Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

Judging by vote-transfers from round 1 to round 2, the postals could actually be close enough for a small Hofer-win:

It seems that Hofer got 34% of Griss/SPÖ/ÖVP/Lugner voters today.

If we apply the same 34% for the postals, then Hofer ends up with 41% - which would be enough.

[BundouYMB]

What is the theory or explanation for why a VdeB does so much better with postal ballots?

I can't speak to Austria in particular, but postal ballots in general are usually dominated by "vulnerable" sections of society. i.e. people who work long, strange hours, ailing people, immigrants, disabled people, ect. These are the people who can't get to the polls to vote on election day and these types of demographics tend to vote for the more left-wing candidate.

[Tender Branson]

Interior Minister Sobotka is currently giving a press conference in which he certifies the precinct results for today.

No irregularities, no cry ...

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

What is the theory or explanation for why a VdeB does so much better with postal ballots?

I can't speak to Austria in particular, but postal ballots in general are usually dominated by "vulnerable" sections of society. i.e. people who work long, strange hours, ailing people, immigrants, disabled people, ect. These are the people who can't get to the polls to vote on election day and these types of demographics tend to vote for the more left-wing candidate.

Maybe in America. In Europe they tend to be well-off citizens living abroad, people with high education, and the sort off people who think they're too important to actually go and que at the polling-place at election day. In Sweden for example the Moderates and the Greens are the primary beneficiaries of postal ballots while the Social Democrats tend to fare dreadfully in them. 

[Tender Branson]

Most FPÖ-voters simply have no clue how to request an absentee ballot or that this voting option even exists ...

[Beezer]

Have any absentee ballots been opened yet or are we basing predictions solely on past trends?

[Tender Branson]

Have any absentee ballots been opened yet or are we basing predictions solely on past trends?

No, they all get counted tomorrow afternoon by the district election commissions.

And yes, past trends.

[Bacon King]

Judging by vote-transfers from round 1 to round 2, the postals could actually be close enough for a small Hofer-win:

It seems that Hofer got 34% of Griss/SPÖ/ÖVP/Lugner voters today.

If we apply the same 34% for the postals, then Hofer ends up with 41% - which would be enough.

in this estimate how do you apportion the ~200k second round postal voters who didn't postal vote in the first round

[Tender Branson]

Judging by vote-transfers from round 1 to round 2, the postals could actually be close enough for a small Hofer-win:

It seems that Hofer got 34% of Griss/SPÖ/ÖVP/Lugner voters today.

If we apply the same 34% for the postals, then Hofer ends up with 41% - which would be enough.

in this estimate how do you apportion the ~200k second round postal voters who didn't postal vote in the first round

By the same pattern as the 1st round ballots. But that might be a bad idea, because it's only a guess. VdB should be strongly favoured because of these additional postal voters.

[Beezer]

So presumably if a tightening of the race transpired in the final days of the campaign, the fact that those absentee ballots were sent in quite a while ago could potentially bode well for Hofer? Just spitballing here, but does anybody think Jerusalemgate hurt Hofer? Of course absentee ballots filled out 2 weeks ago wouldn't reflect that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But generally if you fill out a postal ballot you aren't wavering in the slightest.

[Beezer]

True, but in the end we're talking about such an immensely tight race here that anything could tilt the balance.

[Bacon King]

to clarify: absolutely no postal ballots have been counted yet, correct?

[rob in cal]

    Here's a tidy way to look at tomorrow.  VDB will come close to wiping out Hofer's current lead with the postal ballots from Vienna and Voralberg.  Can Hofer hold his own with the rest, 190k of which is from Styria and Carinthia?

[Bacon King]

to clarify: absolutely no postal ballots have been counted yet, correct?

asking because of this:

https://twitter.com/c3o/status/734444612090253312

edit: http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at/1605-bw_ov_0.html

[DavidB.]

Oh wow. If this is true, it wouldn't be enough for VdB.

[rob in cal]

   The instructions on the government website say the postal ballots can be submitted to a precinct on election day, so that would be that 200k figure mentioned, but how do we know they have been counted? I would think they would be kept separate and added to the ballots that came by mail. Just speculating, but I think that's what happens in California.

[Cranberry]

The thing behind this is that you can order, either by mail or via the internet, your Wahlkarte (translated probably best as "ballot"), which you can then either send to your local election authority, which is in the district town, and which is counted tomorrow (so a proper postal ballot); or you could possibly also take the Wahlkarte into your precinct to vote. Statistics are so far only available of those that are requested, tomorrow with the counting then also of those which have in fact been sent in. There is afaik however no way some dude could already now know how many were taken into precincts, as those are not tallied or treated separately.

In fact, if we look at comparison numbers from last elections, 200k of 900k, so 22%, seems extremely unlikely. In the first round, 640k were requested and 540k were sent in - that's 84%, so 16% not sent in - this also includes ones that did not vote at all, got lost etc. which means that we can assume maybe 12% or so went to vote in the precinct. I don't really suspect that this number would have magically doubled now. Secondly, if I already have ordered a postal ballot, I usually don't go to vote in the precinct then when I can do so now from the comforts of my home. Sure, a few people might do that, but I doubt that it's 200.000.

[Omega21]

   The instructions on the government website say the postal ballots can be submitted to a precinct on election day, so that would be that 200k figure mentioned, but how do we know they have been counted? I would think they would be kept separate and added to the ballots that came by mail. Just speculating, but I think that's what happens in California.

,

Österreich (Briefwahl), kumuliertes Ergebnis (117 von 117 Gebieten), vorläufiges Endergebnis inklusive Briefwahlstimmen

Endergebnis inklusive Briefwahlstimmen

I think this means Including Absentee votes, but my German is not that good so i would check with Tender.

[Cranberry]

^ Postal ballots are not counted until tomorrow, so relax, sit back, there's no way to know the end result yet.

[Beezer]

Someone on twitter said that people are able to vote via "absentee ballot" in the "wrong" precinct on election day. Presumably then these 500,000 absentee ballots are not part of the larger pool of "true" absentee ballots...

[Bacon King]

^ Postal ballots are not counted until tomorrow, so relax, sit back, there's no way to know the end result yet.

what are these from?

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at/1605-bw_ov_0.html

[Beezer]

ATV sees Hofer in front. I presume this is their latest projection.

[Sozialliberal]

to clarify: absolutely no postal ballots have been counted yet, correct?

asking because of this:

https://twitter.com/c3o/status/734444612090253312

edit: http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at/1605-bw_ov_0.html

I'm not sure what that is. All postal ballots will be counted tomorrow. It reads "vorläufiges Endergebnis inklusive Briefwahlstimmen" (preliminary final result including postal ballots). Maybe it's a projection?

[Bacon King]

apparently it's probably just test data (though some or saying it's the unreleased postal vote tally). it's inaccessible anywhere on the site without typing in that direct url