Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Omega21]

Hofer (FPÖ) congratulated Trump on his victory in the US presidential election and said he's confident that the (economic) ties between the two countries can be deepened. He also said that he won't change his campaign style and become more agressive because of the Trump-win, because his strength is that he's authentic.

VdB (Greens) said that the Trump win is a wake-up call for the runoff on Dec. 4 to put the respectful "living together" into the spotlight rather than divison. He also said: "The majority of Americans have elected Trump as their President. This has to be respected." (and while he didn't congratulate him for the win, he said he "wishes him the prudence and emotional awareness to fulfill the job.")

http://www.vienna.at/norbert-hofer-gratuliert-trump-zu-wahlsieg-van-der-bellen-sieht-weckruf/5004025

I actually think that this could help Vdb and wake up some Voters that are scared of the "austrian trump"..

Even though Trump makes Hofer look like a Leftie..

I think VdB now has a good chance to win (again), but that doesn't have to do with Trump's win.

I think Hofer has a mobilisation problem regarding his voters: I talked to many of my co-workers and (extended) family members, and not few of them voted for Hofer in the actual runoff. But the recent delay of the re-vote because of the glue-problems made many say that they are now not voting anymore on December 4, beause they are "sick and tired of all this sh*t" (their words).

VdB-voters (many of them consisting of Green Party, SPÖ, ÖVP and NEOS voters) usually tend to be more unimpressed by this and generally vote in higher numbers (FPÖ-voters are sometimes hard to mobilise).

Also: VdB is still extremely present with his poster campaign in my district. Every town now has at least 10-20 posters along the roads, whereas there were only a few before the initial runoff. VdB's team has increased his presence in the rural areas significantly. In Zell am See, I have spotted easily 50 campaign posters for VdB, but only about 10 or so for Hofer.

I might be totally wrong (like the Hillary-supporters), but his organisation looks pretty good this time.

The same is in 22nd Bezirk (where i live)...

Hofer has NO Posters here, VdB has a lot..

I guess it's since "Donaustadt heißt Lebensqualität", and mostly Middle-Upper Class people live in my part of the 22nd Bezirk..

[Mike88]

Hofer (FPÖ) congratulated Trump on his victory in the US presidential election and said he's confident that the (economic) ties between the two countries can be deepened. He also said that he won't change his campaign style and become more agressive because of the Trump-win, because his strength is that he's authentic.

VdB (Greens) said that the Trump win is a wake-up call for the runoff on Dec. 4 to put the respectful "living together" into the spotlight rather than divison. He also said: "The majority of Americans have elected Trump as their President. This has to be respected." (and while he didn't congratulate him for the win, he said he "wishes him the prudence and emotional awareness to fulfill the job.")

http://www.vienna.at/norbert-hofer-gratuliert-trump-zu-wahlsieg-van-der-bellen-sieht-weckruf/5004025

I actually think that this could help Vdb and wake up some Voters that are scared of the "austrian trump"..

Even though Trump makes Hofer look like a Leftie..

I think VdB now has a good chance to win (again), but that doesn't have to do with Trump's win.

I think Hofer has a mobilisation problem regarding his voters: I talked to many of my co-workers and (extended) family members, and not few of them voted for Hofer in the actual runoff. But the recent delay of the re-vote because of the glue-problems made many say that they are now not voting anymore on December 4, beause they are "sick and tired of all this sh*t" (their words).

VdB-voters (many of them consisting of Green Party, SPÖ, ÖVP and NEOS voters) usually tend to be more unimpressed by this and generally vote in higher numbers (FPÖ-voters are sometimes hard to mobilise).

Also: VdB is still extremely present with his poster campaign in my district. Every town now has at least 10-20 posters along the roads, whereas there were only a few before the initial runoff. VdB's team has increased his presence in the rural areas significantly. In Zell am See, I have spotted easily 50 campaign posters for VdB, but only about 10 or so for Hofer.

I might be totally wrong (like the Hillary-supporters), but his organisation looks pretty good this time.

I hope you' re right, Tender. Not a big fan of the Greens, but VdB is the most sensable choice.

[Simfan34]

Congratulations Herbert Nofer.

[Tender Branson]

Congratulations Norbert Nofer.

Why ?

[Simfan34]

Congratulations  Herbert Nofer.

Why ?

Well, he's certainly going to win now.

[Ljube]

Congratulations  Herbert Nofer.

Why ?

Well, he's certainly going to win now.

That elitist fraud Alexander Van der Bellen even has the same slogan as Crooked Hillary (Stronger together). He will lose bigly.

[Tender Branson]

Congratulations  Herbert Nofer.

Why ?

Well, he's certainly going to win now.

That elitist fraud Alexander Van der Bellen even has the same slogan as Crooked Hillary (Stronger together). He will lose bigly.

I'm not so sure about that, see my post above. The election of Trump might have frightened many Austrians and made them less likely to vote for Hofer now. And motivated VdB's voters even more.

[Tender Branson]

New SORA poll (SORA is Austria's "exit" pollster):

51% Hofer (FPÖ)
49% VdB (Greendependent)

n=802

http://orf.at/stories/2366267

[Ljube]

New SORA poll (SORA is Austria's "exit" pollster):

51% Hofer (FPÖ)
49% VdB (Greendependent)

n=802

http://orf.at/stories/2366267

You should know better than to trust the rigged polls.

[Tender Branson]

New SORA poll (SORA is Austria's "exit" pollster):

51% Hofer (FPÖ)
49% VdB (Greendependent)

n=802

http://orf.at/stories/2366267

You should know better than to trust the rigged polls.

They are not rigged, but they can of course be bad and off (who knows ?). Besides, why would a poll from the exit pollster SORA be rigged ? It shows similar results than other pollsters, such as independent Gallup or Akonsult. And if they were rigged, wouldn't they show a VdB-lead instead (the state-TV ORF, for which SORA polls, after all had a wild dispute with Hofer in the pre-election debate) ?

[Ljube]

New SORA poll (SORA is Austria's "exit" pollster):

51% Hofer (FPÖ)
49% VdB (Greendependent)

n=802

http://orf.at/stories/2366267

You should know better than to trust the rigged polls.

They are not rigged, but they can of course be bad and off (who knows ?). Besides, why would a poll from the exit pollster SORA be rigged ? It shows similar results than other pollsters, such as independent Gallup or Akonsult. And if they were rigged, wouldn't they show a VdB-lead instead (the state-TV ORF, for which SORA polls, after all had a wild dispute with Hofer in the pre-election debate) ?

Two points are nothing. It's within the margin of error.

I expect the real Austrian Hofer to win handily against the elitist VdB.

[Tender Branson]

New Profil/Unique Research poll:

49% Hofer (FPÖ)
45% VdB (Greens)
  6% undecided

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-hofer-vanderbellen-heimat-7678481

[Tender Branson]

Hofer gave an English interview to Sputnik Serbia recently, when he visited the country on Nov. 8:

Hofer to Austria's Rescue? Presidential Candidate Has Plan to End Migrant Crisis

With less than a month left until the presidential election in Austria, the Freedom Party’s candidate, Eurosceptic Norbert Hofer prepares for the voting, carefully considering how he should steward the country in the event of success.



During the second round of the presidential election this year, Hofer received 49.7 percent of vote; his opponent, independent candidate Alexander Van der Bellen, got 50.3 percent. However, due to numerous infractions committed during the election, the Constitutional Court annulled the results, and a runoff vote has been scheduled for December 4.

During an interview with Sputnik Serbian, Hofer explained that if he becomes president, relations between Austria and Russia are definitely bound to improve.

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At the same time, despite the growing popularity of rightist movements in Europe, he believes it is very unlikely that the far right poses a threat to the nations of Europe. Instead, he argued, Europe should focus its attentions on problems it is already facing, like the rise of  ISIL/ISIS and the migrant crisis. The latter, Hofer said, may in fact be resolved by establishing a safe zone for refugees, but in North Africa rather that in Europe.

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He further explained that such a zone could also be used to process refugees and to determine whether any of them are eligible for asylum in Europe, without forcing people to depend on smugglers and risk their lives at sea in order to reach the continent. According to Hofer, if the EU manages to learn valuable lessons from the crisis it is currently facing, the union will emerge stronger that before from this ordeal.

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https://sputniknews.com/politics/201611111047339593-hofer-migrant-crisis-solution

[Tender Branson]

Terrible news for VdB coming out of Styria right now:

http://derstandard.at/2000047407786/Kapfenberg-Die-Zukunft-des-Voest-Standortes-steht-auf-dem-Spiel

The VOEST, Austria's biggest steel company might pull out of the state and close a major plant there "in the near future", because of rising energy prices. They might open a steel plant in a cheaper country, like ... Mexico.

The plant has 3.000 workers and if true, Styria (which already trended strongly to Hofer in the original runoff), might end up like West Virginia if this story gets more headlines in the next weeks ...

[Tender Branson]

Hofer got this letter from a small girl recently, which "deeply moved him":

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LOL.

[Tender Branson]

There are going to be at least 4 (!) debates before the runoff.

As if we didn' see enough from them in the past 6-8 debates already ...

[Tender Branson]

VdB (Greens) had his official campaign kickoff event today (the 4th already) at the Vienna Marx Palace, in which he invoked "Lord of the Rings": Austria must not become an "Alpine Mordor" he said, with Hofer winning the Presidency first and then the FPÖ winning the federal election in 2017 or 2018, forming a far-right/conservative government. Or a so-called "Blue Republic", in which the FPÖ controls the government, the Presidency and the 1st parliamentary president. "We don't need extreme experiments", he said "I want an open, tolerant, peaceful, enlightened, successful Austria."



He also got a lot of help from ÖVP politicians (even though actual ÖVP-voters seem to be about 50-50 in their support for VdB and Hofer) and NEOS politicians. In their speeches they urged undecideds and previous non-voters to back VdB this time.

http://derstandard.at/2000047618396/Hofburgwahl-Van-der-Bellen-warnt-vor-Alpen-Mordor

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Weird question: why does Austria use PR and not MMp like Germany?

[Omega21]

Kind of think that the Candidate that gets more support from the Media and other Political elites will lose in the end, since we did see that with both Trump and Brexit, as both got the Support of the Media and endorsements from various Politicians.

On another note, I saw a few private cars driving around with printed messages saying "don't wonder, Vote on 4.12. VdB X". Hofer has a really bad campaign in the Wealthier Bezirk's, but when I go to the more "enriched" and poor ones it seems like he has a much stronger presence there.

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow, the 1st of the 4 additional presidential debates will take place between VdB and Hofer.

But the one tomorrow is rather meaningless, because it is shown on Ö24 TV - which is a very new TV channel from the tabloid "Österreich" and has virtually no viewers. It only exists for like a month or so.

The PULS 4 debate on Sunday (Nov. 20) will be more important.

ATV will have their debate on the 27th.

The most important debate will be the ORF debate on Thursday, Dec. 1, just ahead of the election. About 1/4 eligible voters will watch this debate. Or every third, with the ORF's internet streaming service included.

[Tender Branson]

The final number of eligible voters is out:

6.399.572 people will be eligible to vote on Dec. 4

That is up from the 6.382.507 people in the original May runoff.

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/bundespraes/bpw_2016/Wahlberechtigte_2WG.aspx

The increase of 17.000 is mostly because of Austrians abroad, which were responsible for about 14.000 additional voters.

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/bundespraes/bpw_2016/FILES/EWB_BPW16_WW.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Interesting fact:

Even though about 500.000 Austrians are living abroad, not many of them are registered to vote.

Austrians abroad need to register to vote on their own, like it is the case with all voters in the US.

Still, there seems to be increased enthusiasm among Austrians abroad to vote because their number increased from about 43.000 in the May runoff to 57.000 now ...

[DavidB.]

Can't I change my vote in this poll? I want the madness to end.

[Tender Branson]

Can't I change my vote in this poll? I want the madness to end.

There's a new poll in which you can vote:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252720.0

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls today.

First, the "Meinungsraum" poll (which is already from late October, so basically outdated and useless):

50% VdB
50% Hofer

VdB wins SPÖ-voters by 83-10 and ÖVP-voters by 51-35.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/bp-wahl-kopf-an-kopf-rennen-mehr-unentschlossene-vp-als-sp-waehler/231.127.236

Then, there's the new Gallup poll (conducted between Nov. 14-16, with a sample of 800 people):



Who do you think benefits most from Trump's win in the US ?



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Hofer-zieht-in-Umfrage-davon/258808210