Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[rob in cal]

  I wonder if the relatively large Jewish community in Hungary supports Orban's efforts of not taking any of the migrants, or how the smaller Jewish communities of other eastern European countries feel about their governments being in favor of little or no migrant migration to their countries.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is there any chance of early elections due to the departure of Faymann, or will they be held off too see if the FPO surge starts to slither down a bit?

[ag]

But let's not "hijack" this thread too much anymore

In fact, will treat any continuation as an invitation to join in. And I am not smiling.

Hey ag! Do you like me being back? Did you take your sedatives today?

I am in full unmitigated rage, barely controlled by the need to grade term papers and yell at students caught cheating. Once I am done with making tall young guys and pretty girls crying in my office, I will be in top shape. Take your precautions.

[DavidB.]

 I wonder if the relatively large Jewish community in Hungary supports Orban's efforts of not taking any of the migrants, or how the smaller Jewish communities of other eastern European countries feel about their governments being in favor of little or no migrant migration to their countries.

Jews in Hungary generally do not support Orbán but it has not much to do with migrants and everything with his efforts to rebrand Hungary into a "Christian national" state, which happens to be a term that was used in an antisemitic fashion before WWII. His party has too many dogwhistling antisemites, and Fidesz shifting the political discourse to the right has created space for Jobbik to operate, which are all things Jews do not like. Moreover, many Jews are quite internationally oriented and find themselves in spheres in society that were not likely to support Fidesz to begin with.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

 I wonder if the relatively large Jewish community in Hungary supports Orban's efforts of not taking any of the migrants, or how the smaller Jewish communities of other eastern European countries feel about their governments being in favor of little or no migrant migration to their countries.

Eastern European Jews have got bigger problems to worry about than the relatively small amount of refugees being housed. They're perfectly able to homegrown anti-Semitism.

[ag]

Considering the attitudes of European Christians, European Muslims are the least of the problems for the European Jews

[aross]

Is there any chance of early elections due to the departure of Faymann, or will they be held off too see if the FPO surge starts to slither down a bit?

Basically no way. Team Proporz may be going down together, but they're not stupid enough to scuttle themselves yet.

Speaking of which, Gallup/Österreich (first poll under Kern):



First poll with the SPÖ in second for a while. Only 33% want new elections, 53% are opposed.

[DavidB.]

Considering the attitudes of European Christians, European Muslims are the least of the problems for the European Jews

If you were talking about Eastern European Christians, you were right.

[DavidB.]

Basically no way. Team Proporz may be going down together, but they're not stupid enough to scuttle themselves yet.

Speaking of which, Gallup/Österreich (first poll under Kern):



First poll with the SPÖ in second for a while. Only 33% want new elections, 53% are opposed.

Interesting how "trivial events" such as state elections in two of the most populated states and presidential elections almost do not affect voting intentions.

What are the chances that the ÖVP would prefer to cooperate with the SPÖ and the Greens instead of with the FPÖ?

[windjammer]

Non natives a treat to jews???

Toulouse? Brussels? Copenhagen? Hypercacher? Ilan Halimi? And then all these "small", "insignificant" acts of violence and threats that go unnoticed for the general public.

Toulouse? You mean Mohammed Merah?
It happened in 2012 much before the refugee crisis. And Mohammed Merah wasn't even a refugee. He was french.
And regarding Bruxelles, same thing, it has been perpetuated by people born in Belgium, not by Syrian refugees.

I'm pretty sure David knows that as much as we do. Still, he does have a point - there is a considerable amount of anti-semitism present in modern Europe, and this is anti-semitism is present to a larger amount among groups with a migrant background than among those of "native population", to use a term I do not quite like myself but that is probably understood. That it is not to say that this is only limited to people with migrant backgrounds, far from it actually, nor that this migrant background is the direct reason for its manifestation - in fact, this has far more to do with a certain socio-economic background, which people with a migrant background are sadly far too often trapped in in modern European society (there is I guess no word to better sum up this socio-economic background than Banlieue). But the fact is that there is a problem with anti-semitism, one the left or "established" parties are quite often a bit too quick to dismiss as "non-significant" or even petty, often in a false fear of being labeled anti-immigrant or racist or whatnot. This has one sad result - it allows far right parties, be it FN or PVV or DFP or FPÖ, to capitalise on this issue, and put up a correlation with islamphobia and anti-immigrant sentiments that, in my eyes, should not exist.

So to sum up, I agree with David that there is an issue with anti-semitism, that this is often related with migrant communities, and that this issue is not treated accordingly by leftist and established parties. I believe this needs to be adressed, also by leftist and established parties, but not by putting the blame on migrant communities such as far right parties currently do, but by actively combating and showing absolutely no tolerance to anti-semitism wherever it may arise, if among people with migrant background or among "native" Europeans.

Just to be clear about something,
Yes, antisemitism is a problem and we must fight it like we must fight every other form of xenophobia, never denied that.
But the cause of antisemitism isn't the growing number of refugees, and I don't think it's fair to hold them responsible for something they never did.

And David, I know you mean well, so that's why I will take time to answer you because you're not a far-right crazy idiot and that you're really an intelligent person.
Believe me, I understand that you think that way. With all this antisemistism, and considering you're yourself a devoted jew, this is normal you feel threatened and don't feel secured at all. But this is not by doing that, stopping immigration because of fear of muslims that will make things better. It will make things much worse. If people treat muslims as delinquent, this is the best way to make sure some of them end up being manipulated by antisemitic persons. If you have no expectation for someone and treat him as a delinquent, yes, he might become a delinquent because of that.

And Dutch conservative, I live in France and I am currently studying in a town with a high population of people being muslims, I enjoy it quite a bit and I never have had any problems with any of them

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Ahhh, such beautiful maps:

How similar/different is this from a normal 50-50 left-right map?

This is the lady close presidential election in 2004:

[ag]

Considering the attitudes of European Christians, European Muslims are the least of the problems for the European Jews

If you were talking about Eastern European Christians, you were right.

I am even equally scared of the Wessies.

That old Armenian guy, who, on his deathbed, told his children to take care of the Jews, was a wise man.

[swl]

first, there is a decidedly non-FPÖ person at a position that can reasonably exercise checks and balances against an FPÖ government.

This. In case of FPO-led government from 2018 onwards (which seems very possible), at least they would have to deal with a president from the opposition.

[DavidB.]

What makes the West and Eastern Upper Austria more inclined to vote for VdB than other rural areas?

[President Pepe]

Even though Hofer lost, it is historical event that a anti-immigration candidate came that close to victory in a Western European Nation. Unfortunately Vander Bellen can do a lot of damage in the next 6 years. Austria is crucial because it is the gateway to Northern Europe, where most migrants are headed. Austria closed the Brenner Pass but once Vander Bellen is in office he will keep it open and the tide of migrants will continue until Austria is ruined by the time there is anther election. Last year Austria  took in 80 thousand migrants out of a population of 8 million. That would be the equivalent of the United States taking in 3-4 million migrants.

[Kingpoleon]

Even though Hofer lost, it is historical event that a anti-immigration candidate came that close to victory in a Western European Nation. Unfortunately Vander Bellen can do a lot of damage in the next 6 years. Austria is crucial because it is the gateway to Northern Europe, where most migrants are headed. Austria closed the Brenner Pass but once Vander Bellen is in office he will keep it open and the tide of migrants will continue until Austria is ruined by the time there is anther election. Last year Austria  took in 80 thousand migrants out of a population of 8 million. That would be the equivalent of the United States taking in 3-4 million migrants.

The U. S. takes in about 5.5 million immigrants yearly on a regular basis. 1.1 million became permanent residents in fiscal year 2011 according to Poliifact. 4.4 million come in on a long term temporary basis. Again, this is just legally.

https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/ni_fr_2010.pdf
http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2012/jun/20/marco-rubio/marco-rubio-says-us-admits-1-million-immigrants-ye/

On the politifact page, the fourth and fifth paragraphs cite 4.4 and 1.1. The DHS table points out about 35 million people visit for pleasure and about 5 million for business.

[DL]

Even though Hofer lost, it is historical event that a anti-immigration candidate came that close to victory in a Western European Nation. Unfortunately Vander Bellen can do a lot of damage in the next 6 years. Austria is crucial because it is the gateway to Northern Europe, where most migrants are headed. Austria closed the Brenner Pass but once Vander Bellen is in office he will keep it open and the tide of migrants will continue until Austria is ruined by the time there is anther election. Last year Austria  took in 80 thousand migrants out of a population of 8 million. That would be the equivalent of the United States taking in 3-4 million migrants.

Do you realize that the President of Austria is a ceremonial position? Van der bellen does not have the power to do any of those things even if he  any d to...though I wish he could!

[Omega21]

Considering the attitudes of European Christians, European Muslims are the least of the problems for the European Jews

If you were talking about Eastern European Christians, you were right.

Man this offends me, before WW2 my city had a sizeable Jewish population and you can thank the NDH (Croatian Nazi puppet state) for the extermination of Jews and my grandparents (who were Christian orthodox) from my city.

I live in the Serbian part of Bosnia btw.

[Hash]

This thread is getting horrible. Keep it on topic or it'll be locked until people cool down and the random trolls go back to their caves.

[DavidB.]

Man this offends me, before WW2 my city had a sizeable Jewish population and you can thank the NDH (Croatian Nazi puppet state) for the extermination of Jews and my grandparents (who were Christian orthodox) from my city.

I live in the Serbian part of Bosnia btw.

Of course it was a generalization. Still, ag's point is true in the sense that Christian antisemitism is still rather widespread in many Eastern European countries, and that this is a bigger problem for Jewish communities than Muslim antisemitism (although that would perhaps change if you'd take in migrants too... but they don't even want that). It obviously doesn't mean that all Eastern European Christians are antisemites. Personally, I like Eastern Europe a lot. I will visit Belgrade and Budapest this summer

This thread is getting horrible. Keep it on topic or it'll be locked until people cool down and the random trolls go back to their caves.

Oh, sorry. Yes, let's get back on topic. I still had this question:

What makes the West and Eastern Upper Austria more inclined to vote for VdB than other rural areas?

[ag]

This thread is getting horrible. Keep it on topic or it'll be locked until people cool down and the random trolls go back to their caves.

Can we discuss VdB's research papers here? Would it be on topic? I am still shocked nobody paid attention to the Turkish angle in his bio

[rob in cal]

  Just read  about the background of VDB and his family history in an article in Der Standard.  His Estonian citizen parents (father of Dutch background I think?) were able to flee Estonia before the Soviets got them in 1940, to the safety (ironic isn't that) of German ruled Austria, and then fled the Red Army again in 45 to Voralberg.  His biography would actually be a nice one for someone on the right of the political spectrum, refugees from Stalin, prominent family in Estonia etc.  I must say I like him more now after reading about this background.

[Cranberry]

What makes the West and Eastern Upper Austria more inclined to vote for VdB than other rural areas?

Very simplistically, those are the three states that are doing best - OÖ, Tirol, Vorarlberg all have unemployment rates that are 3 points lower than the Austrian average, while having the strongest economic growth. Eastern Upper Austria is furthermore also Linz suburbia (the second biggest metropolitan area in Austria), while parts of Southern Upper Austria are ancestral SPÖ / industrial and mining territory, that has managed the transition pretty well and is doing very good (tourism, some light mining and industry, being close to the big cities of Linz and Salzburg) economically. Interestingly, if you cross the border just southeast into Styria, you have a region that was similar to Southern OÖ until a few years ago, and that used to vote similar too, but that has not managed the transition at all, and is a region in strong decline by now - which is why they are voting strongly FPÖ.

In the case of Tirol (especially Western Tirol) and Vorarlberg also comes the point that, due to us being so far from Vienna (Zürich, Milan, Munich and even Paris are all actually closer than Vienna from where I live), the area as a whole is very much interconnected with the surrounding countries, Italy and Germany most of all, but also Switzerland and Liechtenstein in the case of Vorarlberg and some Tyrolean valleys, so very much profiting from the EU and European integration, more so than probably any other region in Austria (notice how this is directly correlating with the point above about those being the best-doing regions). This includes tourism, but also the service industry as a whole, and trade and commerce in general.

The FPÖ also was and his historically weak in my area, simply because the typical FPÖ voter doesn't exist here as there is no (declining) industry or big urban areas.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If 16 year olds didn't have the vote would Hofer have won?

[DavidB.]

What makes the West and Eastern Upper Austria more inclined to vote for VdB than other rural areas?

Very simplistically, those are the three states that are doing best - OÖ, Tirol, Vorarlberg all have unemployment rates that are 3 points lower than the Austrian average, while having the strongest economic growth. Eastern Upper Austria is furthermore also Linz suburbia (the second biggest metropolitan area in Austria), while parts of Southern Upper Austria are ancestral SPÖ / industrial and mining territory, that has managed the transition pretty well and is doing very good (tourism, some light mining and industry, being close to the big cities of Linz and Salzburg) economically. Interestingly, if you cross the border just southeast into Styria, you have a region that was similar to Southern OÖ until a few years ago, and that used to vote similar too, but that has not managed the transition at all, and is a region in strong decline by now - which is why they are voting strongly FPÖ.

In the case of Tirol (especially Western Tirol) and Vorarlberg also comes the point that, due to us being so far from Vienna (Zürich, Milan, Munich and even Paris are all actually closer than Vienna from where I live), the area as a whole is very much interconnected with the surrounding countries, Italy and Germany most of all, but also Switzerland and Liechtenstein in the case of Vorarlberg and some Tyrolean valleys, so very much profiting from the EU and European integration, more so than probably any other region in Austria (notice how this is directly correlating with the point above about those being the best-doing regions). This includes tourism, but also the service industry as a whole, and trade and commerce in general.

The FPÖ also was and his historically weak in my area, simply because the typical FPÖ voter doesn't exist here as there is no (declining) industry or big urban areas.

Thanks for your detailed answer! Makes much sense to me.