Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Cranberry]

If this trend continues, maybe we could see ÖVP and Greens on par in a few years (let's hope so at least )

[Cranberry]

You just got to love Armin Wolf

[Cranberry]

Is it me, or does a candidate jointly backed by FPO and NEOS seem absurd?

Oh not at all, it is pretty strange.

Mainly they both did out of lack of better options. NEOS don't have any personal assets they could send in for the presidential race yet - parties usually nominate some experienced elder statesman type, and NEOS are just to young for having that.

FPÖ nominations on the other hand usually turn out to be a disaster because you can absolutely sure that the backbencher they send in this time has some sort of racist/xenohob/islamophob/bigoted/anti-semite choose whatever you want comment on his facebook page or wherever; so they decided to avert that this time by backing the "harmless" Griss.

[Cranberry]

How common are OVP-Grune coalitions? In many countries, they are more or less stalking horses or vassals of the main left party. Is Austria the exception?

There are currently three ÖVP-Grüne coalitions (Tyrol, Salzburg and Vorarlberg) and one SPÖ-ÖVP-Grüne coalition (Carinthia) on the state level. There used to be one more in Upper Austria, but it lost their majority in the elections in September. As can be seen from this, they are basically only existent in the West, which is partly due to the reason that the Greens are considered significantly more conservative in these areas. The Austrian Greens arose in the eighties from two smaller green parties (one, the ALÖ stemming from the left and largely former SPÖ supporters; while the other, the VGÖ being a party coming mainly from the ÖVP and more conservative side), and still today, the Greens in Austria in general, but particularly in the West, are considered a tad more conservative and a bit less leftist than in other European nations, which may be one of the reasons they are one of the strongest, if not the actually strongest, green parties in Europe.

[Cranberry]

How common are OVP-Grune coalitions? In many countries, they are more or less stalking horses or vassals of the main left party. Is Austria the exception?

There are currently three ÖVP-Grüne coalitions (Tyrol, Salzburg and Vorarlberg) and one SPÖ-ÖVP-Grüne coalition (Carinthia) on the state level. There used to be one more in Upper Austria, but it lost their majority in the elections in September. As can be seen from this, they are basically only existent in the West, which is partly due to the reason that the Greens are considered significantly more conservative in these areas. The Austrian Greens arose in the eighties from two smaller green parties (one, the ALÖ stemming from the left and largely former SPÖ supporters; while the other, the VGÖ being a party coming mainly from the ÖVP and more conservative side), and still today, the Greens in Austria in general, but particularly in the West, are considered a tad more conservative and a bit less leftist than in other European nations, which may be one of the reasons they are one of the strongest, if not the actually strongest, green parties in Europe.

Which is of course also a reason why they are alienating some of their more centrist base voters (= people like me), with their ridiculous positions on asylum seekers/immigration and their moral-apostle-like "we need to save/import the whole world" attitude. No wonder the Greens made no polling gains in the recent years ... (don't get me wrong, I will still vote for them, but they are increasingly pissing off 10-30% of their potential voters).

To be fair though, Tender, I have never met a Green voter under 40 that has views similar to you on certain issues. It is true that the Green Party of today certainly has moved to the left a bit, but their voting share is consistent, so it seems that they gain a "naive left-leftist" for every Tender

[Cranberry]

https://www.parlament.gv.at/WWER/NR/SITZPLANNR/index.shtml

I wonder why FPO: sits to the left compared to O:VP?

Comes from the times of bipartisanism and Proporz, I guess, when the ÖVP was the party of the right, the SPÖ the one of the left, and the handful of VdU/FPÖ-MPs would just sit inbetween the two.

Left-right seating in parliament isn't that significant in Austria though. Left to right it currently is SPÖ-NEOS-Team Stronach-Greens-FPÖ-ÖVP, which obviously doesn't correlate with the positioning of the parties on the left-right axis (which would be more like Greens/SPÖ-NEOS-ÖVP/TS-FPÖ)

[Cranberry]

While probably unlikely, a Hundstorfer vs VdB runoff would be a great sight!

[Cranberry]

So basically, at least at present, large amounts of conservatives (and almost all NEOS supporters, though a few might go for Griss) are planning to vote for VdB. (Anecdotally, this matches up - even a rather posh friend who wants to privatise hospitals and schools(!) says she will vote for him, although support for him will of course be higher here in Vienna.)

That has been my experience as well. Van der Bellen just has his own individual appeal for voters in the Bildungsbürger-spectrum ("educated bourgeoisie" seems not quite a right translation for that, and I can't think of any other, I'm afraid), which is not entirely a surprise given his background and public image. This seems to be not just a Vienna-phenomenon however, aross, even here in rural Tirol I've heard people say they would vote for VdB that I would have never imagined - this even with Khol as a Tyrolean as ÖVP-candidate.

[Cranberry]

Your analysis is absolutely great, aross. I hope you stick around here!

Thanks, I'm flattered!

So basically, at least at present, large amounts of conservatives (and almost all NEOS supporters, though a few might go for Griss) are planning to vote for VdB. (Anecdotally, this matches up - even a rather posh friend who wants to privatise hospitals and schools(!) says she will vote for him, although support for him will of course be higher here in Vienna.)

That has been my experience as well. Van der Bellen just has his own individual appeal for voters in the Bildungsbürger-spectrum ("educated bourgeoisie" seems not quite a right translation for that, and I can't think of any other, I'm afraid), which is not entirely a surprise given his background and public image. This seems to be not just a Vienna-phenomenon however, aross, even here in rural Tirol I've heard people say they would vote for VdB that I would have never imagined - this even with Khol as a Tyrolean as ÖVP-candidate.

Intellectual bourgeoisie, perhaps? Of course, most Viennese would insist such a thing does not exist in Tyrol
Doesn't Van der Bellen have some sort of connection with Tyrol? Is that noticeable?
EDIT: Yes, not only did he study there as I thought, but he in fact grew up in rural Tyrol.

I've got more of a problem with "bourgeoisie", as that entails that sort of wealthy big fat-cat capitalist image which the sort of people I wanted to describe not necessarily have.
Haha - I admit it's sometimes hard to find, but then again, if you look at certain areas of Vienna, even the most hick-ish place in the upper Paznaun or wherever seems like an intellectual paradise compared to that

Yes, VdB, as every Tyrolean Green will be more than eager to tell you, grew up here (in fact just half an hour from my home!); though he by now is perceived completely as a Viennese (which is however anyone that does not talk in our sacred tongue and whose ks do not leave his/her throats completely sore, so not unique to him ), which if anything has always a negative effect on popularity. I would guess his wider-than-usual popularity is a pretty even phenomenon everywhere, however, not really confined to Tirol as his youth home. We can however maybe expect an expenonential growth in Green support in municipalities like Faggen, Fendels or Kaunerberg, having him score three instead of the usual one percent there

[Cranberry]

Your analysis is absolutely great, aross. I hope you stick around here!

Thanks, I'm flattered!

So basically, at least at present, large amounts of conservatives (and almost all NEOS supporters, though a few might go for Griss) are planning to vote for VdB. (Anecdotally, this matches up - even a rather posh friend who wants to privatise hospitals and schools(!) says she will vote for him, although support for him will of course be higher here in Vienna.)

That has been my experience as well. Van der Bellen just has his own individual appeal for voters in the Bildungsbürger-spectrum ("educated bourgeoisie" seems not quite a right translation for that, and I can't think of any other, I'm afraid), which is not entirely a surprise given his background and public image. This seems to be not just a Vienna-phenomenon however, aross, even here in rural Tirol I've heard people say they would vote for VdB that I would have never imagined - this even with Khol as a Tyrolean as ÖVP-candidate.

Intellectual bourgeoisie, perhaps? Of course, most Viennese would insist such a thing does not exist in Tyrol
Doesn't Van der Bellen have some sort of connection with Tyrol? Is that noticeable?
EDIT: Yes, not only did he study there as I thought, but he in fact grew up in rural Tyrol.

I've got more of a problem with "bourgeoisie", as that entails that sort of wealthy big fat-cat capitalist image which the sort of people I wanted to describe not necessarily have.
Haha - I admit it's sometimes hard to find, but then again, if you look at certain areas of Vienna, even the most hick-ish place in the upper Paznaun or wherever seems like an intellectual paradise compared to that

Yes, VdB, as every Tyrolean Green will be more than eager to tell you, grew up here (in fact just half an hour from my home!); though he by now is perceived completely as a Viennese (which is however anyone that does not talk in our sacred tongue and whose ks do not leave his/her throats completely sore, so not unique to him ), which if anything has always a negative effect on popularity. I would guess his wider-than-usual popularity is a pretty even phenomenon everywhere, however, not really confined to Tirol as his youth home. We can however maybe expect an expenonential growth in Green support in municipalities like Faggen, Fendels or Kaunerberg, having him score three instead of the usual one percent there

I definitely can't talk, I recently read that my district of Vienna has the second highest percentage of people in the city (4th in the country, IIRC) with no education beyond compulsory.

I had a feeling that might be the case, he is, after all, about as metropolitan as it gets. (in Austria, at least )

Speaking of elections in rural Tyrol, I found this rather funny result in one of the smallest municipalities of Austria a while back: https://wahlen.tirol.gv.at/gemeinderatswahl_2010/gemeinden/hinterhornbach.html
Only one vote separates the ÖVP Hinterhornbach and the ÖVP "Together for Hinterhornbach"! Truly a close and fascinating race. Don't let anyone tell you all politicians are the same!

Is it the tenth or the eleventh?

In regards to that Hinterhornbach result, I am actually quite amazed that the two candidates didn't share a last name
It's places like this that get as hick as possible as you can in Austria - the uppermost part of a side valley (Hornbachtal) of a side valley (Lechtal) of a remote part (Außerfern) of the most rural, hick state (Tirol) - kinda like the deepest Wyoming of Austria

[Cranberry]

Wow, I really didn't think of the twentieth. So Simmering has gone upwards in the last years, or is it Brigitennau (that's the 20th, right?) that's declined?

Ah yes, some frontier areas in the Waldviertel or the Südburgenland might dispute it for this title; but I guess remoteness and sheer distance has its role to play too, with that: when you're in Oberpullendorf or Gmünd or wherever, you're in Vienna or Graz in what, an hour? From Hinterhornbach, you'll be glad if you've reached Reutte (its BH) at that point

[Cranberry]

One question, would Hofer be a bad president from your point of view?

I don't know if you asked this question specifically to Tender, but if not, maybe you'll want to hear my POV as well.

Yes, Hofer would be a bad president for me - reasons for that are many, but among a few of them there is him being a member of the FPÖ (and my personal distaste against the FPÖ has not only to do with their policies but I guess even more with their associations into certain, shall we call them dubious. corners), his associations with the Burschenschaften and thus his pandering to paleo-German-nationalistic sentiments, and lastly, some of his just hilarious views regarding to his "special portfolio" in parliament, ecological issues. A man that apparently seriously believes the various Chemtrails-conspiracies is bad enough as such, but as the highest public representative of the Republic? He would be nothing but an international disgrace.

[Cranberry]

There are 2 ways of how to see this:

A) Is he competent enough to serve as President ? Yes, definitely.

Someone who believes in chemtrails? This is debatable, but I wouldn't say someone like that would be competent to be the head of state of a country.

Everyone has his or her own fetish I guess ... And for Hofer, it's the chemtrails.

It's not like a believe in chemtrails would hinder his ability to host foreign guests, travel abroad and get trade deals for Austrian companies, visit some events and give speeches here and then - which is what the Austrian President usually does. Not talk about chemtrails.

Well, since he believes in chemtrails, would he even step on a plane to travel abroad?

[Cranberry]

Basically, there is no point in holding elections anywhere in Tyrol safe for like five "bigger" (for Tyrolean standards) cities on the local level, at all; because the race anywhere but in those is all but a done deal. The ÖVP is just omipotent basically everywhwere. There are some very small pockets of heavily concentrated SPÖ support in four or five industrial towns in the east (the "Unterland" or "lower country"), and three towns in the west (the "Oberland" or "upper country") where many people working for the national railways settle. There is St. Jakob im Defreggental which has an FPÖ mayor because that mayor used to be the state party's leader and is supposedly somehow popular. The rest is black country through and through.

Gramais, as Tender mentioned, is not holding any elections at all, a commissioner from the state government will conduct business there, I guess (not that the many people of Austria's smallest municipality will need much of that); while there are numerous other towns, especially in the remote Reutte district, that will have just one list for the council and just one candidate for the mayor's office. It is quite hard to find enough people running for election in such small towns, that are actually no more than hamlets - there are 3 municipalities with less than 100 people and 9 with less than 300 in Reutte district alone - because the councils are required to have nine councillors at minimum. It somehow shows you the stupidity of Tyrol's local government structure when you have nine councillors plus one mayor represent 51 people, but then again, all of them will be from the ÖVP, so our state government will never even think about that.

[Cranberry]

Basically, there is no point in holding elections anywhere in Tyrol safe for like five "bigger" (for Tyrolean standards) cities on the local level, at all; because the race anywhere but in those is all but a done deal. The ÖVP is just omipotent basically everywhwere. There are some very small pockets of heavily concentrated SPÖ support in four or five industrial towns in the east (the "Unterland" or "lower country"), and three towns in the west (the "Oberland" or "upper country") where many people working for the national railways settle. There is St. Jakob im Defreggental which has an FPÖ mayor because that mayor used to be the state party's leader and is supposedly somehow popular. The rest is black country through and through.

Gramais, as Tender mentioned, is not holding any elections at all, a commissioner from the state government will conduct business there, I guess (not that the many people of Austria's smallest municipality will need much of that); while there are numerous other towns, especially in the remote Reutte district, that will have just one list for the council and just one candidate for the mayor's office. It is quite hard to find enough people running for election in such small towns, that are actually no more than hamlets - there are 3 municipalities with less than 100 people and 9 with less than 300 in Reutte district alone - because the councils are required to have nine councillors at minimum. It somehow shows you the stupidity of Tyrol's local government structure when you have nine councillors plus one mayor represent 51 people, but then again, all of them will be from the ÖVP, so our state government will never even think about that.

1) There are 7 "big" cities in Tyrol with more than 10.000 people (+Innsbruck of course with over 130.000 people). And another 6 with more than 8.000 people, so I would classify these 13 as "the ones to watch" today. As for the other 264 towns: Who cares ?

Still, there is not much of a race in a number of those "bigger" cities - Imst, for example is strongly ÖVP, Telfs is somewhat between the official ÖVP candidate and an ÖVP-near independent incumbent mayor, Kufstein and Schwaz are held by ÖVP mayors and will probably continue to do so, and so on...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The mayor & city council will simply remain in office for another term.
[/quote]

Oh, okay, didn't know that. Still all the same to them, most probably.

[Cranberry]

Is that woman to his right Mikl-Leitner?

[Cranberry]

Postal ballots seem to have been sent out in the last days, we got ours yesterday (and once they reach rural Tyrol they must be properly everywhere), and I can proudly report to have cast my ballot for Mr. Van der Bellen. Wouldn't exactly be a miracle if me and my mum's votes for him remain the only ones in my village - but postal ballots are reported only by district level, and Imst district is big enough for there to be a few more, I should wager

[Cranberry]

Hmm ... maybe something like this ?

This is assuming a rather close race, with VdB beating Hofer by about 54-46 or something.

Turnout could be higher than in Round 1, maybe between 70-75%.

Let's see if Cranberry agrees or not ...

Responding to that in here, where it makes more sense.

I have to admit, Tender, your map does not make too much sense to me. It seems you just added up places of strong SPÖ support to VdB and places that usually vote ÖVP to Hofer; but that is just not at all what is going to happen in the case of such a run-off. Why on earth should a place like Mürzzuschlag vote for a former uni professor clearly over a guy from a party that styles itsself as the new worker's party (and clearly has strong reasonance in many of the places you have coloured in green here - nearly all of the Obersteiermark, for example, or a large part of the Salzkammergut)? Van der Bellen's strengths will imo lie in the big cities - Vienna, Graz, Innsbruck, Salzburg, Bregenz; less so Linz and Klagenfurt - and the suburbs, so all of the XY-Land or XY-Umgebung districts, as well as southeastern NÖ / northern Burgenland. Hofer on the other hand will do good in the old industrial areas - Obersteiermark, southern OÖ/NÖ, Carinthia - and in the peripheral areas.

Also, why should Bezirk Gmünd vote for VdB?

[Cranberry]

Watched just parts of it, but from what I saw, Khol and Hofer both didn't really impress much. Hofer came across as incredibly patronising and unlikeable, especially against Hundstorfer ("every time you speak, I gain voters"), really to an extent that the word Arschloch perfectly described his demeanour; and Khol in my eyes seemed a bit unorganised and not superbly prepared. Hundstorfer on the other hand seemed quite in a pissy mood and generally distant. Griss wasn't bad in my eyes, except for her typical perception problem which is being seen as some bland, generic, grey wallflower; but that's nothing new, and she did no bad job in my eyes. Van der Bellen was the same in that he delivered exactly what you would expect of him - his typical slow, considerate, eloquent way of speaking interrupted by the occasional smoking-caused coughing, which to some (including yours truly) seems sympathetic and considerate, while to others might seem arrogant and add to his professorial image.

[Cranberry]

Is that region of Austria not effected to a large extent by migration flux? this results are odd I would have expected FPÖ to rise

Local elections, especially ones that are "out of turn", meaning not together with the ones in the rest of the state, are usually not at all affected by national trends, local issues play a far greater role there. I also assume that the SPÖ-mayor there sucessfuly tried to adopt a FPÖ-light "tough-on-refugees" policy, which would kind of fit for the sad, desperate, horrible place St. Pölten is.

[Cranberry]

Alright, my (probably crappy) prediction for Sunday:

Chainsmoker - 23%
Smiling Nazi - 23%
Wallflower - 21%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 12%
Clown - 5%

Run-off predictions come only when it's clear who will be in it.

[Cranberry]

Alright, my (probably crappy) prediction for Sunday:

Chainsmoker - 23%
Smiling Nazi - 23%
Wallflower - 21%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 12%
Clown - 5%

Run-off predictions come only when it's clear who will be in it.

Smiling Nazi - 24%
Great guy I'd definitely vote for!  - 22%
Wallflower - 19%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 15%
Clown - 4%

If you are going to empty-quote me, try to do it a little less passive-aggressive next time, dankeschön.

[Cranberry]

Alright, my (probably crappy) prediction for Sunday:

Chainsmoker - 23%
Smiling Nazi - 23%
Wallflower - 21%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 12%
Clown - 5%

Run-off predictions come only when it's clear who will be in it.

Smiling Nazi - 24%
Great guy I'd definitely vote for!  - 22%
Wallflower - 19%
Comrade pin-stripe - 16%
Nazi-Enabler - 15%
Clown - 4%

If you are going to empty-quote me, try to do it a little less passive-aggressive next time, dankeschön.

Just do as most people, ignore Bigot21.

Is not swearing in a majority goverment because of a personal grudge towards a party not anti democratic?

A) The FPÖ is never getting elected to a majority government of their own. Not going to happen, honey, so no point in discussing a hypothetical with a .0% chance of happening.
B) If the FPÖ in '18 ends up with, say, 35% and they wanted to form government, there would still be 75% of the population NOT voting for those literal Nazis. In contrast, Van der Bellen would, in the eventually of being elected president, have an absolute majority of 50% of the population behind him.

So maybe next time, if you have no clue about stuff, shut the f up.

[Cranberry]

The bad weather here in the West (it actually snowed a couple hours ago and now it's raining, with temps around 0-5°C) might actually be too bad for voting and people might stay home.

I don't know which west you are talking about, but here in Western Tirol the weather isn't actually too bad, right now there's even the sun out. Then again, you live out in Salzburg and not in the "proper" West

On a more relevant note, polls have closed at 4pm in all major cities except Innsbruck and Vienna. With most rural municipalities already closing their polls earlier (starting at 11am), and the whole state of Vorarlberg closing polls at 1pm, this means that the first projections should already have a sizeable chunk of counted votes behind it, and thus be quite accurate.

[Cranberry]

Some "fun" activity for the waiting until 5pm - try to guess which candidate will top the polls in which state.

This election will be extremely interesting to watch on psephological grounds - as the hegemony of SPÖ/ÖVP will truly be broken for the first time (@Tender: really interesting article on that in Saturday's Presse, you should check that out), the map will look truly novel and it will be interesting to see new regional patterns emerge.

Vorarlberg: the probable weakness of Khol leaves a void in this ÖVP-stronghold, but the FPÖ is traditionally strong out there, so it will probably be Hofer at #1
Tirol: here we usually have quite similar results as in Vbg, maybe a little weaker FPÖ; Innsbruck and its commuter belt is also one of the strongest Greens region in all of Austria; so I'll just go out and say VdB has a shot of winning my home state (probably just me wishing )
Carinthia: obvious Hofer win
Styria: Hofer will probably win there, though I'd guess Griss has one of her strongest showings here
Salzburg: will probably be quite similar to the final result in Austria at-large, so I'm guessing whoever wins Salzburg turns out first... so, erh, Sascha?
OÖ: probably going for Hofer, I guess
NÖ: hard to say, ÖVP and SPÖ are both usually stronger here than elsewhere, so similar to Salzburg, I'll say whoever wins nationally wins NÖ as well
Burgenland: Hofer
Vienna: Hundstorfer and Lugner will both have their strongest showings here, but I should guess VdB has enough support among the Bürgerlichen Lager to win the capital