I estimated that 750K absentee ballots will be counted today, the Interior Ministry says 740K.
That's because I did not take into account the fact that some people requested one but did not mail it back but instead cast their vote in any precint. With an absentee ballot you can vote in every precinct. And this small portion of absentee ballots is already counted on election day with the other votes.
This means the magic number for vdb is exactly 60%
Yepp.
I'm wondering what impact the additional 200k people will have who did not postal vote in round 1.
Like someone said before Hofer could benefit from a higher postal vote because a higher number would usually be less lopsided for the Left ...
Or VdB benefits because of a surge in center-leftist voters ...
I am not an expert in Austrian politics but somehow i doubt that in a runoff 50:50 election, one candidate will get over 60% of the mail votes when in the "normal" voting he got 48.1%. IMO the maximum for VdB will be 58% of those votes. But we will see shortly...