Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[rob in cal]

   Of course if money savings was a big issue, we in the US could save a lot by going to a unicameral legislature (bye bye Senate), or at the very least unicameral legislature for states. Also, longer terms for elected officials would help, and then there's the massive overstaffing at the voting precincts (I think there's the same amount of people working for a very low turnout special election as there are for the generals)

[ag]

It is not a matter of money. It is a matter of confidence in the electoral system. The insistence on "exactly" counting the votes "exactly" according to some fixed procedure (not motivated by any serious considerations) will always mean that every close election will be viewed as some sort of a fraud. Public should be educated that there is no such thing as "every last vote counts correctly" - it has never happened, because it is simply impossible.

[Hash]

This thread is an abortion. Last warning to keep this thread focused, intelligent and of worth - I will delete any worthless posts. There's enough crass refugee talk in other threads (and forums) so let's try to keep such garbage away from the best board of the forum.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This thread is an abortion. Last warning to keep this thread focused, intelligent and of worth - I will delete any worthless posts. There's enough crass refugee talk in other threads (and forums) so let's try to keep such garbage away from the best board of the forum.

Sorry for sparking that one off. It's hard to resist the temptation of trolling some of these posters.

[Zanas]

Oh man, this is getting ridiculous now ...

Constitutional experts have now found a reason why even the runoff re-vote could be contested again in a close election:

http://kurier.at/politik/stichwahl-werden-30-000-waehler-rechtswidrig-ausgeschlossen/212.145.048

Election law says the number of eligible voters has to be the same for the 1st round and the runoff (and even in case of a re-vote because of a tied runoff or a contested election like we have it now).

But here's the "problem":

The first round was held on April 24, the re-vote on Oct. 2 - which is almost half a year later.

During this half year, about 34.000 people died but another 32.000 would have reached age 16 and would therefore be eligible to vote. But they cannot vote, because of the first round cutoff date.

Obviously, the election law is pretty clear - but if the margin is close, who knows ?

To stay perfectly on topic here, it seems pretty obvious to me that no voter who didn't take part in the first round of an election - and by taking part I mean being eligible to vote - should be eligible to take part in the runoff that was delivered as a result of said first round. The circumstance that this runoff should happen after several month later is absolutely irrelevant to the point, in a legal point of view. Of course, politically and philosophically, the matter could be different.

[Tender Branson]

Oh man, this is getting ridiculous now ...

Constitutional experts have now found a reason why even the runoff re-vote could be contested again in a close election:

http://kurier.at/politik/stichwahl-werden-30-000-waehler-rechtswidrig-ausgeschlossen/212.145.048

Election law says the number of eligible voters has to be the same for the 1st round and the runoff (and even in case of a re-vote because of a tied runoff or a contested election like we have it now).

But here's the "problem":

The first round was held on April 24, the re-vote on Oct. 2 - which is almost half a year later.

During this half year, about 34.000 people died but another 32.000 would have reached age 16 and would therefore be eligible to vote. But they cannot vote, because of the first round cutoff date.

Obviously, the election law is pretty clear - but if the margin is close, who knows ?

To stay perfectly on topic here, it seems pretty obvious to me that no voter who didn't take part in the first round of an election - and by taking part I mean being eligible to vote - should be eligible to take part in the runoff that was delivered as a result of said first round. The circumstance that this runoff should happen after several month later is absolutely irrelevant to the point, in a legal point of view. Of course, politically and philosophically, the matter could be different.

How does it work in France ?

I'm not really sure, because in the 2007 election the number of eligible voters was roughly the same in the 1st round and the runoff, but in 2012 the number was significantly higher in the runoff ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2007#Results

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2012#Results

I'd actually be in favour of updating the voter list for the re-vote, even if the election law says that authorities doesn't have to do it.

Because there's a central registry of voters, it would also not be too hard to add the new 16-year olds and remove the olds who died.

[Tender Branson]

Hofer (FPÖ) expands his lead in the new Gallup poll for Ö24 (n=600, July 26-27, MoE = +/- 4.5%):



"Which issues are most important for you in the presidential runoff re-vote ?"



60% Social Issues/Social Justice
57% Personality of the candidate
56% Security from Terror
55% Asylum policy
49% Representation of Austria abroad

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Hofer-zieht-davon/245402948

[rob in cal]

   Tender, interesting poll.  I wonder if the recent high profile terror attacks are having an effect, even though they aren't in Austria.  Also interesting is that "Asyl politik" is still right up there as a big factor, even though this year hasn't seen as many, I believe, as last year, coming into western Europe.
   Has Hofer said anything about Hungary under Victor Orban? I would think Orban would be a model for Hofer.

[Zanas]

Oh man, this is getting ridiculous now ...

Constitutional experts have now found a reason why even the runoff re-vote could be contested again in a close election:

http://kurier.at/politik/stichwahl-werden-30-000-waehler-rechtswidrig-ausgeschlossen/212.145.048

Election law says the number of eligible voters has to be the same for the 1st round and the runoff (and even in case of a re-vote because of a tied runoff or a contested election like we have it now).

But here's the "problem":

The first round was held on April 24, the re-vote on Oct. 2 - which is almost half a year later.

During this half year, about 34.000 people died but another 32.000 would have reached age 16 and would therefore be eligible to vote. But they cannot vote, because of the first round cutoff date.

Obviously, the election law is pretty clear - but if the margin is close, who knows ?

To stay perfectly on topic here, it seems pretty obvious to me that no voter who didn't take part in the first round of an election - and by taking part I mean being eligible to vote - should be eligible to take part in the runoff that was delivered as a result of said first round. The circumstance that this runoff should happen after several month later is absolutely irrelevant to the point, in a legal point of view. Of course, politically and philosophically, the matter could be different.

How does it work in France ?

I'm not really sure, because in the 2007 election the number of eligible voters was roughly the same in the 1st round and the runoff, but in 2012 the number was significantly higher in the runoff ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2007#Results

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2012#Results

I'd actually be in favour of updating the voter list for the re-vote, even if the election law says that authorities doesn't have to do it.

Because there's a central registry of voters, it would also not be too hard to add the new 16-year olds and remove the olds who died.

Well I'll be damned ! Indeed, in 2012 the number of registered voters actually increased by 38,000 voters between rounds.

However, article L57 of our electoral code clearly says that only voters duely registered for the first round can take part in the second. Only exception is article L34 of said code, which allows voters who consider they have been unrighteously kept away from registry in the first round to take the matter to the local judge between rounds, and said judge can register them to vote in the runoff if they should indeed have been duely registered from the first round on.

But that would mean 38,000 law suits between rounds in the local courts, and I think that would have been noticed... So I'm investigating and will keep in touch !

Normally, the number should go down between rounds, because French officials do cross the deceased out of the registry between rounds.

[Omega21]

  Tender, interesting poll.  I wonder if the recent high profile terror attacks are having an effect, even though they aren't in Austria.  Also interesting is that "Asyl politik" is still right up there as a big factor, even though this year hasn't seen as many, I believe, as last year, coming into western Europe.
   Has Hofer said anything about Hungary under Victor Orban? I would think Orban would be a model for Hofer.

Of course, if we see a few more attacks in Germany/France before October, I would place my bets on Hofer.

People really want straight up answers in these kinds of situations, while the Left are saying "We can do it" the Right just say that they had predicted this and that if they were in power they wouldn't have let them in at all. (Remember, every time a Refugee kills/rapes/robs someone, the Vote for the Right increases a little)
Although a lot of acts of Terrorism are committed by people born there, the one in Nice and the bombing in Germany were not, so these are just bonus talking points for the Right across Europe.

[Tender Branson]

Hofer/FPÖ has won another court battle:

The Tyrolian state SPÖ-leader Ingo Mayr was ordered by a court to stop calling Hofer a "Nazi". He repeatedly referred to Hofer as a Nazi on his Facebook page and was sued by Hofer. Mayr also has to pay 2500€ in damages.

http://derstandard.at/2000041292176/Tiroler-SPOe-Chef-nach-Nazi-Vergleich-schuldig-gesprochen

Mayr (SPÖ) has won the appeal:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/07/29/world/europe/ap-eu-austria-right-wing-candidate.html

[Tender Branson]

The runoff re-vote will already "start" in 1 month, because the postal ballots will be sent out starting in the 1st week of September, after the ballots are printed.

It will be interesting to see if people are now more likely to vote in person, rather than by mail.

I'm still undecided if I'll vote by mail again, but I see no reason why I shouldn't. I have full confidence that everything gets properly counted (=> not a FPÖ-voting conspiracy theorist).

[Tender Branson]

The full Gallup poll (right-click for big version):

Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) is actually quite popular, but the SPÖ is still stuck at 25% - while the FPÖ hits a new polling high with 35%.

Despite Kern's positive numbers, the SPÖVP government has a 36-61 disapproval rating.

[Beezer]

Edit...addressed a comment that was derogatory but off-topic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

unchecked immigration from the Islamic State

Amazing how all four substantive words in this phrase should be in scare quotes.

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) calls the FPÖ and their voters the "forces of darkness" that "need to be kept out of power":

You must be logged in to read this quote.

English Link

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/5059487/Kraefte-der-Finsternis_Kern-warnt-vor-FPO

(needed to correct some errors in the article)

[rob in cal]

   Pretty strong words from Chancellor Kern.  I wonder how SPO Burgenland premier Niessl feels about this.  I guess this means that Kern wouldn't be part of any possible, however unlikely it may be, FPO-SPO federal coalition.

[Omega21]

Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) calls the FPÖ and their voters the "forces of darkness" that "need to be kept out of power":

You must be logged in to read this quote.

English Link

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/5059487/Kraefte-der-Finsternis_Kern-warnt-vor-FPO

(needed to correct some errors in the article)

Just waiting for the Federal Elections so i can see the smile on his face after the First projections.

This will be useful for those who don't follow the polls constantly:

[Tender Branson]

Some guy made a 3D-map of the runoff election, adjusted for population-rich cities (such as Vienna) or places with a low population:





Here you can see the population rich areas:



And the regular map:



http://ourednik.info/maps/2016/07/31/map-the-austrian-presidential-election-in-3d

[Antonio the Sixth]

Neat!

[Tender Branson]

I'm not sure if it's an optical illusion or something, but Vorarlberg (which has hardly any population) is relatively high on that map.

[Tender Branson]

Don't know if anyone noticed it, but the dominant area of the ancient European Celts is not really fond of Hofer:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hallstatt_culture

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Salzkammergut region is the rural green area in the center of Austria.

[Tender Branson]

August will be very lame campaign-wise, because VdB and Hofer will remain on vacation (VdB is hiking the mountains in Tyrol, while Hofer will go on a bike-tour through vote-rich Upper Austria and Lower Austria).

Instead, both the Greens and FPÖ will prepare their campaigns for September:

Herbert Kickl, the campaign "mastermind" from the FPÖ, said that they will focus more on Islamist extremism and terror and try to portray Hofer as a statesman who's best suited to deal with this issue as President.

Lothar Lockl, the campaign "mastermind" from the Greens, said that they will portray VdB as the incumbent who has already won the actual runoff and that they will attack the FPÖ and Hofer on their meandering approach towards "Auxit" (the Exit of Austria from the EU).

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/innenpolitik/Hofburg-Wahl-Van-der-Bellen-in-bergigen-Hoehen-Hofer-auf-Radtour;art385,2304703

[rob in cal]

  Tender, I still fondly remember my week or so spent in the Salzkammergut in the summer of 89. If in fact Hofer is improving in the polls, I wonder if it isn't in just such regions, as opposed to gains in more urban areas.

[Lotuslander]

Tender... a bit of an "out there" query. It involves South Tyrol (and let dead dogs sleep is my motto in that regard).

Nevertheless, back in 2015, a Spectra opinion poll of Austrians stated that 89% both favour a referendum in South Tyrol and 89% also preferred South Tyrol becoming part of Austria.

http://www.thelocal.at/20150126/austrians-in-favour-of-unification-with-south-tyrol

Along those same lines, Hofer is a far-right nationalist and am curious why he does not advocate same in Austria during the presidential election campaign. In Austrian Tyrol, VdB won by 51.4% to 48.6% over Hofer in the previous final ballot.

One would think that Hofer would champion such a South Tyrol referendum during the current campaign in order to perhaps swing the state of Tyrol over to him.

Again, I am just throwing this matter out there. Am against same myself... but curious why far-right Hofer does not champion same?