Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[The Last Northerner]

What are the major parties' stance on NATO membership? The FPO leader blamed NATO for the refugee crisis but what about the others?

[MaxQue]

VdB is now getting death threats on Facebook and someone posted his private address there.

His personal security has been stepped up significantly because of this.

But far right are democrats, they are the people, they would never do that...

[DavidB.]

VdB is now getting death threats on Facebook and someone posted his private address there.

That's incredibly sad and depressing.

But far right are democrats, they are the people, they would never do that...

>Implying Hofer wouldn't have gotten death threats if elected

Unfortunately, nutters are represented in all political camps, though definitely more so on the far left and the far right.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What are the major parties' stance on NATO membership? The FPO leader blamed NATO for the refugee crisis but what about the others?

The OVP are the most in favour - I think they pushed the country to join PfP. During the 90's the FPO was in favour of joining apparently, but no longer. The SPO (due to the Kreisky legacy), Greens and NEOS are against.

In practice though, Austria would be the hardest state European state to get into NATO beyond Switzerland and Russia's puppets.

[DavidB.]

the FPO was in favour of joining apparently, but no longer.

Five minutes into Kremlin and chill and they give you this stance

NEOS are against.

Surprised by this tbh.

Anyway, the US is spectacularly unpopular in the Germanophone sphere it seems, judging by the outrage over TTIP and the number of Putinversteher, so yeah, not gonna happen.

[MaxQue]

VdB is now getting death threats on Facebook and someone posted his private address there.

That's incredibly sad and depressing.

But far right are democrats, they are the people, they would never do that...

>Implying Hofer wouldn't have gotten death threats if elected

Unfortunately, nutters are represented in all political camps, though definitely more so on the far left and the far right.

From the track record from the far left, they wouldn't send death threats, they would severely disturb any event related to the Presidency and perhaps rioting, which is barely better.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I honestly surprised there isn't a stronger movement for Germany itself to pull out. They don't really care about the U.S./Russia conflict at all, the postwar aversion to militarism that is common to the publics (if not the politicians) of the other defeated axis powers and most Germans associate the organisation with the war in Afghanistan.

[Tender Branson]

For our depressed FPÖ-voters and fetishists:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZb-64QMI9Y

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/734887055969259520

[DL]

I will be interested to see a post-presidential election poll on how Austrians would vote in a nationalrat election - I'm curious if there is any Green bump and any deflation of the FPO vote

[SNJ1985]

^ TB posted one (from Gallup) on the last page of this thread. The FPÖ gained support, going from 33% to 34%; while the Greens stayed at the same level of support (13%).

[Tender Branson]

Irmgard Griss (3rd in the first round) will likely become the next President of the Court of Audit (the term is up in July), with the backing of SPÖ, ÖVP, Greens, NEOS and TS. The FPÖ is against:



...

Meanwhile, Norbert Hofer has gone on vacation with this family.

[reciprocity]

I wish Irmgard made the run off..... Anyway, I don't know if I came off across as a FPO supporter but I really not. They are IMO even more destructive than the SPOVP union. They sort of follow the same disastrous policies that von Mises who I think was Dollfuss' economic advisor just before Anschluss; which led to severe deflation and sky-high unemployment. I just hope that the SPOVP establishment take domestic issues more seriously now.

[Tender Branson]

I will make a Waldheim '86 => Hofer '16 trend map, once the official results are out on June 1.

For example, my district (Zell am See) voted 55% Waldheim (54% nationally), but 58% Hofer (50% nationally) - trending a lot towards Hofer over the past 30 years.

I'm interested to see how other districts did (I assume Vorarlberg, Tyrol and Vienna strongly trended to VdB - while Styria, Burgenland trended a lot towards Hofer).

[Tender Branson]

I will make a Waldheim '86 => Hofer '16 trend map, once the official results are out on June 1.

For example, my district (Zell am See) voted 55% Waldheim (54% nationally), but 58% Hofer (50% nationally) - trending a lot towards Hofer over the past 30 years.

I'm interested to see how other districts did (I assume Vorarlberg, Tyrol and Vienna strongly trended to VdB - while Styria, Burgenland trended a lot towards Hofer).

Cranberry's district (Imst) for example strongly trended to VdB:

1986: 75% Waldheim, 54% nationally (+21)
2016: 53% Hofer, 50% nationally (+3)

It trended 18 points to VdB, while Zell am See trended 7 points to Hofer.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though much as Hofer was not a 'typical' candidate of the right, so also VdB was absolutely not a 'typical' candidate of the left.

[Tender Branson]

Waldheim '86 => Hofer '16 trend map by state:



Vorarlberg and Tyrol trended most strongly to VdB (Vorarlberg by 25 points). Vienna by 3 points and even Salzburg managed to trend to VdB (by 1 point).

Upper Austria didn't trend at all: It was ca. 1% more VdB than the nation, but also 1% less for Waldheim back in 1986.

On the other hand, Burgenland trended 16 points to Hofer. Styria and Carinthia also trended Hofer, Lower Austria only barely.

Will do the district map later ...

[Bacon King]

What's up with the non-contiguous part of Tirol? (this may not be the best thread for the question, but I've never noticed it before)

[Tender Branson]

What's up with the non-contiguous part of Tirol? (this may not be the best thread for the question, but I've never noticed it before)

I'll leave that to Cranberry. He's the Forum expert on Tyrol.

[Tender Branson]

The 1986 => 2016 trend map by district will be awesome ...

For example, in 1986 Vienna-Neubau voted with 56% for Waldheim, but Hofer only got 19% there.

Which means Neubau was Waldheim+2 in 1986, but VdB+31 now when compared with the national results ... !

On the other hand, Vienna-Simmering voted just 33% Waldheim (-21). But Hofer got 51% (+1).

In general, Vienna's inner-city districts all voted strongly for Waldheim back in 1986 and the outer districts all voted strongly for his SPÖ-opponent.

30 years later, it's the total opposite: VdB got the highest margins in the inner-city districts, while the working-class districts in the South and North had the best Hofer-results.

[Tender Branson]

The differences in Styria are also just ... wow:

* Graz, Austria's 2nd biggest city, trended 16 points away from Waldheim to VdB. It was Waldheim+2, and is now VdB+14.

* Leoben, a major mining and steel district just to the north, trended 25 points to Hofer. Waldheim got only 38% there (-16), but Hofer got 59% there (+9).

[aross]

And all this is a surprise why precisely? In fact, you'd almost certainly get a better correlation if you took VdB as the "right" candidate and Hofer for the "left".

[aross]

What's up with the non-contiguous part of Tirol? (this may not be the best thread for the question, but I've never noticed it before)

Ost(Eastern)tirol. Formerly connected to the rest of Tyrol via Südtirol.

[Tender Branson]

And all this is a surprise why precisely? In fact, you'd almost certainly get a better correlation if you took VdB as the "right" candidate and Hofer for the "left".

Yeah, probably - but it's still funny.

I'm now done with calculating the trends for each Burgenland district (it's slow, because the 1986 file is just a PDF and not Excel) and only Eisenstadt had a 12-point trend to VdB, while every other district there trended to Hofer with 11-24 points.

[Tender Branson]

Carinthia:

Only Klagenfurt (the capital) trended from Waldheim to VdB, but only by 0.13 points.

The other 9 districts all trended strongly to Hofer, ranging from 4-27 points.