Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Cranberry]

If 16 year olds didn't have the vote would Hofer have won?

ORF.at has motives plus demographic data here (obviously in German; scroll down to "Wahlverhalten nach Alter" (fourth-to-last) or "Wahlverhalten nach Alter und Geschlecht" (third-to-last)), which tells us Van der Bellen won under-29s by 54%. While that does not say us anything specifically about 16-18-year olds, we can probably assume they voted as under-29s in general, so given the extreme closeness of the race, yes, it could very well be.

[Zanas]

If 16 year olds didn't have the vote would Hofer have won?

ORF.at has motives plus demographic data here (obviously in German; scroll down to "Wahlverhalten nach Alter" (fourth-to-last) or "Wahlverhalten nach Alter und Geschlecht" (third-to-last)), which tells us Van der Bellen won under-29s by 54%. While that does not say us anything specifically about 16-18-year olds, we can probably assume they voted as under-29s in general, so given the extreme closeness of the race, yes, it could very well be.

I wouldn't be so sure. Green leaning often is correlated with college education level. 16-18 would not yet be affected by this culture, and could still be a bit more of the rebellious nihilist sort, hence tilt a bit more FPÖ. Heck at 16 I was a Proudhonist, and by 24 I was a somewhat leftist social-democrat. (I'm back to being some kind of an anarchist, but for other reasons )

[Hnv1]

Am I the only one seeing a problem with a party named the NEOs? or that term doesn't hold the neo-nazi meaning in Austria?

[Zanas]

Am I the only one seeing a problem with a party named the NEOs? or that term doesn't hold the neo-nazi meaning in Austria?

I think we discussed it back when it was founded. The point was : very few people actually think of neo-Nazis when reading NEOS, in Austria or elsewhere, except one particular place or country, but I cannot recall which. Maybe yours.

[ag]

  Just read  about the background of VDB and his family history in an article in Der Standard.  His Estonian citizen parents (father of Dutch background I think?) were able to flee Estonia before the Soviets got them in 1940, to the safety (ironic isn't that) of German ruled Austria, and then fled the Red Army again in 45 to Voralberg.  His biography would actually be a nice one for someone on the right of the political spectrum, refugees from Stalin, prominent family in Estonia etc.  I must say I like him more now after reading about this background.

Father of Russian Dutch background!

[DavidB.]

Am I the only one seeing a problem with a party named the NEOs? or that term doesn't hold the neo-nazi meaning in Austria?

lol, I asked this before. This has the same connotation in the Netherlands as for you, but apparently not in Austria.

[Cranberry]

Am I the only one seeing a problem with a party named the NEOs? or that term doesn't hold the neo-nazi meaning in Austria?

lol, I asked this before. This has the same connotation in the Netherlands as for you, but apparently not in Austria.

If anything, it makes me think of neo-liberal, which is also far closer to their ideology than neo-nazism. But no, I've actually never thought of that before you brought it up.

[rob in cal]

    Did VDB discuss his refugee heritage much in the campaign?  I could see how that would have had some poignancy since the current migrant/refugee situation was a big issue in the campaign?
Also, has he ever said whether his family, or at least his father, felt any danger in the immediate aftermath of the war that they would be turned over to the Soviets as part of Operation Keelhaul?
Legally they wouldn't have been in danger of being so, as his father wasn't a Soviet citizen by 1939, but in the confusion and uncertainty of those months, there must have been some uncertainty I would think. 

[Tender Branson]

Some of my Hofer-voting co-workers were lamenting their loss the whole day, which was really annoying.

How everything was rigged and faked and how VdB is such an unlikeable asshole etc. etc.

[ag]

   Did VDB discuss his refugee heritage much in the campaign?  I could see how that would have had some poignancy since the current migrant/refugee situation was a big issue in the campaign?
Also, has he ever said whether his family, or at least his father, felt any danger in the immediate aftermath of the war that they would be turned over to the Soviets as part of Operation Keelhaul?
Legally they wouldn't have been in danger of being so, as his father wasn't a Soviet citizen by 1939, but in the confusion and uncertainty of those months, there must have been some uncertainty I would think.  

Estonia had been annexed, and both parents had Estonian citizenship, I believe. So, in fact, they were "Soviet" "citizens".

[DL]

Some of my Hofer-voting co-workers were lamenting their loss the whole day, which was really annoying.

How everything was rigged and faked and how VdB is such an unlikeable asshole etc. etc.

The world's smallest violin is playing in sympathy....

[Sozialliberal]

I'm glad that Van der Bellen has won. I would have been a Griss voter in the first round, and wasn't really enthusiastic about Van der Bellen. However, I quite liked his first speech as president. So I translated it.


A shortened/tightened translation of Van der Bellen's first speech as president

Austria has experienced restless hours. The election result probably hasn't left anyone in Austria cold. It's a great responsibility for me as the future president but also for Mr Hofer. I think that both of us (Hofer and I) respect the voters' decision. I congratulate Mr Hofer for his very dedicated election campaign, and express my gratitude to all people who have voted in the election, especially those who have voted for me. I thank you for your trust.

Much has been talked about opened-up rifts. I don't want to dramatize it. These rifts have already existed for a longer time. Maybe we didn't pay close enough attention. However, in the last months many people have discussed or even quarrelled with one another, cut across all occupations, classes and families. I don't think that's a bad sign either. It's a good sign – the citizens are not indifferent to politics, quite the contrary. They want to actively help shape. Therefore we should also direct our attention to the politicization, the high turnout. That's a great sign.

What matters now is that we learn from the experiences of the last months. Many in this country apparently feel like they're not really seen and heard. We'll need a different policy – one that isn't occupied with politics itself but with the the real fears, also with the anger. Listening – that is also a double-edged matter: When I listen to someone, I can expect that they listen to me, too.

My campaign was about putting the things that unite us before the things that separate us – despite the variety of people and interests. I learnt that people can be very different and still treat one another respectfully already during my childhood in Kaunertal.

I want to be a constructive partner of the federal government, so that we'll be able to say in six years; as many people as possible should say: "Yes, things are going well for me, maybe better. My children have a good future." As many people in Austria as possible should be able to say: "My view of the future is full of confidence, full of hope."

I'll respresent Austria in the world and seek the things that unite us at home. I'll be a non-partisan president for all people in this country. That requires suspending my membership of the Greens from today on.

I'll try everything to earn the trust of Norbert Hofer's voters, too. I'll work exclusively to the best of my knowledge and in all conscience, and regard the well-being of Austria as the supreme principle of action. Austria is a wonderful country that has and will achieve great things.

A comment on the close result: You can see it this way: That's a symbol that couldn't speak any more clearly to us. There has been much talk about dividing lines; left and right, town and country, above and below, old and young – but you can look at the tie in this way: There are two halves that make up Austria. Both are equally important. I could say: You are just as important as me. I am just as important as you. Together we amount to this beautiful Austria.

[rob in cal]

     That is a nice speech.  I like how he calls his victory a tie, acknowledging that basically half the country voted for Hofer.  So often politicians forget that while they've been elected, often giant percentages of people voted for someone else.

[Bacon King]

Sad day for Austria, sad day for Europe. The fearmongering has won again.

the fearmongering lost tho

[DavidB.]

Great speech.

[DL]

     That is a nice speech.  I like how he calls his victory a tie, acknowledging that basically half the country voted for Hofer.  So often politicians forget that while they've been elected, often giant percentages of people voted for someone else.

Agreed but i think you have to remember that this was not an election to choose a head of government. This was an election to choose a ceremonial President. It would be like Canada electing a Governor General or Great Britain electing a successor to Queen Elizabeth for a 6 year term. As I understand it, the role of the President in Austrian politics is to be non-partisan and rise above the fray and cut ribbons etc... so of course he will try to be all about reconciliation.

[Omega21]

Are there any elections before 2018?

[Tender Branson]

Are there any elections before 2018?

Only non-important ones. Such as the Burgenland municipal elections, or a few bigger cities in Lower Austria. The only one of interest is the Graz municipal election.

Plus, there could be early parliamentary elections next year.

[Tender Branson]

There have been some reports from the media and FPÖ people of irregularities, which could be a reason to contest the election in court.

For example, the official election results page lists a turnout of 147% for Waidhofen/Ybbs (a city in Lower Austria).

But according to the BMI, this is only a publishing error which will be corrected with the final results on June 1. Turnout was only 79% there. Of course this will lower VdB's national margin a bit. Also, there was a precinct in Linz (the capital of Upper Austria) with a 570% turnout. Also a publishing error, because they reported all the postal ballots from the city, together with regular votes from that small precinct.

Still, the FPÖ has asked experts to compile cases or possible irregularities so that they can file a challenge to the election result later ... maybe.

[Tender Branson]

4 more possible cases of irregularities out of Carinthia:

http://derstandard.at/2000037619120/Fischer-hofft-auf-Rueckkehr-zu-demokratischen-Normalzustand

These cases have nothing to do with wrong votes, but with the procedure of how the postal ballots were counted in 4 districts: Postal ballots are only allowed to be opened and counted on Monday after the election, but the 4 districts already opened the absentee ballots on Sunday.

The FPÖ filed a complaint, as well as the Austrian federal election commission.

[DL]

But Carinthia is an FPO stronghold - so if those votes were theoreticaly disqualified wouldnt it only give Van der Bellen an even bigger margin?

[Omega21]

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Van-der-Bellen-Kein-Kanzler-Strache/236985180

Vdb officially (as president) confirms he would not swear in a FPO goverment.

2017/2018 Should be a fun year for Austria..

[rob in cal]

   In looking over the Vienna results is there anything special about the Neubau, Mariahelfer and Josephstadt districts that make them such a VDB stronghold?  He won them about 80% with a big voter turnout.  They alone accounted for a 25,000 vote victory margin, accounting for most of his overall Austria victory margin.

[rob in cal]

   Did Hofer ever say he wouldn't swear in a Red Green coalition if they had a parliamentary majority?

[ag]

  In looking over the Vienna results is there anything special about the Neubau, Mariahelfer and Josephstadt districts that make them such a VDB stronghold?  He won them about 80% with a big voter turnout.  They alone accounted for a 25,000 vote victory margin, accounting for most of his overall Austria victory margin.

Great parts of town to stay if you visit Vienna   I chose in Josephstadt when I went to Vienna, actually