Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

Here's the "Auxit" vote by groups:

52% remain in the EU
30% leave



From top to bottom:

* gender
* age groups
* profession
* income
* party preference

[jimrtex]

When was "initially" for casting postal ballots (without cause)? Where do you mail your ballot to? Is it to a central location, and then distributed to the precincts?

By "initially" I mean a decade ago, when only Austrians abroad were allowed to vote by postal ballot. Only about 30.000 Austrians did so in a federal election, so the votes were quickly counted. Nowadays, about 800.000 people vote by absentee ballot.

Postal ballots are sent to the county election commissions, where they are counted. They are not distributed back to the precincts, they are simply counted on the district level.

I'm confused about the postal ballots. I thought that the main problem was that election commissioners had not shown up on Monday when postal ballots are counted. But you seem to be saying here that postal ballots are counted centrally.

In Texas (it may be different in  other States), most early voting is in person. A voter may go to any early voting location in their county. The voter rolls are electronic so they can be linked to prevent a voter from voting more than once over a two week period. In addition, voters who had been issued a postal ballot are indicated. If they attempt to vote in person, they are given a provisional ballot so that if the postal ballot is returned, the in-person vote can be discarded.

Paper voting rolls are used for election day voting by precinct. In the past, election workers were provided lists of voters who had voted early or who had been issued paper ballots, and were expected to mark the paper roll. In 2008, Democratic voters were told to vote twice, once early, and once at the precinct caucuses which are held on election day night. Some voters instead voted a second time on election day, and were permitted to because the election workers had not marked up the voter rolls.

Early voting results may be counted on election day (they don't use anyone under 40, for fear they would be asphyxiated if unable to use their smart phone for several hours). Since most early voting is in person, and on DREs, "counting" just means inserting a cartridge in a counting machine. But paper postal ballots can also be counted.

At poll closing time, the early results can be shown minutes later. They are indicated as being from one precinct, but it is just an aggregation. Later during the canvass they will be attributed back to the actual precincts.

[Brittain33]

I mean checking the voter lists if someone has voted etc.

"tick off" is probably the wrong word ...

Your use of "tick off" was a correct usage, albeit more British than American.

[Tender Branson]

When was "initially" for casting postal ballots (without cause)? Where do you mail your ballot to? Is it to a central location, and then distributed to the precincts?

By "initially" I mean a decade ago, when only Austrians abroad were allowed to vote by postal ballot. Only about 30.000 Austrians did so in a federal election, so the votes were quickly counted. Nowadays, about 800.000 people vote by absentee ballot.

Postal ballots are sent to the county election commissions, where they are counted. They are not distributed back to the precincts, they are simply counted on the district level.

I'm confused about the postal ballots. I thought that the main problem was that election commissioners had not shown up on Monday when postal ballots are counted. But you seem to be saying here that postal ballots are counted centrally.

In Texas (it may be different in  other States), most early voting is in person. A voter may go to any early voting location in their county. The voter rolls are electronic so they can be linked to prevent a voter from voting more than once over a two week period. In addition, voters who had been issued a postal ballot are indicated. If they attempt to vote in person, they are given a provisional ballot so that if the postal ballot is returned, the in-person vote can be discarded.

Paper voting rolls are used for election day voting by precinct. In the past, election workers were provided lists of voters who had voted early or who had been issued paper ballots, and were expected to mark the paper roll. In 2008, Democratic voters were told to vote twice, once early, and once at the precinct caucuses which are held on election day night. Some voters instead voted a second time on election day, and were permitted to because the election workers had not marked up the voter rolls.

Early voting results may be counted on election day (they don't use anyone under 40, for fear they would be asphyxiated if unable to use their smart phone for several hours). Since most early voting is in person, and on DREs, "counting" just means inserting a cartridge in a counting machine. But paper postal ballots can also be counted.

At poll closing time, the early results can be shown minutes later. They are indicated as being from one precinct, but it is just an aggregation. Later during the canvass they will be attributed back to the actual precincts.

The count itself is not the problem, it's 100% accurate. The Court has found no evidence whatsoever that there were any votes that were counted the wrong way. Even the FPÖ commission members who testified said there were no violations whatsoever.

One of the violations was that some commission members did not show up when the other commission members counted the postal ballots at the district level. For example, it might be that a Green-member or an FPÖ-member was absent and that only SPÖ, ÖVP, NEOS members were present at the count. According to the law, every member has to be present during the count.

[Tender Branson]

A new "meinungsraum.at" poll (n=600, July 1-4) shows that the re-vote is going to be close again (this poll has undecideds and non-voters too, therefore the lower percentages for the candidates):

On the left: "How did you vote in the original runoff ?"
On the right: "How will you vote in the runoff re-vote ?"



"Who do you think will win the re-vote ?"



"The constitutional court has ruled that an Austria-wide re-vote should be held. Do you agree or disagree with this ruling ?"



"Do you think there were deliberate manipulations of the postal votes ?"



"The re-vote is important for democracy in Austria. Agree or disagree ?"



"The Court based its ruling on election law technicality flaws such as sloppiness, early counting of postal ballots etc. in 14 out of 117 election districts. Do you agree or disagree with this reasoning ?"



http://meinungsraum.at/2016/07/2707

[Tender Branson]

The 12 years of President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) officially ended yesterday and there was a farewell ceremony in parliament. Fischer will now become a professor at the University of Innsbruck.

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) will not campaign for an "Auxit", saying that an EU-Exit would massively hurt Austrians. He previously said though that an Auxit referendum should be a last-resort option, for example if Turkey were allowed to join the EU or if the union does not enact significant reforms:

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36747304

[Tender Branson]

Like in the US, a young police officer from Carinthia (who just started his service) was brutally killed by a Bosnian immigrant in Vienna recently:

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http://www.thelocal.at/20160705/heroic-police-officer-dies-from-his-injuries

RIP.

[Tender Branson]

Van der Bellen (Greens) starts campaigning again:


"VdB ! - More than ever."

[Antonio the Sixth]

Glad to see a majority of the Austrian people disagree with this outrageous decision.

[Tender Branson]

Glad to see a majority of the Austrian people disagree with this outrageous decision.

The poll shows they agree.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Glad to see a majority of the Austrian people disagree with this outrageous decision.

The poll shows they agree.

FPÖ voters don't count.

(ok, I misread the main chart, but my point stands)

[Tender Branson]

Glad to see a majority of the Austrian people disagree with this outrageous decision.

The poll shows they agree.

FPÖ voters don't count.

(ok, I misread the main chart, but my point stands)

But looking at the charts, it's not just the FPÖ-people. Even 4/10 ÖVP-voters and almost 3/10 SPÖ-voters agree with the new election and almost 4/10 Green voters have a problem with that sloppiness and neglecting the election rules by some districts (=> see last chart).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Weird. Most non-FPÖ voters disagree with the decision but still think the revote "is important for democracy"? Go figure.

Having a problem with the sloppiness of election officials makes sense, I would too. That doesn't make the revote legitimate.

[Tender Branson]

Weird. Most non-FPÖ voters disagree with the decision but still think the revote "is important for democracy"? Go figure.

Having a problem with the sloppiness of election officials makes sense, I would too. That doesn't make the revote legitimate.

But it's the Constitutional Court. There's no higher legal authority than that. So, yeah, that ruling is and has to be legitimate and respected by all candidates or parties. There are 14 judges with political background from all parties and CC President Holzinger said the ruling was on solid footing and that their vote wasn't close. The judges combined have 100s of years of legal experience, so they know what's going on. And yes, it is good for our democracy that this ruling came now, especially for future elections which will be even better handled. And yes, the sloppiness is a real problem and must be taken seriously because voters expect 100% clean elections. Let's assume that you go to a hospital for surgery and the workers there take the hygiene not seriously and you get a major infection ... or die. Same with elections.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You can fix the sloppiness issue in the future without forcing the entire country to repeat a Presidential campaign whose outcome would almost certainly not have changed even without the sloppiness. Elections should only be annulled only when there is a reasonable suspicion that the winner would have been different.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

You can fix the sloppiness issue in the future without forcing the entire country to repeat a Presidential campaign whose outcome would almost certainly not have changed even without the sloppiness. Elections should only be annulled only when there is a reasonable suspicion that the winner would have been different.

I agree, the CC should have mandated changes for future elections rather than mandating this farce

[jimrtex]

Postal ballots are sent to the county election commissions, where they are counted. They are not distributed back to the precincts, they are simply counted on the district level.

I'm confused about the postal ballots. I thought that the main problem was that election commissioners had not shown up on Monday when postal ballots are counted. But you seem to be saying here that postal ballots are counted centrally.

The count itself is not the problem, it's 100% accurate. The Court has found no evidence whatsoever that there were any votes that were counted the wrong way. Even the FPÖ commission members who testified said there were no violations whatsoever.

One of the violations was that some commission members did not show up when the other commission members counted the postal ballots at the district level. For example, it might be that a Green-member or an FPÖ-member was absent and that only SPÖ, ÖVP, NEOS members were present at the count. According to the law, every member has to be present during the count.

Are all the precinct-level commission members expected to show up at the district-level counting? Do they count only the ballots from their precinct?

What types of buildings are used for the typical polling place?

I assume since there is a central registry, that you don't have to register to vote. Do you have to prove your identity? What if you had requested a postal ballot, and had misplaced it. Could you still go to the polling place and vote? When must a postal vote be received? How do the election authorities know that you completed the ballot.

[Tender Branson]

Are all the precinct-level commission members expected to show up at the district-level counting?

No, there's a seperate election commission at every district voting center which only counts the postal ballots. The precinct election commission members only count the in-person votes on election day.

Do they count only the ballots from their precinct?

Yes.

What types of buildings are used for the typical polling place?

Pretty much like in the US: schools, kindergartens, but mostly the town halls in each city.

I assume since there is a central registry, that you don't have to register to vote.

No, everyone is automatically registered in the town where the person is living. If you move, you are automatically de-registered in the old city and registered in the new one.

Do you have to prove your identity?

Yes, with a valid state-issued photo ID (passport, driver license, personal ID card)

What if you had requested a postal ballot, and had misplaced it. Could you still go to the polling place and vote?

No. Lost postal ballots cannot be replaced by the municipal office.

When must a postal vote be received?

By the time the polls close (5pm on election day). Postal ballots that arrive later will not be counted and destroyed.

How do the election authorities know that you completed the ballot ?

If you request a postal ballot at the municipal office, they will record it on the voter list. You can then vote by post or at any precinct in Austria - but ONLY with your absentee ballot which you will have to bring to the precinct (so that the election commission can cross-check). Which further means, if you already sent in your absentee ballot by post you cannot vote anymore in a precinct, because you have to bring your absentee ballot with you ...

[Omega21]

Will there be any campaigning next week, I will be in Wien so I would like to see either side..

[jimrtex]

Are all the precinct-level commission members expected to show up at the district-level counting?

No, there's a seperate election commission at every district voting center which only counts the postal ballots. The precinct election commission members only count the in-person votes on election day.

This seems like a much more serious dereliction, then. If your party were selecting you to serve on the district election commission, you would presumably know what you should be doing on Monday. If you said, "I've got to work on Monday", and the party boss said, "No problem, just show up after work and sign some papers", he is seriously wrong.

[Tender Branson]

Will there be any campaigning next week, I will be in Wien so I would like to see either side..

Nah, not really.

The summer vacation for school kids started this weekend and most people are now heading south for the beaches.

The actual campaigning will only start in early/mid-September, because now nobody is paying attention.

[Tender Branson]

VdB is off to a 2-week vacation in Tyrol, while Hofer will vacation at lakes in Hungary and Carinthia.

So, definitely no campaigning in the next 2 weeks ...

[Tender Branson]

Today, the Constitutional Court released the full written 170-page ruling of the FPÖ-challenge.

The English summary, if anyone is interested:

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https://www.vfgh.gv.at/cms/vfgh-site/attachments/9/6/5/CH0003/CMS1467363707042/press_release_07-01-16.pdf

[Antonio the Sixth]

I hope President Van der Bellen, following his triumphal reelection, will stage a coup and replace these fascist traitors with proper judges.