Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

Tender, I wonder if the extra high amount of postal ballots might lead to a different breakdown of how well VDB does with them, because maybe Hofer voters are part of the surge as well.

Might of course be possible, but VdB should get over 60% of the postal vote.

It looks like a bunch of Israeli people and children around an ambulance or something. Not that I care much about how it went, nor to defend Hofer all too much - but it seems the FPÖ-delegation was at least nearby at the scene when the woman terrorist was shot by Israeli security forces.

Except that she was not a terrorist...

But yes, I agree with your conclusion -- but it's definitely more Hofer than the ORF that has been making up things.

OK, then let's call her a "woman who was veiled and behaved very suspiciously and was shot in the leg by security forces after they repeatedly asked her to stop and after several warning shots".

[Tender Branson]

885.437 postal ballots were requested and sent to voters for the runoff:

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/bundespraes/bpw_2016/Wahlkarten_2WG.aspx

That is 38% more than the 641.975 ballots issued for the 1st round.

This could indicate much higher turnout for the runoff (at least I hope so).

[Zanas]

Tender, I wonder if the extra high amount of postal ballots might lead to a different breakdown of how well VDB does with them, because maybe Hofer voters are part of the surge as well.

Might of course be possible, but VdB should get over 60% of the postal vote.

It looks like a bunch of Israeli people and children around an ambulance or something. Not that I care much about how it went, nor to defend Hofer all too much - but it seems the FPÖ-delegation was at least nearby at the scene when the woman terrorist was shot by Israeli security forces.

Except that she was not a terrorist...

But yes, I agree with your conclusion -- but it's definitely more Hofer than the ORF that has been making up things.

OK, then let's call her a "woman who was veiled and behaved very suspiciously and was shot in the leg by security forces after they repeatedly asked her to stop and after several warning shots".

When you describe her like this, one should ask oneself if Hofer himself wasn't the one who shot her...

I'm standing on my VdB win prediction. Hesitating between 52-48 or 54-46. I'll decide some time tomorrow on the exact number.

[Cranberry]

Plus, the Knesset visit might not have been "official", but it's as "official" as it can get for the FPÖ delegation that was there. Remember that there's still the FPÖ boycott in place by the "official Israel", so a secret meeting with the Vice-President of the Knesset from Likud can be seen as "official" ... Of course, both sides probably had an agreement to keep it secret until Hofer is in fact President and ties can be re-established between Likud and the FPÖ on an official basis.

The thing is, it just wasn't official, and he can't just go around and claim it was and expect that no one will claim it for the bulls-it that it is. As you say - there is a boycott in place from the official Israel, so he just can't spin it that way. It's not okay to play this down like this, when it is obvious that he was lying. That's it. Hofer is not just an unsympathetic, sleezy tool of Kickl and all those other pieces of s-it, he is a lying a-hole on top of that.

Gosh, how stupid could this f-ing country be if we seriously elect him...

[Tender Branson]

More Juncker-meddling-in-Austrian-politics:

http://derstandard.at/2000037329255/Juncker-klar-gegen-FPOe-Ich-mag-sie-nicht

Why does this fool not understand that the more he talks, the more votes Hofer will get ?

Advice to Juncker: Shut the f**k up.

[Tender Branson]

My little niece has first communion tomorrow, so you will have to spend most of the election day without my informative comments ...

I'll only be back home at 4pm. But maybe Cranberry can post the important stuff instead.

[Tender Branson]

The "Tagespresse" is once again genius:

("After Knesset-visit: Hofer also healed paralysed beggar in Jerusalem")

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[Tender Branson]

Do you support Hofer or VdB, Tender?

VdB, as posted earlier.

[Bacon King]

Hello friends I have a few questions for your fine thread:

What time do the polls close - and how quickly do they report?
Is there any consistent pattern for Austrian election returns as they come in? (i.e. will the early returns be disproportionately favorable to either candidate)
The media I've seen makes it sound like Hofer is quite heavily favored - realistically, how likely is a VdB win here?

[jaichind]

Will there be exit polls like last time? And given the record postal vote will the exit polls try to take into account of postal votes ?

[DL]

Has Hofer ever been asked his opinion of Adolf Hitler and the Nazis and if so what does he say? Does he actually condemn Hitler and the Holocaust or does he use coded weasel words to let Nazi sympathizers know that he is one of them?

[rob in cal]

   I'm going to have to boycott this thread tomorrow because someone will probably be talking about  the exit polls, and I don't want to know them. Instead I'll follow the election results on the government web site as returns come in and then re-join the thread once its clear who is winning. I'm too chicken to make a winner prediction, just that it will be pretty close.

[Tender Branson]

Runoff-Day is here !

Some polls are already open (but most will open between 7-9am).

The look out of my apartment right now (it's projected to be sunny and very warm throughout the day):



What will Austrians choose today ? Blue like the sky, or Green like on the ground ?

I'm heading to church soon for my small niece's first communion, so I leave it to the other Austrians to keep you up to date ...

[rob in cal]

   Wow, Tender, that is a beautiful view.  Makes me want to visit Austria even more, regardless of who the next President is. Its been 27 years since I was there, but hope to be back in a few years.

[Cranberry]

Hello friends I have a few questions for your fine thread:

What time do the polls close - and how quickly do they report?

Polls close any time until 5pm, but only the big cities leave their polls open that long. So by that time you will have a great big chunk of municipalities already having reported all their votes (safe the ones by mail), especially in the west and in small towns, where polling stations can be closed starting at, I don't know, 11am in some extreme cases, or 1pm in the whole state of Vorarlberg.

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Austria does not report election results the way the US does - instead of reporting results real-time when counted, we have a combination of some exit polls, calculations with last time's results (not this time, obviously, but usually in federal or state elections) and the already counted precinct and municipality-results being projected onto the nation as a whole respective to their usual voting trends - this is released at 5pm, and those numbers are usually quite spot-on with little margin of error. However, given that this is a highly unusual election in a situation that has never happened before in Austrian history, there might well be bigger uncertainties than usual once those numbers come in, and if the margin is slim for any candidate, it might even be until Monday evening, when the postal votes are counted, that our new President is known (that obviously the most extreme case; precinct voting should be counted by 7-9pm-ish at the latest; and if the race is not close but a clear trend is emerging, we will know at 5pm already)

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Honestly, no one really has a clue. I guess I'm more inclined to believe that Hofer will win, but really, anything could happen.

[afleitch]

If Hofer wins, as much as he is political scum I expect disproportionate  bleatings from the EU. They have form. Though not when it comes to Poland or Hungary.

[Tender Branson]

The restaurant were we are right now for my niece's communion is also a voting precinct.

Half the election commission was having dinner next to us and I heard one guy saying they had 350/900 voters by noon but that he expects turnout to fall in the afternoon because of the great weather.

[Tender Branson]

I'm back home. It has 30°C outside and the kids wanted to go swimming ...

Anyway, Vorarlberg is fully counted already (they closed their polls at 1am already !) and turnout there is 6% higher than in the first round (excl. postal ballots). Probably 8% higher alltogether.

But we have to wait and see if people are still going to vote in the afternoon, because it's the hottest day of the year so far and I have seen many people on bike trips, farmers doing their hay and so on ...

[Tender Branson]

Is there a place where you can get the live results on the internet?

Yes, right at 5pm when the polls close at:

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at

and

http://orf.at/wahl/bp16

[Tender Branson]

Has Hofer ever been asked his opinion of Adolf Hitler and the Nazis and if so what does he say? Does he actually condemn Hitler and the Holocaust or does he use coded weasel words to let Nazi sympathizers know that he is one of them?

Hofer has condemned the Nazi-time several times in interviews.

[Tender Branson]

Pictures of VdB and Hofer voting:

[Tender Branson]

Turnout data from Vienna looks promising too.

If that holds in the afternoon, we are looking towards 75% turnout Austria-wide I guess.

[Tender Branson]

Vienna-turnout until 2pm is 8% higher than in round 1.

Includes postal ballots, according to my calculation.

[Classic Conservative]

At this point who do you think will win???

[Tender Branson]

Based on the turnout reports that I saw from the states, it likely ends up between 72-76%.

74% seems most likely right now.

Only 2 hours until polls close !