Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Cranberry]

What is the FPO's economic platform currently like? I know people always talk about them having working class support but I was under the impression, correct me if I'm wrong, that their economic policies have never been as populist as the Danish People's Party or the Party for Freedom. I thought they were more anti-tax, pro-business, owing to their origin as a semi-legitimate liberal party.

It's a very, very strange mix of pro-business, pro-welfare state cuts policies and handouts to certain groups of people (literally handouts, former leader Haider used to, as Governor of Carinthia, give 500€ in cash to people upon turning 18, for example). During Haider's times they gravitated more towards a populist policy also in theory, but since then have turned back to their liberal, pro-business roots. It's sort of a "preach water, drink wine" situation, as they claim to be a party that's in favour of the welfare state, but they routinely vote for every cut and simply just economically liberal bill.

I need to ask, is this true?

https://www.wochenblick.at/steyr-asyl-familie-bekam-5-118-euro-pro-monat/

Asylum family gets 5000 Euro/month

If it's true I dont get how Vdb could make up the money he would throw away like this by making contracts like the current president. That just would make up <5% of the money the taxpayers pay out to refugees..

The fact that this only appeared in a very FPÖ-near new newspaper whose money-givers apparently (?) even have connections with the Kremlin and definitely with some right-wing Burschenschaften, and nowhere else should answer your question. (Unless you're one of these "Lügenpresse!!1!1!1!" types, which I shall hope not)

It is true that a family with 8 children could theoretically receive a relatively large sum in Mindestsicherung + child benefits, maybe even up to 2k (just a guess, I really have no clue - single persons in OÖ get about 800€, a couple 1200€ with 150€ per child, but less from the fourth child on - that in quick calculation brings me to 2000 if we say 70€/child from child #4 on), but 5.000? If they claim such stuff they should at least use more realistic numbers.

[Omega21]

What is the FPO's economic platform currently like? I know people always talk about them having working class support but I was under the impression, correct me if I'm wrong, that their economic policies have never been as populist as the Danish People's Party or the Party for Freedom. I thought they were more anti-tax, pro-business, owing to their origin as a semi-legitimate liberal party.

It's a very, very strange mix of pro-business, pro-welfare state cuts policies and handouts to certain groups of people (literally handouts, former leader Haider used to, as Governor of Carinthia, give 500€ in cash to people upon turning 18, for example). During Haider's times they gravitated more towards a populist policy also in theory, but since then have turned back to their liberal, pro-business roots. It's sort of a "preach water, drink wine" situation, as they claim to be a party that's in favour of the welfare state, but they routinely vote for every cut and simply just economically liberal bill.

I need to ask, is this true?

https://www.wochenblick.at/steyr-asyl-familie-bekam-5-118-euro-pro-monat/

Asylum family gets 5000 Euro/month

If it's true I dont get how Vdb could make up the money he would throw away like this by making contracts like the current president. That just would make up <5% of the money the taxpayers pay out to refugees..

The fact that this only appeared in a very FPÖ-near new newspaper whose money-givers apparently (?) even have connections with the Kremlin and definitely with some right-wing Burschenschaften, and nowhere else should answer your question. (Unless you're one of these "Lügenpresse!!1!1!1!" types, which I shall hope not)

It is true that a family with 8 children could theoretically receive a relatively large sum in Mindestsicherung + child benefits, maybe even up to 2k (just a guess, I really have no clue - single persons in OÖ get about 800€, a couple 1200€ with 150€ per child, but less from the fourth child on - that in quick calculation brings me to 2000 if we say 70€/child from child #4 on), but 5.000? If they claim such stuff they should at least use more realistic numbers.

Oe24 not being a right-wing website I find this very disturbing:

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/chronik/Wirbel-um-8-252-Euro-Sozialhilfe-fuer-Familie/233657966

I don't get some people, why do you work for your paychecks and pay your taxes just to pay 2+k to some Middle Eastern man that just makes children all day long, hoping just the state will care for it..

Thats part of the reason I would rather elect Trump than Vdb, I don't like either, but I hate people who give out hard-working people's money to outsiders who have no interest in ever putting a cent in to the system.

[Tender Branson]

Cranberry, stuff like this and welfare abuse is real - especially in Vienna:

http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/Auch_Hassprediger_kassiert_Mindestsicherung-Kritik_an_Bezuegen-Story-508498

"Islamist hate-preacher and IS-recruiter collected 2.800€ a month in welfare payments."

...

That's on top of the Afghan family of 9 (7 children), who collects 8.000€ a month in welfare. And now they want a 10th child paid for by us - the Austrian taxpayers - via IVF (in-vitro-fertilisation).

These are just a few excesses from the "welfare-paradise" which Vienna has become in the past decade. Under Faymann and Häupl, Vienna has become a magnet for people all over the world who went there to take their spot in the social hammock:

The number of people on welfare in Vienna has doubled in the past decade, the payments tripled. 40% of welfare recipients are foreigners, despite "only" making up 25% of the overall population.

As an example how Vienna is throwing their money around: Salzburg (540K people) spent 40 Mio. € on welfare payments last year, Vienna (1.8 million) spent 544 Mio. € !

http://derstandard.at/2000034696596/Mindestsicherung-Kosten-stiegen-2015-auf-870-Millionen

And this is only the (recipient) data from 2014, before the recent migrant swamp ...

[Cranberry]

If we take this Afghan family for an example - two of these kids are disabled, that's why they get so much (there's a sort of special child benefit for disabled kids). Also, don't call it abuse when it is all totally legal - they are not allowed to work, so obviously they will get Mindestsicherung. I guess the most simple solution to this is to allow them access to the labour market as soon as they get a permit to stay in Austria, so even when not having been granted asylum? What speaks against that?

[Beezer]

Point is they shouldn't be in Austria in the first place. Europe can't take care of all the handicapped people around the world.

[Cranberry]

Point is they shouldn't be in Austria in the first place. Europe can't take care of all the handicapped people around the world.

Aha, now there we are at the real issue behind this - this was far swifter than I expected. "Bad bad people cashing off while good good Europeans have to pay" is after all just a nice way to say "me no want bad bad brown people".

[Beezer]

I don't care if they're brown Afghans or white Swedes. A welfare state cannot survive if people that haven't paid a single cent into the system get 5000 euros out of it every month. I'd voice the same concerns if a bunch of white American liberal refugees (after Trump's victory) received the same amount of money in Germany or Austria. People on the left need to stop seeing everything through a racial lense.

[Cranberry]

You are comparing apples to oranges here - people from Syria and Afghanistan are war refugees,  "white Swedes" and "liberal Americans" clearly are not. Of course you can now say "I'd voice the same concerns" when we both know that such a scenario will never happen.

But good, let's get the "racial lense" out of the way. An easy solution to this: give refugees access to the labour market as soon as they get (at least a temporal) permit to stay in the country. They find a job, they no longer get Mindestsicherung and instead actively pay into the system. Problem solved? Now why is it that the right shouts, and apologise my usage of German here but that fits just so well, Zeter und Mordio when anything of the like is proposed?

[Beezer]

War refugees that have crossed a dozen safe countries on their way to Austria. A dozen countries where they wouldn't be receiving €5000 a month in welfare payments.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Heck, I'm all for that. Problem is that even the most migrant/refugee friendly data shows that the vast majority of these people will have an incredibly hard time finding a job...ever. Which brings us back to square one: stop people from claiming asylum that have entered the EU via a safe country because any immigration policy that is based on bringing in a million people and then hoping and praying some of them will find jobs is inefficient to say the least.

[Omega21]

You are comparing apples to oranges here - people from Syria and Afghanistan are war refugees,  "white Swedes" and "liberal Americans" clearly are not. Of course you can now say "I'd voice the same concerns" when we both know that such a scenario will never happen.

But good, let's get the "racial lense" out of the way. An easy solution to this: give refugees access to the labour market as soon as they get (at least a temporal) permit to stay in the country. They find a job, they no longer get Mindestsicherung and instead actively pay into the system. Problem solved? Now why is it that the right shouts, and apologise my usage of German here but that fits just so well, Zeter und Mordio when anything of the like is proposed?

Is Slovenia a safe country? Oh, yes it is.

I get you want to help but you are only destroying your country. Race is not a problem, being Black or White or Brown makes no difference. But do you know what makes a difference?


Do you think all of these people are familiar with democracy, familliar with living a life which is not dictated by religion, no they are not.

That is why you see women in burkas, and yes it is their free choice to wear it, but if you teach a child from its infancy that they must believe in Allah and that they must wear a Burka, is that free choice?

Please don't argue the last statement, a documentary by ZDF (It cant get any more Left wing than that) covered Islam and parallel societis in Germany in 2014, please watch it before replying, if you have the time ofcourse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVWAIKoatWM

Notice that the brother and father doesnt let the girl live a normal life, and that none of them would be in a relationship with a non-Muslim.

German born Muslim kid: "The woman must be totally obedient to the husband", and guess what, all of his Muslim class mates agree. T

hese are not some extreme cases, it is almost every second person.

[Tender Branson]

The new Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern starts with strong favourable ratings:

According to a new OGM/Kurier poll, 41% of Austrians have a favourable opinion of him, while only 21% have an unfavourable view. 38% have not heard about him yet or have no opinion.

Among SPÖ-voters: 52-8 favourable

...

Also: Was Faymann's resignation as Chancellor the right thing to do ?

77-10 Yes

Among SPÖ-voters: 60-19 Yes

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/kern-startet-mit-hohen-erwartungen-und-viel-begruessungsapplaus/198.782.546

[Famous Mortimer]

Gallup/Östereich:

If these were the real numbers, what kind of government would happen? Is an FPO Chancellor a real possibility now? Or would they give it to the junior OVP to be more presentable?

[Tender Branson]

If these were the real numbers, what kind of government would happen? Is an FPO Chancellor a real possibility now? Or would they give it to the junior OVP to be more presentable?

FPÖVP, most likely.

Plus, Strache has said that if the FPÖ finishes first - he'll become Chancellor. Period.

Nothing like after the '99 election when the FPÖ came ahead of the ÖVP, but the ÖVP had the Chancellor.

So, either FPÖVP - or SPÖVP-Greens. Or ÖVP-SPÖ-Greens.

[Tender Branson]

The 2nd of 3 runoff debates will be held at ATV on Sunday at 8:15pm - using a Kreisky vs. Taus style debate format.



No moderator, no rules, no audience (except the TV audience). The candidates are choosing their own topics and debate them for 45 minutes.

Live stream of the debate will be here:

http://atv.at/atv-meine-wahl

... at 8:15pm local time.

[Tender Branson]

I did a few calculations for next Sunday:

I think there will be about 650.000 postal ballots counted the Monday after the election.

I assume Van der Bellen wins them by at least 62-38, or even as high as 65-35.

Which further means that VdB nets an additional 2% of the vote alone from the postal ballot count.

Also, recent elections have shown that the first ORF/SORA projection at 5pm (when the polls close) usually overestimate the FPÖ-percentage by about 1-2%, because this projection is based mostly on already-counted rural precincts where Hofer does better and does not take into account Vienna and other big cities yet, which are counted later in the evening.

Because of this, I think that if the first projection shows something like 52-48 Hofer, then VdB could actually win the election with the postal ballots which are netting him 2% overall.

I think the first projection needs to at least show 53.5% for Hofer (or even better: 54%), for him to be more or less the "safe" winner of the Presidency ...

[Tender Branson]

The 2nd of 3 runoff debates will be held at ATV on Sunday at 8:15pm - using a Kreisky vs. Taus style debate format.



No moderator, no rules, no audience (except the TV audience). The candidates are choosing their own topics and debate them for 45 minutes.

Live stream of the debate will be here:

http://atv.at/atv-meine-wahl

... at 8:15pm local time.

Debate starts now.

[Tender Branson]

It began pretty respectful but now it turned really ugly ...

[jeron]

It began pretty respectful but now it turned really ugly ...

True, and it's getting worse.

[Classic Conservative]

What's happening because I don't speak German.

[Tender Branson]

It's over.

Painful to watch.

Hofer constantly tied VdB to Juncker and the EU and as having only the political elite on his side, while Hofer saw himself as an advocate of the Austrian voters.

VdB: "Juncker is a man who had great achievements in his life !"

Hofer: "And these great achievements are what exactly ?"

Long pause from VdB ...

[Omega21]

It's over.

Painful to watch.

Hofer constantly tied VdB to Juncker and the EU and as having only the political elite on his side, while Hofer saw himself as an advocate of the Austrian voters.

VdB: "Juncker is a man who had great achievements in his life !"

Hofer: "And these great achievements are what exactly ?"

Long pause from VdB ...

Would you say Hofer won the debate?

[reciprocity]

I think that format is pretty good despite not understanding anything they were saying. vdB came off well from the clips I saw - especially when Hofer was getting even more red in the face. I think however the mood in Austria is against his candidacy, policies and reputation.

[Tender Branson]

It's over.

Painful to watch.

Hofer constantly tied VdB to Juncker and the EU and as having only the political elite on his side, while Hofer saw himself as an advocate of the Austrian voters.

VdB: "Juncker is a man who had great achievements in his life !"

Hofer: "And these great achievements are what exactly ?"

Long pause from VdB ...

Would you say Hofer won the debate?

Nobody won. Everyone lost ...

Thankfully ATV is a small TV channel with lower ratings, so I'm more interested about how the newspapers will spin it.

[Omega21]

It's over.

Painful to watch.

Hofer constantly tied VdB to Juncker and the EU and as having only the political elite on his side, while Hofer saw himself as an advocate of the Austrian voters.

VdB: "Juncker is a man who had great achievements in his life !"

Hofer: "And these great achievements are what exactly ?"

Long pause from VdB ...

Would you say Hofer won the debate?

Nobody won. Everyone lost ...

Thankfully ATV is a small TV channel with lower ratings, so I'm more interested about how the newspapers will spin it.

I bet the Papers will lean Left, as always, should be fun to see though..

[reciprocity]

It's over.

Painful to watch.

Hofer constantly tied VdB to Juncker and the EU and as having only the political elite on his side, while Hofer saw himself as an advocate of the Austrian voters.

VdB: "Juncker is a man who had great achievements in his life !"

Hofer: "And these great achievements are what exactly ?"

Long pause from VdB ...

This is why I should have stuck with learning German.... Ouch. He is most definitely done. When you cannot defend one of the senior figures in the EU, an institution you align yourself to....