Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Presidential runoff on May 22 ?
#1
Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
#2
Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)
#3
I'd invalidate the ballot
#4
I'd stay home
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results


Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)  (Read 285482 times)
Diouf
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« Reply #1150 on: June 05, 2016, 06:10:02 AM »

This Linz/Waldhofen irregularity is already being used in conspiracy theories by Eurosceptics around Europe. In Denmark, the well-known business leader Asger Aamund, with ties to the Liberal Alliance and perhaps now Nye Borgerlige, wrote in one of the country's biggest newspapers how the result was a fraud. He compared it with results in the Soviet Union, used Stalin's "The people who count the votes decide everything"-quote and then claimed that it was an EU+Austrian elite fraud that had denied Hofer the win. As additional proof of fraud, he mentions that Hofer led big in the first round and the "very unusual and suspicious" results of the postal votes with way more van der Bellen votes. Had he even followed the election a bit, perhaps in this great thread, he would have know that it was entirely expected.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1151 on: June 05, 2016, 06:16:18 AM »

This Linz/Waldhofen irregularity is already being used in conspiracy theories by Eurosceptics around Europe. In Denmark, the well-known business leader Asger Aamund, with ties to the Liberal Alliance and perhaps now Nye Borgerlige, wrote in one of the country's biggest newspapers how the result was a fraud. He compared it with results in the Soviet Union, used Stalin's "The people who count the votes decide everything"-quote and then claimed that it was an EU+Austrian elite fraud that had denied Hofer the win. As additional proof of fraud, he mentions that Hofer led big in the first round and the "very unusual and suspicious" results of the postal votes with way more van der Bellen votes. Had he even followed the election a bit, perhaps in this great thread, he would have know that it was entirely expected.

Yeah, yeah ... the conspiracy nuts.

Linz and Waidhofen already had their final results on their own city websites on election night and Monday night after the postal ballots were counted.

It was just that the BMI (federal election website people) made an error by lumping together the city result incl. postal ballots and added the postal ballots again to that total. That's why Waidhofen had 147% turnout, instead of 79% (as seen on their city website).

And yeah, I was already posting here days before the runoff about how VdB will likely get 60-65% of the postal vote, based on historical results ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1152 on: June 05, 2016, 06:28:26 AM »

BTW, the deadline for submitting a challenge is June 8 (midnight).

The Constitutional Court then has to rule within 4 weeks, because VdB will be sworn in as President on July 8.

They could for example:

* dismiss the whole challenge
* invalidate the postal vote counts in (several) districts
* invalidate the total vote count in (several) districts
* issue a re-vote in (several) districts
* issue a re-vote in all of Austria
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1153 on: June 07, 2016, 01:20:20 PM »

Unless there's an early parliamentary election next year, the next 2 years are going to be so painfully boring here election-wise ... Sad
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1154 on: June 07, 2016, 05:39:25 PM »

  So, is Tender and the FPO in the same boat here, both rooting for early elections?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1155 on: June 08, 2016, 12:33:34 AM »

  So, is Tender and the FPO in the same boat here, both rooting for early elections?

Well, in 2018 there are 4 state elections and the federal election is also scheduled.

5 years is a long time and because 2017 would be extremely boring, I would not be unhappy with a federal election already in 2017 ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1156 on: June 08, 2016, 12:36:00 AM »

The FPÖ will announce in the next hours if they'll contest the runoff election in court.

Signs are pointing towards "Yes".
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1157 on: June 08, 2016, 04:20:44 AM »

Yup, they're doing it.
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Cranberry
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« Reply #1158 on: June 08, 2016, 07:17:14 AM »

Sore losers.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1159 on: June 08, 2016, 12:04:06 PM »


Yes.

And they submitted a lawsuit of 150 (!) pages to the Constitutional Court.

And now the funny part:

Because of the detailed "accusations of irregularities", the CC might take more than the 4 weeks to view them and issue a ruling on the lawsuit.

Heinz Fischer's term ends on July 8 and VdB is scheduled to be sworn in on that day. If the CC does not issue a ruling by July 8, Norbert Hofer will become one of three acting Presidents ... Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1160 on: June 09, 2016, 12:11:12 PM »

I wonder if we'll get polls on a possible re-vote ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1161 on: June 09, 2016, 12:53:16 PM »

Several constitutional experts have actually said the FPÖ's challenge could be successful to some extent, but they remain unsure if the whole runoff will be declared illegal.

But just last year, there was also a problem with the postal votes in the mayoral election in Hohenems, which the ÖVP candidate barely won. The Constitutional Court ordered a re-vote, which the FPÖ candidate won in a landslide ...

The CC is known for its strict independence and they once dealt a massive blow to the SPÖVP government when they ruled that the mass surveillance and data storage of citizens was illegal and had to be stopped immediately.

So, it's not totally unlikely that the CC declares the runoff illegal and mandates a complete re-vote (if they think many violations happened).

As a first step, the CC already ordered all election-related documents from the Interior Ministry and central election commission.
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Omega21
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« Reply #1162 on: June 09, 2016, 01:31:04 PM »

The Mayoral election makes me think that there actually is corruption to some extent, wouldnt have thought Austria had corruption at all xD.. Although dont really think half a million votes are invalid, probably the FPO are exaggerating.

Here where I live, elections are fixed regularily with the Bulgarian train or by paying people 25-50Euros for a vote, very sad..


Sometimes even dead people vote, lol..
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Cranberry
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« Reply #1163 on: June 09, 2016, 01:37:07 PM »

The thing is though, the only things that the FPÖ so far has presented are no more than irregularities regarding postal ballots opened to early and similar - even if that's against the law, it doesn't change the outcome - Van der Bellen would have won those votes regardless, and the CC knows that, and Strache does too. As such, I'm 99% sure the results will stick.

The thing the FPÖ really wants to achieve through that is de-legitimasing the democratically elected winner. They can't change that fact, so they act like little children who can't lose, and try the next best thing they can do.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1164 on: June 09, 2016, 01:37:36 PM »

The Mayoral election makes me think that there actually is corruption to some extent, wouldnt have thought Austria had corruption at all xD.. Although dont really think half a million votes are invalid, probably the FPO are exaggerating.

Here where I live, elections are fixed regularily with the Bulgarian train or by paying people 25-50Euros for a vote, very sad..


Sometimes even dead people vote, lol..

Well, the stuff you have in Bulgaria is certainly not happening here ...

The FPÖ's charge is more directed at the early pre-selection of postal votes on Sunday, so that the Monday vote count is quicker for election workers.

But: even all the FPÖ's members in the election commissions signed that everything was OK and done business as usual when the postal ballots were pre-selected.
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Omega21
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« Reply #1165 on: June 09, 2016, 01:44:40 PM »

The Mayoral election makes me think that there actually is corruption to some extent, wouldnt have thought Austria had corruption at all xD.. Although dont really think half a million votes are invalid, probably the FPO are exaggerating.

Here where I live, elections are fixed regularily with the Bulgarian train or by paying people 25-50Euros for a vote, very sad..


Sometimes even dead people vote, lol..

Well, the stuff you have in Bulgaria is certainly not happening here ...

The FPÖ's charge is more directed at the early pre-selection of postal votes on Sunday, so that the Monday vote count is quicker for election workers.

But: even all the FPÖ's members in the election commissions signed that everything was OK and done business as usual when the postal ballots were pre-selected.

Im not from Bulgaria, but the system thats used to steal votes is Bulgarian..
 
I live in Bosnia...

Yeah I thnk its like 95-5 that the vote will stick, maybe a few districts get to vote again but dont think it can change 30k votes..

At least we have something entertaining for the next month, seeing as the rest of the year will be a drought in terms of elections..
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1166 on: June 09, 2016, 01:51:17 PM »

Still, it would be funny if the CC at least ordered a re-vote in some districts, such as VdB-voting Linz or Waidhofen and the Vienna suburbs, plus the Hofer-voting Carinthian districts.

It would give us an indicator about how Austria as a whole would have voted in a re-vote ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1167 on: June 09, 2016, 11:55:26 PM »

New Gallup/Ö24 poll (June 7-8, n=600):



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Kern-Effekt-light-fuer-SPOe/239027342
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1168 on: June 10, 2016, 08:38:10 AM »

Salzburg state's FPÖ leadership convention will take place tonight, in which the FPÖ will re-structure the party and elect the youngest and only female state leader (Marlene Svazek) and her 3 male deputies. They call it the new "young, dynamic and competent leadership team" for Salzburg, which will lead the party into the 2018 state election:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1169 on: June 10, 2016, 12:12:06 PM »

Reading this latest STANDARD article (especially the parts at the end), there might actually be reason to believe that the Constitutional Court will rule in favour of the FPÖ's challenge (... if the court takes the election law 100% serious).

http://derstandard.at/2000038693709-1528/Praesidentschaftswahl-Was-die-FPOe-zur-Wahlanfechtung-vorbringt

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Also, this part is bad news for the VdB camp, if the CC takes the election law 100% serious:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1170 on: June 10, 2016, 12:18:28 PM »

The absolute worst-case for the VdB camp would be if the CC declares the runoff illegal, orders a re-vote and temporarily suspends postal voting (except for Austrians abroad) until SPÖVP fixes the election law to make it 100% accurate ...
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Omega21
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« Reply #1171 on: June 10, 2016, 09:43:38 PM »

The absolute worst-case for the VdB camp would be if the CC declares the runoff illegal, orders a re-vote and temporarily suspends postal voting (except for Austrians abroad) until SPÖVP fixes the election law to make it 100% accurate ...

What are the chances of this happening, realistically...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1172 on: June 11, 2016, 12:23:53 AM »

The absolute worst-case for the VdB camp would be if the CC declares the runoff illegal, orders a re-vote and temporarily suspends postal voting (except for Austrians abroad) until SPÖVP fixes the election law to make it 100% accurate ...

What are the chances of this happening, realistically...

Close to 0%.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1173 on: June 11, 2016, 12:28:24 AM »

I wonder if we'll get polls on a possible re-vote ...

And there is one !

Gallup/Ö24:

45% VdB
44% Hofer
11% Undecided

50.6-49.4 VdB without the undecideds.

"Do you think the election management (vote counting etc.) was done correctly according to the election law ?"

55% Yes
31% No (62% of FPÖ-voters and 21% of ÖVP-voters say No)

https://www.epaper-oesterreich.at/pageimage/217408/3/hires.jpg

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-VdB-wuerde-auch-Neuwahl-gewinnen/239154769
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1174 on: June 11, 2016, 01:15:52 AM »

Salzburg state's FPÖ leadership convention will take place tonight, in which the FPÖ will re-structure the party and elect the youngest and only female state leader (Marlene Svazek, 24) and her 3 male deputies. They call it the new "young, dynamic and competent leadership team" for Salzburg, which will lead the party into the 2018 state election.

BTW: She was elected with 96% of the delegates.

 

In her speech, Svazek said she wants to broaden the FPÖ's appeal - from just the foreigner/asylum topic to classic Social-Democratic and Conservative issues such as tackling the high costs of rent in Salzburg (because many people cannot afford to rent or buy a home anymore) and more incentives for businesses to create more jobs.
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