Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[jimrtex]

Official final results, with all postal ballots counted:

53.8% VdB (+3.5%)
46.2% Hofer

Turnout: 74.2% (+1.5%)

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at

I was at a restaurant a while back, and there was something odd about the waiter's name on the receipt, which caused me to ask what his name was (I can't remember what struck me as odd).

But anyhow he said that his last name was Van Something, and that it was Dutch. He then offered that it had actually been Von Something, but that an ancestor (perhaps his great-grandfather had ended up in the Netherlands after World War II and changed the name, and subsequently immigrated to the United States. He also said it was a family secret that the ancestor had done some bad things during WWII - he didn't provide details, and said it was not a source of family pride.

So I was wondering about Van der Bellen. I found the answer in the Wikipedia.

So my question does his name have any impact on Austrian electoral perceptions? (e.g. that he isn't really Austrian, etc.?)

[ApatheticAustrian]

@jimrtex....as far as i know.....no, that wasn't part of the public debate.

on the other hand, he is a known man, was in public life for decades and austrian names usually are mixed cause of immigration and, even more important, heritage of the empire.

and....to be totally honest..... people who usually doubt the "austrianity" of other people usually work with eastern names like adamovich (jörg haider once joked about the former leading judge of our constituional court that someone with such a name should be asked for his green card) and not with german/dutch names.....contrary to swiss nationalists, our right-wing loves germany and all things german.

[Tender Branson]

The APA (Austrian Press Agency) page is now fully updated, incl. maps down to the city level:

http://visual.apa.at/presidential_2sw

Above the map it says "1. Stichwahl" and "2. Stichwahl", which means you can watch the results of the May runoff and the December runoff.

If you click on "Gemeinde", it will show town results.

"Bezirke" = Districts

"Bundesländer" = States

If you click on "Hofer" below the map, it will show Hofer's strength by admin. division

Same for "VdB".

"Wählerwechsel" means which towns, districts, states have flipped to VdB between the two runoffs (2 towns actually flipped over to Hofer, lol).

Below that, there's a voter stream analysis for the May and December runoff.

At the bottom, turnout figures for all 3 rounds.

[MaxQue]

Official final results, with all postal ballots counted:

53.8% VdB (+3.5%)
46.2% Hofer

Turnout: 74.2% (+1.5%)

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at

I was at a restaurant a while back, and there was something odd about the waiter's name on the receipt, which caused me to ask what his name was (I can't remember what struck me as odd).

But anyhow he said that his last name was Van Something, and that it was Dutch. He then offered that it had actually been Von Something, but that an ancestor (perhaps his great-grandfather had ended up in the Netherlands after World War II and changed the name, and subsequently immigrated to the United States. He also said it was a family secret that the ancestor had done some bad things during WWII - he didn't provide details, and said it was not a source of family pride.

So I was wondering about Van der Bellen. I found the answer in the Wikipedia.

So my question does his name have any impact on Austrian electoral perceptions? (e.g. that he isn't really Austrian, etc.?)

Netherlands was part of the Hapsburg Empire, at a point.

[Tender Branson]

Official final results, with all postal ballots counted:

53.8% VdB (+3.5%)
46.2% Hofer

Turnout: 74.2% (+1.5%)

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at

I was at a restaurant a while back, and there was something odd about the waiter's name on the receipt, which caused me to ask what his name was (I can't remember what struck me as odd).

But anyhow he said that his last name was Van Something, and that it was Dutch. He then offered that it had actually been Von Something, but that an ancestor (perhaps his great-grandfather had ended up in the Netherlands after World War II and changed the name, and subsequently immigrated to the United States. He also said it was a family secret that the ancestor had done some bad things during WWII - he didn't provide details, and said it was not a source of family pride.

So I was wondering about Van der Bellen. I found the answer in the Wikipedia.

So my question does his name have any impact on Austrian electoral perceptions? (e.g. that he isn't really Austrian, etc.?)

Netherlands was part of the Hapsburg Empire, at a point.

From what I have seen, the FPÖ (or better, some people within the party) attacked VdB's father for being a secret Nazi or Nazi aide.

But nobody ever attacked VdB himself about his citizenship or "Austrian-ness" (like the GOP did with Obama after he won).

In fact, the migration background of VdB's parents (his father being a Russian and his mother an Estonian) might have helped him among left-wing circles: He often referred to himself as a "refugee child" (his family settled in Tyrol after WW2), knowing firsthand the struggles of refugees and people in need.

[rob in cal]

  Vdb family history is really interesting.  His grandfather was the governor of Pskov district during the short-lived Russian provisional government in 1917 IIRC.  Then his parents were able to flee Estonia right before full Soviet annexation in 1940 coming to Vienna and then fleeing the Soviets again toward the end of the war.  I wonder how many of Vdb's more left leaning voters realize what a fate his family escaped from. Due to his fathers noble background, wealth, émigré status, flight from Estonia in 1940 etc there's a pretty stong likelihood that a grim fate awaited them if they fell into Soviet hands.  Certainly a more interesting family background then your typical standard issue politician.

[Angel of Death]

I guess many people in the rural areas, ESPECIALLY in the tourism-dominated western states, also re-considered for VdB because of what a Hofer-win would mean to tourism: It could have created a bad image abroad and tourists would have stayed away.

Did Austria's tourism sector get any noticeable hit after the FPÖ entered government in 2000?

not a fair comparison cause of the EU sanctions.

I'm still genuinely curious to know.

[Tender Branson]

I guess many people in the rural areas, ESPECIALLY in the tourism-dominated western states, also re-considered for VdB because of what a Hofer-win would mean to tourism: It could have created a bad image abroad and tourists would have stayed away.

Did Austria's tourism sector get any noticeable hit after the FPÖ entered government in 2000?

not a fair comparison cause of the EU sanctions.

I'm still genuinely curious to know.

A look at the Statistical Yearbook 2017 reveals that tourism in general went up between 2000 and 2006, but mostly due to domestic (= Austrian) tourists vacationing somewhere in the country. In the 6 years, stays from foreign tourists in Austria stagnated. They went up before 2000 and also up again after 2006.

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/publications_services/statistisches_jahrbuch/index.html

So, the FPÖ in government might have had some effects on foreigners vacationing here - but other factors might also be possible for the stagnation.

[rob in cal]

  For Americans when they visit Austria it seems that the main places they talk about going to are Salzburg, the Tyrol and Vienna, and maybe the abbey at Melk. Intresting places to be sure but there are so many others. I posted about the beauty of Carinthia and the Worthersee area on a European travel forum that is predominately for US tourists and hardly anyone had either heard of the lake or the region.

[Tender Branson]

An article about how Austria's women propelled VdB to victory:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/kathy-sheridan-the-women-of-austria-may-have-saved-europe-1.2895161

Also interesting:

69% of young women (between 16 and 29 years) voted for VdB, but only 47% of young men.

Also: women with a higher school degree voted VdB with 82-18 (compared to 72-28 among men with a higher degree). Among women without a degree, it was 52-48 VdB, but among men without a degree it was 68-32 Hofer ...

[Tender Branson]

UKIPs explanation about why Hofer lost:

Austrians have not been raped and murdered enough yet by foreigners.

http://mobil.derstandard.at/2000048920739/Farage-Intimus-Hofer-verlor-weilOesterreicher-noch-nicht-genug-Vergewaltigungen-und

[The Other Castro]

UKIPs explanation about why Hofer lost:

Austrians have not been raped and murdered enough yet by foreigners.

http://mobil.derstandard.at/2000048920739/Farage-Intimus-Hofer-verlor-weilOesterreicher-noch-nicht-genug-Vergewaltigungen-und

Oh lovely.

[Middle-aged Europe]

UKIPs explanation about why Hofer lost:

Austrians have not been raped and murdered enough yet by foreigners.

http://mobil.derstandard.at/2000048920739/Farage-Intimus-Hofer-verlor-weilOesterreicher-noch-nicht-genug-Vergewaltigungen-und

Oh lovely.

Sore loser is being a sore loser. Sad!

[Phony Moderate]

Someone should tell them that it's not the most meaningful position in the world anyway.

[ApatheticAustrian]

@Phony: it is if you want to dismantle the EU and are going to be the strongest party after the next general election.

the president can put some major brakes on you.

[Tender Branson]

A district trend map between the two runoffs would be nice ...

For example Zell am See (where I live), trended a lot to VdB:

Hofer won the district with 58% in May, but only with 52.6% now - a swing of 5.4% for VdB.

That compares with only a 3.5% swing Austria-wide for VdB.

So, Zell am See had a 1.9 point trend to VdB ...

[rob in cal]

   Do we have the differences in the vote among non married vs married women?  In the US that's always a huge gap with married women much more likely to vote GOP.

[Tender Branson]

   Do we have the differences in the vote among non married vs married women?  In the US that's always a huge gap with married women much more likely to vote GOP.

Nope, that wasn't asked in the EWS.

[Tender Branson]

Funny "Daily Show" clip about the election:

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/7xxngr/the-daily-show-with-trevor-noah-austria-votes-against-nationalism

"Right-wing populism is sooooo 1930iiiiies."

[Tender Branson]

The election will be certified next Thursday and if nobody challenges the result within one week it will become official on Dec. 22

[Tender Branson]

The first poll after the Presidential election shows virtually no change in the support for parties:



"Who do you prefer as FPÖ-leader ?"

ALL voters: 63% Hofer, 37% Strache
FPÖ-voters only: 58% Hofer, 42% Strache

"Should President Van der Bellen swear in Strache as Chancellor after the next election if he forms a coalition with a parliamentary majority ?"

75% Yes, swear in a Chancellor Strache
25% No

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Hofer-besser-als-Strache/261658295

[rob in cal]

  I'm actually a bit surprised that a full 75% of voters say that Vdb should swear in a Strache cabinet if it came to that.  I would have thought that a higher % of voters would fall into the "FPO is one step away from a right-wing dictatorship" mind-set.

[Tender Branson]

  I'm actually a bit surprised that a full 75% of voters say that Vdb should swear in a Strache cabinet if it came to that.  I would have thought that a higher % of voters would fall into the "FPO is one step away from a right-wing dictatorship" mind-set.

Not that surprising ...

Why would Austrians be against a democratic election result in which Strache forms a working coalition with a parliamentary majority ?

Only the most die-hard Greens and Young Socialists and some within the Vienna-SPÖ would be opposed to this ...

[rob in cal]

  I guess I'm thinking that there is a broader anti-FPO at all costs part of the Austrian electorate. Btw, when is the next Austrian election, either on the land or city level?

[peterthlee]

Not familiar with Austrian politics, but I can tell you that from the past models, black-blue coalition is a meltdown. If the blue party did not capture more than half of National Council's seats (which is almost certain), the SPÖ, ÖVP and Greens (or the NEOs) would rally around Kern.
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You must be logged in to read this quote.

It translates to 'The coalition of SPÖ-ÖVP-Green party of Austria promotes priority of asylum seekers! Only the FPÖ stresses "Austria First"!'
From this, we could deduce that any black-blue or red-blue coalitions are not viable options.
Blue party could only be in power if they secure an absolute parliamentary majority.