Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Sozialliberal]

That sounds likely.

[Omega21]

Here is the awnser from Kurier


Der Wahlkoordinator des Innenministeriums, Robert Stein, bei seiner Lieblingsbeschäftigung: Er erläuterte in der Hofburg im Gespräch mit dem KURIER das Zahlenwerk der spannenden Entscheidung, die uns morgen erwartet: Insgesamt waren 885.000 Wahlkarten beantragt. Es seien aber nur noch 740.000 auszuzählen, diese Differenz entstehe entweder in den Wahllokalen oder es haben sich manche noch überlegt, doch nicht zu wählen. Rund 3 bis 4 Prozent seien bei jeder Wahl wegen Nichtigkeit abzuziehen, weil zum Beispiel eine Unterschrift fehlt, oder ähnliches. Es gehe also noch um rund 700.000 Wahlkarten netto, bei einem Unterschied von derzeit 144.000 Stimmen zwischen Hofer und Van der Bellen.

So tomorrow 700k votes will be counted. Hofer is in lead for 144k votes so Vdb needs to make this up somehow or Hofer will be the winner.

[rob in cal]

    Looks like the ATF projection assumes 700k valid ballots still to be counted, with VDB winning just under 60% of them.

[Bacon King]

Here is the awnser from Kurier


Der Wahlkoordinator des Innenministeriums, Robert Stein, bei seiner Lieblingsbeschäftigung: Er erläuterte in der Hofburg im Gespräch mit dem KURIER das Zahlenwerk der spannenden Entscheidung, die uns morgen erwartet: Insgesamt waren 885.000 Wahlkarten beantragt. Es seien aber nur noch 740.000 auszuzählen, diese Differenz entstehe entweder in den Wahllokalen oder es haben sich manche noch überlegt, doch nicht zu wählen. Rund 3 bis 4 Prozent seien bei jeder Wahl wegen Nichtigkeit abzuziehen, weil zum Beispiel eine Unterschrift fehlt, oder ähnliches. Es gehe also noch um rund 700.000 Wahlkarten netto, bei einem Unterschied von derzeit 144.000 Stimmen zwischen Hofer und Van der Bellen.

So tomorrow 700k votes will be counted. Hofer is in lead for 144k votes so Vdb needs to make this up somehow or Hofer will be the winner.

Thanks for this!

By their numbers it looks like VdB needs ~61% to win

[Omega21]

Here is the awnser from Kurier


Der Wahlkoordinator des Innenministeriums, Robert Stein, bei seiner Lieblingsbeschäftigung: Er erläuterte in der Hofburg im Gespräch mit dem KURIER das Zahlenwerk der spannenden Entscheidung, die uns morgen erwartet: Insgesamt waren 885.000 Wahlkarten beantragt. Es seien aber nur noch 740.000 auszuzählen, diese Differenz entstehe entweder in den Wahllokalen oder es haben sich manche noch überlegt, doch nicht zu wählen. Rund 3 bis 4 Prozent seien bei jeder Wahl wegen Nichtigkeit abzuziehen, weil zum Beispiel eine Unterschrift fehlt, oder ähnliches. Es gehe also noch um rund 700.000 Wahlkarten netto, bei einem Unterschied von derzeit 144.000 Stimmen zwischen Hofer und Van der Bellen.

So tomorrow 700k votes will be counted. Hofer is in lead for 144k votes so Vdb needs to make this up somehow or Hofer will be the winner.

Thanks for this!

By their numbers it looks like VdB needs ~61% to win

Thats right, this could help you also:

Davon entfielen auf die Wahlwerberin und die einzelnen Wahlwerber
Dr. Irmgard Griss   117.323   21,9 %
Ing. Norbert Hofer   136.832   25,6 %
Rudolf Hundstorfer   64.349   12,0 %
Dr. Andreas Khol   57.203   10,7 %
Ing. Richard Lugner   9.025   1,7 %
Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen   150.042   28,1 %

These are the postal votes in first round.

Khol is OVP center, so some of his votes will go to Hofer, Griss is also center-left so some of her votes will also go to Hofer, but she endorsed Vdb so 70+% of her vote goes to Vdb.

Lugners 99% of the vote will go to Hofer and almost all of Rudolf Spo votes will go to Vdb.

Its just a question of how much Hofer gets from Griss-Khol and how many FPO voters in the 2nd round voted via post.

[Cranberry]

^ Postal ballots are not counted until tomorrow, so relax, sit back, there's no way to know the end result yet.

what are these from?

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at/1605-bw_ov_0.html

https://twitter.com/florianklenk/status/734468760774529024

The BMI (Ministry of the Interior) apparently has technical problems - so it doesn't mean anything, don't get too hyped over this

apparently it's probably just test data (though some or saying it's the unreleased postal vote tally). it's inaccessible anywhere on the site without typing in that direct url

Seems unlikely, as per r/Austria - https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CjFcoegXEAEZ1T7.jpg:large

[DavidB.]

Conspiracy theorists will have a field day with that...

[Cranberry]

I can already hear Kickl...

[Beezer]

Somebody get Alex Jones on this.

[rob in cal]

   Do any regions/towns stand out for an unusual performance by the candidates?

[Zanas]

Ok, so Austria is somehow worse than Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie. Appalling... Still think VdB pulls it out, but with no glory whatsoever, and democracy needs to be repealed asap.

[Famous Mortimer]

RT has called it for the Freedom Party.

[Boston Bread]

RT has called it for the Freedom Party.

What do they know about the postal ballot breakdown?

[jaichind]

Map of results (w/o postal vote I assume) I found online

[Lotuslander]

ORF is projecting a minimal 3,000 vote win for VdB after all of the postal ballots have been counted. From afar, my poli instinct also suggests a VdB marginal win as well.

BTW, ORF projects VdB to take 60.8% of the postal ballots v. 39.2% for Hofer:

[adma]

Yeah, looks like just another one of those elections

[Tender Branson]

I estimated that 750K absentee ballots will be counted today, the Interior Ministry says 740K.

That's because I did not take into account the fact that some people requested one but did not mail it back but instead cast their vote in any precint. With an absentee ballot you can vote in every precinct. And this small portion of absentee ballots is already counted on election day with the other votes.

[Pandaguineapig]

I estimated that 750K absentee ballots will be counted today, the Interior Ministry says 740K.

That's because I did not take into account the fact that some people requested one but did not mail it back but instead cast their vote in any precint. With an absentee ballot you can vote in every precinct. And this small portion of absentee ballots is already counted on election day with the other votes.

This means the magic number for vdb is exactly 60%

[Tender Branson]

I estimated that 750K absentee ballots will be counted today, the Interior Ministry says 740K.

That's because I did not take into account the fact that some people requested one but did not mail it back but instead cast their vote in any precint. With an absentee ballot you can vote in every precinct. And this small portion of absentee ballots is already counted on election day with the other votes.

This means the magic number for vdb is exactly 60%

Yepp.

I'm wondering what impact the additional 200k people will have who did not postal vote in round 1.

Like someone said before Hofer could benefit from a higher postal vote because a higher number would usually be less lopsided for the Left ...

Or VdB benefits because of a surge in center-leftist voters ...

[Cranberry]

Do any regions/towns stand out for an unusual performance by the candidates?

Vorarlberg and Western Tyrol (here especially VdB's home region of the Kaunertal, where he won some 80% of the vote in some municipalities) are usually very strong ÖVP-regions, so center-right-ish, but this time voted ~55% Van der Bellen on average (this might be due to the fact that the FPÖ is regularly weakest here out west). Other than that, it's a pretty huge urban/suburban - rural divide, so nothing that was not expected.

[Donnie]

I estimated that 750K absentee ballots will be counted today, the Interior Ministry says 740K.

That's because I did not take into account the fact that some people requested one but did not mail it back but instead cast their vote in any precint. With an absentee ballot you can vote in every precinct. And this small portion of absentee ballots is already counted on election day with the other votes.

This means the magic number for vdb is exactly 60%

Yepp.

I'm wondering what impact the additional 200k people will have who did not postal vote in round 1.

Like someone said before Hofer could benefit from a higher postal vote because a higher number would usually be less lopsided for the Left ...

Or VdB benefits because of a surge in center-leftist voters ...

I am not an expert in Austrian politics but somehow i doubt that in a runoff 50:50 election, one candidate will get over 60% of the mail votes when in the "normal" voting he got 48.1%. IMO the maximum for VdB will be 58% of those votes.  But we will see shortly...

[Tender Branson]

The city of Wels in Upper Austria has released their postal count and it's "only" 58-42 VdB.

Wels was ca. 50-50 yesterday, so if the Austrian postal result is also 58-42, Hofer wins ...

[jaichind]

Any links to the total count which includes election day numbers plus postal votes as they come in ?

[Dan the Roman]

https://www.salzburg.gv.at/20003stat/wahlen/bpw/index.htm#erg.0.0.0.0

This seems to have updated totals for 340K.

[Omega21]

The current state of electoral card counting. 376,623 ballots - or about half - are now counted:

Van der Bellen: 60.7%

Hofer: 39.3%

Vdb needs 60.4

You can flow the count on oe24