Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[jaichind]

Any links to results itself when they come in ?

[jaichind]

Hofer (FPÖ)                         30 
Van der Bellen (Greens)       28
Griss (Indy)                         17
Hundstorfer (SPÖ)               14
Khol (ÖVP)                          10
Lugner (Indy)                       1

Polarization toward the top two candidates.  ÖVP voter tactical voting for Griss and FPÖ  and SPÖ voter tactical voting for Greens.  My rule of thumb is always bet on FPÖ doing better than their polling unless the populist Right vote is split between two viable candidates/parties.

I thought I was aggressive on FPÖ but even that was not enough

[jaichind]

I guess if I was Hofer I rater Van de Bellen comes in second versus Griss.  He makes for a easier second round opponent.

[jaichind]

37% for Hofer ?

Literally, WTF ?

Only 11% for ÖVP should be part of the answer.

[jaichind]

Looks like all the anti-open border immigration vote went to Hofer. 

[jaichind]

The race for the 2nd runoff spot is pretty tight, but I'd give the edge to VdB over Griss because the Greens historically do well with postal ballots.

And in this case, Hofer will be elected the next President over Van der Bellen.

If that takes place ÖVP will be finished and FPÖ will take over as THE party of the center-right.

Hope Merkel is paying attention.

[jaichind]

Griss (Indy) does not endorse either Hofer or VdB yet, when asked by the ORF guy.

Does she concede defeat?

[jaichind]

Interesting that Hofer slightly under-performed his exit polls numbers.  One would expect him to over-perform.

[jaichind]

In retrospect ÖVP should have worked out a deal with SPÖ to present a joint candidate.  They could have perhaps moved into second place and then beat Hofer in the second round.

[jaichind]

Only poll I can find on second round was from early april

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Van-der-Bellen-nur-knapp-vor-Hofer/230748681

Which had

Hofer (FPÖ)                         23  
Van der Bellen (Greens)       26
Griss (Indy)                         21

and had for second round Hofer vs Van der Bellen

Hofer (FPÖ)                         48  
Van der Bellen (Greens)       52

If so then Hofer has a good 50/50 shot if not better at winning based on this poll.  My sense is that he should be the underdog.  Him coming in so strong on the first round will most likely scare passive center-left voters to come out in the second round to vote in large numbers.

[jaichind]

Looks like SPÖ and ÖVP came in at a near tie with both at 11.18%

[jaichind]

I also don't understand how the polls were so bad ...

It seems the polls were always fishy.   If FPÖ as a party is polling in the low 30s I do not see why Hofer  would poll in the low to mid 20s.  None of the other candidates seemed that they would be effective at attracting the FPÖ voter.

[jaichind]

Clearly, unlike Germany, denazification failed.

No idea why you would say this.  Hofer position on immigration, if that were the only issue in an election, would get 90%+ of the vote in places like Taiwan Province (ROC), where I am from, Japan and ROK.  

[jaichind]

If Hofer does win will he follow through on this threat to call new elections for the Parliment?

[jaichind]

Interesting that so many of Team Stronach 2013 voters went to Griss.   I guess for the second round they will vote Hofer.  The other bloc of votes that Hofer will go after will be Khol voters of course.  It seems unlikely NEOS voters for Griss will go Hofer. 

[jaichind]

The other bloc of votes that Hofer will go after will be Khol voters of course.

Which will be harder than it seems. There exists a decent section of right-wing (leaving aside the remaining moderates, who would never consider Hofer anyway) ÖVP voters - and they are loyal ÖVP voters, so they will be disproportionately represented among Khol voters - who thinks the FPÖ are dirty uncouth Plebeians with ideas above their station and would never vote for them. That doesn't mean they are prepared to vote for the left, of course - but if any candidate could convince them to do so, it would surely be Van der Bellen.

That sounds logical.  Of course for Van der Bellen, his job is to get the SPÖ vote, especially those that voted in 2013 but not in the first round of 2016 and hope that most of the Griss votes comes over to him.

[jaichind]

it is interesting how similar the second round of the Austrian Prez election is to the second round of the Peru Prez election.  Both were won by a large margin by a controversial candidate with a very high floor and a fairly low ceiling.   Looking at the gap between the front runner and the second place finisher from the first round (18.85% in Peru, 16.02% in Austria) seems to indicate that there is no way the front-runner can lose.  Yet the likelihood of higher turnout and the low ceiling for the said front-runner makes it very possible for such an unlikely upset to take place in the second round.  As I commented in the Peru thread, I could not find any cases of a two round election where such a deficit was made up.   I was given a couple of examples where a greater deficit was made up but they are all based on extreme ethnic polarization which does not seem to be present in either Peru or Austria.

[jaichind]

   I wonder if the reason Hofer did so well among young men is the fact that such a huge percentage of the migrants are young men as well.  Austrian younger men could view them as a double threat, first off in the job market, second off in the marriage/relationship market, as potential rivals for both jobs and women.  If the majority of migrants coming to Austria were young attractive Ukrainian women fleeing conflict there, or Thai cocktail hostesses fleeing Moslem extremists, or Brazilian supermodels fleeing the Zika virus, perhaps we wouldn't have such a support spike for Hofer among this electorate.
   While Hofer won over 50%, I bet among working class young men he did even better.  Perhaps a campaign slogan for him in the runoff could be "Young Austrian men, with Hofer you stand a better chance of getting paid and getting laid".

Could also be that  Hofer  himself is easily the youngest of all the candidates.

[jaichind]

Will there be exit polls like last time? And given the record postal vote will the exit polls try to take into account of postal votes ?

[jaichind]

Map of results (w/o postal vote I assume) I found online

[jaichind]

Any links to the total count which includes election day numbers plus postal votes as they come in ?

[jaichind]

Given how close this election was, if the Kern regime does not do well I can see a PFO tidal wave in 2018 since now Van der Bellen and Kern will be tied at the hip.  

[jaichind]

*VAN DER BELLEN HAS 13K VOTE LEAD, 4 DISTRICTS YET TO DECLARE, DIE PRESSE SAYS

[jaichind]

Looks like the fix is in.

I really doubt it. As much as I tend to back Hofer (or frankly anyone over a Green candidate) I do not see why the system will block his victory.  In fact, having Hofer win might make it more likely that PFO might  implode if he were to mess up.  The Prez in Austria is fairly ceremonial.  If the fix is in it is most more likely they will do it in 2018.  But if Hofer were to narrowly lose  which he did in this case it will most likely energize the PFO vote in 2018 especially if the overall political climate does not improve.

In the same way I back Trump but ideally I want him to lose narrowly to Clinton.  2018 will be a massacre for the Dems in 2018 if Clinton were to win narrowly with no coattails.   

[jaichind]

In the same way I back Trump but ideally I want him to lose narrowly to Clinton.  2018 will be a massacre for the Dems in 2018 if Clinton were to win narrowly with no coattails.   

Except that in Austria the parliament is the big prize, but in the US the White House is the big prize.

Yes, but for the policies I care about, mostly spending priorities, the Congressional control is just as importing as Prez.  But yes, for your point is valid in the generic sense.