Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[PresidentSamTilden]

LOL! Signs of desperation.

Similar attempts were made by Crooked Hillary. They failed miserably.

You couldn't have illustrated her point better if you tried.

[Tender Branson]

LOL! Signs of desperation.

Similar attempts were made by Crooked Hillary. They failed miserably.

You couldn't have illustrated her point better if you tried.

Her video could indeed energize the VdB voters even more to turn out and vote.

[Tender Branson]

Hofer out with another closing ad, this time a very presidential one in which he narrates his vision of a good President, to the images of campaign stops and meetings with voters:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bqB1RV46YA

[Tender Branson]

25.000 postal ballots were requested in the city of Graz so far, down from 28.000 at the same point before the May runoff.

Looks like my gut feeling that glue-gate led to fewer requests this time was right ...

[Tender Branson]

25.000 postal ballots were requested in the city of Graz so far, down from 28.000 at the same point before the May runoff.

Looks like my gut feeling that glue-gate led to fewer requests this time was right ...

On the other hand, the city of Wels reports far fewer absentee requests so far:

2.600 vs. 4.900 for the May runoff

While in Graz about 73% of postal voters voted for VdB, about 58% did so in Wels.

Don't really know what this tells us ...

[Tender Branson]

There are likely no more presidential polls coming out over the next week, because everyone knows that this is a 50/50 race, but OGM still did a poll surrounding the presidential race for the "Kurier" (conducted Nov. 23-24):

Projected turnout: 69% (-4)

(Turnout is projected to be higher among old voters, young voters are lowest with only 55-58%)

86% say they have already decided on their vote choice
13% say they are still undecided

(29% of ÖVP-voters and 22% of SPÖ-voters are still undecided about their vote choice)

57% of Hofer-voters say they are voting for him out of conviction

VdB-voters are split: 39% are voting for him out of conviction, 34% to stop Hofer

32% say the Hofer campaign has mostly campaigned unfairly
18% say the VdB campaign did so
31% say both campaigns have campaigned unfairly
  9% say neither campaign did so

42% say that the campaign so far was particularly muddy
49% say that the campaign so far is no different to other election campaigns

26% prefer snap federal elections next year
63% prefer the next federal elections to be held at the regular 2018 date

29% say that a President Hofer would help the FPÖ in the next federal elections
23% say that a President Hofer would hurt the FPÖ in the next federal elections

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/jeder-zehnte-weiss-noch-nicht-wen-er-waehlen-soll/232.764.350

[Tender Branson]

Interesting side fact:

For a short period in January (Jan.1 to Jan. 26), 3 of Austria's 4 highest-ranking political offices will be female:

* The President (currently an acting trio of Doris Bures, Karlheinz Kopf and Norbert Hofer - with Bures being the highest ranked of them)

* The President of the National Council (currently the above-mentioned Doris Bures)

* The President of the Federal Council (Sonja Ledl-Rossmann - starting on Jan. 1, 2017)

The 4th is Chancellor Christian Kern.

On Jan. 26th, 2017 the new President will be sworn into office.

[Tender Branson]

Tonight is the 3rd of 4 debates, this time on ATV (a minor channel).

I don't think we'll get a poll on who won this time ...

The most important debate will be the big ORF debate on Thursday, which is watched by 1/3 to 1/4th of voters.

[Tender Branson]

VdB has outspent Hofer by 3.5 million € to 2.6 million € in the second runoff.

For all 3 elections combined, VdB spent 7.1 million € and Hofer 5.9 million €

The other 4 candidates spent around 7 million € in the first round.

So, combined this Presidential election had spending of 20 million € so far.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/hofburg-wahl-insgesamt-ueber-sieben-millionen-euro-zuwendungen-fuer-van-der-bellen-sechs-millionen-fuer-hofer/232.916.861

[rob in cal]

  Tender, when will we get country-wide numbers for total postal ballots requested?

[Tender Branson]

  Tender, when will we get country-wide numbers for total postal ballots requested?

Friday evening or Saturday.

Postal ballots can be requested online, written and personally until Wednesday and personally (with immediate pickup) until Friday 5pm.

[windjammer]

So considering 2016 has been a disaster, I suppose Hofer is going to win this?


Is Strache the likeliest next chancellor?

[Tender Branson]

So considering 2016 has been a disaster, I suppose Hofer is going to win this?

Is Strache the likeliest next chancellor?

Don't be so gloomy.

It is totally unclear if Hofer will win this and if he does somehow, a President Hofer could be bad for the chances of a Chancellor Strache. Austrians don't like a total takeover of the FPÖ and want checks and balances.

[Tender Branson]

The 3rd debate between VdB and Hofer starts in 3 minutes.

[Tender Branson]

Both candidates look very worn out today.

VdB looks extremely old (like 90 or something) and Hofer looks very tired.

The first segment of the debate was about the campaign style and rhetoric and the attacks against each other, the destruction of campaign posters and the US campaign of Hillary and Trump.

[Tender Branson]

Hofer to immediately visit the US, Russia and China after his (possible) election as President.

He already got official invitations from all 3 countries, he said.

[Tender Branson]

Hofer posters have popped up like mushrooms around here over the weekend.

They now match the hundreds of VdB posters around the area. There's about one poster every 30 meters or something. It's pretty crazy.

Also, turnout: Virtually everyone I have talked to over the past week says they'll vote again on Sunday (or have already voted absentee, like me). So, based on my experience turnout will be quite high again.

[rob in cal]

   Tender, interesting observations.  I believe a few weeks ago you were thinking that turnout might be weaker among some pro-Hofer voters that you knew, so do you sense that they too will be voting?

[Tender Branson]

   Tender, interesting observations.  I believe a few weeks ago you were thinking that turnout might be weaker among some pro-Hofer voters that you knew, so do you sense that they too will be voting?

My observations are based on talks with around 20-30 people I know, in my family and among work colleagues. The sample is about 2/3 Hofer-voters in May, not surprising considering my family's political lean and those of my co-workers and how the area votes itself.

In general, enthusiasm to vote should be roughly the same for both sides. But that is just my subjective observation.

[Tender Branson]

Vienna will host a "F**k Hofer !" rally on Saturday, the day before the election:

[Omega21]

Vienna will host a "F**k Hofer !" rally on Saturday, the day before the election:

I guess if a  VdB rally was held Austria would be labeled as Nazi Land.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Vienna will host a "F**k Hofer !" rally on Saturday, the day before the election:

Feminism, you c**nts!!

(former Die PARTEI election slogan)

[palandio]

I fear that now might not be the right moment for posters like this. I mean, provocative messaging has it's right of being when promoting your political causes, but a poster like this directed at the general audience might even help Hofer in the short term. (And before someone asks: I know that the VdB campaign is not responsible for the poster.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

I fear that now might not be the right moment for posters like this. I mean, provocative messaging has it's right of being when promoting your political causes, but a poster like this directed at the general audience might even help Hofer in the short term. (And before someone asks: I know that the VdB campaign is not responsible for the poster.)

Unless it sparks a general public debate and news is reporting about nothing else (which is unlikely), that poster won't have any impact on the election results at all.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i don't think many last-minute things can really influence a race which has run for over a year.

everyone's mind is settled, so it's all about turnout.