Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[rob in cal]

   Fascinating that the term Oxit is now in use in an actual political poster.  Also interesting is the poster "for our well-loved Austria", sounds more like what Hofer would use.  I'm thinking VDB should have a poster saying, "for a more diverse, more multi-cultural Austria" as he stands for that much more than Hofer does.

[Tender Branson]

  Fascinating that the term Oxit is now in use in an actual political poster.  Also interesting is the poster "for our well-loved Austria", sounds more like what Hofer would use.  I'm thinking VDB should have a poster saying, "for a more diverse, more multi-cultural Austria" as he stands for that much more than Hofer does.

"... vielgeliebtes Österreich" is actually a verse from the national anthem. So I guess that's why.

Also, VdB continues to use the "homeland" card, something that is typically used by the FPÖ. By using the homeland, they are not leaving the FPÖ their whole traditional playingfield - indicating that the Greens care about the homeland too (just in a different way) ...

[Omega21]

Hofer has revealed his new posters. He will be using the same slogan Thomas Klestil used in 1992..



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Norbert-Hofer-kopiert-Klestil-Slogan/248777792


Meanwhile Tender,

Am I mistaken or do you live in Zell am See?

I read in the news today that some Arabs were very nice to a Police officer, so much so that they bit him, spat on him and kicked him.. Also they threw rocks at a bank, because they didn't like one of the employees.

[Tender Branson]

Hofer has revealed his new posters. He will be using the same slogan Thomas Klestil used in 1992..



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Norbert-Hofer-kopiert-Klestil-Slogan/248777792


Meanwhile Tender,

Am I mistaken or do you live in Zell am See?

I read in the news today that some Arabs were very nice to a Police officer, so much so that they bit him, spat on him and kicked him.. Also they threw rocks at a bank, because they didn't like one of the employees.

I'd say Hofer's design is better but VdB's messages are better.

On the Arabs:

[Omega21]

In a weird series of events it turns out that the slogan was first used by the FPO in 1973, not by Klestil.

[Tender Branson]

Here are both of Hofer's new posters:



"Power needs control."

(that is targeted against the SPÖVP-government, which Hofer wants to "control" as President)



"Austria needs security."

[Tender Branson]

In a weird series of events it turns out that the slogan was first used by the FPO in 1973, not by Klestil.

"(Political) Power needs control" is a relatively common slogan to use, so I guess it was used already before 1973 by some candidate/party ...

[Omega21]

New Poll (Sample 600):

Hofer broadens his lead over VdB.



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Hofer-faehrt-VdB-davon/248809486

[Tender Branson]

Here is the full poll:



71% say they are voting for the same candidate as in the original runoff, 17% say they might switch candidates. 11% are undecided.

Green-voters are unlikely to switch (only 5%), FPÖ-voters are at 16%.

The most likely to switch are ÖVP-voters (26%).

Also interesting: Christian Kern easily leads the Chancellor-vote against the other party leaders.

But if Sebastian Kurz were the new ÖVP-leader, he'd lead Kern by 10.

[Pandaguineapig]

Not sure if there has been actual movement towards hofer or if polls are overestimating him again

[rob in cal]

    Well, if any category of voters would be switchable it makes sense that it would be OVP voters, and that's where Hofers path to victory lies, in getting more of them on board.

[Tender Branson]

Not sure if there has been actual movement towards hofer or if polls are overestimating him again

Hard to tell, because so far only Gallup is polling the race.

The polls didn't really overestimate Hofer in the first two rounds: In the first round they underestimated him by a lot (10%), in the runoff there were hardly any polls at all. Gallup was the most accurate, predicting a 53-47 Hofer win among all voters - but a 50/50 race among certain voters (the 73% who actually voted).

[Tender Branson]

75% of Austrians now back a veil ban (= veils that cover the face, not headscarves)
16% are opposed

There's broad support for this among all parties, except the Greens (39% support, 42% oppose).

Austrians also favour mandatory 1€ community jobs for refugees to better integrate them into society and to make them used to daily work:

73% Support
17% Oppose

ÖVP-voters are the strongest backers of this idea with 83%.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/75-fuer-Burka-Verbot/248953256

[Tender Branson]

The vote will be repeated on September 18.

Leopoldstadt is an SPÖ-stronghold, but the match for second place was extremely tight between the Greens and the FPÖ:

38.6% SPÖ
22.2% Greens
22.1% FPÖ

Another Green Party poster for the repeat vote:



The poster literally means:

"Those who are not voting will have a hangover."

or

"Those who are not voting are having a hangover."

but it actually means:

"Those who are not voting are enabling Blue (=FPÖ). Now, every vote counts."

[Zanas]

Interesting fact : in Eastern France where I lived for a few years, especially in Moselle, people actually said "faire bleu" to mean "not going to school or work". Nobody in the rest of France understands because it's a German calque. I was however not aware that it also meant "having a hangover", but I don't think it's the primary sense, maybe it specialized in that sense in Austrian.

[aross]

Interesting fact : in Eastern France where I lived for a few years, especially in Moselle, people actually said "faire bleu" to mean "not going to school or work". Nobody in the rest of France understands because it's a German calque. I was however not aware that it also meant "having a hangover", but I don't think it's the primary sense, maybe it specialized in that sense in Austrian.

Not where I live, that's exactly what it means to me too.

[Tender Branson]

New Profil/Unique Research poll:

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Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)

67% Excellent/Good (24% excellent, 43% good)
22% Poor/Very Poor (19% poor, 3% very poor)

Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)

51% Excellent/Good (12% excellent, 39% good)
36% Poor/Very Poor (29% poor, 7% very poor)

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-norbert-hofer-chancen-wahlsieg-7540335

[Tender Branson]

There are still 2 weeks of vacation in Austria, so the actual intensive campaign will last only 2-3 weeks.

Still, Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) will present his (amended) campaign platform next Monday.

Here's the new flyer:

[Hnv1]

Tender how do you predict voter turnout for a second time? and who benefits from it?

[Tender Branson]

The "Presse" newspaper writes about an "inverted campaign" of the Presidential candidates (= a behaviour to attract voters, which is contrary to what the candidates did in the first two rounds):

* Norbert Hofer is trying to de-couple himself somehow from the party by focusing more on his personality and family and act more statesman-like (he'll visit Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia in the next weeks to meet with politicians there).

* Alexander VdB on the other hand is doing the opposite: He's appearing mostly in rural areas in the last few weeks to win over the voters there. Recently at a fair, he even grabbed a rifle from a hunter and some journalist took a picture of him. Or he visits a football stadium in Vienna and takes pictures with working-class voters.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/bpwahl/5075782/Der-verkehrte-Wahlkampf

[Tender Branson]

Tender how do you predict voter turnout for a second time? and who benefits from it?

I expect turnout to be about the same (70-74%).

Most polls and personal observations seem to indicate that. My family, friends, co-workers were a bit shocked that they have to vote again, but now things have settled down and most are very motivated again to vote. My family is mostly pro-Hofer, so I can assure you that the Hofer-voters will turn out in full force again. As will the VdB-voters. So, this will be a realllllly close race again.

Anyway, the dynamics of this race increasingly remind me of Hohenems last year - just on the national scale:

A good sign for Norbert Hofer would be the re-vote of the mayoral election in Hohenems last year, which was also ruled invalid by the Constitutional Court because the ÖVP-led city hall handed out several postal ballots to one person who said he'd deliver them (a postal ballot can only be handed out to the person who requested it).

In the actual mayoral runoff, the ÖVP-mayor defeated the FPÖ candidate by 51-49.

In the re-vote, the FPÖ-candidate won by 56-44 (with roughly the same turnout) ...

[rob in cal]

  Tender, both candidates have called for more direct democracy.  Any ideas on exactly what they mean?  Are they supportive of going all-out Swiss, or just small changes of existing laws?

[Tender Branson]

  Tender, both candidates have called for more direct democracy.  Any ideas on exactly what they mean?  Are they supportive of going all-out Swiss, or just small changes of existing laws?

Hofer is the one calling for Swiss-style direct democracy, voting on a number of issues such as TTIP, CETA or immigration-related topics. VdB is for a more modest approach, calling for fewer referendums (only in very important cases, passed by parliament and then to be approved by the voters).

[Tender Branson]

New Kurier/OGM poll:



Below the federal election poll, there are trustworthy ratings for several politicians - with Kurz having the best ratings.

The other questions:

"Do you support Kurz's idea that unemployed asylum seekers should be mandated to do 1€ community jobs ?"

73-19 support

"Do you also support unemployed people with Austrian citizenship or those on welfare who struggle to find a job to do mandatory 1€ community jobs ?"

58-33 support

"Do you support a general facial veil ban ?"

74% support a general ban
16% only in public areas such as town halls, schools, courts etc.
  9% no

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/kurier-ogm-umfrage-hoch-fuer-kurz-schlaegt-nicht-auf-magere-oevp-wahlchancen-durch/218.029.308

[DavidB.]

How are these "1 euro community jobs" not a modern form of slavery? I abhor ideas like that.