Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

Quite a low-key campaign for president going on right now, with both candidates on vacation.

Much of the campaigning right now is done via Social Media and some newspaper interviews:

Examples:

* Van der Bellen calls the FPÖ inconsistent and dangerous with their calls for an Auxit right after the Brexit vote and then Hofer saying he's not in favour of an Auxit

* Hofer posted on Facebook that he got himself a new puppy (dog)

* Van der Bellen repeated that he'd never swear in the FPÖ into the next government or Strache/Hofer as Chancellor

* Hofer said he's "concerned" about the Turks in Vienna (yesterday night, some 5.000 Turks held a spontaneous rally in Vienna in support of Erdogan), saying their integration into Austrian society has "failed". (Vienna's FPÖ-leader went a step further and called on them to leave the country).

And so on ...

What's you opinion on the Turks that took part in the rally?

Pretty mixed.

On the one hand, there are 100.000 Turks or Austrians with Turkish migration background living in Vienna and 5.000 came to the spontaneous mass protest for Islamo-Fascist Erdogan.

Which means 95% did not and stayed home.

But it's still worrying that a segment of the Turkish immigrants try to bring Turkish politics into Austria, where it simply has no place. Which is where I agree with Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) when he says that they should better go home if they cannot integrate here. And by "home" I don't mean their apartment, I mean Turkey.

[Omega21]

Quite a low-key campaign for president going on right now, with both candidates on vacation.

Much of the campaigning right now is done via Social Media and some newspaper interviews:

Examples:

* Van der Bellen calls the FPÖ inconsistent and dangerous with their calls for an Auxit right after the Brexit vote and then Hofer saying he's not in favour of an Auxit

* Hofer posted on Facebook that he got himself a new puppy (dog)

* Van der Bellen repeated that he'd never swear in the FPÖ into the next government or Strache/Hofer as Chancellor

* Hofer said he's "concerned" about the Turks in Vienna (yesterday night, some 5.000 Turks held a spontaneous rally in Vienna in support of Erdogan), saying their integration into Austrian society has "failed". (Vienna's FPÖ-leader went a step further and called on them to leave the country).

And so on ...

What's you opinion on the Turks that took part in the rally?

Pretty mixed.

On the one hand, there are 100.000 Turks or Austrians with Turkish migration background living in Vienna and 5.000 came to the spontaneous mass protest for Islamo-Fascist Erdogan.

Which means 95% did not and stayed home.

But it's still worrying that a segment of the Turkish immigrants try to bring Turkish politics into Austria, where it simply has no place. Which is where I agree with Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) when he says that they should better go home if they cannot integrate here. And by "home" I don't mean their apartment, I mean Turkey.

How the hell are you a Green supporter with these kind of normal, logical views and thoughts on migration

[Tender Branson]

Quite a low-key campaign for president going on right now, with both candidates on vacation.

Much of the campaigning right now is done via Social Media and some newspaper interviews:

Examples:

* Van der Bellen calls the FPÖ inconsistent and dangerous with their calls for an Auxit right after the Brexit vote and then Hofer saying he's not in favour of an Auxit

* Hofer posted on Facebook that he got himself a new puppy (dog)

* Van der Bellen repeated that he'd never swear in the FPÖ into the next government or Strache/Hofer as Chancellor

* Hofer said he's "concerned" about the Turks in Vienna (yesterday night, some 5.000 Turks held a spontaneous rally in Vienna in support of Erdogan), saying their integration into Austrian society has "failed". (Vienna's FPÖ-leader went a step further and called on them to leave the country).

And so on ...

What's you opinion on the Turks that took part in the rally?

Pretty mixed.

On the one hand, there are 100.000 Turks or Austrians with Turkish migration background living in Vienna and 5.000 came to the spontaneous mass protest for Islamo-Fascist Erdogan.

Which means 95% did not and stayed home.

But it's still worrying that a segment of the Turkish immigrants try to bring Turkish politics into Austria, where it simply has no place. Which is where I agree with Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) when he says that they should better go home if they cannot integrate here. And by "home" I don't mean their apartment, I mean Turkey.

How the hell are you a Green supporter with these kind of normal, logical views and thoughts on migration

Because (im)migration is only one of about 100 issues and I'm quite center-left on many other issues. It's just that (im)migration is one the most important issue in the news right now and the Green Party is frankly a bit nuts and naive on this issue, while I'm more of a realist. I'm not totally against immigration here, I just want to reduce it to a sustainable level (which is some 10.000-20.000 a year and not the 130.000 gain we have seen last year - the highest population growth here on record). A surplus higher than 10-20K just brings all kinds of problems with it.

[Tender Branson]

Hofer/FPÖ has won another court battle:

The Tyrolian state SPÖ-leader Ingo Mayr was ordered by a court to stop calling Hofer a "Nazi". He repeatedly referred to Hofer as a Nazi on his Facebook page and was sued by Hofer. Mayr also has to pay 2500€ in damages.

http://derstandard.at/2000041292176/Tiroler-SPOe-Chef-nach-Nazi-Vergleich-schuldig-gesprochen

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Austrian judiciary is a massive joke.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian judiciary is a massive joke.

Why ? Because it's only "cool" if it hands down punishments against the (Far)-Right ?

[Boston Bread]

Hofer/FPÖ has won another court battle:

The Tyrolian state SPÖ-leader Ingo Mayr was ordered by a court to stop calling Hofer a "Nazi". He repeatedly referred to Hofer as a Nazi on his Facebook page and was sued by Hofer. Mayr also has to pay 2500€ in damages.

http://derstandard.at/2000041292176/Tiroler-SPOe-Chef-nach-Nazi-Vergleich-schuldig-gesprochen

Political correctness and judicial activism in Austria really has gone too far

[Omega21]

The Austrian judiciary is a massive joke.

I was not aware that the FPO were preaching mass extermination of minorities. Could you please link me to your sources that say this?

Or would you like anyone who is not all cheery about Mass Illegal migration to be prosecuted?

If you want to be a Leftist, be a realistic kind like Tender.

Btw, Might I ask where you are from, and have you ever spent some real time in Austria, not including a few days as a Tourist..

[Hash]

Please keep in mind general rule 3 of this board:

3. Please aim to contribute relevant content to the threads when posting - by this I mean, refrain from posts which do not add any insightful value to the thread and discussion. Obviously, political debate and exchange, to a reasonable extent, is naturally welcome, but refrain from posts consisting only of personal opinions outside a discussion or without any relevant contributions to the topic.

The rule will be enforced.

[Omega21]

Please keep in mind general rule 3 of this board:

3. Please aim to contribute relevant content to the threads when posting - by this I mean, refrain from posts which do not add any insightful value to the thread and discussion. Obviously, political debate and exchange, to a reasonable extent, is naturally welcome, but refrain from posts consisting only of personal opinions outside a discussion or without any relevant contributions to the topic.

The rule will be enforced.

Could you please tell me which part of my post (if you are talking to me) is not in line with the rules, so I can remove that part and know what not to post in the future..

Thanks

[rob in cal]

  It would be quite interesting and informative to see a long drawn out court case on whether Hofer is a Nazi, and whether its appropriate to link the FPO to Nazism.  From the article it was hard to tell just how detailed the case in question was, but a real extensive court trial could look over the party platforms and compare the two, and also the experiences of Austria's first national FPO government in coalition with the OVP and see how that compared with Nazism.  Also, the current FPO participation within state governments could be look at. 
   I think the results would be informative and might help to deescalate political passions.

[Antonio the Sixth]

  It would be quite interesting and informative to see a long drawn out court case on whether Hofer is a Nazi, and whether its appropriate to link the FPO to Nazism.  From the article it was hard to tell just how detailed the case in question was, but a real extensive court trial could look over the party platforms and compare the two, and also the experiences of Austria's first national FPO government in coalition with the OVP and see how that compared with Nazism.  Also, the current FPO participation within state governments could be look at. 
   I think the results would be informative and might help to deescalate political passions.

That is not a question for the judiciary to answer. It falls well within the realm of political dialectics.

[rob in cal]

   In my scenario it would perhaps grow out of a libel suit, similar to the case that just happened.

[Tender Branson]

VdB attacks the Turkish pro-Erdogan protesters in Vienna:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.facebook.com/notes/alexander-van-der-bellen/der-putsch-in-der-t%C3%BCrkei-und-die-folgen/1241766439201729

Nice.

[Tender Branson]

The 3 main TV stations have not managed to agree on a single debate (like both the VdB and the Hofer campaigns wanted it).

Instead, we are now getting 3 debates again ... (as well as 6 primetime interviews from each station for each candidate)

The PULS4 debate will take place on Sept. 18, the ATV debate on Sept. 25 and the main ORF debate on Sept. 29, which is the Thursday before election day.

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/dossier/bundespraesidentschaftswahl-2016/sn/artikel/bp-wahl-tv-duelle-beginnen-zwei-wochen-vor-wahlsonntag-205467

[Tender Branson]

The VdB team will soon start to produce their new poster/ad campaign.

... in Burgenland.

Why Burgenland ?

The VdB camp isn't really saying it directly, but some officials said they want to bring the campaign more to the rural areas where Hofer did well. And since Burgenland is Hofer's home state where he did extremely well, they are now cutting some ads there with wine farmers etc.

While Burgenland is the smallest state and there are not many votes to get, it's still sending a signal that VdB wants to compete for the rural Hofer-leaning vote.

The posters will once again have the classical FPÖ-theme "Homeland" (Heimat) on them and they will launch Austria-wide at the end of August.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/daniel/Van-der-Bellen-greift-Hofer/244048573

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile after Nizza, Chancellor Christian Kern (SPÖ) discusses with leaders of Austria's Muslim organisations about integration, security issues etc. and Muna Duzdar (also SPÖ, Minister for Public Servants, of Palestinian origin) wants to attract more immigrants for public servant jobs such as teachers, police officers, correctional officers etc.

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/oesterreich/politik/sn/artikel/nach-nizza-kern-sucht-gespraech-mit-islamischen-verbaenden-205432

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/5051867/Duzdar-will-mehr-Migranten-im-Staatsdienst

[Tender Branson]

While googling about support for the death penalty in Turkey, I found an interesting study from IFES. It's already 4 years old, but it has a huge sample size of 2000 people questioned and IFES is generally a good pollster.

It's about direct democracy, if certain topics should be put to a referendum instead of being dealt with by parliament and how people would vote in such referendums:

"Do you think the following topics are legitimate to be decided by voters in a referendum, or should it be dealt with by the parliament only ?"

71-29 Yes - Introduction of a "wealth tax"
68-32 Yes - The quick deportation of criminal foreigners
57-43 Yes - The exit of Austria from the EU
41-59  No - Banning abortion in Austria
31-69  No - The introduction of the death penalty in Austria

"How would you vote if such a referendum were held ?"

79-21 Yes - Introduction of a "wealth tax"
73-27 Yes - The quick deportation of criminal foreigners
38-62  No - The exit of Austria from the EU
19-81  No - Banning abortion in Austria
16-84  No - The introduction of the death penalty in Austria

http://www.ifes.at/aktuelles/direkte-demokratie-oesterreich

The death penalty question is pretty similar to the OGM poll ahead of the 2013 federal election, when Frank Stronach supported the idea of bringing it back for "hitmen". During a TV debate, OGM asked about the death penalty and only 14% of Austrians supported the introduction ...

[Tender Branson]

A good article how Austria integrates the 100.000s of (Middle-Eastern) asylum seekers into society and labour market:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2016/07/19/syrian-refugees-entering-austria%E2%80%99s-job-market

[Omega21]

A good article how Austria integrates the 100.000s of (Middle-Eastern) asylum seekers into society and labour market:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2016/07/19/syrian-refugees-entering-austria%E2%80%99s-job-market

While Austrians and Eu workers wait in line, i presume

Edit:

The Greens come out against the deportation of Migrants by Hercules planes, because it is "against human dignity".

This could be a bad statement for Vdb, considering he needs to get 50+% of the Vote, and as i undestand about 65+% of Austrians are for the deportations,

http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/Gruener_Kampf_gegen_Hercules-Abschiebung-Sie_fliegt._aber_-Story-520692

[rob in cal]

   Tender, just as the VDB camp hopes to do better in Burgenland, what areas do you think make sense for Hofer to make a strong campaign push in?

[Tender Branson]

   Tender, just as the VDB camp hopes to do better in Burgenland, what areas do you think make sense for Hofer to make a strong campaign push in?

Opinions are unlikely to change by much in just 4 months, which is a reason why the race will likely be very close again.

I guess Hofer would concentrate on areas where VdB did well, such as Tyrol and Vbg. - but urban Vienna seems to be a lost cause, unless he can bring more non-voters to the polls. Hofer could also run up the margin a bit in Carinthia, which had below average turnout.

[Tender Branson]

South Tyrol's Governor Arno Kompatscher (SVP) endorses VdB:

http://www.tageszeitung.it/2016/07/20/arno-fuer-van-der-bellen

Also, Austria has now invited OSCE election observers to the runoff re-vote (like in 2010):

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/5054360/Bundespraesidentenwahl_OSZEWahlbeobachter-beantragt

I guess every ballot at the election will now be touched with silk gloves after the Court ruling, to make sure everything is running 100% according to the rules ...

[Tender Branson]

Team VdB has received 400.000€ already in donations from the public in the past 3 weeks.

That's pretty good, considering the Green Party's finances are not the best after 2 federal elections already this year.

The FPÖ's budget is also strained by the 2 elections already, but they have more cash-on-hand because of party financing (if you get a higher share in parliamentary and state elections, you get more cash).

http://derstandard.at/2000041532721/Spendenkampagne-und-Buergerbewegung-fuer-Van-der-Bellen

[rob in cal]

   So, I have this recurring fantasy of an FPO-SPO coalition emerging after the next parliamentary election, a sort of reverse model of Burgenland, in this case FPO would name Chancellor.  The FPO electorate is so heavily working class that I would think they would support such a coalition.  The FPO would in this scenario move closer to SPO on domestic issues perhaps, with the SPO coming much closer to FPO on immigration issues.  This would likely lead to a huge disruption in the SPO of course, with massive party splits possible.  The remaining pro coalition forces could be termed Ficoites, after Slovakia's Robert Fico.
   Wonder how realistic this scenario is.