Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Cranberry]

Btw it's kind of odd that news was warning Hofer would be the first nasty fascist to come to power since the war. I mean have they forgotten the time Austrians elected a literal nazi war criminal as president lol?

They must have also forgotten then the time then when the UN elected him Secretary General.

On a serious note though, while Waldheim was a horrible being, he was very, err moderated, in outlook and policy when compared to Hofer, not really far from Kohl or Chirac, so the continental Christian-democratic consensus of that time and age. The problem about him was more his past and his lying about the past than his actual policy (not that policy ever mattered when we were electing our President, until the media certainly discovered that that should change this spring) Hofer is obviously one dimension further from the centre.

[rob in cal]

  It would be awesome if VDB would push his support for direct democracy (which both he and Hofer shared apparently) as president and Austria could move closer to the Swiss system.  Then, people could directly vote on key issues and take some of the personal animosities out of the political system. 

[adma]

On a serious note though, while Waldheim was a horrible being, he was very, err moderated, in outlook and policy when compared to Hofer, not really far from Kohl or Chirac, so the continental Christian-democratic consensus of that time and age. The problem about him was more his past and his lying about the past than his actual policy (not that policy ever mattered when we were electing our President, until the media certainly discovered that that should change this spring) Hofer is obviously one dimension further from the centre.

Exactly.  We're talking about *former* vs *active* here.  And Waldheim in power operated as a mainstream continentalist.

But, like it or not, don't gloat about this being a resounding defeat for the far right; at that margin, it's still a scary hair away from its being a "resounding" *victory* for said forces.  (A comparison that comes to mind is Quebec's 1995 separation referendum)

[jaichind]

Looks like the fix is in.

I really doubt it. As much as I tend to back Hofer (or frankly anyone over a Green candidate) I do not see why the system will block his victory.  In fact, having Hofer win might make it more likely that PFO might  implode if he were to mess up.  The Prez in Austria is fairly ceremonial.  If the fix is in it is most more likely they will do it in 2018.  But if Hofer were to narrowly lose  which he did in this case it will most likely energize the PFO vote in 2018 especially if the overall political climate does not improve.

In the same way I back Trump but ideally I want him to lose narrowly to Clinton.  2018 will be a massacre for the Dems in 2018 if Clinton were to win narrowly with no coattails.   

[jeron]

Wonderful news for Austria and Europe. Congrats!

[DavidB.]

In the same way I back Trump but ideally I want him to lose narrowly to Clinton.  2018 will be a massacre for the Dems in 2018 if Clinton were to win narrowly with no coattails.   

Except that in Austria the parliament is the big prize, but in the US the White House is the big prize.

[Pingvin]

Looks like the fix is in.

I really doubt it. As much as I tend to back Hofer (or frankly anyone over a Green candidate) I do not see why the system will block his victory.  In fact, having Hofer win might make it more likely that PFO might  implode if he were to mess up.  The Prez in Austria is fairly ceremonial.  If the fix is in it is most more likely they will do it in 2018.  But if Hofer were to narrowly lose  which he did in this case it will most likely energize the PFO vote in 2018 especially if the overall political climate does not improve.

In the same way I back Trump but ideally I want him to lose narrowly to Clinton.  2018 will be a massacre for the Dems in 2018 if Clinton were to win narrowly with no coattails.  

Well, the energized FPO vote and chancellor Strache in next few years seem like a good chance. We'll see.

[jaichind]

In the same way I back Trump but ideally I want him to lose narrowly to Clinton.  2018 will be a massacre for the Dems in 2018 if Clinton were to win narrowly with no coattails.   

Except that in Austria the parliament is the big prize, but in the US the White House is the big prize.

Yes, but for the policies I care about, mostly spending priorities, the Congressional control is just as importing as Prez.  But yes, for your point is valid in the generic sense.

[Cranberry]

Except an FPÖ victory at the next election would have come even if Hofer won - they would not have had to wait all the time until 2018, he could have simply dismissed the government at any point of his liking, and appoint Strache PM - he would then lack the confidence of parliament obviously, petition the president to dismiss parliament and call new elections - boom you have Chancellor Strache in autumn 2016 or spring 2017.

This Van der Bellen victory now gives us twofold: first, there is a decidedly non-FPÖ person at a position that can reasonably exercise checks and balances against an FPÖ government. Secondly, this seriously undermines Strache's position as the untouched champion of the FPÖ, when you now have with Hofer a person who is undoubtedly more popular and able to reach out to further voter segments. If things turn out well, we could have FPÖ infighting crippling their possible election performance.

[jaichind]

Except an FPÖ victory at the next election would have come even if Hofer won - they would not have had to wait all the time until 2018, he could have simply dismissed the government at any point of his liking, and appoint Strache PM - he would then lack the confidence of parliament obviously, petition the president to dismiss parliament and call new elections - boom you have Chancellor Strache in autumn 2016 or spring 2017.

This Van der Bellen victory now gives us twofold: first, there is a decidedly non-FPÖ person at a position that can reasonably exercise checks and balances against an FPÖ government. Secondly, this seriously undermines Strache's position as the untouched champion of the FPÖ, when you now have with Hofer a person who is undoubtedly more popular and able to reach out to further voter segments. If things turn out well, we could have FPÖ infighting crippling their possible election performance.

I obviously do not know well the internal political dynamics of Austria.  it just seems to me that it is easy for a Prez Hofer to overplay his hand, especially during a period of a Kern honeymoon and really lead to an implosion of PFO support as well as continue the anti-PFO polarization.   Kern/Van der Bellen, it seems to me, can be a real lightening rod for political discontent if things do not go well either at the economic level of with problems with immigration policy.  Had Hofer been elected he would have, given his aggressive rhetoric, to own the policy results as well or just overplay his hand leading to PFO getting crushed in any midterm election.   To be fair this is generic conjecture and could very likely not fit the Austrian circumstances.

[Dutch Conservative]

Sad day for Austria, sad day for Europe. The fearmongering has won again. But i'm optimistic: the people of Europe are awakening. Onwards to the Brexit and then hopefully: the collapse of the EU-Leviathan.

[ag]

Another bullet dodged. No time for celebrating, but a sigh of relief can be breathed: for the moment.

[Tender Branson]

Even though it was relatively close, the FPÖ (better said their General Secretary Kickl) said that they will not challenge the vote count in court. Which of course they could, but there were virtually no irregularities reported. Only Innsbruck had to recount their postal ballots for a 2nd time, because a counter at the election commission made an error.

[Tender Branson]

Maybe it was Faymann with his resignation (without realizing the consequences, or did he ?) who saved Austria from a President Hofer ...

Probably the last great act of a failed man.

[BundouYMB]

Another bullet dodged. No time for celebrating, but a sign of relief can be breathed: for the moment.

It says something about the state of Austria rn when a fascist winning "only" 49.7% of the vote is considered dodging the bullet.

[ag]

Another bullet dodged. No time for celebrating, but a sign of relief can be breathed: for the moment.

It says something about the state of Austria rn when a fascist winning "only" 49.7% of the vote is considered dodging the bullet.

I would take 49.7% for Hitler back in 1932 if the result were him staying out of the government forever.

[Tender Branson]

VdB already gave a speech outdoor, somewhere in Vienna:

[Cassius]

Lol at Hofer being a 'fascist'.

Anyway, whilst he lost, it's still a pretty good result for the party regardless - having come so close to beating a candidate who was backed by most of the Austrian political establishment and was heavily favoured to win the election until relatively recently. Hopefully SPOVP will continue to implode (in a similar manner to most other like arrangements across Europe) and we can finally begin to push people like Van Der Bellen away from the levers of power for good.

[Nortexius]

Do the people in this thread calling Hofer a "fascist" seriously believe that Hofer wants to abolish democracy? As far as i know that's a prerequisite of fascism.

[Tender Branson]

Ahhh, such beautiful maps:

[Dutch Conservative]

Lol at Hofer being a 'fascist'.

Anyway, whilst he lost, it's still a pretty good result for the party regardless - having come so close to beating a candidate who was backed by most of the Austrian political establishment and was heavily favoured to win the election until relatively recently. Hopefully SPOVP will continue to implode (in a similar manner to most other like arrangements across Europe) and we can finally begin to push people like Van Der Bellen away from the levers of power for good.

Hear, hear, my hope is on the Britons!

[Omega21]

I would ask for the Left Lefties on the forum to stop calling Hofer a fascist, please give me any kind of proof and then we will share the same opinion.

I didnt like Vdb but the only good candidate is the one which is elected by the people, in this case it is Vdb.

People need to respect any candidate, Hofer has 49.6% of Austrian votes and you can not call half of your country fascists, especially since Hofer pushes for direct democracy and has never been linked to any Far-Right groups, past or present.

[DavidB.]

Do the people in this thread calling Hofer a "fascist" seriously believe that Hofer wants to abolish democracy? As far as i know that's a prerequisite of fascism.

Nah, it's just a buzzword.

Anyway, I imagine there are many people who now voted for the FPÖ for the first time. The mental "threshold" for them to do so in the next parliamentary election might be substantially lower than before (especially if VdB turns out to be a terrible anti-democrat). That's good.

[Tender Branson]

Atlas FORUM posters voted exactly like Vienna:

Poll on top of the page (turnout was 88 votes, of which 85 were valid): 63.5% VdB, 36.5% Hofer

Vienna: 63.3% VdB, 36.7% Hofer

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

VdB already gave a speech outdoor, somewhere in Vienna:

Obama?