Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

Turnout: 74% (+1.5)

!!!

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg State won by VdB (=> pickup).

[windjammer]

Salzburg State won by VdB (=> pickup).

Is a FPO-OVP coalition likely?

[Tender Branson]

So what exactly happened? Why did Hofer lose so badly?

Austrians don't like radical experiments.

[reciprocity]

I am much happier than last time vdB won. Not only is the mandate seemingly much bigger, but I think the establishment got the message that it needed to change. Getting rid of Faymann helped a lot as well.

[ApatheticAustrian]

So what exactly happened? Why did Hofer lose so badly?

maybe blaming for the repeated election...and we don't like too much change.

and once again...the polls were wrong.

[Mike88]

Looking at the map, VdB numbers improved strongly in rural areas. Any reason for that? Perhaps OVP voters that switched from Hofer to VbB?

[Tender Branson]

Looking at the map, VdB numbers improved strongly in rural areas. Any reason for that? Perhaps OVP voters that switched from Hofer to VbB?

VdB had a much better poster coverage this time around.

Before the May runoff, Hofer had 10 times more posters around here than VdB - now it was virtually even.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hofer's campaign was more aggressive than in the first run around, I note...

[Xing]

Thank you, Austria, for rejecting nationalism and not giving in to xenophobia, something my country unfortunately failed to do.

[Tender Branson]

New projection:

53.3% VdB
46.7% Hofer

(MoE of this projection: +/- 1%)

Based on 70% of precincts, which are now counted.

[Mike88]

Looking at the map, VdB numbers improved strongly in rural areas. Any reason for that? Perhaps OVP voters that switched from Hofer to VbB?

VdB had a much better poster coverage this time around.

Before the May runoff, Hofer had 10 times more posters around here than VdB - now it was virtually even.

Interesting. So VdB fought really hard to ensure that he would have a strong postal vote even if he had a good voting day result. Hofer, on the other hand, got complacent and thought the tide was in his favour.

[Tender Branson]

Looking at the map, VdB numbers improved strongly in rural areas. Any reason for that? Perhaps OVP voters that switched from Hofer to VbB?

VdB had a much better poster coverage this time around.

Before the May runoff, Hofer had 10 times more posters around here than VdB - now it was virtually even.

Interesting. So VdB fought really hard to ensure that he would have a strong postal vote even if he had a good voting day result. Hofer, on the other hand, got complacent and thought the tide was in his favour.

It was more that VdB fought hard for the rural areas, while Hofer had not much further room left in the urban areas ...

[Angel of Death]

So what exactly happened? Why did Hofer lose so badly?

My guesses are:

• Pushback against/fear of complacency after Brexit and Trump.
• Relegitimization of the previous run.

[Mike88]

Looking at the map, VdB numbers improved strongly in rural areas. Any reason for that? Perhaps OVP voters that switched from Hofer to VbB?

VdB had a much better poster coverage this time around.

Before the May runoff, Hofer had 10 times more posters around here than VdB - now it was virtually even.

Interesting. So VdB fought really hard to ensure that he would have a strong postal vote even if he had a good voting day result. Hofer, on the other hand, got complacent and thought the tide was in his favour.

It was more that VdB fought hard for the rural areas, while Hofer had not much further room left in the urban areas ...

Yes. The Hofer point i made, is because i think that after Trump's win the right wing in Europe thought they were unstoppable and they got cocky, especially in Austria after seeing the debates.

[ApatheticAustrian]

interviews with party operatives.....green party leader glawischnig turned to hofer-voting ÖVP-executive secretary reinhard lopatka to thank him for the support of VdB-voting ÖVP-chief reinhold mitterlehner.

better than christmas.

[kyc0705]

PRAISE BE PRAISE BE PRAISE BE

[Tender Branson]

Austria: The Colorado of EUrope !

[Mike88]

Austria: The Colorado of EUrope !

So, you guys border the New Mexico of Europe, Portugal.

[bore]

I think this result is another argument in favour of the theory that people really don't like voting more than they have to.

[MT Treasurer]

This is what happens when left-wing parties don't nominate a candidate with historic unfavorable ratings.

[Tender Branson]

Also a big defeat for Nigel Farage who said "he'd bet all his money on a Hofer-win" ...

[ApatheticAustrian]

liberal NEOs party chief: nigel farage's auxit projections killed hofer.

thanks nigel

[Tender Branson]

So when will the next attempt take place?

2022.

Strache (FP-leader) just said that the party will not contest the election anymore (what a surprise).

[The Other Castro]

Hofer has conceded:

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Facebook says this translates to:

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https://www.facebook.com/norberthofer2016/?fref=ts