Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 04:47:34 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 43 44 45 46 47 [48] 49 50 51 52 53 ... 81
Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Presidential runoff on May 22 ?
#1
Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
#2
Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)
#3
I'd invalidate the ballot
#4
I'd stay home
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results


Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)  (Read 285615 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1175 on: June 11, 2016, 05:18:05 AM »

If someone wants to read it, here's the full 152-page constitutional court challenge from the FPÖ:

http://www.fpoe.at/fileadmin/user_upload/www.fpoe.at/dokumente/2016/wahlanfechtung_volltext.pdf
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1176 on: June 11, 2016, 12:02:49 PM »

A couple thousand far-right wingers clashed with a couple thousand left-wingers today in Vienna.

The right-wingers had signs reading "Anti-Fa back to North Korea" or anti-refugee signs.

The left-wingers had signs with "No place for Nazis in Vienna. Refugees and Muslims welcome."

The police tear-gassed and water-cannoned both groups down ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1177 on: June 12, 2016, 11:57:08 AM »

Another major Austrian constitutional expert says the FPÖ's court challenge might succeed to the fullest extent (= runoff being declared illegal and a re-vote is set):

http://derstandard.at/2000038788281/Experte-sieht-gewichtige-Argumente-fuer-blaue-Anfechtung
Logged
Omega21
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,869


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1178 on: June 12, 2016, 01:08:18 PM »

Another major Austrian constitutional expert says the FPÖ's court challenge might succeed to the fullest extent (= runoff being declared illegal and a re-vote is set):

http://derstandard.at/2000038788281/Experte-sieht-gewichtige-Argumente-fuer-blaue-Anfechtung

If this happens, would there be another Campaign before the 2nd runoff and how soon could it be held after the verdict?
Logged
rob in cal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,978
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1179 on: June 12, 2016, 06:23:34 PM »

   I have a compromise suggestion.  VDB is sworn in, FPO drops its challenges, but VDB says he will swear in a FPO chancellor if FPO achieves a working NR majority after the next election.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,600
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1180 on: June 12, 2016, 06:38:54 PM »

Another major Austrian constitutional expert says the FPÖ's court challenge might succeed to the fullest extent (= runoff being declared illegal and a re-vote is set):

http://derstandard.at/2000038788281/Experte-sieht-gewichtige-Argumente-fuer-blaue-Anfechtung

Can government replaces those judges who dare to reverse popular will?
Logged
rob in cal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,978
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1181 on: June 13, 2016, 12:22:08 AM »

   In the US we have judges who are on occasion overthrow the decisions of the electorate, and its almost expected and predictable who those judges are (usually liberal ones who find that conservative electoral outcomes in referenda are in violation of some newly discovered or interpreted constitutional right).
Logged
Omega21
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,869


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1182 on: June 13, 2016, 09:26:08 AM »

Another major Austrian constitutional expert says the FPÖ's court challenge might succeed to the fullest extent (= runoff being declared illegal and a re-vote is set):

http://derstandard.at/2000038788281/Experte-sieht-gewichtige-Argumente-fuer-blaue-Anfechtung

Can government replaces those judges who dare to reverse popular will?

Well the judges would be nothing but right to do it, the irregularities were very small and even though they were not legal, they dont alter the result (Vdb would still win), but in any case the judge makes a decision according to the law, and opening ballots earlier (which is one of the irregularities) is illegal.

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1183 on: June 13, 2016, 01:22:50 PM »

The repeat vote would be set right after the ruling and the usual election calendar procedure means the re-vote would be held ca. 3 months after the election is set. Including campaigning and TV debates again ... Tongue

On the judges, I read on the VfGH page that the government can name 8 of the 14 judges, the parliament 3 and the Bundesrat (the other parliamentary chamber in Austria) another 3.

But nobody is "replacing" a judge because of their ruling, that would be crazy ... In fact, the website says that a judge's term is over once he reaches age 70 (by December 31 after their birthday). If the outgoing judge was named by the parliament for example, the next nominee will also be nominated by the parliament and so on ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1184 on: June 13, 2016, 01:30:39 PM »

Things are moving more towards a successful FPÖ-challenge:

* The Constitutional Court has postponed all other legal hearings and decisions that were scheduled for June and early July to focus fully on the FPÖ's election challenge.

* The BMI/Federal Election Commission has pre-emptively filed charges with all district election commissions that were mentioned in the FPÖ's challenge.

* The leader of the Federal Election Commission, Stein, has said a successful FPÖ-challenge is "not unlikely".
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1185 on: June 13, 2016, 02:01:03 PM »

Alfred Noll, a prominent lawyer close to the VdB camp, also agrees that the inadvertence of several district election commissions could be a reason for the CC to rule in favour of a re-vote:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://orf.at/stories/2344654/2344655
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1186 on: June 14, 2016, 01:48:40 PM »

According to final results, Austria's population has grown by 116.000 people (+1.4%) last year to 8.7 million on January 1, 2016.

That is the biggest increase since WW2.

In the first quarter of 2016, the population increased by another 25.500 to 8.73 million - which indicates another record year for population growth.

The population growth is driven mostly by a huge immigration surplus from EU citizens, as well as non-EU foreigners. There's also a small birth surplus.

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/108136.html
http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/108139.html
http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/108126.html
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1187 on: June 16, 2016, 12:08:16 AM »

Yesterday, the Constitutional Court has ruled in favour of the FPÖ in another similar election case:

The FPÖ has filed a lawsuit because of small postal ballot irregularities after the district elections in Vienna's 2nd district, which were held together with the Vienna state elections last fall.

The CC ordered a total re-vote in Vienna's 2nd district.

http://derstandard.at/2000038985118/Bezirksvertretungswahl-muss-im-zweiten-Bezirk-wiederholt-werden

...

If the CC argues like this, it's now about 70-90% certain that they will also order a re-vote of the Presidential runoff, because the postal ballot irregularities were even bigger in that election.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1188 on: June 16, 2016, 12:16:41 AM »

The absolute worst-case for the VdB camp would be if the CC declares the runoff illegal, orders a re-vote and temporarily suspends postal voting (except for Austrians abroad) until SPÖVP fixes the election law to make it 100% accurate ...

What are the chances of this happening, realistically...

Close to 0%.

Well, after the Vienna-02 ruling yesterday, that's probably up to a 20-40% chance now ...
Logged
Omega21
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,869


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1189 on: June 16, 2016, 04:30:33 AM »
« Edited: June 16, 2016, 07:34:16 AM by Omega21 »

The absolute worst-case for the VdB camp would be if the CC declares the runoff illegal, orders a re-vote and temporarily suspends postal voting (except for Austrians abroad) until SPÖVP fixes the election law to make it 100% accurate ...

What are the chances of this happening, realistically...

Close to 0%.

Well, after the Vienna-02 ruling yesterday, that's probably up to a 20-40% chance now ...

I think people like you who vote by Mail would just go out and vote in person, if the absence vote was suspended of course. Still think Vdb wouldnt lose a lot of votes, especially since his Voters are motived more because the other candidate is a Right-wing FPO member.

Meanwhile I cant understand how the FPO cant manage to win more than 30% of Wien, im sure if they did some ads and some coverage on a few articles and some talking points such as work for young people, people would get pretty annoyed with the SPO/Green in Wien..

Such as this: http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/Schon_jeder_dritte_junge_Wiener_hat_keine_Arbeit!-Trotz_Versprechungen-Story-515244

According to this 31% of Men under 25 in Wien are unemployed, and 12% of Women.

(And i assume as Krone is Austrias best selling newspaper, that this likely isnt a false fact)

If spun correctly this could lead to huge gains for the Right, just not sure how they are so incompetent on doing that as they have the Refugee crisis, Imigrant criminals and Unemployment in Wien working for them, and the Left really has no good awnser for this.

Coupled with the Rapes that happen weekly, a 10 year old boy being the latest victim, not sure how they are not getting much more, as I presume Austrians dont like rape and murder by hardened criminals who were not properly checked when coming in.



Anyway, looking forward to the repeat election if it happens, even though Vdb will win again most likely, it will still be something to pass the time.
Logged
aross
Rookie
**
Posts: 148
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1190 on: June 16, 2016, 07:57:39 AM »

The absolute worst-case for the VdB camp would be if the CC declares the runoff illegal, orders a re-vote and temporarily suspends postal voting (except for Austrians abroad) until SPÖVP fixes the election law to make it 100% accurate ...

What are the chances of this happening, realistically...

Close to 0%.

Well, after the Vienna-02 ruling yesterday, that's probably up to a 20-40% chance now ...
No, it clearly isn't (nor the even more ridiculous percentages you asserted above). This decision was down to two factors:
  • The postal ballots in question were unaccounted for, i.e. the result was actually being affected
  • This relative small number of ballots (~80) could, by chance, be enough to materially change the result (the FPÖ might have gained a seat from the Greens)
Both these conditions need to be fulfilled for any sort of new election to take place. Given that the FPÖ have so far only alleged errors of form, which wouldn't change the result, neither seems likely.

While the Constitutional Court has indeed become slightly more active in recent years, it is still incredibly restrained (mostly because it is stuffed with loyal party appointees). It also can't suspend postal voting as it is itself regulated by Austria's (absurdly long and not-in-one-document) constitution.

What this does clearly show is that Austria desperately needs a provision for recounts.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1191 on: June 16, 2016, 10:20:52 AM »

Maybe, but the early opening and pre-selection of postal ballots on Sunday affected more than 500.000 ballots, according to the FPÖ-lawsuit.

And this is not allowed, according to the election law. And the CC is taking this matter very seriously it seems, because they will have hearings the whole next week and asked 90 (!) witnesses (= district election commission members from the districts mentioned in the FPÖ's lawsuit) to appear in court next week ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1192 on: June 16, 2016, 10:32:40 AM »

If the CC orders a re-vote of the runoff, it will likely be held on Oct. 23 (according to an article I've just read), which would only be two weeks before the US election ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1193 on: June 16, 2016, 10:44:38 AM »

I think people like you who vote by Mail would just go out and vote in person, if the absence vote was suspended of course. Still think Vdb wouldnt lose a lot of votes, especially since his Voters are motived more because the other candidate is a Right-wing FPO member.

Aross says that apparently the Constitutional Court cannot suspend the postal voting (for some reason that I don't understand, because it's the friggin' Constitutional Court, so who else can suspend it, if not the CC ?).

If they can still suspend it somehow, yeah, most people would simply go to the polls instead. Many would also stay home though, because they are not interested in another vote or they are disillusioned by the vote-counting problems. The question is if more Hofer-voters or more VdB-voters would stay home. I'd say that VdB would probably still win the re-vote, because his voters are the more motivated and reliable voters in general ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1194 on: June 16, 2016, 10:56:46 AM »

Upper Austria's ÖVP-FPÖ coalition passed the controversial reduction of immigrant/refugee welfare payments in the state parliament today.

Until now, every refugee streaming into Upper Austria got at least 914€ a month (14x per year) per person, with additional child benefits.

This was ca. 100€ per month more than what an Austrian worker with minimum pension got every month, with the difference that refugees never paid a cent into the system, but the Austrian worker did.

This was slashed to 365€ a month today, plus an additional 155€ which will be "integration-dependent" (meaning it is only paid if the aslum seeker signs a contract in which he/she pledges to live according to certain Austrian values).

ÖVP/FPÖ voted for it, SPÖ/Greens against.

ÖVP/FPÖ now hopes that the refugees will all move to Vienna, which has by far the most generous welfare payments for foreigners streaming in and has no intention whatsoever to slash these benefits ...

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/landespolitik/Mindestsicherung-Kuerzung-beschlossen;art383,2263204
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1195 on: June 16, 2016, 11:20:45 AM »

Btw, the Constitutional Court has 14 main judges (9 men, 5 women):



The slogan on top of them is the same as on Norbert Hofer's posters ("The law emanates from the people"):

Logged
Omega21
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,869


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1196 on: June 16, 2016, 11:36:42 AM »

I would love to see FPO deal with the migration issues, cant deny that they are the best at that, at least normal people who dont think illegal migrants should get more then Austrian workers who worked their  whole life for their system.


This is the reason I would like them to be in power for 4-6 years, set up a few things against this kind of bullsh**t and then it can be back to SPO, assuming they have no power to give out free money to random people jumping the fence..


Anyway Tender, are you expecting the same result if there is another runoff or do you expect a smaller/bigger difference, for Hofer or Vdb?
Logged
aross
Rookie
**
Posts: 148
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1197 on: June 16, 2016, 03:11:11 PM »

Maybe, but the early opening and pre-selection of postal ballots on Sunday affected more than 500.000 ballots, according to the FPÖ-lawsuit.

And this is not allowed, according to the election law. And the CC is taking this matter very seriously it seems, because they will have hearings the whole next week and asked 90 (!) witnesses (= district election commission members from the districts mentioned in the FPÖ's lawsuit) to appear in court next week ...
But - unless I have missed something - no-one is actually alleging that if these irregularities in the count actually affected the result - that is why I spoke of "errors of form". Sure, it's not meant to work like that, but it didn't actually change who won, so no reason for a rerun.

Given that a major political party is claiming electoral fraud (and, more indirectly, some sort of establishment conspiracy), I would be extremely disappointed if the Constitutional Court wasn't taking this very seriously, no matter how absurd and spurious their allegations are.

Aross says that apparently the Constitutional Court cannot suspend the postal voting (for some reason that I don't understand, because it's the friggin' Constitutional Court, so who else can suspend it, if not the CC ?).


Because something that is part of the constitution (such as postal voting, which is obviously absurd, but never mind, it's Austria) can by definition not be unconstitutional.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1198 on: June 17, 2016, 01:14:41 PM »

According to OGM's new poll of Austrian politicians, Norbert Hofer has a 48-43 favorable rating (which is extremely good for an FPÖ-politician). Even FPÖ-leader Strache only manages a 41-49 rating. Since their May poll, Hofer even gained 3% ...

Other ratings:

77-21 (outgoing) President Heinz Fischer
60-32 Sebastian Kurz (Foreign and Integration Minister, ÖVP)
48-32 Christian Kern (Chancellor, SPÖ)
49-42 Reinhold Mitterlehner (Vice-Chancellor, ÖVP)
41-46 Eva Glawischnig (Green Party leader)
32-37 Matthias Strolz (NEOS leader)

President-elect Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens) was not asked, because he's not a politician in office yet. Still stupid though not to ask about his numbers, it would be nice to have comparable figures with Hofer.



http://www.ogm.at/inhalt/2016/06/innenpolitik-vertrauensindex/APA-OGM-Vertrauensindex_BundespolitikerInnen-Juni-2016.pdf
Logged
Omega21
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,869


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1199 on: June 17, 2016, 01:36:46 PM »

According to OGM's new poll of Austrian politicians, Norbert Hofer has a 48-43 favorable rating (which is extremely good for an FPÖ-politician). Even FPÖ-leader Strache only manages a 41-49 rating. Since their May poll, Hofer even gained 3% ...

Other ratings:

77-21 (outgoing) President Heinz Fischer
60-32 Sebastian Kurz (Foreign and Integration Minister, ÖVP)
48-32 Christian Kern (Chancellor, SPÖ)
49-42 Reinhold Mitterlehner (Vice-Chancellor, ÖVP)
41-46 Eva Glawischnig (Green Party leader)
32-37 Matthias Strolz (NEOS leader)

President-elect Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens) was not asked, because he's not a politician in office yet. Still stupid though not to ask about his numbers, it would be nice to have comparable figures with Hofer.



http://www.ogm.at/inhalt/2016/06/innenpolitik-vertrauensindex/APA-OGM-Vertrauensindex_BundespolitikerInnen-Juni-2016.pdf

My thought at least is if the CC declares the runoff illegal that a small number of people could vote for Hofer next time as the "protector" of Democracy and Law. His campaign was centered around protecting this and being backed by a CC verdict coupled with him calling Vdb out as a Political Elite member could make some people think that there really was some tampering after all, more than there was actually.

Or do you think it wont have any impact?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 43 44 45 46 47 [48] 49 50 51 52 53 ... 81  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.095 seconds with 14 queries.