Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[rob in cal]

   Well, I think the polls in for the first round were way off, but that was a multi-candidate field.  For the second round they were pretty close, IIRC, predicting a very close finish which we got.

[aross]

Weird question: why does Austria use PR and not MMp like Germany?

Sorry, this is a bit late as I’ve been busy.

Well, as you probably know the unprecedented introduction of MMP in Germany was very much inspired by the experience of Weimar and the obscene disproportionality and ungovernability etc etc.  MMP was actually one of the most proportional options considered by the Parliamentary Council (the body responsible for drafting Germany's post-war constitution and making preparations for the first Bundestag election). It was passed at the last minute as a provisional law for the first election only by the SPD and the smaller parties against the wishes of the right (CDU/CSU and much of the emerging FDP). At the time it was seen as a rather odd accident and not really expected to last, indeed there were many proposals to revise it during the early Bundesrepublik (the last and most remembered being the First Grand Coalition’s plans to introduce 3- or 4-member D’Hondt) and  it was significantly amended for the 1953 election. What I’m getting at is that, if anything, MMP is the historical accident, not the other way round.

It also reflects the countries’ different post-war approaches - Germany's 'fresh start' and 4 years' wait for elections versus continuity in Austria. The old constitution (which required PR anyway and MMP at the time was definitely not seen as that) was reintroduced along with the old electoral law and the first election held just 6 months after the end of the war. Not much opportunity to revise things and no party had much interest in it anyway. There’s been a limited amount of discussion on electoral reform at various points since then including a certain Graz professor being given rather too much attention which has resulted in ‘a majoritarian system’ meaning majority bonuses in media parlance and MMP naturally occasionally figures in that but not really in a major way mainly as, well, it wouldn’t really change that much. Particularly as what electoral reform proponents here are generally looking for is a way to force Team Proporz apart. Oh and NEOS are officially in favour and not even they themselves care.

[Tender Branson]

I had to drive around the Zell am See area today and all VdB posters around here have been refurbished and "updated" to the new ones I posted above yesterday night it seems.

The new ones are really colourful and stick out along the road and read "Vote ! Instead of wondering (what's possible)." and so on ...

I think the "Vote ! Not wonder." is a good mobilizing poster that will bring the VdB voters to the polls.

I also spotted more Hofer posters around, but the VdB posters in the city and surroundings still outnumber the Hofer posters by about 10-1. It was the opposite before the first runoff.

Based on the posters alone (if they mean anything for voters), VdB should do rather well around here (after losing the district by 42-58 in May).

[Ljube]

I had to drive around the Zell am See area today and all VdB posters around here have been refurbished and "updated" to the new ones I posted above yesterday night it seems.

The new ones are really colourful and stick out along the road and read "Vote ! Instead of wondering (what's possible)." and so on ...

I think the "Vote ! Not wonder." is a good mobilizing poster that will bring the VdB voters to the polls.

I also spotted more Hofer posters around, but the VdB posters in the city and surroundings still outnumber the Hofer posters by about 10-1. It was the opposite before the first runoff.

Based on the posters alone (if they mean anything for voters), VdB should do rather well around here (after losing the district by 42-58 in May).

No. Those VdB posters will only irritate the Hofer voters and VdB will lose even worse.

[Tender Branson]

Prof. Elisabeth Wehling from the Univ. of Berkeley, CA - who's an expert on linguistics and sociology - analyzed the presidential campaigns and rhetoric of Hofer and VdB and found clear evidence that Hofer will win the election on Dec. 4.



Wehling already predicted that Trump would win the election and she won a 1000$ bet. She also did an experiment with US-voters before the election that highlighted how emotions led voters to Trump.

http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/was-wollen-uns-die-kandidaten-sagen-frau-wehling-sprachanalyse-story-540002

http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/alpen-mordor-sager-schadet-van-der-bellen-sprachforscherin-story-540096

[Tender Branson]

Tonight, the 2nd of 4 debates will take place at PULS 4.

We will get a poll during and after the debate from OGM (which is a pretty good pollster here).

The debate starts at 8:15 local time and will have an audience with questions.

Live stream:

http://www.puls4.com

[Tender Branson]

Debate starts now !

[Tender Branson]

[Tender Branson]

Audience is definitely pro-VdB ...

[Tender Branson]

First debate topic is Hofer's professional rhetoric style (he's a trained communication coach) and the hidden rhetorical tricks he's applying in debates and speeches to win over voters.

[Tender Branson]

VdB gets asked if he's authentic if he appears more and more in the countryside to win over voters there, when his vote is basically all urban or suburban ...

A picture is shown with a grim-looking VdB, who holds a rifle which he got handed over at a campaign event.

[Tender Branson]

Now the European Union, which VdB says is a Freedom Project and that the FPÖ wants to destroy it.

Hofer says the EU is flawed and needs to be reformed. He also says he's against an Auxit, even though he hosted and kissed Marine Le Pen recently, who wants to destroy the EU and a Frexit.

[Tender Branson]

VdB says Hofer eats a lot of chalk ...

[Tender Branson]

VdB attacks Hofer on the Auxit and Hofer/FPÖ's misleading comments about it.

"The young people will have to pay the bill for your actions if you are elected. You are playing with fire."

[Tender Branson]

Hofer: "At one point we will have to ask the PEOPLE if this European Union is still the union that they voted for to join in 1995."

[Tender Branson]

VdB: "The President has NO power to set a referendum on the exit from the EU, Mr. Hofer. Only the parliament can set such a referendum."

[Tender Branson]

Next topic: Turkey (and Erdogan-backing Austrian citizens with Turkish background in Austria)

Hofer wants to abolish double-citizenships for them. VdB supports the Erdogan supporters*.

* a point where I and many other Green voters strongly disagree with him

[Tender Branson]

Hofer: "There are problems with Muslim hospital workers. He cites a study from the University of Vienna, which says that many Muslim hospital workers have problems shaking the hands of patients etc."

VdB: "I like that you read University studies."

[Tender Branson]

Somehow the debate now shifted to the IS and hidden supporters here ...

[Tender Branson]

Hofer gets asked if he supports Strache's (FPÖ-leader) comments that Merkel and Renzi are the world's biggest people smugglers ... Hofer replies centrist and says he'd phrase it differently but Merkel's welcome policy was a big mistake.

VdB: "Merkel is a great, or one of the greatest politicians. The welcome policy was just fine."

[Tender Branson]

Now the refugee crisis.

VdB makes an emotional argument for the welcome policy, by asking Hofer and people at home to imagine living in Aleppo and their house gets bombed and they have to flee with their children.

[Tender Branson]

Hofer's reply: "277.000€ per refugee. These are the figures. For the taxpayer."

[Tender Branson]

Almost an hour into the debate now: TRUMP !

[Tender Branson]

VdB: "I will ... what's the word ? - deal - with him when I'm invited to the US." (before a clip was played from early 2016 in which VdB endorsed Bernie Sanders and later Hillary Clinton)

Hofer: "The US is an important trade partner for Austria, so it is essential for me as President to have really good relations with the POTUS."

[Tender Branson]

Hofer attacks the US campaign between Hillary and Trump as "extremely dirty".