Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Presidential runoff on May 22 ?
#1
Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
#2
Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)
#3
I'd invalidate the ballot
#4
I'd stay home
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)  (Read 285578 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #1400 on: July 22, 2016, 11:17:53 AM »

  So, I have this recurring fantasy of an FPO-SPO coalition emerging after the next parliamentary election, a sort of reverse model of Burgenland, in this case FPO would name Chancellor.  The FPO electorate is so heavily working class that I would think they would support such a coalition.  The FPO would in this scenario move closer to SPO on domestic issues perhaps, with the SPO coming much closer to FPO on immigration issues.  This would likely lead to a huge disruption in the SPO of course, with massive party splits possible.  The remaining pro coalition forces could be termed Ficoites, after Slovakia's Robert Fico.
   Wonder how realistic this scenario is.

Not realistic at all.

At least not with Chancellor Kern, who's from the SPÖ-left and categorically rules out a federal coalition with the FPÖ (state-level coalitions are a different topic).

Of course, they can still change their leadership - for example after a catastrophic SPÖ loss in the next federal elections.

But: A FPÖVP coalition is more likely I believe. It's also possible that Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) could become Chancellor, if - let's say VdB wins again, he would refuse to swear in a Chancellor Strache (FPÖ). Both Strache and Hofer have often praised Kurz before and maybe Strache could be somehow convinced to step aside in favour of a Chancellor Kurz if it means the FPÖ in government. Or Hofer wins the Presidency and swears in a Chancellor Strache and a Vice-Chancellor from the ÖVP (Kurz or someone else).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1401 on: July 22, 2016, 11:30:27 AM »

Meanwhile, Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) is mostly campaigning via Facebook.

Mowing the lawn:



Taking pics with his daughter, family and dogs:

 



Playing with his dog and cat:

https://www.facebook.com/norberthofer2016/videos/vb.1650580648552563/1774767999467160/?type=2&theater

...

Politics-wise, he recently called for a temporary stop of naturalisations of Turkish immigrants "until we can figure out what's going on with them" (= if they are loyal to Austria or secret agents for Erdogan).
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1402 on: July 22, 2016, 11:54:37 AM »

 I think that's smart campaigning by Hofer, showing him looking like a pretty normal person, which for someone perceived to be this extreme far-right candidate by some helps to reassure voters.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1403 on: July 24, 2016, 10:53:43 AM »

I know it's summer and nobody cares about the Presidential race right now, but it's time for a new poll !

The last one is about 1 month old already.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1404 on: July 25, 2016, 01:24:23 PM »

Good article:

http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/07/25/austria-freedom-party-populism-lesson-far-right/?printpage=true
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Omega21
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« Reply #1405 on: July 25, 2016, 05:09:44 PM »


Why is it so anti Hofer ..

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Hofer is more Center-Right than Far-Right..
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Zanas
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« Reply #1406 on: July 26, 2016, 02:14:13 AM »

Just... stop.
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Omega21
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« Reply #1407 on: July 26, 2016, 09:35:07 AM »


Well of course, when someoen is so far left like you, anyone close to the center or Right is called a Nazi/Ultra Nationalist.

And I will not stop because of you, so stop spamming the topic by telling me what to do.
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ag
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« Reply #1408 on: July 26, 2016, 02:37:36 PM »


Compared with you, perhaps Smiley
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Omega21
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« Reply #1409 on: July 26, 2016, 04:53:41 PM »


Just for the record, would you classify Hofer as a neo-Nazi/Ultra nationalist?
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ag
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« Reply #1410 on: July 26, 2016, 07:47:26 PM »


Just for the record, would you classify Hofer as a neo-Nazi/Ultra nationalist?

He is not 100% there, but he is a lot closer to these than to the most right-wing politician I would consider minimally acceptable (and, mind it, I have almost consistenly voted rightwing in my contry and would have been a strong CDU supporter in Germany these days). I definitely would never shake a hand of any Hofer voter.
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Omega21
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« Reply #1411 on: July 26, 2016, 08:15:14 PM »
« Edited: July 26, 2016, 08:25:21 PM by Omega21 »


Just for the record, would you classify Hofer as a neo-Nazi/Ultra nationalist?

He is not 100% there, but he is a lot closer to these than to the most right-wing politician I would consider minimally acceptable (and, mind it, I have almost consistenly voted rightwing in my contry and would have been a strong CDU supporter in Germany these days). I definitely would never shake a hand of any Hofer voter.

And can you provide me with any proof of this, for example statements or policies that resemble Nazism or Ultra Nationalism? It could just be that I'm not well informed about him, so please if im wrong just post the links.


And if you ever come to Austria, 50% Chance you will shake hands with a Hofer voter xD...

And don't judge people by this, people vote for the FPO not because they hate the people on the outside, but they love Austrians much more than the outsiders, and no country is obligated to let in people that it doesn't want and you should respect that decision, just as i respect any Leftie who doesn't offend me or call me a Nazi for my anti-mass migration views..

And let me post a silly, but meaningful question for you.

You are the President of Mexico, you can chose from these two options.

Would you accept 200 Asylum seekers from (insert War torn country here) if you knew as soon as you accept them (not saying they do it, but that if you accept them they die, if you don't accept them they won't die):
One Mexican woman is killed brutally and one Mexican 10 year old girl is raped and killed

Would you accept these Asylum seekers at the cost of 2 Mexican lives?

This is i think the ultimate question to see if someone would be a good president.
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ag
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« Reply #1412 on: July 26, 2016, 09:09:28 PM »
« Edited: July 26, 2016, 09:15:49 PM by ag »


You are the President of Mexico, you can chose from these two options.

Would you accept 200 Asylum seekers from (insert War torn country here) if you knew as soon as you accept them (not saying they do it, but that if you accept them they die, if you don't accept them they won't die):
One Mexican woman is killed brutally and one Mexican 10 year old girl is raped and killed

Would you accept these Asylum seekers at the cost of 2 Mexican lives?

This is i think the ultimate question to see if someone would be a good president.

I have myself signed a petition asking our government to accept 10,000 Syrian refugees - though, of course, I consider that number to be inadequately small - if I had any influence over Mexican policy over this, I would be advocating substantially larger numbers (say, 100,0000 would have been ok for the first few years; I doubt we could easily accept much more at once - we are a poor country - though, of course, we should try). One thing that very much impressed me on a recent trip to Brazil is how visible Syrians are there - you get Syrian food sold at subway entrances (and it is much nicer than the usual Brazilian fare). Actually, I very much envy Brazilians about it - we could definitely use some more Syrian/Middle Eastern food.

I have graver doubts about Austrians, though. Your ancestors have killed far too many of my fellow-tribesmen for that to be easily forgotten. Especially, when you are insisting on reminding it with posts like this one. I mean, you do have decent coffee/pastries and I do like an occasional sausage or schnitzel, but there are still enough children of refugees who fled your ancestors back then around for me to have a decent service on those lines (the Viennese backery on the corner here is delicious - even if it happens to be run by some Jews).  Frankly, I do find Austrians to be far too prone to supporting mass murder to take your ilk lightly. Syrians, in my experience, are much nicer people. I would still insist on admitting Austrian refugees if anything truly bad happened to that miserable place of yours - good character should not be a requirement for refuge. But, yeah, I would be somewhat worried. And that is even if I forget of all the misery that the House of Habsburg has brough to this land over the centuries!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkpA4Eyc7AM

De la remota playa
Te mira con tristeza
La estúpida nobleza
Del mocho y del traídor.
En lo hondo de su pecho
Ya siente su derrota;
Adiós, mamá Carlota
Adiós, mi tierno amor.
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Omega21
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« Reply #1413 on: July 26, 2016, 09:34:05 PM »


You are the President of Mexico, you can chose from these two options.

Would you accept 200 Asylum seekers from (insert War torn country here) if you knew as soon as you accept them (not saying they do it, but that if you accept them they die, if you don't accept them they won't die):
One Mexican woman is killed brutally and one Mexican 10 year old girl is raped and killed

Would you accept these Asylum seekers at the cost of 2 Mexican lives?

This is i think the ultimate question to see if someone would be a good president.

I have myself signed a petition asking our government to accept 10,000 Syrian refugees - though, of course, I consider that number to be inadequately small - if I had any influence over Mexican policy over this, I would be advocating substantially larger numbers (say, 100,0000 would have been ok for the first few years; I doubt we could easily accept much more at once - we are a poor country - though, of course, we should try). One thing that very much impressed me on a recent trip to Brazil is how visible Syrians are there - you get Syrian food sold at subway entrances (and it is much nicer than the usual Brazilian fare). Actually, I very much envy Brazilians about it - we could definitely use some more Syrian/Middle Eastern food.

I have graver doubts about Austrians, though. Your ancestors have killed far too many of my fellow-tribesmen for that to be easily forgotten. Especially, when you are insisting on reminding it with posts like this one. I mean, you do have decent coffee/pastries and I do like an occasional sausage or schnitzel, but there are still enough children of refugees who fled your ancestors back then around for me to have a decent service on those lines (the Viennese backery on the corner here is delicious - even if it happens to be run by some Jews).  Frankly, I do find Austrians to be far too prone to supporting mass murder to take your ilk lightly. Syrians, in my experience, are much nicer people. I would still insist on admitting Austrian refugees if anything truly bad happened to that miserable place of yours - good character should not be a requirement for refuge. But, yeah, I would be somewhat worried. And that is even if I forget of all the misery that the House of Habsburg has brough to this land over the centuries!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkpA4Eyc7AM

Dude, I'm a Serb who's Great Grandparents were killed by Nazis, Grandfather at Jasenovac, Grandmother at her homestead. Google it, Hitler wanted to erase all Slavs as they were "Untermensch" or People of Lowe value in his sick mind.

And please, no Austrian/German needs to make something up to me, it is not they who killed my Great grandparents, it is the people who are by now 90 years old or 2 meters under soil by now.

And please answer the question as i phrased it

If you knew 2 Mexican lives would be lost for 200 Refugees you accept, who would you choose?

I know it is silly, but it's purely hypothetical and you have danced around the subject.

And don't call Austria miserable. While your government is one of the most corrupt in the World, you have a huge Crime problem, basically no real Social Security (at least not 850 Euro/month), HUGE Inequality, Bad Education, massive Drain of People (10 Mil Mexicans in the US alone, not counting the bunnies that jumped the border illegally). So please, you are in no position to call Austria miserable.

Meanwhile, look at the Most Livable city in the World

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercer_Quality_of_Living_Survey

This is just a monument that you are someone who judges people on the basis of where they come from, as you have said:

Frankly, I do find Austrians to be far too prone to supporting mass murder to take your ilk lightly

I would still insist on admitting Austrian refugees if anything truly bad happened to that miserable place of yours - good character should not be a requirement for refuge

Saying that all Austrians are prone to be mass murderers and that no Austrian has a good character is despicable and only proves you have more prejudices than me, as I would never say "Every Syrian is bad".

No, 80% of them are Good, but I am not willing to risk ANY Native lives or the Security of a country if there is a chance that accepting anyone will lead to this, and as it has been shown, it does lead to this.

If you want, answer the question I asked about who you would choose, and I will not be continuing this after your reply as it is really Off topic.
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ag
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« Reply #1414 on: July 26, 2016, 09:42:19 PM »
« Edited: July 26, 2016, 09:48:41 PM by ag »


If you knew 2 Mexican lives would be lost for 200 Refugees you accept, who would you choose?



Well, I know that 10 Mexicans will be imprisoned for 30 years in a basement for every Austrian who comes here, but you still had a visa-free entry the last time I checked. So, that answers your question.

And, BTW, Serbs do not have such a great reputation either. A raping and murderous bunch you guys are.  That is even if we forget about that shot in Sarajevo. I mean, for every Serb they let in, 1,000,000 innocents die. I am surprized that they let your ancestors come to Austria. I mean, there are no native Serbs in Vienna. To Belgrade! To Belgrade!

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ag
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« Reply #1415 on: July 26, 2016, 09:52:48 PM »



I know it is silly, but it's purely hypothetical and you have danced around the subject.



BTW, I hope you know the meaning of the words "straw man". Trust me I can erect one better.
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Omega21
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« Reply #1416 on: July 26, 2016, 09:54:21 PM »


If you knew 2 Mexican lives would be lost for 200 Refugees you accept, who would you choose?




And, BTW, Serbs do not have such a great reputation either. A raping and murderous bunch you guys are.  That is even if we forget about that shot in Sarajevo. I mean, for every Serb they let in, 1,000,000 innocents die. I am surprized that they let your ancestors come to Austria. I mean, there are no native Serbs in Vienna. To Belgrade! To Belgrade!



This is true, many murdered and pillaged, and it's true for most od the countries in the world at some point in history.

If you want to continue, use Pm.

This is off topic really and we shouldnt spam the Topic anymore.
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ag
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« Reply #1417 on: July 26, 2016, 09:59:43 PM »


If you knew 2 Mexican lives would be lost for 200 Refugees you accept, who would you choose?




And, BTW, Serbs do not have such a great reputation either. A raping and murderous bunch you guys are.  That is even if we forget about that shot in Sarajevo. I mean, for every Serb they let in, 1,000,000 innocents die. I am surprized that they let your ancestors come to Austria. I mean, there are no native Serbs in Vienna. To Belgrade! To Belgrade!



This is true, many murdered and pillaged, and it's true for most od the countries in the world at some point in history.

If you want to continue, use Pm.

This is off topic really and we shouldnt spam the Topic anymore.

Oh, this is very much on topic. You build strawmen - I burn them in public. I do not do this for your benefit - you, obviously, do not get any of it. But I am making a very germaine point - germaine for this very discussion.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1418 on: July 27, 2016, 12:59:53 PM »

Oh man, this is getting ridiculous now ...

Constitutional experts have now found a reason why even the runoff re-vote could be contested again in a close election:

http://kurier.at/politik/stichwahl-werden-30-000-waehler-rechtswidrig-ausgeschlossen/212.145.048

Election law says the number of eligible voters has to be the same for the 1st round and the runoff (and even in case of a re-vote because of a tied runoff or a contested election like we have it now).

But here's the "problem":

The first round was held on April 24, the re-vote on Oct. 2 - which is almost half a year later.

During this half year, about 34.000 people died but another 32.000 would have reached age 16 and would therefore be eligible to vote. But they cannot vote, because of the first round cutoff date.

Obviously, the election law is pretty clear - but if the margin is close, who knows ?

Tongue
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Max Stirner
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« Reply #1419 on: July 27, 2016, 01:07:33 PM »

Austrians are so rich that they can also lose all this time (and money) to unnecessary election
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1420 on: July 27, 2016, 01:41:10 PM »

Austrians are so rich that they can also lose all this time (and money) to unnecessary election

But Heaven forbid they spend that money to help refugees instead!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1421 on: July 27, 2016, 01:44:47 PM »

Austrians are so rich that they can also lose all this time (and money) to unnecessary election

But Heaven forbid they spend that money to help refugees instead!

U serious ?

We spend 1 billion € a year already on those refugees (and all the criminal parasites that come with them). Better ask why the Gulf states or the US are not spending more money on the refugees ...

The election repeat is necessary because the Court ruled so, there's no "spending of money instead".
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Omega21
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« Reply #1422 on: July 27, 2016, 03:59:19 PM »

Austrians are so rich that they can also lose all this time (and money) to unnecessary election

But Heaven forbid they spend that money to help refugees instead!

U serious ?

We spend 1 billion € a year already on those refugees (and all the criminal parasites that come with them). Better ask why the Gulf states or the US are not spending more money on the refugees ...

The election repeat is necessary because the Court ruled so, there's no "spending of money instead".

Oh how i love a sensible Green voter with whom you can actually discuss real issues.
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ag
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« Reply #1423 on: July 27, 2016, 04:23:34 PM »

Oh man, this is getting ridiculous now ...

Constitutional experts have now found a reason why even the runoff re-vote could be contested again in a close election:

http://kurier.at/politik/stichwahl-werden-30-000-waehler-rechtswidrig-ausgeschlossen/212.145.048

Election law says the number of eligible voters has to be the same for the 1st round and the runoff (and even in case of a re-vote because of a tied runoff or a contested election like we have it now).

But here's the "problem":

The first round was held on April 24, the re-vote on Oct. 2 - which is almost half a year later.

During this half year, about 34.000 people died but another 32.000 would have reached age 16 and would therefore be eligible to vote. But they cannot vote, because of the first round cutoff date.

Obviously, the election law is pretty clear - but if the margin is close, who knows ?

Tongue

The fact is, every close election anywhere can be contested. It is the matter of an outcome discontinuity, given the impossibility of exact measurement (of votes, voter intentions, etc.). This is why electoral law should never make overturning the first official result easy. The intellectually honest thing is to make the outcome random, with the probability of the win dependent on the vote share. It should be 100% when the gap is big enough (say, arnd 1%), but it should be continuous in the vote share.
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ag
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« Reply #1424 on: July 27, 2016, 04:24:44 PM »

Austrians are so rich that they can also lose all this time (and money) to unnecessary election

But Heaven forbid they spend that money to help refugees instead!

U serious ?

We spend 1 billion € a year already on those refugees (and all the criminal parasites that come with them). Better ask why the Gulf states or the US are not spending more money on the refugees ...

The election repeat is necessary because the Court ruled so, there's no "spending of money instead".

Oh how i love a sensible Green voter with whom you can actually discuss real issues.

Whell, you choose the one "Green" voter whom many on these boards (your humble servant included) actually consider a Nazi.
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