote for Hofer.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Griss-und-SPOe-Fans-tendieren-zu-VdB/235382458

[Tender Branson]

Jean-Claude Juncker (President of the European Commission) endorses VdB.

Juncker (and also EP-President Martin Schulz recently) are probably one of the biggest campaigners and vote-getters for Hofer (besides all the Arab/Middle-Eastern/African rapists and murderers).

[Tender Branson]

Germany's satirists from the ARD are going into overdrive recently and show how Austria will look like after the Presidential runoff (using the re-designed Giant Wheel in Vienna):

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Jean-Claude Juncker (President of the European Commission) endorses VdB.

That's it, RIP Van der Bellen! Juncker gives his endorsement kiss of death. All hail president Hofer.

[Tender Branson]

I made a map which shows the combined % of Hofer/Khol/Lugner by district:



The map shows how difficult it will be for VdB to win the runoff. Carinthia and Vorarlberg had a relatively high Griss-vote, but in the end I guess all Carinthia districts will vote for Hofer. Maybe one or two districts in Vorarlberg will vote for VdB. Only Vienna and suburbs and the bigger cities (Graz, Linz, Innsbruck, Steyr and St. Pölten) are likely won by VdB. Even Gmunden and Bruck-Mürzzuschlag are likely to end up voting for Hofer, because they were already close to 50% in round 1.

[rob in cal]

  Maybe VDB does really well in Vienna and nowhere else but still wins.  That would be an Illinois scenario where the Dem wins Cook county massively, loses every other county in the state, but still wins.  I believed this happened in the 2010 governor race.

[Cranberry]

  Maybe VDB does really well in Vienna and nowhere else but still wins.  That would be an Illinois scenario where the Dem wins Cook county massively, loses every other county in the state, but still wins.  I believed this happened in the 2010 governor race.

Except that, in contrast to Illinois, there are urban areas in Austria where the Greens do really well - Innsbruck, Graz, Bregenz, Linz, to a lesser extent Salzburg. Van der Bellen is definitely going to win all of them, just as their suburbs. I also wouldn't count him out in Landeck district in Tirol, which is one of the most rural districts but his home district, where he got up to 60% in some municipalities.

[Tender Branson]

Also, compare my map above with the recent purchasing power map from GfK by district:

dark green = low purchasing power
dark red = high purchasing power
yellow = average purchasing power



Areas with a low purchasing power voted strongly for Hofer/Khol/Lugner, while areas with high purchasing power voted mostly Van der Bellen.

[Famous Mortimer]

What is the FPO's economic platform currently like? I know people always talk about them having working class support but I was under the impression, correct me if I'm wrong, that their economic policies have never been as populist as the Danish People's Party or the Party for Freedom. I thought they were more anti-tax, pro-business, owing to their origin as a semi-legitimate liberal party.

[Tender Branson]

I went grocery shopping today and was approached not by 1 but by 4 FPÖ/Hofer-recruiters in front of the shopping centers. That's probably the first time I've seen more FPÖ-campaigners in front of the shopping centers than actual beggars who want money or sell newspapers ...

Anyway, I told him that I already voted by mail but he still gave me a Hofer-flyer and a pen.

[Tender Branson]

Also, I visited my brother in St. Johann in Tyrol a few days ago and while driving there I noticed that not only Zell am See and surroundings are fully plastered with Hofer-posters, but also all major towns in the Kitzbühel district. In most towns, incl. St. Johann and Kitzbühel there were about 15-20 Hofer posters along the road, compared with around 3-5 for VdB. I also saw several huge Hofer posters which were about 10 feet broad and 7 feet high or something. It looks that at least here and in the Kitzbühel area the poster/campaign people for Hofer did a better job than the VdB people ...

[Tender Branson]

First reports from Graz and Burgenland show that postal ballot requests are much higher already than in round 1 and there's still one week to go to request them.

I guess there will be 750.000 requests for the runoff (which would be a new record), up from about 642.000 in the first round.

Don't know if this is a sign of higher turnout though, postal voting could simply become more popular.

[Omega21]

I need to ask, is this true?

https://www.wochenblick.at/steyr-asyl-familie-bekam-5-118-euro-pro-monat/

Asylum family gets 5000 Euro/month

If it's true I dont get how Vdb could make up the money he would throw away like this by making contracts like the current president. That just would make up <5% of the money the taxpayers pay out to refugees..