Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Pandaguineapig]

Hofer is up by around 4%, so mail ballots would have to break heavily for vdb to win

[Pandaguineapig]

This could be 50-50 after mail, lol this could be Austria's version of the 2000 election

[Pandaguineapig]

I estimated that 750K absentee ballots will be counted today, the Interior Ministry says 740K.

That's because I did not take into account the fact that some people requested one but did not mail it back but instead cast their vote in any precint. With an absentee ballot you can vote in every precinct. And this small portion of absentee ballots is already counted on election day with the other votes.

This means the magic number for vdb is exactly 60%

[Pandaguineapig]

Are there any debates or conventions or anything that could change the nature of the race? I feel like US politics have been studied down to a science but I know nothing of Austrian politics.

What would change if Hofer assumed the presidency?

From what I understand the Austrian presidency is mostly ceremonial, it would mostly be a signal of a strong surge in the Austrian right and a potential FPO government in the next parliamentary election

[Pandaguineapig]

Not sure if there has been actual movement towards hofer or if polls are overestimating him again