Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[DavidB.]

Has the cordon sanitaire been lifted? Is the ÖVP no longer traumatized by the last time there was a FPÖVP coalition?

As far as I know there was never a real cordon sanitaire in Austria. The ÖVP was just tired of the FPÖ and the FPÖ itself had split up + lost popularity because of its screw-ups in government. However, it seems time has healed all the FPÖ's wounds. There are currently coalitions between ÖVP and FPÖ (Upper Austria) and even between SPÖ and FPÖ (Burgenland) on the regional level. While the ÖVP aren't exactly happy to engage in a coalition with the FPÖ again, they would probably do it on the national level as well in the event that the FPÖ were to be as large as the Gallup poll projects and the grand coalition would not have a majority.

Would the EU sanction Austria again in such a case? I doubt it, but I find the idea of sanctioning one of your own members for having the wrong election outcome hard to believe in the first place. What were these sanctions, anyway?

EU member states did this when the FPÖ entered the government in 2000 by freezing all bilateral relations with Austria (which was almost solely a symbolic move), and it backfired spectacularly: in Austria it unified the government parties and strengthened the government's position, and outside Austria it came across as blatantly undemocratic to the extent that it even played a role in Denmark's decision (by referendum) not to implement the euro. At this point, radical right-wing parties have sustained or been part of the government in a large number of EU member states: except for Austria there's also Finland, Denmark and the Netherlands in Western Europe, and let's not start about Eastern European right-wing parties like Fidesz or PiS... A radical right-wing PM in a Western European country would be a first, but apart from that no one in Europe will be surprised over the FPÖ entering the government. These things have happened for almost two decades now. Of course, there will be outrage. But no one can really be surprised anymore. And there will be no sanctions.

[Tender Branson]

The Leopoldstadt by-election yesterday (while only a local election) was still a good sign for the Greens and VdB's chances for the presidential re-vote on Dec. 4:

Turnout dropped significantly (from 65% last year to 37% yesterday). It seems the recent postal ballot controversy and glue-gate kept many centrist people at home. But Green and FPÖ voters were still motivated to vote, but Green voters much more so than FPÖ voters.

Which means, if the presidential re-vote also sees a significant dropoff in turnout, this could help VdB by a lot, because angry voters are staying home and these are the ones Hofer needs ...

[rob in cal]

  Tender, in that case, maybe the delay will benefit Hofer, in that some new political development will take place to change the electoral dynamic.

[Tender Branson]

A businessman from Salzburg lifted a flag in front of his company recently, which first looked like the Austrian one with the federal eagle.

But instead of hammer, sickle and broken chains, he used bananas instead. Because he thought Austria was turning into a "Banana Republic".



Police came and he was charged with "desecration of a state symbol" ...

[Tender Branson]

Strache and Hofer made it onto the TIME magazine cover (Oct. 3 edition):



(Despite not winning any election recently, just getting good results) ...

[Omega21]

Strache and Hofer made it onto the TIME magazine cover (Oct. 3 edition):



(Despite not winning any election recently, just getting good results) ...

Kind of funny how someone can compare Hofer to Trump.

I guess Americans are not satisfied that they are choosing between Devil #1 and Devil #2 in their upcoming election.

[Tender Branson]

In the new Gallup poll (Sept. 20-22, n=800), the SPÖ gets the best numbers since April 2015 (probably because of Chancellor Kern's popularity and his recent visit to New York and the UN, where he took pictures with the Obamas). The FPÖ still remains 7% ahead though.

In the chancellor vote, Kern easily wins. But if Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) takes over as leader, he'd even win the chancellor vote because he's currently the most popular politician in Austria (see ranking at the bottom of the page).

The presidential race remains stuck at 51-49 Hofer/VdB though.

(right-click for high resolution)

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) once again uses direct democracy as a campaign tool, by saying he will only sign CETA and TTIP into law if they are first approved by voters in a referendum (btw: 85% of Austrians are against CETA and TTIP):

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/dossier/ttip/sn/artikel/hofer-bekraeftigt-wunsch-nach-buergerbeteiligung-bei-ceta-215299

[Tender Branson]

After two weeks, it's time for a post again ...

New Gallup poll for Ö24 (n=800, conducted Oct. 4-6 via internet and telephone, MoE = +/- 4%):



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Gleichstand-im-Hofburg-Rennen/253902931

[Tender Branson]

There are still thousands of VdB-posters around here in the cities, all still with the wrong date Oct. 2 on them. They didn't even put a sticker on it with the correct, new date (December 4).

Meanwhile, virtually all of the Hofer-posters have been removed already (the FPÖ says they might issue a new poster wave in November).

[Tender Branson]

Lol, this is going to be another nailbiter, isn't it?

It sure does look like it, but we'll have to wait and see: Hofer dropped by 3% in the past 2 months (although in a single poll => Gallup). Too bad no other pollster bothers to release a poll.

[Tender Branson]

A rare Vorarlberg state election poll by the VN newspaper:



The current state government is ÖVP-Greens.

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll for federal elections:

[Tender Branson]

Finance Minister Schelling (ÖVP) will hold his 2017 Budget Speech in parliament tomorrow.

There will be more money for education, research and business start-ups.

The 2017 budget deficit is forecast to be 1.2% of GDP (after 1.4% this year).

Debt as a percentage of GDP is forecast to drop to 81% (from 86% this year), mostly because the HYPO bad bank debacle was fully solved this week (assets can now be sold, which will bring down debt).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-10/austria-s-heta-drama-ends-with-99-of-bondholders-accepting-deal

http://derstandard.at/2000045719699/Oesterreich-erfuellt-2017-Budgetvorgaben-der-EU

[rob in cal]

   Tender, what are the latest developments with Austria reaching its quota of migrants for the year? I thought it was going to hit the limit around last month.

[Tender Branson]

   Tender, what are the latest developments with Austria reaching its quota of migrants for the year? I thought it was going to hit the limit around last month.

The government initially set a limit of accepting 37.500 asylum seekers for this year.

At the end of September, Austria had 34.700 asylum requests - with an additional 3-4.000 each month.

So, the quota would be reached by the end of October.

But the government has found a way to mislead the population again, by only using "processed" asylum requests for the quota (which is "only" 28.000 so far).

This means that the quota and "emergency measures" will likely not be met for the year, because the govt. is keeping the real numbers down.

Still, the costs for refugees (basic income/welfare, unemployment money, housing benefits, child benefits, German-courses, employment courses etc.) are exploding.

According to the 2017 Budget Speech yesterday, 2.1 billion € will be spent next year on this matter.

http://orf.at/stories/2362039

[Omega21]

   Tender, what are the latest developments with Austria reaching its quota of migrants for the year? I thought it was going to hit the limit around last month.

The government initially set a limit of accepting 37.500 asylum seekers for this year.

At the end of September, Austria had 34.700 asylum requests - with an additional 3-4.000 each month.

So, the quota would be reached by the end of October.

But the government has found a way to mislead the population again, by only using "processed" asylum requests for the quota (which is "only" 28.000 so far).

This means that the quota and "emergency measures" will likely not be met for the year, because the govt. is keeping the real numbers down.

Still, the costs for refugees (basic income/welfare, unemployment money, housing benefits, child benefits, German-courses, employment courses etc.) are exploding.

According to the 2017 Budget Speech yesterday, 2.1 billion € will be spent next year on this matter.

http://orf.at/stories/2362039

That's why I'm paying a course price which tripled from last year. Paying for myself and 2 Refugees..

But don't mind me, I'm just a guy who actually has a passport and a Document stating I'm not a criminal.

[Tender Branson]

VdB is now also under special police protection incl. the COBRA (= Austrian version of SWAT), because he got repeated death threats recently (a 27-year old man in Lower Austria was arrested because of them).

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/10/12/security-upped-for-austrian-politician-after-death-threats.html

Hofer has always been under special police protection so far (incl. protection of his home and family) for 24/7/365. Hofer also repeatedly got death threats from left-leftists.

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ leadership committee has voted to approve CETA today.

This comes after a SPÖ-membership poll showed that 89% of SPÖ party members oppose CETA ...

http://derstandard.at/2000045872712/SPOe-Praesidium-tagt-zu-Ceta

... which could help Hofer in the Presidential election.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian Police is currently staging a massive anti-terror training event in the north of Vienna, in which up to 1.000 police/SWAT/firefighters/emergency people are taking place.

It is assuming a large-scale terror attack similar to Paris, Brussels or Munich - in which some terrorists escape and are on the run through the city.

A whole area in the north is in lockdown, so that traffic and people living nearby won't be impacted.

Also, social media strategies will be discussed and trained (how the police communicates with the population in the case of a terror attack).

This comes after today, the leader of the Austrian Intelligence Service said there was a "high risk of a terror attack in Austria right now".



http://wien.orf.at/news/stories/2803165

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/oesterreich/politik/sn/artikel/verfassungsschutz-sieht-erhoehte-terrorbedrohung-in-oesterreich-218015

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ leadership committee has voted to approve CETA today.

This comes after a SPÖ-membership poll showed that 89% of SPÖ party members oppose CETA ...

http://derstandard.at/2000045872712/SPOe-Praesidium-tagt-zu-Ceta

... which could help Hofer in the Presidential election.

It is not clear when the parliament will vote on the CETA deal, but SPÖ/ÖVP/NEOS support the trade deal, while FPÖ/Greens/TS oppose it.

If they vote on it before Christmas, Austria will likely ratify the deal.

If they vote after the New Year break, then it might fail (because both VdB and Hofer are against the deal). VdB is only a soft opponent though, who said he will "carefully check the deal before signing it". Hofer on the other hand said he won't sign it unless there's a referendum which asks Austrian voters (and they oppose CETA and TTIP with over 80%).

[Tender Branson]

According to the new Profil magazine poll, the SPÖ reaches their highest level since early 2015 - while the ÖVP drops to a new record low:

34% FPÖ
28% SPÖ
18% ÖVP
12% Greens
  6% NEOS
  2% Others

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-spoe-fpoe-7642265

[Hnv1]

Why the procrastination with the reelection? Who is acting president meanwhile?

Tender do you think we'll see a black-red-Neo coalition?

[Tender Branson]

Why the procrastination with the reelection? Who is acting president meanwhile?

Tender do you think we'll see a black-red-Neo coalition?

Doris Bures (SPÖ/center), Karl-Heinz Kopf (ÖVP/right) and Norbert Hofer (FPÖ/left) are acting presidents right now.

Because Bures is the highest-ranked of the 3, she will also administer the swearing in of new army recruits on Austria's national holiday, which will come up at Oct. 26

Other than that, a law passed by parliament needs the signatures of all 3.

And no, I don't see a SPÖVP/NEOS coalition. SPÖVPGreens is more likely. Or FPÖVP.

[peterthlee]

Bold Prediction on 4 Dec re-run-runoff
Nationwide (AT): Van der Bellen 53-47
-----------------------------------------
Burgenland (BL): Safe FPO-Solid, Hofer 58-42
Carinthia (KT): Safe FPO-Strong, Hofer 56-44
Styria (SR): Likely FPO, Hofer 53-47
Salzburg (SB): Tilt I, Van der Bellen 50.5-49.5
Lower Austria (NH): Tilt I, Van der Bellen 51-49
Upper Austria (OH): Likely I, Van der Bellen 54-46
Tyrol (TR): Safe I-Strong, Van der Bellen 57-43
Vorarlberg (VB): Safe I-Solid, Van der Bellen 62-38
Vienna (WN): Safe I-Solid, Van der Bellen 67-33
-----------------------------------------
Contracted forms of states in brackets denote by what I'm going to call the 9 administrative regions.

[Last modified 161114 on self-assigned state codes]