Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[aross]

   In looking over the Vienna results is there anything special about the Neubau, Mariahelfer and Josephstadt districts that make them such a VDB stronghold?  He won them about 80% with a big voter turnout.  They alone accounted for a 25,000 vote victory margin, accounting for most of his overall Austria victory margin.

Bobos, en masse.
(Somewhat less so in Josefstadt, actually, it is more old-school well-off, but the difference between the two is increasingly disappearing.)

[aross]

Hajek/Kurier:


(@DavidB: You will note this pollster has somewhat higher fluctuations.)

[Tender Branson]

But Carinthia is an FPO stronghold - so if those votes were theoreticaly disqualified wouldnt it only give Van der Bellen an even bigger margin?

It's extremely unlikely that these votes will be disqualified.

As I've said before, it's a procedural problem - not one that impacted how many votes were counted. The number of votes counted is accurate in all the cases that were mentioned by the media. In the 4 Carinthia districts, the postal ballots were *allegedly* opened by the district election commission already on Sunday, when in fact the election law says that they can only be opened at 9am on Monday after the election. But here's the thing: All election commission members signed that the vote count started at 9am on Monday, and not on Sunday. Even the FPÖ- and Green-members of the election commission signed it - in all 4 districts. Usually, these accusations often come from members of the defeated party, even when there's no real reason to contest the election. In these cases however, the Austrian Election Commission itself launched the investigation, which the FPÖ supports. But: this still means all the postal ballots were counted accurately and the numbers posted are 100% valid.

Parties/candidates have until June 8 to collect possible cases of irregularities and submit them to the Constitutional Court for a challenge.

But the CC only rules for an election challenge if the presented cases would alter the overall election result in a way that the other candidate could win ...

[Tender Branson]

  In looking over the Vienna results is there anything special about the Neubau, Mariahilfer and Josefstadt districts that make them such a VDB stronghold?  He won them about 80% with a big voter turnout.  They alone accounted for a 25,000 vote victory margin, accounting for most of his overall Austria victory margin.

Students, more students and even more students. Plus well-off hipsters and well-off people with a migration background. All typical arch left-leftists ...

[Tender Branson]

  Did Hofer ever say he wouldn't swear in a Red Green coalition if they had a parliamentary majority?

Hofer said in the TV debates that he'd swear in an absolute-majority Green-government, even if he doesn't agree with that government ideologically ...

[Tender Branson]

Pretty popular right now on Social Media (among the "other 49.7%" of Austria):

[rob in cal]

    Is this the first nationwide election in Europe where the clearly identified "right-wing" candidate won such a titantic majority among blue collar workers, over a clearly identified "left-wing" candidate. I believe it was 86-14.  The FPO seems to be developing a strong base among the manual working class, reshaping the old historical idea that the working class=left-wing ideology.  Not the left-wing of the 21st century apparently in Austria at any rate.

[Tender Branson]

   Is this the first nationwide election in Europe where the clearly identified "right-wing" candidate won such a titantic majority among blue collar workers, over a clearly identified "left-wing" candidate. I believe it was 86-14.  The FPO seems to be developing a strong base among the manual working class, reshaping the old historical idea that the working class=left-wing ideology.  Not the left-wing of the 21st century apparently in Austria at any rate.

That's not a surprise: The FPÖ refers to itself as the "new Labour Party" and they even have/had "FPÖ - The Social Homeland Party" on every campaign poster.

Plus: many blue-collar workers are afraid of losing their jobs to cheap foreign workers, a problem which exists and which the SPÖ failed to solve in recent years/decades (especially with their open-door immigration policies).

[rob in cal]

Right, also Tender the number of non-migration background Austrian workers backing Hofer must have been higher, as workers with a migration background, whatever number that is, would likely not have backed Hofer as highly.

[Tender Branson]

Right, also Tender the number of non-migration background Austrian workers backing Hofer must have been higher, as workers with a migration background, whatever number that is, would likely not have backed Hofer as highly.

Probably, but A) even blue-collar workers with a migration background these days are afraid of their jobs being taken by other foreigners. And B) blue-collar workers are a declining segment of the Austrian labour force: only 20%, while 75% work in the tertiary/services sections. Which means the exit polls are based on a small sub-sample.

[Tender Branson]

Hofer and VdB strength by town:

[Tender Branson]

According to the SORA/ORF "exit poll", more than 3/4 VdB voters said that the recent changes in government (Faymann-resignation, new SPÖ-Chancellor, new SPÖ-cabinet members) will improve government work in the future.

What this means: If Faymann did not step down before the election, we'd have a President Hofer now, because some centrist VdB-voters would have voted Hofer or simply stayed home - which would have allowed Hofer to win.

VdB can send some flowers to Faymann and Kern.

[Tender Branson]

First Gallup poll after the Presidential election shows a small Kern-bounce for the SPÖ, just like the other poll that was posted above:

[Beezer]

Where exactly can we find the exit poll data on how working class voters decided?

[Tender Branson]

Where exactly can we find the exit poll data on how working class voters decided?

Page 13:

http://www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2016_BP-Stichwahl_Grafiken-Wahltagsbefragung.pdf

Btw: It's not an exit poll, it's an election weekend telephone survey of Austrian voters. Exit polls do not exist in Austria.

[Beezer]

Thanks.

[Tender Branson]

I've created an Excel-chart for some calculations ...

Even though 68/117 districts voted for Hofer - only 3 had a 50%+ Hofer share among all eligible voters.

Those 3 are Oberwart, Jennersdorf and Hartberg-Fürstenfeld.

On the other hand, Vienna-Neubau only had 14.6% of its eligible voters voting for Hofer.

[Tender Branson]

Also:

In the 68 districts which voted for Hofer, 4.2% of all ballots were invalid.

In the 49 districts which voted for VdB, 2.7% of all ballots were invalid.

[Tender Branson]

Results based on the eligible voting population (6.383 million):

35.3% VdB
34.8% Hofer
  2.6% invalid ballots
27.3% non-voters

[Tender Branson]

The final results on June 1 will have the corrected results for Waidhofen/Ybbs, which falsely reported a 147% turnout on the government results page. The actual results are available on their city page.

I already did the calculations on how it changes the Austrian result as a whole (and it virtually doesn't change anything):

VdB goes from 50.346% to 50.345%

Turnout went from 72.75% to 72.65%

[DavidB.]

Any data on voters with a Yugoslavian background?

[Tender Branson]

Any data on voters with a Yugoslavian background?

Nope.

SORA/ORF didn't even have a breakdown for migration background this time.

[ag]

Any data on voters with a Yugoslavian background?

Serbs: 99.99999999% Hofer

Seriously though, Serbs probably voted 65+% for Hofer.

A lot of Serbs are Blue collar workers, almost all I know who are living in Austria are.


Plus we Serbs had a bad time with Islamisation (15-20 Century) so many don't like the rapid Islamisation of Austria. (Christians drifting away from religion, a bit like me, while Muslims only grow in numbers)

For example in Germany this is the new Kinder Chocolate box (not that I mind these children's faces on the box, but I think the Natives should always be the largest people group, which in a 100 years is not looking likely.):

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/05/25/99057850_Packages_of_a_popular_chocolate_bar_with_childhood_pictures_of_German_national_soccer_playe-large_trans++eo_i_u9APj8RuoebjoAHt0k9u7HhRJvuo-ZLenGRumA.jpg

I'm just using this to give an example of the changes in the population.

Wonder if there will be any real Austrians and Germans left in like a 100 years..

I would like to keep this perfect example of a Nazi sentiment framed and posted on the wall. We need to know whom we are dealing with.

[adma]

I would like to keep this perfect example of a Nazi sentiment framed and posted on the wall. We need to know whom we are dealing with.

If only this forum had "Like" buttons...

[Tender Branson]

VdB is now getting death threats on Facebook and someone posted his private address there.

His personal security has been stepped up significantly because of this.