Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Presidential runoff on May 22 ?
#1
Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
#2
Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)
#3
I'd invalidate the ballot
#4
I'd stay home
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)  (Read 285588 times)
rob in cal
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« Reply #825 on: May 22, 2016, 11:25:07 AM »

  I know that there will be a lot of postal ballots from Vienna, but it does seem that even accounting for them voter turnout was on the low side there.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #826 on: May 22, 2016, 11:31:02 AM »

Yet another argument to ban postal/early voting.
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Double Carpet
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« Reply #827 on: May 22, 2016, 11:37:33 AM »

Just NO and Vienna to finish counting now on the official site.

Hofer has a 10K vote lead in OO and 4K in Tirol, are we expecting those two states to flip to VdB once the postals are counted?

Thanks
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ag
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« Reply #828 on: May 22, 2016, 11:49:40 AM »

hoffer at 51.9% on official count.
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Beezer
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« Reply #829 on: May 22, 2016, 11:50:10 AM »

Interesting to see Tyrol possibly wind up in the vdB camp. Interesting because I assume they'd stand to be quite affected by a once again more leftist migrant policy with the Brenner and all. But then again I have no clue whether the state leans left or not...
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Unimog
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« Reply #830 on: May 22, 2016, 11:52:01 AM »

i would assume it will flip Tirol but not Oberösterreich
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Double Carpet
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« Reply #831 on: May 22, 2016, 11:52:47 AM »

Did Hofer and VdB say anything significant when they appeared together just now on ORF?
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Unimog
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« Reply #832 on: May 22, 2016, 11:58:33 AM »

no
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #833 on: May 22, 2016, 11:59:22 AM »

Just 1 town in Lower Austria and 1 precinct in Vienna left to count and we are done for today ...
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bedstuy
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« Reply #834 on: May 22, 2016, 12:01:00 PM »

Just 1 town in Lower Austria and 1 precinct in Vienna left to count and we are done for today ...

Where you would put the percentage chance for each candidate to win?
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Double Carpet
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« Reply #835 on: May 22, 2016, 12:04:55 PM »

NO now complete, Hofer 54.3%, just Alsergrund to come and Vienna is done too.

Tender, what do you think the final result will be once the postals are counted?

ORF has just projected VdB to win by 2208K to 2205K....

Thanks for all the updates!
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #836 on: May 22, 2016, 12:08:03 PM »

Hofer is up by around 4%, so mail ballots would have to break heavily for vdb to win
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Beezer
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« Reply #837 on: May 22, 2016, 12:12:21 PM »

Which they will. Do we already have an accurate # on how many postal ballots are out there?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #838 on: May 22, 2016, 12:13:39 PM »

If Hofer loses on postals I can't imagine how many conspiracies theories will be launched on the right.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #839 on: May 22, 2016, 12:14:32 PM »

If it's a 3.8% lead, how many total votes remain uncounted?
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Bacon King
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« Reply #840 on: May 22, 2016, 12:15:40 PM »

Which they will. Do we already have an accurate # on how many postal ballots are out there?

I've read 850,000 but I don't know if that's accurate
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #841 on: May 22, 2016, 12:20:43 PM »

Guys, now that we have the final precinct result for today, I'll do the math for you:

VdB is down by 144.000 votes today.

There were 885.400 postal ballots requested.

They have ca. a 87% return rate (=770.300 ballots to be counted tomorrow).

2.5-3% will be invalid.

That means ~750.000 ballots will be valid.

VdB needs to win ca. 60% of them to win overall, because he'd net some 150.000 votes.

That's doable.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #842 on: May 22, 2016, 12:22:16 PM »

This could be 50-50 after mail, lol this could be Austria's version of the 2000 election
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #843 on: May 22, 2016, 12:23:06 PM »

This could be 50-50 after mail, lol this could be Austria's version of the 2000 election

Maybe, but I expect VdB to get up to 65% of the postal ballots. He only needs 59.5%
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Bacon King
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« Reply #844 on: May 22, 2016, 12:23:57 PM »

This could be 50-50 after mail, lol this could be Austria's version of the 2000 election

Maybe, but I expect VdB to get up to 65% of the postal ballots. He only needs 59.5%

how have postal ballots gone in the past?
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Beezer
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« Reply #845 on: May 22, 2016, 12:24:10 PM »

What did the postal  ballot data from the first round look like?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #846 on: May 22, 2016, 12:26:18 PM »

If VdB wins the postal vote 65-35, then he'd be ahead 80.000 votes overall.

That's not FL-2000 style ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #847 on: May 22, 2016, 12:26:46 PM »

What did the postal  ballot data from the first round look like?

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at/1604-bw_ov_0.html
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DL
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« Reply #848 on: May 22, 2016, 12:28:08 PM »

What is the theory or explanation for why a VdeB does so much better with postal ballots?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #849 on: May 22, 2016, 12:30:09 PM »

What is the theory or explanation for why a VdeB does so much better with postal ballots?

Postal voters are higher-educated Green, ÖVP and NEOS-types.
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